2019 Basel Final - (1.) Roger Federer vs. (WC) Alex de Minaur

Who will win the 2019 Basel final?

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Enceladus

Enceladus

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Federer will aim to win the jubilee 10th title from Basel and 103rd title from the ATP Tour. Will Alex de Minaur stop him, who won all the finals, into which he advanced this year??
 
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Federer may have a few nerves simply because they have never played one another before. Anyone think De Minaur’s game will spell any trouble? I haven’t followed the youngster enough to know much at all about how he plays, but he does seem to have quite a bit of variety built in.
 
Rafa.the.Magnificent said:
Federer may have a few nerves simply because they have never played one another before. Anyone think De Minaur’s game will spell any trouble? I haven’t followed the youngster enough to know much at all about how he plays, but he does seem to have quite a bit of variety built in.
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He just runs a lot and defends well.

Federer has to be a mug to lose this, IMO.
 
Hmmm. De Minaur with zero unforced errors in the last two sets against Opelka. He is playing some pretty clean tennis. We'll see if he can play that cleanly against Federer, who will do more than just bash the ball at him. Worth watching.
 
So happy to see my boy Alex make it to another final! (: Here's hoping he can win it! (: Rooting for him a million percent! (: (: (:
 
Bukmeikara said:
An interesting fact, Federer has defeated 9 different opponents for his titles in Basel - Copil, Del Potro, Nadal, Goffin, Djokovic, Nishikori, Gonzalez, Nalbandian, Nieminen. De Minaur is in a bad spot :D
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He lost to 4 different opponents in 5 finals - Enqvist 2000, Henman 2001, Djokovic 2009, Del Potro 2012, Del Potro 2013. Maybe he's due for another? :cool:
 
Rafa.the.Magnificent said:
Federer may have a few nerves simply because they have never played one another before. Anyone think De Minaur’s game will spell any trouble? I haven’t followed the youngster enough to know much at all about how he plays, but he does seem to have quite a bit of variety built in.
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at federer’s age i feel he is more vulnerable to power baseliners than counter punchers
 
If Federer is having a good day he will take it in 2, if he isn't ADM is in for a chance. When Federer is off and his opponent runs him around (which ADM is an expert at doing) he generally is in a bit of trouble.
 
mike danny said:
Federer has to be a mug to lose this, IMO.
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While I agree, after Fed's numerous collapses in the past 10 years, I am wary of ever penciling him for the win. Fed has lost to Del Po two years in a row in a Basel final (2013 and 2014) and he was playing very well in 2014. Fed should win this in his sleep, but I'm just never confident of his form anymore. :cry:
 
BeatlesFan said:
While I agree, after Fed's numerous collapses in the past 10 years, I am wary of ever penciling him for the win. Fed has lost to Del Po two years in a row in a Basel final (2013 and 2014) and he was playing very well in 2014. Fed should win this in his sleep, but I'm just never confident of his form anymore. :cry:
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JMDP was 2012-13. fedr won 2014 when recovered from his worst year ever, beating Goffin in the final 2&2.
 
BeatlesFan said:
While I agree, after Fed's numerous collapses in the past 10 years, I am wary of ever penciling him for the win. Fed has lost to Del Po two years in a row in a Basel final (2013 and 2014) and he was playing very well in 2014. Fed should win this in his sleep, but I'm just never confident of his form anymore. :cry:
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Fed got this, come on
 
BeatlesFan said:
While I agree, after Fed's numerous collapses in the past 10 years, I am wary of ever penciling him for the win. Fed has lost to Del Po two years in a row in a Basel final (2013 and 2014) and he was playing very well in 2014. Fed should win this in his sleep, but I'm just never confident of his form anymore. :cry:
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I think he lost to delpo in 2012& 2013, Beatles.
In 2014, he took down goffin to claim the title
 
Just the fact the ADM had to go three sets with Opelka, instead of winning in straights, leads me to believe an easy win for Fed. Not because ADM is tired, it's because it took 3 sets to beat Opelka, you have to be able to beat lower ranked players easily to beat a top 3 player.... Fed can beat Opelka in his sleep. ADM doesn't have any shots that can hurt Fed, just the incredible wheels. ADM won't be able to push his way to victory against Fed like he did with Opelka.
 
mike danny said:
He just runs a lot and defends well.

Federer has to be a mug to lose this, IMO.
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coloskier said:
Just the fact the ADM had to go three sets with Opelka, instead of winning in straights, leads me to believe an easy win for Fed. Not because ADM is tired, it's because it took 3 sets to beat Opelka, you have to be able to beat lower ranked players easily to beat a top 3 player.... Fed can beat Opelka in his sleep. ADM doesn't have any shots that can hurt Fed, just the incredible wheels. ADM won't be able to push his way to victory against Fed like he did with Opelka.
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I don't see how the Demon wins this either. He's come back from his hip injury in spurts of good play and then back to ordinary. Before this Alex had developed a hard forehand which gives him a bit of a weapon. He played well in Atlanta and won without facing a breakpoint largely due to the fast conditions making his serve a bit bigger and that is the case in Base. His serve has surprised me with how good its been this year given his height that bodes well for his long term aspirations to perhaps win a slam and certainly Masters events.

Just took a peak at his hard court stats and I'm a bit shocked to see him at 52.8% of points won, but only 38.0% on return with a surprising 68.1% on serve. That is a big number for a player who runs a lot and defends well. His Sydney win before the injury clocked in at a respectable 54.8% points won with Atlanta at a very strong 56.5%. His recent level since Wimbledon has him with 53.1% points won, but to my eyes he's been erratic. This week is 54.2% so nothing jaw dropping, but frankly I expected to see him closer to 51% and 53% is quite dangerous if the match up favors the Demon.

The one negative and I'd blame his hip issue is 2nd return numbers are down from 2018's 53.9% to a paltry 50.2%. (Sydney this year was 53.0%), so were probably not seeing the Demon's best returning in 2019 which makes his overall numbers all the more impressive.

Visualizing the match I think if Fed does well enough on first serve that the Demon's lackluster first return will not trouble the mighty Federe. There is little doubt Fed will get quite a few first returns in play, but will he prevail in these neutral rallies? The Demon is not great at providing his own pace and thrives off counter punching and trying to take time away from his opponents. Fed won't like this, but I suspect he'll deploy his short slice to force the flatter hitting De Minaur into net and these approaches are unlikely to work well with the flat shot hit from well below the net.:cry: The only hope I see is the vague similarities with Delpo.

Fed wins this comfortably in 2 sets unless the Demon exorcises his returning woes and puts on a stellar performance.
 
This is one of those match or title where a win means very little, it's a paltry 500.

But a loss would be devastating
 
coloskier said:
Just the fact the ADM had to go three sets with Opelka, instead of winning in straights, leads me to believe an easy win for Fed. Not because ADM is tired, it's because it took 3 sets to beat Opelka, you have to be able to beat lower ranked players easily to beat a top 3 player.... Fed can beat Opelka in his sleep. ADM doesn't have any shots that can hurt Fed, just the incredible wheels. ADM won't be able to push his way to victory against Fed like he did with Opelka.
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Do you know who Opelka is? Your logic is something along the lines "Fed would win because it's a full moon"
 
BeatlesFan said:
While I agree, after Fed's numerous collapses in the past 10 years, I am wary of ever penciling him for the win. Fed has lost to Del Po two years in a row in a Basel final (2013 and 2014) and he was playing very well in 2014. Fed should win this in his sleep, but I'm just never confident of his form anymore. :cry:
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It was 2012, not 2014. In 2014 he demolished Goffin.

And in 2012, he was due for a loss against Delpo eventually.
 
I am an eternal optimist and believe that my boy Alex is going to win today! (: Come on, Alex! (:
 
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