I was worried for Rafa against Nick but he pulled through, so this time i'm backing him to do it in four sets. But it must be a decisive, dominating 4 set victory, I feel a 5 set epic would be too much for Rafa. Thiem is playing well without being spectacular. The point is can he be consistent enough to go for his winners without making lots of errors, that's the key. It really underlines how easy Novak's draw has been. He'll literally sleepwalk his way to the final.
2020 Australian Open QF :- [1] Rafa Nadal vs [5] Domi Thiem
- Thread starter HetTheGreaterer
- Start date
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Rafaello in five
HetTheGreaterer
Banned
I think people are really underestimating Thiem here.
He took down fedovic back to back at WTF on a fast indoors court.
We shall see though.
He took down fedovic back to back at WTF on a fast indoors court.
We shall see though.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
How are you expecting Nadal to beat Thiem?
Nadal was younger , faster and better in the US open 2018. The surface also favored him a lot more. Thiem still took him to 5 sets with a bagel.
Here the court suits Nadal much less. He is older and looks more worn out. Thiem has since beaten Fed and Novak and is playing much better on hardcourts. The court suits Thiem more than it does Nadal.
So how will Nadal win?
aldeayeah
G.O.A.T.
The court suits neither, IMO.
ForumMember
Hall of Fame
Well Rafa normally beats Thiem by keeping the ball in play and keeping the shots deep, waiting for Theim to be overly aggressive and star making errors. Rafa at a high level will just be more consistent in the rallies and handle the pressure points better. Thiem will come our swinging but will lose focus and concentration the longer and more intense the match becomes. The wins against Fed & Novak were 2 out of 3 and Thiem still has to prove himself in the slams outside the French. I assume this will be a day match which will be better for Rafa..
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
That will definitely happen
ForumMember
Hall of Fame
Rafaisdabest
Hall of Fame
lol didn’t realise he wrote Medvedev lol just was wondering about Federer. Thought he couldn’t meet him in semi so that’s why I was asking.
Forehanderer
Professional
Nadal's baldness is showing quite visibly so I'm picking the bull in 5. Team still not balding so no bueno
Open Stance
Hall of Fame
The matches are on in the middle of the night so it's hard to watch them all! I hadn't heard that Medvedev lost until this morning.
malbaker86
Hall of Fame
The 2018 US Open match isn't a good barometer since that occurred later in the season as oppose to now at the beggining of the season as well as Rafa was coming off two tough matches prior to facing Thiem...and he still beat Thiem in the end. Ned in 4
Yugram
Legend
Not to mention that Nadal probably should’ve won in 4 at USO. Missed an easy volley on BP late in the fourth to serve for the match.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
Good post.
The way for Nadal to beat Thiem is to be aggressive. That is how he won in Paris last year as well. Thiem is younger than Nadal and can easily outlast him. If Nadal needs to win, he has to do it in 3 or 4 sets.
There is no way he is outlasting Thiem in 5. Thiem has more experience now in decisive sets, plus he has waaay more stamina.
What I'm saying is that Nadal will just need to play far far better and basically outhit and outsmart Thiem. And quickly..
This surface suits Thiem much more than it does Nadal. Thiem benefits from the slower conditions in that he gets time to set up his shots. The way to beat Thiem is to take time away from him. You can't beat him from pace or run him ragged.
But if you make the ball hurry up to Thiem, so that he doesn't have enough time to set up his big shots, he becomes a UFE machine. You get him out of position, and you make him late for his big groundies.
On this court, Nadal's spin does NOT penetrate like other hardcourts. Darren Cahill in ESPN spend a lot of time talking about it. He said it's a myth that Nadal prefers slower courts. He wants a court where there is bounce and allows his spin to jump up. That is why hotter conditions are better for his game. He said that Nadal's forehand doesn't jump up on this court as much so Rafa cannot push his opponents back as he does in the UsOpen. Darren also said that the heavier fluffier balls here also don't suit Nadal and even do not suit Federer.
HetTheGreaterer
Banned
Thiem has improved a lot in his HC game since then.
Beat 2 HC greats b2b
Yugram
Legend
Thiem’s winners to unforced errors ratio:
USO 2018 against Anderson: +29
AO 2020 against Monfils: +12
Not looking like improvement to me. Maybe he can raise his level, idk, but he did not impress me at this tournament yet. At USO 2018 I knew Nadal is in trouble the moment I saw Thiem thrashing Anderson. I even predicted the bagel.
kevaninho
Hall of Fame
Rafa needs a solid battle if he wants to be in with any chance of beating Fed or Djoker in the final ( if any get there ).
He got a test today mentally, with the NK dislike. You can see how Rafa gets emotionally invested playing him, more than most.
Thiem will be a brutal test, so he needs to play these matches to be ready for the other big 2 members.
No point steamrolling guys like last years AO, then not being battle hardened for the Djoker.
He got a test today mentally, with the NK dislike. You can see how Rafa gets emotionally invested playing him, more than most.
Thiem will be a brutal test, so he needs to play these matches to be ready for the other big 2 members.
No point steamrolling guys like last years AO, then not being battle hardened for the Djoker.
HetTheGreaterer
Banned
That's a bit weird..
Thiem's HC game especially on low bouncing HCs has definately improved and there is no doubt about it bro.
Yugram
Legend
He finally became consistent on hard courts, but is yet to produce anything close to USO 2018 in terms of peak. Maybe third set against Djokovic at WTF was on par.
HetTheGreaterer
Banned
USO18 success was plainly due to the slow high bouncing hard court, as it played similar to clay.
Imo, his current HC level can give troubles to rafa.
Yugram
Legend
Will see. I’m excited, but this match is a mystery box. We can’t say what awaits in it judging by one HC match they’ve had 1,5 year ago.
marc45
G.O.A.T.
very surprised if this isn't the night match, most assuredly it will be
mightyjeditribble
Legend
I didn't watch either match, so not saying his level is better or worse now ...
But just wanted to say that Anderson and Monfils are pretty obviously very different players, so I wouldn't compare those matches on these stats. I mean, surely it is easier to hit a winner against Anderson than against Monfils, who will scramble and at least get a racquet on it.
(Sent from my mobile phone, apologies for typos!)
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
I don't and nothing indicates he's capable of beating Nadal on a HC.
He never has.
Nadal in four.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Hilarious that people post here who don't even bother to watch the matches or have any clue what's going on in the tournament.
WhiskeyEE
G.O.A.T.
This is probably the best court for Thiem to face Nadal on. I'm not sure he's playing well enough to win though. Although I think he can.
RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
He's been close though. Thiem has lately beaten both Djokovic and Federer in the same tournament on HC. Thiem has every weapon he needs to pull this off and he is in great form. Conditions are pretty good aswell for him. I dont think its a coincidence he made his first QF here.
Will be a tough battle, with few margins deciding it. I'm guessing for a 4-5 hour match here.
JoelSandwich
Hall of Fame
Man I hope Thiem can do it this time
Musterrific
Hall of Fame
Thiem has entered his prime. If he can't beat an old Nadal on slow hardcourt now, he never will.
Harry_Wild
G.O.A.T.
Rafa in straight sets! 
Rafaisdabest
Hall of Fame
Excuse me, lol but I've watched 99% of matches and I do have a clue what's going on but I just forgotten the rules and I thought that he couldn't play Fed in semi after I wrote it but was just making sure that I was incorrect. That is all. Gawd...I'm only human can't I make a simple error....
King No1e
G.O.A.T.
Mike Sams
G.O.A.T.
That match against Thiem at US Open ended Nadal's 2018 season. He retired midway in the next match and was done for the rest of the season.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
#ThiemThiem 
Cortana
Legend
V
Vamos Rafa Nadal
Guest
Nadal is going to win easily and I say this as a big fan of both players. Thiem is my 2nd favorite. It's going to be another Djokovic-Nadal final, but this time Rafa is going to win!
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