2019 Madrid QF: Rafael Nadal [2] vs Stan Wawrinka

Winner?

  • Nadal in 2

  • Nadal in 3

  • Wawrinka in 2

  • Wawrinka in 3

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Yugram

Yugram

Legend
17-3 H2H, last win for Wawrinka was back in Paris 2015. There are some doubts about Rafa’s form recently though.

Will the King prevail and advance to the SF?

stan-wawrinka-the-match-against-rafael-nadal-will-be-complicated.jpg
 
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IowaGuy

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
Stan has been serving well lately, hopefully will get some free points on serve (easy holds) letting him take some chances on Nadal's service games.
 
chjtennis

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Nadal will win either of Madrid or Rome. He looks good here and has a strong chance to win Madrid. I think Nadal in 2.
 
MeatTornado

MeatTornado

Talk Tennis Guru
Backspin1183 said:
Nadal's form was ridiculously good in the 2017 clay season. He is not as good now and Stanimal is playing good again. So, I expect a tough fought match between them.
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They've both declined, but Rafa's still #2 in the world for a reason. Meanwhile Stan still can't get seeded at big tournaments.

He's not playing good again. He has blips where you think you can see the Stanimal emerging, but a day later it's gone.
 
R

rhoder

Rookie
Stan’s backhand when he is pushed back does not have the same consistent depth as it once had looking at the Nishikori match. If Rafa steps on on those weaker shots, Stan may be in for a tough time
 
mightyjeditribble

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
I'd like to see Stan back near his best, and give Rafa a good match at least. Sadly, he is not the youngest anymore, so the chance that he will be able to exploit any drop-off that Nadal may have had on clay seems quite small.

Probably Nadal in 2. Let's see.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
chjtennis said:
Nadal will win either of Madrid or Rome. He looks good here and has a strong chance to win Madrid. I think Nadal in 2.
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I don't know. If he loses here in Madrid, not sure he will be winning Rome then. His confidence will have taken a massive hit by then, and other players will smell blood in the water.
 
chjtennis

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Hitman said:
I don't know. If he loses here in Madrid, not sure he will be winning Rome then. His confidence will have taken a massive hit by then, and other players will smell blood in the water.
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Well, there is a chance for Nadal to go to RG empty handed this year, I can't deny that, but I think he still has a good chance to win at least 1 title on clay before RG. Just based on the rule of average. However, the scenario you mentioned is also possible.

I also think if Nadal goes into RG without any titles on clay, that means he will have played less matches leading to FO, and that may not be necessarily too bad for him. Obviously, he won't be as confident, but he will still fight until the end, and with his heavy topspin and wide Philippe Chatrier, you just never know.
 
S

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
chjtennis said:
Well, there is a chance for Nadal to go to RG empty handed this year, I can't deny that, but I think he still has a good chance to win at least 1 title on clay before RG. Just based on the rule of average. However, the scenario you mentioned is also possible.

I also think if Nadal goes into RG without any titles on clay, that means he will have played less matches leading to FO, and that may not be necessarily too bad for him. Obviously, he won't be as confident, but he will still fight until the end, and with his heavy topspin and wide Philippe Chatrier, you just never know.
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I heard they changed the court though. I don't know what exactly they did there...
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
chjtennis said:
Well, there is a chance for Nadal to go to RG empty handed this year, I can't deny that, but I think he still has a good chance to win at least 1 title on clay before RG. Just based on the rule of average. However, the scenario you mentioned is also possible.

I also think if Nadal goes into RG without any titles on clay, that means he will have played less matches leading to FO, and that may not be necessarily too bad for him. Obviously, he won't be as confident, but he will still fight until the end, and with his heavy topspin and wide Philippe Chatrier, you just never know.
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The last time Nadal went into RG without a single clay title to his name was 2015. And that year also, he played the final of Madrid, and after playing a great semi with Berdych just collapsed against Murray. He didn't even make the semis of Rome the following week. I understand your point, Nadal is the God of Clay, but the one thing he isn't the God of is turning it on after a series of losses, the way Federer can. He is the ultimate momentum player, and if he is heading into Rome having failed to win a single title on his fav surface up to then, not sure the belief will be resonating from his performance there, going by what I have seen from him in the past.
 
S

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Hitman said:
The last time Nadal went into RG without a single clay title to his name was 2015. And that year also, he played the final of Madrid, and after playing a great semi with Berdych just collapsed against Murray. He didn't even make the semis of Rome the following week. I understand your point, Nadal is the God of Clay, but the one thing he isn't the God of is turning it on after a series of losses, the way Federer can. He is the ultimate momentum player, and if he is heading into Rome having failed to win a single title on his fav surface up to then, not sure the belief will be resonating from his performance there, going by what I have seen from him in the past.
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This is true, though I can think of two exceptions: RG 2014 (I don't think this "win" over Nishikori could give him a lot of confidence) and USO 2017. Both times he was coming to the tournaments in terrible form but managed to improve and win.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
StrongRule said:
This is true, though I can think of two exceptions: RG 2014 (I don't think this "win" over Nishikori could give him a lot of confidence) and USO 2017. Both times he was coming to the tournaments in terrible form but managed to improve and win.
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Ultimately, Madrid 2014 was still a title, and he backed it up with a tight three set final to Djokovic in Rome. And not focusing on USO 2017 since that is a completely different slam on a different surface that Nadal is never the overwhelming favorite to win, so he can approach it with less pressure. RG is HIS domain, and heading into it with no momentum is not what he wants.
 
sbengte

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Hitman said:
Ultimately, Madrid 2014 was still a title, and he backed it up with a tight three set final to Djokovic in Rome. And not focusing on USO 2017 since that is a completely different slam on a different surface that Nadal is never the overwhelming favorite to win, and guaranteed to get the cakiest draws like one devoid of top 30, so he can approach it with less pressure. RG is HIS domain, and heading into it with no momentum is not what he wants.
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FTFY
 
RS92

RS92

Hall of Fame
Hitman said:
The last time Nadal went into RG without a single clay title to his name was 2015. And that year also, he played the final of Madrid, and after playing a great semi with Berdych just collapsed against Murray. He didn't even make the semis of Rome the following week. I understand your point, Nadal is the God of Clay, but the one thing he isn't the God of is turning it on after a series of losses, the way Federer can. He is the ultimate momentum player, and if he is heading into Rome having failed to win a single title on his fav surface up to then, not sure the belief will be resonating from his performance there, going by what I have seen from him in the past.
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He didn't win any of the good/important clay titles, but he did win in Buenos Aires back in February
 
Pheasant

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
I have Nadal in two easy sets; 6-4, 6-3, Nadal is starting to play much better. Stan is playing better too. But 80% Nadal destroys 80% Stan; maybe not quite as badly as 90% Nadal destroyed 90% Stan at RG a couple of years ago. But it should be an easy win for Nadal.
 
mike danny

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Pheasant said:
I have Nadal in two easy sets; 6-4, 6-3, Nadal is starting to play much better. Stan is playing better too. But 80% Nadal destroys 80% Stan; maybe not quite as badly as 90% Nadal destroyed 90% Stan at RG a couple of years ago. But it should be an easy win for Nadal.
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It wasn't 90% Stan at RG a couple of years ago.
 
ChaelAZ

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
If Stan is closer to 100%, and I hope he is, this match should have then been the final. Hoping for a big time match. Expect Nadal to pull it out, but expect it to be close.
 
mike danny

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Pheasant said:
That's right. Murray completely wore him out during the dog fight semi. Stan hasn't been the same ever since(bum knee, now rusty).
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Rafa would have still won in straights, but because of Stan's long SF, the final turned out to be a demolition.
 
MugOpponent

MugOpponent

Hall of Fame
Hitman said:
Ultimately, Madrid 2014 was still a title, and he backed it up with a tight three set final to Djokovic in Rome. And not focusing on USO 2017 since that is a completely different slam on a different surface that Nadal is never the overwhelming favorite to win, so he can approach it with less pressure. RG is HIS domain, and heading into it with no momentum is not what he wants.
Click to expand...


I think it's fair to say the MC/B version of Nadal isn't winning RG this year. I think he's looked quite a bit better in Madrid so far. This event could go any direction as Thiem/Djoker are formidable but even if Nadal doesn't win, I'm encouraged for Rome/RG based on what I've seen.
 
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