2022 Astana Open

Who will win the tournament?

  • Carlos Alcaraz

    Votes: 11 26.2%
  • Daniil Medvedev

    Votes: 2 4.8%
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas

    Votes: 1 2.4%
  • Novak Djokovic

    Votes: 20 47.6%
  • Andrey Rublev

    Votes: 1 2.4%
  • Hubert Hurkacz

    Votes: 2 4.8%
  • Jannik Sinner

    Votes: 3 7.1%
  • Felix Auger-Aliassime

    Votes: 2 4.8%
  • Other (please specify in thread)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    42
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Guest
The draw is coming out tomorrow. The entrants as of today (Friday) include the top 8 seeds:

1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Daniil Medvedev
3. Stefanos Tsitsipas
4. Novak Djokovic
5. Andrey Rublev
6. Hurbert Hurkacz
7. Jannik Sinner
8. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Other entrants: Marin Cilic, Karen Khachanov, Francis Cerundolo, Roberto Bautista Agut, Grigor Dimitrov, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Lorenzo Musetti, Holger Rune, Maxime Cressy, Botic Van De Zandschulp, Aslan Karatsev, Cristian Garin, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Mikhael Kukushkin, Albert Ramos Vinolas, Adrian Mannarino, Oscar Otte, Alexander Bublik, and Tallon Griekspoor.
 

MilosRaonicFan

New User
Tough call, feels like any of the seeds could win the tournament. Djokovic should be the favorite in theory, but I have my doubts Djokovic can win 9 matches (assuming he wins Tel Aviv) in 12 days, especially against the quality of opposition he is likely to come up against in Astana.
 

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
Wow what a strong field. You could conceivably see any of the top 8 seeds winning it, then guys like Cilic, Bublik, Khachanov, Karatsev etc all have indoor titles in recent years too. Hell even Dimi is a YEC winner
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Guest
The draw is out! I am very happy with Carlos's draw; 1st round: Holger Rune; 2nd round: Mannarino or Wawrinka; QF: Rublev, Karatsev, or a qualifier (2); Semis: Tsitsipas, Hurkacz, Cilic, Bublik, Cerundolo, Griekspoor, Kukushkin or a qualifier.

On the other side of the draw: Djokovic, Medvedev, Sinner, Auger-Aliassime, Khachanov, Van De Zandschulp, Bautista-Agut, Ramos Vinolas, Davidovich Fokina, Ruusuvuori, Huesler, Cressy, Garin, Zhakayev, Otte, or a qualifier!

I think Carlos will most likely make it to the final. The battle on the bottom half will be fascinating - four really strong players in that half of the draw.
 

ultimathule

Hall of Fame
The draw is out! I am very happy with Carlos's draw; 1st round: Holger Rune; 2nd round: Mannarino or Wawrinka; QF: Rublev, Karatsev, or a qualifier (2); Semis: Tsitsipas, Hurkacz, Cilic, Bublik, Cerundolo, Griekspoor, Kukushkin or a qualifier.

On the other side of the draw: Djokovic, Medvedev, Sinner, Auger-Aliassime, Khachanov, Van De Zandschulp, Bautista-Agut, Ramos Vinolas, Davidovich Fokina, Ruusuvuori, Huesler, Cressy, Garin, Zhakayev, Otte, or a qualifier!

I think Carlos will most likely make it to the final. The battle on the bottom half will be fascinating - four really strong players in that half of the draw.
What a relatively easy draw for Alcaraz. The perks of being the number one seed, I guess. (He is the number one seed, isn't he?)
 

Baseline_Bungle

Hall of Fame
@Baseline_Bungle what are his chances of making it to Turin?

I mean, I suppose it's mathematically still possible but realistically, after today, I would say his chances equal a resounding ZERO. And I really don't think he should be worrying about that either - even though he's under enormous pressure from the fans and media here in IT. He needs to work on his body, his game, and try to recapture the pleasure of playing tennis, which he really seems to have lost in recent months. He looks miserable on the court to me.
 

dking68

Legend
I mean, I suppose it's mathematically still possible but realistically, after today, I would say his chances equal a resounding ZERO. And I really don't think he should be worrying about that either - even though he's under enormous pressure from the fans and media here in IT. He needs to work on his body, his game, and try to recapture the pleasure of playing tennis, which he really seems to have lost in recent months. He looks miserable on the court to me.
He threw away too many opportunities this year, even when he was fully fit, he played horribly in Canada/Cincinnatti and i had pegged him to win one of those and he disappointed me greatly. Also missed too many tournaments this year. Hopefully him missing out on Turin AGAIN will push him to higher heights
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
I mean, I suppose it's mathematically still possible but realistically, after today, I would say his chances equal a resounding ZERO. And I really don't think he should be worrying about that either - even though he's under enormous pressure from the fans and media here in IT. He needs to work on his body, his game, and try to recapture the pleasure of playing tennis, which he really seems to have lost in recent months. He looks miserable on the court to me.
He's got plenty of time, yet. It does seem like he ought to have been in the top 8 this year, though.
 

Lauren_Girl'

Professional
Alcaraz still has very little experience in Indoors hard courts. He played Vienna last year (beat Berrettini 7-6 in the 3rd and then lost to Zverev) and Paris-Bercy (lost to Gaston). And he just lost to Auger-Aliassime in Davis Cup. That's it. He has not played anything else (I don't count the NextGen Masters in Milan). His draw isn't easy with Rune and Wawrinka in R1 and R2.

Sinner won't even play after what happened in Sofia.

Maybe I'm biased, but I'll still pick Djokovic. He's now on a 10 matchs streak and indoors is one of his favorite surfaces.
He will face Garin (weak HC player), BVDZ (poor form), probably Khachanov or Cressy in QF. Very doable.
I don't see him losing to Medvedev from 2022. The biggest threat for him will be Auger-Aliassime.
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Guest
Refresh my memory: how do they decide on the "lucky loser" to replace Jannik Sinner in the draw? I think I remember it is the player from the qualifiers who won the most games during their losing last qualifying match? I can't quite remember how exactly it is done...
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Guest
Carlos's most likely path to the final: Rune; Wawrinka; Rublev; and Tsitsipas (semi)

Tsitsipas's most likely path to the final: Kukushkin; a qualifier or a lucky loser; Hurkacz; and Alcaraz (semi)

Hurkacz's most likely path to the final: Cerundolo; Bublik; Tsitsipas; and Alcaraz (semi)

Cilic's most likely path to the final: Otte; Khachanov; Djokovic; and Medvedev (semi)

Djokovic's most likely path to the final: Garin; Van De Zandschulp; Cilic; and Medvedev (semi)

Auger-Aliassime's most likely path to the final: Bautista Agut; Davidovich Fokina; Medvedev; and Djokovic (semi)

Medvedev's most likely path to the final: Ramos-Vinolas; Huesler or Ruusuvuori; Auger-Aliassime; and Djokovic (semi)

Of course there will be upsets but it's fun to take a look at how the draws look before a tournament begins! I think it's obvious who I am rooting for!!!!
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Refresh my memory: how do they decide on the "lucky loser" to replace Jannik Sinner in the draw? I think I remember it is the player from the qualifiers who won the most games during their losing last qualifying match? I can't quite remember how exactly it is done...
No, it is determined by the ranking used to seed the qualies (week before the qualies draw). Highest ranking is first seed.

It’s slightly different at slams where they do a random draw of the top four ranked players to lose 3R qualies.
 

Baseline_Bungle

Hall of Fame
No, it is determined by the ranking used to seed the qualies (week before the qualies draw). Highest ranking is first seed.

It’s slightly different at slams where they do a random draw of the top four ranked players to lose 3R qualies.

They do a draw in ATPs as well, to avoid players tanking in the quali round when they already know there will be at least one LL, as was the case this week. Indeed, the LL spot did not go to top ranked/top seeded Goffin but to the Russian Kotov. The draw is between X number of players (based on seeding), where X equals number of LL spots + 1.
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
They do a draw in ATPs as well, to avoid players tanking in the quali round when they already know there will be at least one LL, as was the case this week. Indeed, the LL spot did not go to top ranked/top seeded Goffin but to the Russian Kotov. The draw is between X number of players (based on seeding), where X equals number of LL spots + 1.
Those are welcome changes for sure. However, they are very recent changes slow in coming to reality.

I read the ATP rule book from 2021 (Section 7.20) before I posted. There is no mention of the formula you cite. The closing paragraph of that section pertains to Challengers 80-125, where there is a 2-man random draw.

Perhaps ATP liked the process tested at the lower level and changed it to the system you describe. If that’s the case it’s new territory for them. ATP has been glacier-slow to react to the dangers of tanking when compared to ITF, who instituted the random draw (Gimelstob Rule) all the way back in 2006 following top-seed Justin Gimelstob playing just one game before retiring in his final round Wimbledon’05 qualifying match, getting in as LL and eventually making 3R. Perhaps the new ATP change was instituted after the obvious 0&2 qualifying tank by Attila Balazs at Rio’20 to Mager. He got in, made the SFs and then lost a competitive 6-7 6-4 6-7 battle with the same Mager. Maybe TIA had a chat with new ATP chairman Andrea Gaudenzi over lattes in London and a suggestion was made this crap has to stop.
 

Baseline_Bungle

Hall of Fame
Those are welcome changes for sure. However, they are very recent changes slow in coming to reality.

I read the ATP rule book from 2021 (Section 7.20) before I posted. There is no mention of the formula you cite. The closing paragraph of that section pertains to Challengers 80-125, where there is a 2-man random draw.

Perhaps ATP liked the process tested at the lower level and changed it to the system you describe. If that’s the case it’s new territory for them. ATP has been glacier-slow to react to the dangers of tanking when compared to ITF, who instituted the random draw (Gimelstob Rule) all the way back in 2006 following top-seed Justin Gimelstob playing just one game before retiring in his final round Wimbledon’05 qualifying match, getting in as LL and eventually making 3R. Perhaps the new ATP change was instituted after the obvious 0&2 qualifying tank by Attila Balazs at Rio’20 to Mager. He got in, made the SFs and then lost a competitive 6-7 6-4 6-7 battle with the same Mager. Maybe TIA had a chat with new ATP chairman Andrea Gaudenzi over lattes in London and a suggestion was made this crap has to stop.

Actually I DO see it right there in section 7.20, though the wording is indeed pss-poor. Midway through the main paragraph:

If there is a vacancy in the main draw when qualifying is completed then the order of the two (2) highest ranked players shall be randomly drawn, thereafter the order shall follow the players’ rankings, unless there are two (2) or more withdrawals at the time the Qualifying competition is fi nished in which case the size of the random draw will be the number of withdrawals plus one (1)

 
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DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
Carlos's most likely path to the final: Rune; Wawrinka; Rublev; and Tsitsipas (semi)

Tsitsipas's most likely path to the final: Kukushkin; a qualifier or a lucky loser; Hurkacz; and Alcaraz (semi)

Hurkacz's most likely path to the final: Cerundolo; Bublik; Tsitsipas; and Alcaraz (semi)

Cilic's most likely path to the final: Otte; Khachanov; Djokovic; and Medvedev (semi)

Djokovic's most likely path to the final: Garin; Van De Zandschulp; Cilic; and Medvedev (semi)

Auger-Aliassime's most likely path to the final: Bautista Agut; Davidovich Fokina; Medvedev; and Djokovic (semi)

Medvedev's most likely path to the final: Ramos-Vinolas; Huesler or Ruusuvuori; Auger-Aliassime; and Djokovic (semi)

Of course there will be upsets but it's fun to take a look at how the draws look before a tournament begins! I think it's obvious who I am rooting for!!!!
No, please, not again!
:sick:
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Actually I DO see it right there in section 7.20, though the wording is indeed pss-poor. Midway through the main paragraph:

If there is a vacancy in the main draw when qualifying is completed then the order of the two (2) highest ranked players shall be randomly drawn, thereafter the order shall follow the players’ rankings, unless there are two (2) or more withdrawals at the time the Qualifying competition is fi nished in which case the size of the random draw will be the number of withdrawals plus one (1)

Yes, thanks for pointing out the ATP burial of that random aspect. They also don’t clearly delineate that process from the straight up assignment of LL slots that open up after the first match begins.

I now see that the “n+1” arrangement can only work where there is a fixed “n”, i.e. the number of players who withdraw before play begins. For example, if two players withdraw before qualification is concluded then there are three players involved in the random selection of the two replacements. At Astana, it was two names for one slot.

It’s only after MD play commences, when further withdrawals sometimes trickle in, that it reverts to pure ranking meritocracy. That would mean Goffin is first on the list beginning Monday, followed by Celibilek and Nedovysev. Or, at least, that’s what it seems to be trying to articulate.
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Karatsev is circling the drain now, losing to Zhang from a set up. The winless streak has reached five. He is 1-9 since winning twice at Hamburg.

But his calves are still UUUGGGEEE!
 

Baseline_Bungle

Hall of Fame
In other news, Rune has pulled out so Goffin gets a LL spot after all.

Looks like the Dane wasn't too thrilled by the idea of flying all the way to Kazakhstan, after his long week in Sofia, just for a quick hello/goodbye with Juice Boy.
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
In other news, Rune has pulled out so Goffin gets a LL spot after all.

Looks like the Dane wasn't too thrilled by the idea of flying all the way to Kazakhstan, after his long week in Sofia, just for a quick hello/goodbye with Juice Boy.
Did he cite where he’s injured? I’m guessing it’s his pride, which has some significant dimensions vulnerable to being bruised. Do the trip, enjoy the scenery and collect the minimum $15K paycheck for your learning experience in the first full fledged h2h with the new #1 dude. If you could take a set from then #1 Joe Kovic at USO’21, you just might have some luck this week.
 

PSNELKE

Legend
FAA has no chance unless he serves like a demigod and takes it to two TBs now. As soon as his 1st serve doesn't land and it goes to rallies, he has no chance
 

AM75

Hall of Fame
Karatsev‘s 15 minutes are sadly over.He should go back to challengers where he belongs.
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
It's probably the match fixing allegations
That will always be your explanation.

How about it maybe being it really is that he was never that good? Maybe the big but temporary success was due to his decision to base himself at Saddlebrook in Tampa during the pandemic, win 20 matches in simulated tournament conditions in less than a month and then take that confidence and translate it into a fantastic next six months? Then the realities of the ATP world tour grind set in. Before pandemic, this guy was a mediocre Challenger grinder. For a wonderful 9 months he was in a zone. Now he has fallen to Earth. Reality has set in.

It’s not always about your nefarious match fixing conspiracy, Mr. Tin Foil Hat. More often, it’s all about a combination of talent, coaching and pure will to succeed. My suspicion is the financial success generated by the good streak of wins has eroded the will to succeed in Karatsev and he has little going on in the box to retrieve the winning formula. Sobkin is a mess, living on his past success with Youzhny, and not an upgrade from Jan de Witt. Like I said, circling the drain but not due to the betting syndicate.
 

PSNELKE

Legend
As predicted RBA wins the TB. FAA just doesn't have it in him mentally. As soon as it gets to crunch time or the opponent puts some pressure on him, he is done.
 
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