2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

[schmke]

I just posted my predictions from my simulation, looks to be a very tight competition with 14 of the teams having schedule strengths from 3.98 to 4.02. A big tie at 3-1 is likely, but Texas, Middle West, MoValley, and Middle States appear most likely to advance, SoCal, Eastern, Northern, Florida, and New England most likely to spoil the party.

 

[NumbersGuy]

My top four are the same, except Intermountain in place of MoValley. Going "beyond the numbers" on that pick, given some knowledge about their program.

 

[schmke]

My top four are the same, except Intermountain in place of MoValley. Going "beyond the numbers" on that pick, given some knowledge about their program.

History is on your side. My simulations are strictly by the numbers, but yeah, if I were wagering I'd find a way to get Intermountain in the mix.

 

[Vox Rationis]

I'm going with Texas, Intermountain, Mid west and Southwest as my dark horse. I've had Texas and Intermountain pegged as the two finalists since the start of the year based on previously stated "knowledge" about those two captains. Mid west has what looks like one of the strongest ringer singles player, a good team behind him, and a schedule I think favors them. And I'm going out on a limb to pick southwest because that sections' ratings seem underrated based on the 18+ 4.5 performance. They also have one of the stronger looking singles ringers, but I'm mostly going off of that ratings hunch.

Tough luck to So Cal btw. I think they're probably one of the top 4 teams but having to face Intermountain before the semis is bad luck. They'd have to make it as the best 3-1 team, imo. And I'll give Eastern an outside shot based on ease of schedule and having potentially an extremely deep team. No obvious ringers but it looks like they grabbed all the best 4.0s from the NYC area and threw them on one team.

 

[TennisOTM]

I just posted my predictions from my simulation, looks to be a very tight competition with 14 of the teams having schedule strengths from 3.98 to 4.02. A big tie at 3-1 is likely, but Texas, Middle West, MoValley, and Middle States appear most likely to advance, SoCal, Eastern, Northern, Florida, and New England most likely to spoil the party.

Does your analysis of prior results of these teams include predicted "strikes" for self-rated players? I'm curious if any of the teams are at high risk of a DQ or two during Nationals.

 

[J_R_B]

Does your analysis of prior results of these teams include predicted "strikes" for self-rated players? I'm curious if any of the teams are at high risk of a DQ or two during Nationals.

There are no DQs during nationals.

 

[TennisOTM]

There are no DQs during nationals.

Interesting. So if your self-rated ringers help you dominate a couple matches at sectionals and generate 2 strikes, you can just unleash them at Nationals with no worries. I wonder how many players fall in this category this year.

 

[schmke]

Interesting. So if your self-rated ringers help you dominate a couple matches at sectionals and generate 2 strikes, you can just unleash them at Nationals with no worries. I wonder how many players fall in this category this year.

Yes, this is one strategy that is employed. And while DQ's don't happen during a Nationals event, they can and do happen after, so it will be interesting to see what if any self-rates that do well this weekend find themselves DQ'd next week. The DQ is kind of moot unless they are going to another Nationals or playing in a Fall league of course, but it still can happen.

 

[McLovin]

Interesting. So if your self-rated ringers help you dominate a couple matches at sectionals and generate 2 strikes, you can just unleash them at Nationals with no worries. I wonder how many players fall in this category this year.

Check out Mid Atlantic’s singles ringer from the 4.5 team in 2019. Self rated “4.5” who’s WORST win at Nationals was 3 & 2. Not only didn’t he get DQ’d, he somehow didn’t get bumped to 5.0. I’m still scratching my head on that one.

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

Very general question, requires some, imagination.
Pretend there is a fantasy world where tennis players just naturally graduate college and decide to play some usta wherever they end up living, and self-rate. There's also some people who took off form tennis and self rate. How many self-rated players would end up on a team just naturally, without unusual influences like captains recruiting or planned self-rates for going to nationals? I'd say maybe 1-3 per team, naturally, unless a whole group of tennis on campus players ended up in the same city and formed a full team. I mean div 1 players, an entire team, can't self rate at 4.0 or 4.5 can they?

Anyway, since you guys are looking at the teams already, you might have this info in your head. How many self rates are on these teams, is it an unusual amount compared to my fantasy-land scenario? I've played some state tourneys the past two seasons and only played against self rates, but figured it was a little bit of luck or coincidence.

 

[BallBag]

Check out Mid Atlantic’s singles ringer from the 4.5 team in 2019. Self rated “4.5” who’s WORST win at Nationals was 3 & 2. Not only didn’t he get DQ’d, he somehow didn’t get bumped to 5.0. I’m still scratching my head on that one.

On the 4.0 team or 40+ 4.5?

 

[McLovin]

On the 4.0 team or 40+ 4.5?

4.5 18+.

 

[BallBag]

4.5 18+.

I know the MAS 4.0 team pretty good and the one appeal down didn't play any 18+ 4.5.

 

[NumbersGuy]

Very general question, requires some, imagination.
Pretend there is a fantasy world where tennis players just naturally graduate college and decide to play some usta wherever they end up living, and self-rate. There's also some people who took off form tennis and self rate. How many self-rated players would end up on a team just naturally, without unusual influences like captains recruiting or planned self-rates for going to nationals? I'd say maybe 1-3 per team, naturally, unless a whole group of tennis on campus players ended up in the same city and formed a full team. I mean div 1 players, an entire team, can't self rate at 4.0 or 4.5 can they?

Anyway, since you guys are looking at the teams already, you might have this info in your head. How many self rates are on these teams, is it an unusual amount compared to my fantasy-land scenario? I've played some state tourneys the past two seasons and only played against self rates, but figured it was a little bit of luck or coincidence.

I only count "new" S's, i.e. those who have never been rated (as far as I can tell). I don't count guys who are S's just because their previous rating expired. I assume this is the basis you're looking for.

Intermountain stands apart, with 10 such S's. The other teams range from 0 to 4, with an average of 2.

 

[Creighton]

I only count "new" S's, i.e. those who have never been rated (as far as I can tell). I don't count guys who are S's just because their previous rating expired. I assume this is the basis you're looking for.

Intermountain stands apart, with 10 such S's. The other teams range from 0 to 4, with an average of 2.

Jesus 10 self rates. No way they lose this thing.

 

[schmke]

I just posted my predictions from my simulation, looks to be a very tight competition with 14 of the teams having schedule strengths from 3.98 to 4.02. A big tie at 3-1 is likely, but Texas, Middle West, MoValley, and Middle States appear most likely to advance, SoCal, Eastern, Northern, Florida, and New England most likely to spoil the party.

Early results have Northern, Middle West, Southwest, Texas, and Middle States all winning. MoValley, New England, SoCal, and Intermountain still to play.

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

I only count "new" S's, i.e. those who have never been rated (as far as I can tell). I don't count guys who are S's just because their previous rating expired. I assume this is the basis you're looking for.

Intermountain stands apart, with 10 such S's. The other teams range from 0 to 4, with an average of 2.

Jesus 10 self rates. No way they lose this thing.

Interesting, thanks for the information. Yeah, I was wondering if there were multiple teams of 6 or more, like a core group of ringers, 10 was even beyond my imagination.

 

[syshy111]

FL gave Texas all they wanted. Had their chances.

 

[JLyon]

Texas is Texas, singles player that is an 8.8, lost a 3 setter at 4.5 nationals, but is playing 4.0
another singles player is 8.1
Watch out for #2D player who sneaks in playing only 4 matches, was a 1-0 ret and one was def.
Gotta give Freeman credit he knows how to bend the rules greatly, even taking players from outside 50 mi radius, which I thought was a rule in TX for limits.
Most 4.5's are UTR 7.5 - 8.5 roughly, with National Levels high 8's and 9's

SW has an 8.2 Singles player, combined 19-1 (S/D)
MW 8.2 singles 9/0 singles, recent HS grad

 

[syshy111]

Texas is Texas, singles player that is an 8.8, lost a 3 setter at 4.5 nationals, but is playing 4.0
another singles player is 8.1
Watch out for #2D player who sneaks in playing only 4 matches, was a 1-0 ret and one was def.
Gotta give Freeman credit he knows how to bend the rules greatly, even taking players from outside 50 mi radius, which I thought was a rule in TX for limits.
Most 4.5's are UTR 7.5 - 8.5 roughly, with National Levels high 8's and 9's

SW has an 8.2 Singles player, combined 19-1 (S/D)
MW 8.2 singles 9/0 singles, recent HS grad

They lost 3-2 to northern

 

[Vox Rationis]

They lost 3-2 to northern

Good

 

[schmke]

I just posted my predictions from my simulation, looks to be a very tight competition with 14 of the teams having schedule strengths from 3.98 to 4.02. A big tie at 3-1 is likely, but Texas, Middle West, MoValley, and Middle States appear most likely to advance, SoCal, Eastern, Northern, Florida, and New England most likely to spoil the party.

Everyone but SoCal and Hawaii have played (why does the USTA have a schedule where some teams play twice before two teams have played at all ...) and:

Northern and Southwest both 2-0.
Intermountain, Southern, Middle West, Eastern all 1-0
Texas and Middle States 1-1

A long ways to go still. But the simulation now says Northern, Intermountain, Middle West, and Texas are most likely to advance with Eastern right there.

 

[schmke]

They lost 3-2 to northern

In part because they didn't play a great line-up.

Two of their top-4 haven't played yet, whether not there or saving them I don't know. And four of their lowest rated five have played, one of them twice.

This is the wildcard in trying to predict things. Who is there, how are the line-ups rolled out, and is fitness a factor either in sitting guys or guys running out of steam at the end.

 

[JLyon]

Good

They lost 3-2 to northern

wow they put their singles stud into doubles, does not make sense, of course 3D loses after winning set 1 6/0
Also the SW Singles player cruises again 1/0

 

[Vox Rationis]

wow they put their singles stud into doubles, does not make sense, of course 3D loses after winning set 1 6/0
Also the SW Singles player cruises again 1/0

Yeah absolutely horrendous line up for whatever reason. Not surprised they lost in a breaker after seeing that.

 

[McLovin]

Stopped by this afternoon to chat w/ my daughter. We saw a “4.0” lady warming up on the sidewalk, and I commented to my wife “she doesn’t look like a 4.0”. We watched her start her match, and she took the 1st set 6-0. Her ground strokes were better than some 4.5 men I know.

After we learned her name, we looked her up online. How does a past 4-star recruit, who at one point was ranked 2nd in her state, 3rd in her region, and 97th in the country during her senior year in high school “self rate” as a 4.0, and not get called on it?

 

[BeyondTheTape]

For anyone who's folllowing predictions, after Day 1:
2-0 Intermountain
2-0 Northern
2-0 Southern
2-0 Southwest

 

[JLyon]

Stopped by this afternoon to chat w/ my daughter. We saw a “4.0” lady warming up on the sidewalk, and I commented to my wife “she doesn’t look like a 4.0”. We watched her start her match, and she took the 1st set 6-0. Her ground strokes were better than some 4.5 men I know.

After we learned her name, we looked her up online. How does a past 4-star recruit, who at one point was ranked 2nd in her state, 3rd in her region, and 97th in the country during her senior year in high school “self rate” as a 4.0, and not get called on it?

its the USTA way, not be fully truthful on self-rates and get a pass because Sections and Districts would rather charge for Grievances than do their jobs when these issues are pointed out.

 

[syshy111]

Intermountain looks like a college team

 

[Creighton]

Intermountain looks like a college team

Are you there?

 

[McLovin]

Intermountain looks like a college team

Is that the team from Utah?

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

Intermountain looks like a college team

University of Phoenix? (had to look it up, I mean the online one, not the private one in phoenix lol)

 

[craze]

Northern just took care of Eastern, joins the college kids of Intermountain at 3-0

 

[Vox Rationis]

Oh my Southern beat Texas's best line up 3-2. Texas is out. Congrats @syshy111 that's a huge win!

 

[schmke]

And Middle States beat Southwest. A 3-1 team will make the semis, and could get in with only an 11-9 individual court record.

 

[ttwarrior1]

dont sleep on any teams from kentucky

 

[syshy111]

Are you there?

Yep

Is that the team from Utah?

yea

Oh my Southern beat Texas's best line up 3-2. Texas is out. Congrats @syshy111 that's a huge win!

Thanks! Our doubles lines are clutch. Won 2 3rd set TB 10-8

 

[Zman]

syshy111: Congrats on beating Texas! It seems like it's been years since Mr. Freeman had a team that tried to win but didn't at least make the national semis.

Did you get a chance to watch the singles ringer from Middle West? If so, I'd be interested to hear thoughts about how he would stack up against the Texas or Intermountain singles ringers. I watched him crush everyone at sectionals, and I'm curious whether the top singles ringers at nationals are even beyond his level.

 

[BeyondTheTape]

has inclement weather been a factor at any Nationals sites this year compared to previous fiascos?

 

[syshy111]

syshy111: Congrats on beating Texas! It seems like it's been years since Mr. Freeman had a team that tried to win but didn't at least make the national semis.

Did you get a chance to watch the singles ringer from Middle West? If so, I'd be interested to hear thoughts about how he would stack up against the Texas or Intermountain singles ringers. I watched him crush everyone at sectionals, and I'm curious whether the top singles ringers at nationals are even beyond his level.

I didn’t see him. The 1 singles for TX was the beat singles guy I saw

 

[syshy111]

has inclement weather been a factor at any Nationals sites this year compared to previous fiascos?

It has been windy but no rain to speak of. No complaints on weather

 

[Zman]

I didn’t see him. The 1 singles for TX was the beat singles guy I saw

It's kind of amazing that that TX guy was 1-3 in the 2019 3.5 regular season, and his 3.5 team only played him at doubles in the playoffs (where he went 9-0 at doubles). But then this year he was competitive at *4.5* nationals, and dominant at 4.0 nationals. That's quite an improvement from being a weak regular-season 3.5.

 

[McLovin]

Yep

yea

Thanks! Our doubles lines are clutch. Won 2 3rd set TB 10-8

We were there this morning (our daughter was working the tournament desk), and she was telling us the story behind the Utah team.

Also got to watch the Caribbean team win a doubles match 13-11 in the TB. They were quite entertaining.

 

[Vox Rationis]

she was telling us the story behind the Utah team.

What's the story?

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

It's kind of amazing that that TX guy was 1-3 in the 2019 3.5 regular season, and his 3.5 team only played him at doubles in the playoffs (where he went 9-0 at doubles). But then this year he was competitive at *4.5* nationals, and dominant at 4.0 nationals. That's quite an improvement from being a weak regular-season 3.5.

Who is it, I'm too internet challenged, maybe lazy, to look it up.

 

[Zman]

Who is it, I'm too internet challenged, maybe lazy, to look it up.

Luc Thomas

 

[Zman]

After PNW won only 3 courts total (out of 15) in their first three matches, they won 3 in their last match to beat MidAtlantic and end MidAtlantic's season (actually MidAtlantic needed to win 4-1 to advance to the semifinals). So Middle West slides into the semis and a likely date with Intermountain.

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

Luc Thomas

Since you got the USTA part covered, I will just add that he was a 3.5, I guess self-rate in 2019 and now is a UTR 8, he seem legitimately French, probably got a job in Houston. He is the ultimate ringer, whatever tennis accolades he had in France, the USTA would never know.

 

[Vox Rationis]

Did you get a chance to watch the singles ringer from Middle West? If so, I'd be interested to hear thoughts about how he would stack up against the Texas or Intermountain singles ringers. I watched him crush everyone at sectionals, and I'm curious whether the top singles ringers at nationals are even beyond his level.

So Middle West slides into the semis and a likely date with Intermountain.

You're about to find out. My guess is he was a top 4 singles player at nationals. Only Texas, Intermountain, and Southwest maybe had someone better. So Cal did too but I just noticed he got DQ'd and couldn't play this weekend.

 

[schmke]

A number of ringers, some even C rates. A big part of the issue is a 2-year rating period. A lot of these players would have been bumped up at 2020 year-end and wouldn't be at this Nationals. Give players 2 years to improve, you will have some wildly out of level.