2020 Clay Horses

[Meles]

Clay Elo, 2nd column best rank, points far right

Points
1 CH	1	Rafael Nadal	2495
2	1	Novak Djokovic	2363
3	2	Dominic Thiem	2272
4	2	Roger Federer	2188
5	3	Alexander Zverev	2182
6	3	Stan Wawrinka	2147
7	5	Kei Nishikori	2121
8 CH	8	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman	CH 2120
9	5	Juan Martin Del Potro	2116
10 CH	10	Casper Ruud	CH 2090
11	9	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2089
12	7	Marin Cilic	2079
13	10	Christian Garin	2070
14	8	David Goffin	2039
15	14	Matteo Berrettini	2031
16	6	Fabio Fognini	2030
17	6	Jo Wilfried Tsonga	2021
18	15	Karen Khachanov	2014
19 CH	19	Andrey Rublev	CH 2006
20	16	Roberto Bautista Agut	2003

Shapo 27, Dimi 26

Recent Elo which has short tail so post covid heavy

Rank	Best Rank	Name	Points
1 CH	1	Novak Djokovic	2539
2	1	Rafael Nadal	2436
3 CH	3	Dominic Thiem	CH 2374
4	1	Roger Federer	2366
5 CH	5	Andrey Rublev	2257
6	3	Alexander Zverev	2240
7	4	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2223
8	3	Daniil Medvedev	2219
9	8	Roberto Bautista Agut	2153
10	3	Stan Wawrinka	2151
11	7	Denis Shapovalov	2151
12 CH	12	Pablo Carreno Busta	2150
13	6	Gael Monfils	2149
14	9	Alex De Minaur	2140
15	5	Nick Kyrgios	2140
16	4	Milos Raonic	2139
17	14	Filip Krajinovic	CH 2138
18	10	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman	2133
19	5	Matteo Berrettini	2115
20 CH	20	Vasek Pospisil	CH 2113

Rublev quite high. Dimi 23, Ruud 22, Garin 35

Players rating well in all lists the real deal. Schwartz and Berry. Reading tea leaves, but all we got due to covid.

 

[Meles]

4th column points won % table too many characters for one post

.7​

47

Tennys Sandgren [USA]

6​

1.19​

845​

53.0%​

4​

2-2​

50.0%​

28.6%​

14​

9-5​

64.3%​

133​

75-58​

56.4%​

1:43​

43.9​

43.7​

25

Casper Ruud [NOR]

19​

1.18​

2595​

52.9%​

4​

3-1​

75.0%​

9.3%​

43​

31-12​

72.1%​

408​

235-173​

57.6%​

1:44​

46.1​

45.8​

8

Matteo Berrettini [ITA]

3​

1.25​

479​

52.8%​

3​

2-1​

66.7%​

42.9%​

7​

5-2​

71.4%​

74​

40-34​

54.1%​

2:05​

53.7​

47.1​

19

Christian Garin [CHI]

16​

1.11​

2451​

51.9%​

5​

4-1​

80.0%​

12.8%​

39​

27-12​

69.2%​

370​

203-167​

54.9%​

1:51​

45.5​

43.4​

21

Milos Raonic [CAN]

2​

1.22​

322​

51.9%​

2​

1-1​

50.0%​

40.0%​

5​

3-2​

60.0%​

50​

26-24​

52.0%​

2:20​

55.8​

52.0​

3

Dominic Thiem [AUT]

3​

1.10​

516​

51.7%​

2​

0-2​

0.0%​

25.0%​

8​

4-4​

50.0%​

80​

45-35​

56.3%​

2:13​

50.0​

46.5​

14

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman [ARG]

13​

1.07​

2160​

51.5%​

5​

4-1​

80.0%​

15.2%​

33​

21-12​

63.6%​

319​

171-148​

53.6%​

2:15​

53.3​

48.9​

Tsits at lowly 51%. RG not included. Rublev and Dimitrov very high. Sandgren a surprise, but includes qualifiers. Ruud, Berry, Shapo, Garin respectable.

 

[Meles]

Rafael Nadal [ESP]

3​

1.28​

321​

55.1%​

0​

0-0​

-​

0.0%​

6​

4-2​

66.7%​

50​

31-19​

62.0%​

1:35​

47.7​

53.5​

12

Andrey Rublev [RUS]

7​

1.34​

978​

55.0%​

1​

0-1​

0.0%​

5.9%​

17​

13-4​

76.5%​

160​

94-66​

58.8%​

1:39​

40.8​

42.6​

20

Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]

4​

1.27​

524​

54.8%​

0​

0-0​

-​

0.0%​

10​

7-3​

70.0%​

87​

51-36​

58.6%​

1:36​

38.3​

43.9​

1

Novak Djokovic [SRB]

5​

1.31​

759​

54.8%​

1​

1-0​

100.0%​

9.1%​

11​

10-1​

90.9%​

108​

66-42​

61.1%​

1:57​

53.2​

46.2​

40

Marin Cilic [CRO]

3​

1.39​

406​

54.7%​

2​

0-2​

0.0%​

28.6%​

7​

4-3​

57.1%​

66​

38-28​

57.6%​

1:39​

42.4​

43.9​

11

Denis Shapovalov [CAN]

5​

1.23​

817​

53.4%​

2​

0-2​

0.0%​

15.4%​

13​

9-4​

69.2%​

125​

74-51​

59.2%​

2:12​

50.8​

48.5​

29

Filip Krajinovic [SRB]

3​

1.24​

414​

53.4%​

1​

0-1​

0.0%​

16.7%​

6​

4-2​

66.7%​

60​

34-26​

56.7%​

1:42​

51.0​

44.3​

41

Miomir Kecmanovic [SRB]

6​

1.18​

925​

53.1%​

1​

0-1​

0.0%​

6.7%​

15​

10-5​

66.7%​

144​

81-63​

56.3%​

1:45​

41.8​

40​

 

[Meles]

Putting some of this together the shockingly high player is Rublev. 55% points won is very high. Rublev's 2018 was destroyed by a fractured back:

16 / 2018 Monte Carlo Masters
R32	Clay	Dominic Thiem	Andrey Rublev	5-7 7-5 7-5

By 2019 clay his ranking was so low that he was in quaifying, but made a resugence at 2019 Hamburg

30 / 2019 Hamburg
F	Clay	Nikoloz Basilashvili	Andrey Rublev	7-5 4-6 6-3	H2H
SF	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Pablo Carreno Busta	4-6 7-5 6-1	H2H
QF	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Dominic Thiem	7-6(3) 7-6(5)	H2H
R16	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Casper Ruud	3-6 7-5 6-3	H2H
R32	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Christian Garin	6-4 7-6(5)

In hindsight that is an incredibly rough draw with first three currently top ten on clay, but Rublev's clay Elo only went to 45.

The 55% points won on clay 2020 are slam winning numbers in normal times and very strong field at 2020 Hamburg:

39 / 2020 Hamburg European
F	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Stefanos Tsitsipas	6-4 3-6 7-5	H2H
SF	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Casper Ruud	6-4 6-2	H2H
QF	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Roberto Bautista Agut	6-2 7-5	H2H
R16	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Tommy Paul	6-1 3-6 6-2	H2H
R32	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Tennys Sandgren	6-3 6-3	H2H
38 / 2020 Rome Masters
R32	Clay	Hubert Hurkacz	Andrey Rublev	7-6(6) 3-6 6-2	H2H
R64	Clay	Andrey Rublev	Facundo Bagnis	6-4 6-4	H2H

@Sysyphus approved

 

[Deleted member 748597]

Meles' stats are beautiful.

 

[RF-18]

Nice @Meles !

 

[Meles]

Nice @Meles !

I'm stuck on an ipad and the pastes were horrible from the stats sites and had to be broken up over three posts because of character limit.

Rublev is shocking me again. The first time was his 2nd return jump a few years ago and he could easily have another jump (turns 23 next month and Mad Weed jumped at that age big time.) This time its his first serve game that is off the hook. Doubt it? Well 23 aces at RG in the opening five setter. Very much like Mad Weed in that the numbers are incredible. Davydenko with a serve basically and better return.

 

[King No1e]

Awesome stats! I can barely post on an iPad, forget about doing some hardcore number crunching.

 

[Meles]

Awesome stats! I can barely post on an iPad, forget about doing some hardcore number crunching.

Just doing copy and paste. The new site I think helps a little bit with pulling these tables in

 

[Tennis_Freak99]

Ah, 'Melesian Statistics'. This should be introduced in colleges, along with 'Lewsian Algebra' of course.

This is the Future

 

[Third Serve]

Ah, 'Melesian Statistics'. This should be introduced in colleges, along with 'Lewsian Algebra' of course.

This is the Future

"Melesian math and Lew statistics" (@Federer and Del Potro) is like calculus to pre-algebra.

 

[King No1e]

"Melesian math and Lew statistics" (@Federer and Del Potro) is like calculus to pre-algebra.

To be fair, you do have to have a high IQ to understand Lew. Without a firm grasp of theoretical physics, many of the statistics would go over the typical viewer's head.

 

[Third Serve]

To be fair, you do have to have a high IQ to understand Lew. Without a firm grasp of theoretical physics, many of the statistics would go over the typical viewer's head.

And yes, by the way, i DO have a Lew II tattoo. And no, you cannot see it. It's for the ladies' eyes only- and even then they have to demonstrate that they're within 5 IQ points of my own (preferably lower) beforehand. Nothin personnel kid

 

[King No1e]

And yes, by the way, i DO have a Lew II tattoo. And no, you cannot see it. It's for the ladies' eyes only- and even then they have to demonstrate that they're within 5 IQ points of my own (preferably lower) beforehand. Nothin personnel kid

 

[BeatlesFan]

And yes, by the way, i DO have a Lew II tattoo. And no, you cannot see it. It's for the ladies' eyes only- and even then they have to demonstrate that they're within 5 IQ points of my own (preferably lower) beforehand. Nothin personnel kid

When boasting of ones IQ, it might be a good idea to spell "personal" correctly.

 

[Breakpointerer]

When boasting of ones IQ, it might be a good idea to spell "personal" correctly.

Lol it's a copypasta.

 

[Meles]

When boasting of ones IQ, it might be a good idea to spell "personal" correctly.

Thoughts on Rublev?

 

[Deleted member 748597]

Lol it's a copypasta.

Hi. Sorry for my English.

 

[smalahove]

Thoughts on Rublev?

It seems like he's getting better at staying composed. He did mention this after his match with Medvedev in the USO QF when talking about his little tantrum after losing the first set tiebreak. Previously he would have gone totally ballistic. I also remember Coric a few years ago, going totally mental. You never see that in the big guys, as he talks about. Winner's mentality and all of that.

If he gets that part together, he'll also know how and when to adjust his game. Because he absolutely pummels the ball from both wings, and he's seemingly impossible to hit through. He thrives on pace. But it seems that playing styles that mixes pace and spin, makes him a bit impatient, just like his match against Evans in Cinci, which he should have won, but didn't, as he didn't respect the fact that Evans' slice eats up pace, esp. if you give him the same look over and over.

 

[Breakpointerer]

Hi. Sorry for my English.

lol it okei

 

[Meles]

It seems like he's getting better at staying composed. He did mention this after his match with Medvedev in the USO QF when talking about his little tantrum after losing the first set tiebreak. Previously he would have gone totally ballistic. I also remember Coric a few years ago, going totally mental. You never see that in the big guys, as he talks about. Winner's mentality and all of that.

If he gets that part together, he'll also know how and when to adjust his game. Because he absolutely pummels the ball from both wings, and he's seemingly impossible to hit through. He thrives on pace. But it seems that playing styles that mixes pace and spin, makes him a bit impatient, just like his match against Evans in Cinci, which he should have won, but didn't, as he didn't respect the fact that Evans' slice eats up pace, esp. if you give him the same look over and over.

I love stats, but so hard to make firm conclusions with limited datapoints. Rublev's slice slowly improving. Rublev really hugs the baseline and can handle a lot of pace so not sure what's next, but logically more net play and we see Zverev hugely improved in this department suddenly.

Dimitrov has great numbers, but don't fully trust them because of the Nishioka wipe out. Still he's playing well on clay and also in the Medvevev quarter so he's got to be licking his chops at another shot at Shapo at RG. Rublev very likely waiting in that QF.

Sandgren is no slouch so maybe he'll surprise a bit. He played South American clay after his first Auz Open run through Thiem. Very dangerous opponent for Nole R32 RG. Impreesed he beat Hurkacz and will need a quick 2nd round.

RBA really not top tier on clay, but hard to hit by at RG and you'd think his powerful forehand might get through these courts nicely.

Another tidbit on Rublev is hs spin rate on groundies almost identical to Djoko.

 

[DSH]

I love stats, but so hard to make firm conclusions with limited datapoints. Rublev's slice slowly improving. Rublev really hugs the baseline and can handle a lot of pace so not sure what's next, but logically more net play and we see Zverev hugely improved in this department suddenly.

Dimitrov has great numbers, but don't fully trust them because of the Nishioka wipe out. Still he's playing well on clay and also in the Medvevev quarter so he's got to be licking his chops at another shot at Shapo at RG. Rublev very likely waiting in that QF.

Sandgren is no slouch so maybe he'll surprise a bit. He played South American clay after his first Auz Open run through Thiem. Very dangerous opponent for Nole R32 RG. Impreesed he beat Hurkacz and will need a quick 2nd round.

RBA really not top tier on clay, but hard to hit by at RG and you'd think his powerful forehand might get through these courts nicely.

Another tidbit on Rublev is hs spin rate on groundies almost identical to Djoko.

What do you expect from PCB, Khachanov and Berrettini?
How far with can they go?

 

[Lew II]

I see Elo, I press like.

 

[Meles]

What do you expect from PCB, Khachanov and Berrettini?
How far with can they go?

Berry usually clutch with poor stats; see Pouille. But his points won are solid.

Recent Elo solid for Bustagut, but thats it; Rublev wins.