2020 Australian open final :- [5] Dominic Thiem v/s [2] Novak Djokovic

Match Result prediction poll


  • Total voters
    212
  • Poll closed .

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
@BeatlesFan - I see you in a magnanimous mood. 12% is too much. I would say close to 5% or less.
Djokovic has almost always won in straights in the Australian Open finals (except a couple of times).
You really think Thiem can do any better? The Austrian isn't even in the same stratosphere as the opponents Novak has beaten.
@TennisFan3 I see you've been in an ultra emphatic mood this week. ;) I would caution you because if Thiem wins (which I know you think is impossible, as you've repeatedly stated), it will come back to bite you with the trolls here. They'll mock your certainty for years to come. I would dial back on the aggressive attitude that not even God almighty can defeat Novak at the AO. I was 100% certain Fed would beat Del Po in the USO final, I was 100% certain Ivan would beat Mats in the '88 USO final and that type of hubris didn't work out so well. I was 95% sure Novak would never come back to winning slams once he had his mental breakdown in 2017 in the Pepe period. That sure was wrong!! I've since learned not to be that intransigent or certain since life has many vagaries and so does tennis.

I don't know what else to say, I would be an idiot to say Thiem doesn't have at least a 12% chance. Which gives Novak basically a 90% chance of winning. Thiem isn't Ryan Harrison or Donald Young and he's equally as fit as Novak. you say Domi has a 5% chance, I think 12%, let's not quibble over a 7% difference. There's plenty of people here who think Domi will take this in four. And maybe he will, let's watch the match first.
 

joekapa

Legend
@TennisFan3 I see you've been in an ultra emphatic mood this week. ;) I would caution you because if Thiem wins (which I know you think is impossible, as you've repeatedly stated), it will come back to bite you with the trolls here. They'll mock your certainty for years to come. I would dial back on the aggressive attitude that not even God almighty can defeat Novak at the AO. I was 100% certain Fed would beat Del Po in the USO final, I was 100% certain Ivan would beat Mats in the '88 USO final and that type of hubris didn't work out so well. I was 95% sure Novak would never come back to winning slams once he had his mental breakdown in 2017 in the Pepe period. That sure was wrong!! I've since learned not to be that intransigent or certain since life has many vagaries and so does tennis.

I don't know what else to say, I would be an idiot to say Thiem doesn't have at least a 12% chance. Which gives Novak basically a 90% chance of winning. Thiem isn't Ryan Harrison or Donald Young and he's equally as fit as Novak. you say Domi has a 5% chance, I think 12%, let's not quibble over a 7% difference. There's plenty of people here who think Domi will take this in four. And maybe he will, let's watch the match first.
Don't give tennisfan3 much thought. He is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a Djokovic fan by any means.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
@TennisFan3 I see you've been in an ultra emphatic mood this week. ;) I would caution you because if Thiem wins (which I know you think is impossible, as you've repeatedly stated), it will come back to bite you with the trolls here. They'll mock your certainty for years to come. I would dial back on the aggressive attitude that not even God almighty can defeat Novak at the AO. I was 100% certain Fed would beat Del Po in the USO final, I was 100% certain Ivan would beat Mats in the '88 USO final and that type of hubris didn't work out so well. I was 95% sure Novak would never come back to winning slams once he had his mental breakdown in 2017 in the Pepe period. That sure was wrong!! I've since learned not to be that intransigent or certain since life has many vagaries and so does tennis.

I don't know what else to say, I would be an idiot to say Thiem doesn't have at least a 12% chance. Which gives Novak basically a 90% chance of winning. Thiem isn't Ryan Harrison or Donald Young and he's equally as fit as Novak. you say Domi has a 5% chance, I think 12%, let's not quibble over a 7% difference. There's plenty of people here who think Domi will take this in four. And maybe he will, let's watch the match first.
Just wanted to say great post @BeatlesFan. I enjoyed reading it.
Thanks for the historical context. I had similar hubris with Pete at Wimbledon at 1996. And to this day no match has shocked me more than his loss to Krajicek. But at least the Dutch went on to win the title.

You're right. Let's see what happens on Sunday. Thiem surely deserves his place in the final.
 

joekapa

Legend
Just wanted to say great post @BeatlesFan. I enjoyed reading it.
Thanks for the historical context. I had similar hubris with Pete at Wimbledon at 1996. And to this day no match has shocked me more than his loss to Krajicek. But at least the Dutch went on to win the title.

You're right. Let's see what happens on Sunday. Thiem surely deserves his place in the final.
We have figured you out. Add to ignore list people. This guy is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a fan of Djokovic.
 

Enceladus

Legend
4. Many people don't want to see Djokovic as a contender for the slam record which they would rather Nadal get if Federer does not maintain, and Djokovic winning here would put him in serious contention for that. Losing would be a major setback to his chances for that.
Likewise, there are many people who don't want Nadal to reach the Grand Slam record and Djokovic is for them a better option as record holder.
 
Djokovic a strong favourite.....Hitting through Novak's defenses is one of the toughest challenges on this court if not the toughest...No one absorbs pace like Novak and that's going to hurt Dominic the most since his shots off both wings will be returned with interest...Dominic will need to add some variety to his game and ball bashing from the baseline will not work across five sets. To add to this, you have the intangibles like the moment getting to Thiem. We've had numerous occasions where he's lost matches/sets from winning positions...So even if he's ahead, there is the mental aspect that comes into play....It would truly be remarkable if he overcomes all of this and comes up trumps....I for one am only hoping for a competitive match.
 

Street

Semi-Pro
We have figured you out. Add to ignore list people. This guy is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a fan of Djokovic.
I have noticed he always says djokovic will destroy his opponent no matter the circumstances. If he really does believe in jinxes he must be ten lol
 

UnforcedTerror

Hall of Fame
I feel like Domi has more than 40% chance, he is fitter than Djokovic and more powerful. He can definitly blow Djokovic off the court if the latter doesn't bring his A game.

Djokovic is Djokovic though so he's the favorite.

My prediction is Thiem in 4 or 5.
 

joekapa

Legend
Djokovic a strong favourite.....Hitting through Novak's defenses is one of the toughest challenges on this court if not the toughest...No one absorbs pace like Novak and that's going to hurt Dominic the most since his shots off both wings will be returned with interest...Dominic will need to add some variety to his game and ball bashing from the baseline will not work across five sets. To add to this, you have the intangibles like the moment getting to Thiem. We've had numerous occasions where he's lost matches/sets from winning positions...So even if he's ahead, there is the mental aspect that comes into play....It would truly be remarkable if he overcomes all of this and comes up trumps....I for one am only hoping for a competitive match.
I think he has mostly overcome these mental lapses. They are no longer a hindrance. If he is in a winning position , he will win.
 

itsstephenyo

Semi-Pro
Nvm, I voted Thiem in 5 but watching this 3rd set replay, Djoker might roll over Thiem. These absolute sitter second serves Thiem was tossing up are gonna get slaughtered across the whole court.
 

Enceladus

Legend
Thiem is 8th Djoker's opponent in the Grand Slam finals (after Federer, Tsonga, Nadal, Murray, Wawrinka, Anderson and del Potro). For Djoker, the AO 2020 final is only the second GS final in his career (after USO 2018 against del Potro) where he is an older finalist. This is a very important final, because at this stage of his career, if Djoker will reaches the many other GS finals, he will probably face more younger opponents than its older known rivals. Djoker must learn to win the GS finals over younger opponents.

I expect that confrontation with Thiem will be difficult, Thiem is in great form. Novak must not have a weak start as in SF against Federer, because he could be lose the first set, which would increase his opponent's self-confidence.

In addition to a very good form, Novak has a strong self-confidence (which is strengthened thanks to his balance 7-0 in AO finals) and mental toughness.

I believe Djoker will succeed, I estimate victory in 4 sets, but I can be wrong, I hope not.
 

skypadq

Hall of Fame
and even thiem lose first set , i don 't feel this match goes 3-0 for novak 's win
medvedev almost win for nadal at 2019 uso final two sets down
so anything for granted
 

tennis4jags

Semi-Pro

Rickenbacker4003

Hall of Fame
People haven't brought up the fact that there's pressure on Joker too. This is HIS slam. He's 33 in February and his style is extremely based on defense. He needs 5 more slams (maybe more) to overtake Federer or Nadal (maybe after RG). At his age with his style of play these opportunities will get much smaller for him in a year or two. By then, the younger players will have established a more consistent run in majors. If he doesnt win this match I'm telling you, he won't reach 20.
 

netlets

Semi-Pro
There are a few possible scenarios. Unfortunately, none of them end with Thiem winning. He has no chance.
For sure - a guy that beat Djokovic 4 of the last 5 matches and in the two most recent Slam semis and a couple months ago on a hardcourt that didn't suit him as well as this one, has no chance. SMH
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
For sure - a guy that beat Djokovic 4 of the last 5 matches and in the two most recent Slam semis and a couple months ago on a hardcourt that didn't suit him as well as this one, has no chance. SMH
Based on what? I think the WTF courts actually suit Thiem's game very well, much more than these AO courts.
 

netlets

Semi-Pro
Outdoor hard meetings H2H? Djokovic is 2-0 with the most recent meeting in 2016. All straight sets. this is going to be a blowout.


2016 ATP Masters 1000 Miami
FL, U.S.A.
Outdoor Hard R16 Novak Djokovic 63 64
2014 ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
China
Outdoor Hard R32 Novak Djokovic 63 64
Way to cherry pick useless stats. Thiem didn't become an elite hardcourt player until last year IMO. He won Indian Wells, beat Djokover 4 of the last 5 matches, the last being on a faster hardcourt that fit Djokovic's style better. This slow court will create a physical matchup, and that favors Thiem.
 

netlets

Semi-Pro
Based on what? I think the WTF courts actually suit Thiem's game very well, much more than these AO courts.
Slower courts benefit Thiem - Djokovic's flat ball striking and low bounce can benefit greatly from a quicker court. Thiem has more power and the slower court gives him more time to pummel the ball. Faster courts give him less time to set up for all of his shots. Djokovic has more compact strokes - not as long a swing path as Thiem's.
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Slower courts benefit Thiem - Djokovic's flat ball striking and low bounce can benefit greatly from a quicker court. Thiem has more power and the slower court gives him more time to pummel the ball. Faster courts give him less time to set up for all of his shots. Djokovic has more compact strokes - not as long a swing path as Thiem's.
AO courts are almost perfect for Djokovic, this is his favorite tournament. I don't see Thiem beating him here. Look, I can give him 10% of a chance. Just for comparison, Murray in 2015-2016 and Nadal in 2019 had less than 1%. I think Thiem can cause damage, but only if he brings his absolute best. (and this is a big if considering that he already played a few very difficult matches)
 

Harry_Wild

G.O.A.T.
Thiem is the potential savor of the millennial era tennis generation! o_O It is all up to him to break through to a GS win! Djokovic is the protector of the "big three"! :) LOL! May change my vote now! Djokovic all the way in 4 sets! :) Order will be restored....again in the tennis universe!
 

tudwell

Legend
Slower courts benefit Thiem - Djokovic's flat ball striking and low bounce can benefit greatly from a quicker court. Thiem has more power and the slower court gives him more time to pummel the ball. Faster courts give him less time to set up for all of his shots. Djokovic has more compact strokes - not as long a swing path as Thiem's.
Agreed. And this same dynamic applies possibly even more so to the return. A slower court somewhat diminishes Djokovic’s lead on the return since Thiem himself will be able to get more balls back. And he’s more comfortable stepping back and taking second serves as they drop down on a slower court, knowing he can still catch up in the point afterwards. So he can actually take good cuts at the ball instead of trying to take it on the rise, where he’s not very comfortable.

Obviously Djokovic loves the courts too, but this is about as favorable a court as Thiem could probably hope for.
 

speedysteve

Legend
Come on Tim.

Thiem needs to be super human and make it a physical 5.
The fluffy balls need to slo it all down so Djoker can only just push them back.

Realistically though, Djoker in 3 or 4.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
If Thiem wins, I feel it will send shockwaves throughout the tennis world. And all the young and rising players along with Kyrgios, Medvedev, Zverev and Tsitsipas will be even more motivated to go out there and fight even harder. Thiem winning would be a huge inspiration for the young players trying to make inroads. This is a bigger Slam final than people are realizing. It could completely disintegrate the big 3 stranglehold on the Slams.
 

rhoder

Rookie
Thiem has the game, but he cannot fold under pressure. Came very close to choking a few key games against Nadal, and then against Zverev yesterday. If he has the belief he can do it, if not then fat chance.
 

yokied

Hall of Fame
If Thiem wins, I feel it will send shockwaves throughout the tennis world. And all the young and rising players along with Kyrgios, Medvedev, Zverev and Tsitsipas will be even more motivated to go out there and fight even harder. Thiem winning would be a huge inspiration for the young players trying to make inroads. This is a bigger Slam final than people are realizing. It could completely disintegrate the big 3 stranglehold on the Slams.
Rafa's gonna have mixed feelings about this one, that's for sure. He doesn't want Djokovic to win but he really really doesn't want Thiem to win...
 

rhoder

Rookie
Rafa's gonna have mixed feelings about this one, that's for sure. He doesn't want Djokovic to win but he really really doesn't want Thiem to win...
Why doesn’t he want Thiem to win? It’s not an auto, Thiem wins AO, then he will beat Nadal at FO.
 

sredna42

Hall of Fame
Dunno what you are all talking about, Novak will win in three comfortable sets. He's playing pretty well, ROS working well, serve is better than ever, groundstrokes solid both sides, and hasn't been pushed physically at all.

thiem will be too spent, and the nerves of the occasion will prove too much at the critical moments anyway for him. All novak has to do is stay solid and not fall down or implode.
 

yokied

Hall of Fame
!!?

He’s facing the best AO player ever who has never lost in an AO final. Dom also has a history of choking or under performing in stressful matches. I think Djokovic wins this and is the prohibitive favorite. I don’t think Thiem is mentally strong enough to challenge him in this event and with the pressure of a final.

If Thiem wins, it would be a huge surprise and upset, I think many are overrating his chances. How many times has he served for sets or matches where he folds at love? He couldn’t serve out his semi against Rafa just last week and that wasn’t a final and it wasn’t against Djokovic.
You've answered your own question, several times. To choke, one first needs to be in a winning position. Tim gets into winning positions a lot. It isn't a fluke. Of course his record speaks to choking and an inability to tie together a series of wins to complete a tournament. But again, we're still talking about Tim. Choke or execute, great or mug, the match is on his racquet.

So let's talk about Novak. You're acting like Novak at the AO is like Nadal at RG. It isn't. Not even close. Novak has lost here before and he'll lose again. Novak has lost a step. It was painfully exposed at last year's USO by Stan. Fed exposed him at WB. He didn't have the baseline weaponry to hurt Tim at RG. He doesn't here.

If anyone's going to hurt Tim, it'll be himself.
 

Roddick85

Hall of Fame
Anything other than a Djokovic win will be a surprise for me. I'm gonna go with a straight sets victory here. Djokovic has such a great record at the Australian Open, it's been his turf for over a decade now, he's in form and serving better than ever, so it's hard to bet against him there. That's not to say Thiem isn't playing well cause he certainly has. Had this been at the USO or on clay, I'd expect a tighter match and could buy into a Thiem victory, but I think this will be #17 for Djokovic.
 

skypadq

Hall of Fame
if thiem wins this
so great for thiem and whole tennis world ( beside novak djokovic fandom )
no one done at major , beat healty nadal and djokovic ( 14 AO nadal was injuried )
if thiem wins this least he second favorite for RG
i think he great chance win us open too
please thiem go !!!
 
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