2020 Australian Open QF :- [1] Rafa Nadal vs [5] Domi Thiem

Match Result prediction poll


  • Total voters
    134
  • Poll closed .
H2H :- 9-4 nadal.
Last meeting :- 2019 RG final Nad. Def Thiem 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1
Last(and only) HC meeting :- 2018 USO QF Nad def. Thiem 0-6 6-4 7-5 6-7 7-6
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[Edit on 29th Jan 3:30 pm IST]
(Now I'll try and add set summaries to important matches if I'd be watching them)

1st set 7-6(3) Thiem

Set summary:-

Nadal should have capitalised early in the set when thiem wasn't getting a read on his serve, made some errors at 3-4 to have rafa serve for the set at 5-3 40-30.
Other than that, Thiem was bullying rafa from the baseline. Most of the longer rallies going to the Austrian. Both players playing from behind the baseline like clay court. Nadal needs to stop that, he has to rush Thiem, shorten the points. Because at the moment, thiem is the better mover and more powerful ballstriker.


Set no. 2 Thiem 7-6 (4)

Set summary :-

A slight drop from the high levels shown in the first set by Thiem. In the early stages, he's still struggling to have a read on nadal's serve, especially the wide serves to his BH and FH. Nadal ups his level considerably in terms of ballstriking. After a couple of holds on each sides, 2 double faults from Thiem and 2 excellent FH & BH passing shots from Nadal give Rafa the upper hand, as he breaks and then holds to take the lead 4-2 with thiem serving next game. After another loose BH error at the start of 7th game, Thiem composes himself again and holds to 3-4. In the next service game, after an excellent get by Thiem on a powerful inside out FH from Rafa gets him to 0-30 & then 0-40 on rafa serve; Nadal saves first b.p. by great Serve+FH combo, but gets tense and double faults to give the break back to Thiem. Starting from this game onwards, Thiem has an excellent read on the rafa serve till the end of the set. After 2 more holds from each side, with a set point brilliantly saved by rafa in the 12th game at 5-6 30-40 by FH DTL cracker; the set goes to the tiebreaker with a slight edge to rafa this time in terms of momentum. In the tiebreaker, Thiem strikes early to take a 4-0 lead over rafa, only to make 3 unforced errors and some clutch by rafa to level it at 4-4. With some heavy inside out FHs, Thiem gets to 5-4 with 2 nadal service points coming, but then the Spaniard hits an unnecessary dropper to which thiem sets himself up 2 set points @ 6-4. On the first set point, thiem's return hits the net cord and drops early, to which nadal can't do anything but drop an easy sitter volley to thiem, the Austrian hits an easy inside out FH pass, apologizes straight away and takes the set in a second consecutive tiebreaker by 7 points to 4. Nadal now trails by 2 sets to zero. Can the Spaniard come back from here to demonstrate his fighting spirits once again, for which he's well known in the tennis world? Big question indeed, as we move into the 3rd set with thiem still having problems reading the Rafa serve.

3rd set Rafa 6-4

Set Summary :- Considerable drop off in the hitting quality and accuracy by Thiem from the 2nd set. Rafa - about the same imo. Set starts with Rafa holding his serve easily as Thiem looks even more clueless on the return. Though in the long rallies, thiem still prevails most of the time. Still some easy holds by nadal. In 3rd service game, thiem shows incredible defense as he soaks everything nadal throws at him multiple times to hold his serve. Neither player is able to get a look on each other's serve though. Nadal comes up with an astonishing quick hold in between. Nothing unusual from the first 2 sets in terms of rallying, apart from rafa pressing a bit more on the FH DTL & BH CC. After 8 consecutive holds with no break point for either man, Rafa holds at 4-4 from 0-15 to go up 5-4. Thiem makes some unforced errors and nadal suddenly gets 2 break+set points on 5-4 40-15 thiem serve. 1st set point is saved by Thiem by an excellent serve. On the 2nd set point, rafa wrong foots thiem in the rally, the Austrian nets a BH and boom... Set nadal. With a momentum shift seemingly on the horizon now as we move to the 4th set of this contest. Meanwhile in the 4th set thiem's making unforced errors at a higher rate than first 3 sets as I'm watching it. Can rafa take advantage of Thiem's dip even more? Will he take this to a decider. All answers will unfold in front of us.

4th set :- 7-6 (6) Thiem.

Set Summary :-

As dramatic as it can get. Probably the most dramatic set of this match, though the tennis quality was at its poorest compared to the high standards of this match; but not unexpected as both players had already exhausted each other incredibly throughout the first 3 sets. This 4th set starts with nadal serving first, having claimed the 3rd set 6-4 by breaking the thiem serve at the tail end of the set. As nadal has the momentum, he is confident in his game and holds serve in the 1st game relatively easily. In the 2nd game, thiem makes some unforced errors to go down 15-40 and then 40-ad on his serve; he saves all 3 of those break points with incredible tennis in which was probably the 2nd most important service hold of this match (1st one was in 1st set 5-3 rafa but he blew it). Thiem wasn't getting a good read on rafa serve and if he'd been broken, I think rafa would've crushed the Austrian's soul in 5 sets. Nevertheless, thiem holds and levels the score at 1-1. In the next game, due to some unforced errors by nadal and ultra-level ball hammering by thiem at the right moments, the Austrian gets the break and takes 2-1 lead. From then onwards, a couple of easy holds for Dominic follow the course as nadal is getting bullied by his rival's power. At 4-2, nadal is down 0-30 on his serve and plays 4 extremely clutch points to stay alive in the match & keep the Austrian at just 1 break's lead. In the next game, thiem holds his serve to go 5-3, quickly followed by nadal at 5-4 and the Spaniard now asks the Austrian to hold his nerve and serve to close out the set and match. Thiem gets tight, leaks some weird unforced errors and Nadal breaks back to level the score at 5-5. From then, the tension is visible on court and surprisingly, a couple of easy holds follow to take this match into its 3rd tiebreaker (1st and 2nd were TBs too). In the breaker, Thiem immediately goes up a mini break due to stunning passing shots, but then leaks errors and give rafa the mini break back and a 2-1 advantage with a mini break. Though the Austrian gathers his composure quickly and wins 4 points in a row on nadal's & his serve to go up 5-2. Though being pressurized by Thiem's heavy shots, rafa maintains his composure to win next 2 points and passes the task of serving out the match to thiem. At 5-4, Thiem serves an excellent unreturnable in the corner and sets up 2 match points for himself. Though on the 1st match point, he gets tight again and misses an easy sitter off the FH wing and now its 6-5 thiem with rafa's serve points coming on. The 12th point is an incredible battle between the two as rafa pushes thiem to corner and he hits a lob at the other end of the court, which, upon being challenged by rafa, turns out to be out and now its 6-6 at the court changeover. In the 13th point, rafa's excellent wide serve to the thiem BH draws a short return from the Austrian, which Rafa follows through the net with a Forehand crosscourt shot, on which Thiem rips the passing shot on stretch, which touches the net cord and goes down to the rafa side to set up yet another match point for Thiem. On the match point no. 3, thiem puts in an incredibly nervy 2nd serve, on which, after a rally, Nadal misses an easy Forehand Sitter. Thiem wins the tiebreaker 8-6 and the match 7-6 7-6 4-6 7-6.
Over-all, a high quality match.
 
Last edited:

Jokervich

Semi-Pro
I think this goes to 5 sets, with either player winning. Can't see how either player wins in straight sets.

I will say Nadal in 5.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Thiem is not exactly known for his clutch though. He chokes so much
He came super close against Nadal at the US Open, actually beat a very good Djokovic at the WTF. I honestly think he can do it. We'll see. Nadal is almost 34 years old, people keep forgetting that.
 

alexio88

Hall of Fame
Probably Nadal in 5.

Wouldn't be surprised if Thiem won, though. He would have to make this match as physical as possible, at this point in time the longer the match the more it favors Thiem.
so how nadal in 5 if you then say the longer match the more it favors thiem
 

Nadal_King

Semi-Pro
Nadal in 4 sets but expect really physical play and if rafa gets Us open 18 qf type match and wins in 5 then expect a similar sort of fate like struggling in semis or having nothing left for final. Nadal needs to win and make it less physical as I think semi with either zverev or Wawrinka would not be that physical as this one can be so this match will be huge for what rafa can do at this tournament.
 

Jokervich

Semi-Pro
Nadal in 4 sets but expect really physical play and if rafa gets Us open 18 qf type match and wins in 5 then expect a similar sort of fate like struggling in semis or having nothing left for final. Nadal needs to win and make it less physical as I think semi with either zverev or Wawrinka would not be that physical as this one can be so this match will be huge for what rafa can do at this tournament.
You really think Nadal has any shot of winning the AO? I put his chances at close to zero, given the players still left in.
 
Tough Match to call. Thiem is in great form and rafa while maybe not at his very best, is always tough to beat in a slam at this stage. I will say Nadal in 5 sets. Think he will just make it but wouldn’t be surprised if Thiem won.
 

gameovais

New User
Thiem is very fit and has a very good deciding set record. If it goes the distance I pick Thiem otherwise Nadal would be my pick. The conditions will be slow and heavy but given their gamestyles I don't think it'll favour either.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Thiem is very fit and has a very good deciding set record. If it goes the distance I pick Thiem otherwise Nadal would be my pick. The conditions will be slow and heavy but given their gamestyles I don't think it'll favour either.
How slow? Do you have any Court Pace Index data proving the conditions are slow? The court is not as slow as RG or even the USO, so the conditions do not fit either, especially Nadal.
 
Djokovic is very lucky with his draw. Kyrgios, Thiem, Wawrinka/Zverev wouldn't be an easy draw for him even in AO, they all know how to play him. But of course he has to face Raonic instead.
 
It's fair. At the USO 2019 Djokovic was the one with the draw from hell and now it's Nadal's turn.
Draw from hell? What? Wawrinka is a tough matchup for him in slams, but it doesn't mean it was a draw from hell. Djokovic didn't even finish the match anyway.
 
You get my point. Djoovic was unlucky with his draw at the USO 2019, so it compensates his good luck here. Do you want Djokovic to be unlucky with his draw in all the Slams?
In all the slams? :-D :-D :-D :-D
I don't remember the last time when he had a really tough draw. His draw in USO 2019 wasn't more difficult than Nadal's.
 

Rafaisdabest

Hall of Fame
Rafa in 5, would be good if he came away in straights or 4 though. Need him to be well rested if he happens to meet Fed or Novak in the semi and final.
Can he meet Federer though?
 

Open Stance

New User
Rafa needs to get his forehand squared away. Too many short balls. Thiem will feast on that if Nadal is not on top of his game.
 

Open Stance

New User
Rafa in 5, would be good if he came away in straights or 4 though. Need him to be well rested if he happens to meet Fed or Novak in the semi and final.
Can he meet Federer though?
Rafa is on the opposite side of the draw from Novak and Roger. If Rafa gets past Thiem, he's looking at Medvedev in the semis.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
Rafa in 5, would be good if he came away in straights or 4 though. Need him to be well rested if he happens to meet Fed or Novak in the semi and final.
Can he meet Federer though?
He can only meet one of Fed or Novak in the final.

Winner of his QF with Thiem plays the winner of Stan v Zverev in the SF.
 

robthai

Hall of Fame
Thiem will lose and be the undeserved loser. I predict that he will probably choke late in the 5th set or waste many break point opportunities. I can already see it happening. Thiem is an honorable loser. He losses matches that he should win. Kind of like Fed minus all the success.
 

WarriorRafa

Professional
When the draw came out i said Rafa will lose to Thiem. Lets see. Rafa isnt playing well, is tired and possibly has feet with blisters given that he walked off court without his shoes. Thiem is in better physical shape. I think it will be Thiem in 4

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk
 

TennisFan3

Legend
Nadal looks worn out and sluggish. Almost feels that he is injured or about to get there. Thiem has a great chance IMO.
 

ChrisRF

Hall of Fame
Nadal in 4. Thiem is a fighter who deserves respect, but I expect a similar scoreline like today against Kyrgios.

As strange as it sounds, after the recent matchup developments I would rather like to see Nadal in the final against Federer than Thiem.
 
I am expecting a good close match....Probably the best matchup of the QF lineup. Tough to look past Nadal imho, but if there's anyone who can hit through the court its Thiem. Admittedly, his problem is consistency across five sets. If he can cut down on errors and play a high percentage game, he gives himself a good chance....
 

Nadal_Django

Hall of Fame
This is going to be a huge test for Nadal, Thiem is playing really well on HC lately, but still I expect Rafa to win in 4 sets.
 
How slow? Do you have any Court Pace Index data proving the conditions are slow? The court is not as slow as RG or even the USO, so the conditions do not fit either, especially Nadal.
The bounce is lower on the AO courts so Nadal's heavy topspin forehands shouldn't do as much damage to Thiem's backhand as on the US Open courts. Thiem pushed Nadal to a 5th set tiebreaker already at the US Open, which is their only hardcourt meeting so far, so you'd expect that Thiem would be able to push him here, too, where the courts favor Nadal less than at the US Open. Thiem's also now certainly a better hardcourt player than he was in 2018 while Nadal is at the same level as back then (or has maybe even declined a bit?).

When you put all that together, Thiem should have his best chance ever to beat Nadal in a slam. But you never really know how it will go, what each player's form of the day will be, if Thiem will choke or not etc.
 
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