2021 Final Stretch

[James P]

This is how the points are divvied up the rest of the season. Players in bold are shutdown for the remainder of the season. Medvedev has by far the most points to defend with 3,840. Rublev needs only earn 6 points the remainder of the season to remain ahead of Nadal, Berrettini needs to earn 438 to pass him. Thiem and Federer are set to be passed by four people for sure (Ruud, FAA, Hurkacz, and Sinner). Others that very well might also pass them include Garin, Shapovalov, RBA, Schwartzman, and PCB. Further down, De Minaur is in danger of falling out of the top 30 with a relatively (to his ATP points total) high amount of points to defend. PCB and Schwartzman are also defending a lot. Further down, Dimitrov, Humbert, and Khachanov are defending relatively high amounts. It'll be fun to see how this all plays out. Reminder, Paris and the ATP Finals are both defending two editions ('19 and '20), so there's the added pressure of multiple champions/runners up, etc.

Rank	Name	Nation	DOB	ATP Points 9/13/21	ATP Points Dropping in 2021	Excess Points Extra Tournaments	Minimum ATP Points 12/31/21
1​	Novak Djokovic	SRB	05/22/87	12,133​	2,193​	0​	9,940​
2​	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	02/11/96	10,780​	3,840​	10​	6,950​
3​	Stefanos Tsitsipas	GRE	08/12/98	8,350​	2,320​	420​	6,450​
4​	Alexander Zverev	GER	04/20/97	7,760​	2,280​	20​	5,500​
5​	Andrey Rublev	RUS	10/20/97	6,130​	1,540​	280​	4,870​
6​	Rafael Nadal	ESP	06/03/86	5,815​	940​	0​	4,875​
7​	Matteo Berrettini	ITA	04/12/96	5,173​	750​	15​	4,438​
8​	Dominic Thiem	AUT	09/03/93	4,995​	2,570​	0​	2,425​
9​	Roger Federer	SUI	08/08/81	3,765​	1,380​	0​	2,385​
10​	Casper Ruud	NOR	12/22/98	3,440​	35​	45​	3,450​
11​	Felix Auger-Aliassime	CAN	08/08/00	3,368​	285​	113​	3,196​
12​	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	04/15/99	3,310​	1,165​	124​	2,269​
13​	Hubert Hurkacz	POL	02/11/97	3,128​	280​	115​	2,963​
14​	Jannik Sinner	ITA	08/16/01	2,895​	555​	107​	2,447​
15​	Diego Schwartzman	ARG	08/16/92	2,800​	685​	79​	2,194​
16​	Pablo Carreno Busta	ESP	07/12/91	2,650​	725​	81​	2,006​
17​	Cristian Garin	CHI	05/30/96	2,510​	270​	91​	2,331​
18​	Roberto Bautista Agut	ESP	04/14/88	2,405​	370​	225​	2,260​
19​	Reilly Opelka	USA	08/28/97	2,341​	495​	0​	1,846​
20​	Gael Monfils	FRA	09/01/86	2,233​	540​	10​	1,703​
21​	Alex De Minaur	AUS	02/17/99	2,218​	845​	73​	1,446​
22​	John Isner	USA	04/26/85	2,171​	235​	10​	1,946​
23​	Daniel Evans	GBR	05/23/90	2,164​	335​	63​	1,892​
24​	Lorenzo Sonego	ITA	05/11/95	2,097​	405​	45​	1,737​
25​	Aslan Karatsev	RUS	09/04/93	2,074​	118​	37​	1,993​
26​	Ugo Humbert	FRA	06/26/98	2,045​	575​	88​	1,558​
27​	Karen Khachanov	RUS	05/21/96	1,965​	550​	131​	1,546​
28​	Cameron Norrie	GBR	08/23/95	1,930​	225​	83​	1,788​
29​	Grigor Dimitrov	BUL	05/16/91	1,836​	585​	20​	1,271​
30​	David Goffin	BEL	12/07/90	1,766​	325​	35​	1,476​

 

[ffw2]

Believe Medvedev's effectively conceded YE #1.

 

[pj80]

 

[James P]

Believe Medvedev's effectively conceded YE #1.

This wasn't really meant to be about just Medvedev, rather the complexion of the top 30 and how it might change, but yeah, it's really not feasible for him to do it this year.

Cool breakdown. Basically what I did, but in video format. Interesting, the concept of the "split #1," had considered it, but didn't think about the controversial nature of it until he mentioned it. That would be bizarre. FWIW, I don't think Medvedev will get close in either rankings or race.

 

[Amen786]

This is how the points are divvied up the rest of the season. Players in bold are shutdown for the remainder of the season. Medvedev has by far the most points to defend with 3,840. Rublev needs only earn 6 points the remainder of the season to remain ahead of Nadal, Berrettini needs to earn 438 to pass him. Thiem and Federer are set to be passed by four people for sure (Ruud, FAA, Hurkacz, and Sinner). Others that very well might also pass them include Garin, Shapovalov, RBA, Schwartzman, and PCB. Further down, De Minaur is in danger of falling out of the top 30 with a relatively (to his ATP points total) high amount of points to defend. PCB and Schwartzman are also defending a lot. Further down, Dimitrov, Humbert, and Khachanov are defending relatively high amounts. It'll be fun to see how this all plays out. Reminder, Paris and the ATP Finals are both defending two editions ('19 and '20), so there's the added pressure of multiple champions/runners up, etc.

Rank	Name	Nation	DOB	ATP Points 9/13/21	ATP Points Dropping in 2021	Excess Points Extra Tournaments	Minimum ATP Points 12/31/21
1​	Novak Djokovic	SRB	05/22/87	12,133​	2,193​	0​	9,940​
2​	Daniil Medvedev	RUS	02/11/96	10,780​	3,840​	10​	6,950​
3​	Stefanos Tsitsipas	GRE	08/12/98	8,350​	2,320​	420​	6,450​
4​	Alexander Zverev	GER	04/20/97	7,760​	2,280​	20​	5,500​
5​	Andrey Rublev	RUS	10/20/97	6,130​	1,540​	280​	4,870​
6​	Rafael Nadal	ESP	06/03/86	5,815​	940​	0​	4,875​
7​	Matteo Berrettini	ITA	04/12/96	5,173​	750​	15​	4,438​
8​	Dominic Thiem	AUT	09/03/93	4,995​	2,570​	0​	2,425​
9​	Roger Federer	SUI	08/08/81	3,765​	1,380​	0​	2,385​
10​	Casper Ruud	NOR	12/22/98	3,440​	35​	45​	3,450​
11​	Felix Auger-Aliassime	CAN	08/08/00	3,368​	285​	113​	3,196​
12​	Denis Shapovalov	CAN	04/15/99	3,310​	1,165​	124​	2,269​
13​	Hubert Hurkacz	POL	02/11/97	3,128​	280​	115​	2,963​
14​	Jannik Sinner	ITA	08/16/01	2,895​	555​	107​	2,447​
15​	Diego Schwartzman	ARG	08/16/92	2,800​	685​	79​	2,194​
16​	Pablo Carreno Busta	ESP	07/12/91	2,650​	725​	81​	2,006​
17​	Cristian Garin	CHI	05/30/96	2,510​	270​	91​	2,331​
18​	Roberto Bautista Agut	ESP	04/14/88	2,405​	370​	225​	2,260​
19​	Reilly Opelka	USA	08/28/97	2,341​	495​	0​	1,846​
20​	Gael Monfils	FRA	09/01/86	2,233​	540​	10​	1,703​
21​	Alex De Minaur	AUS	02/17/99	2,218​	845​	73​	1,446​
22​	John Isner	USA	04/26/85	2,171​	235​	10​	1,946​
23​	Daniel Evans	GBR	05/23/90	2,164​	335​	63​	1,892​
24​	Lorenzo Sonego	ITA	05/11/95	2,097​	405​	45​	1,737​
25​	Aslan Karatsev	RUS	09/04/93	2,074​	118​	37​	1,993​
26​	Ugo Humbert	FRA	06/26/98	2,045​	575​	88​	1,558​
27​	Karen Khachanov	RUS	05/21/96	1,965​	550​	131​	1,546​
28​	Cameron Norrie	GBR	08/23/95	1,930​	225​	83​	1,788​
29​	Grigor Dimitrov	BUL	05/16/91	1,836​	585​	20​	1,271​
30​	David Goffin	BEL	12/07/90	1,766​	325​	35​	1,476​

What joy do you get in writing month before day??

 

[James P]

What joy do you get in writing month before day??

I guess the joy of pissing off non-Americans? I dunno.

 

[Amen786]

I guess the joy of pissing off non-Americans? I dunno.

Why bro why is that!?

 

[James P]

Thiem and Federer are about three and a half weeks away from dropping out of the top 10. Federer might drop out post-IW, Thiem will do so the week after.