2022 Indian Wells R4: Rafael Nadal [4] vs Reilly Opelka [17]

Who wins?

  • Total voters
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Jokervich

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
Nadal came through his third round match in straight sets. Opelka came from behind to win his third round match in three. H2H is 1-0 in favor of Nadal (Rome last year).

What do you think result will be? Poll included.
 
Opelka kept the Rome SF close, 4&4, by shortening points on his serve and winning the 1-3 shot points at a 78% rate. He will try to do the same thing on Wednesday and should have more success on HC.

Opelka has actually played better since Rome’21, making the Toronto final and recently winning 7 matches in a row for the Dallas title and another final in Delray. Today, Shapo was the president of the great Dough Nation with 10 double gifts to the Big O, who got the two breaks in the match. That kind of kindness has been the Achilles heel of The Undefeated Nadal in his two matches this week with 11 points graciously dropped to Korda and Evans. If he doesn’t Scrooge up and stop the giving it could be the deciding factor on even the slowest of HCs. Opelka in 3, two TB minimum.
 
The greatest returner of all time (source; clayqueen) will neutralise the servebot
 
TheNachoMan said:
The greatest returner of all time (source; clayqueen)
Click to expand...
Are you kidding, she actually said that? :-D:-D

This guy says hello...

images
 
I think this matchup should suit Nadal. Yes Opelka is playing better since they last met in 2021 but then so is Nadal. Especially his serve has improved considerably. I think Reilly will find it hard to break Nadal's serve. The best bet for him is to take the sets to tiebreak.
The court being on the slower side should favor Nadal. Reilly is prone to making errors in longer rallies and I expect Nadal to straight set him.
Nonetheless the match up will be very interesting tactics wise.
 
deliberate23stranger said:
Has anybody ever had a better record vs. big servers than Nadal?
Click to expand...
Murray does, for one.

As for Andre, I would really like to see Nadal attempt to return Pete, Goran, and Becker's serves on the fastest court he's ever seen in his life though.

There are elements of tennis that go beyond statistics. The sport is so surface, technology, and opponent dependent. You must use nuance and the eye test, it is inescapable.

Andre's returning prowess is one of those elements.
 
Murray doesn't have a better record vs. Big Servers than Nadal.
Anyone else?

Murray leads Raonic 9-4
Murray leads Isner 8-0
Murray leads Karlovic 7-0

Nadal leads Raonic 8-2
Nadal leads Isner 7-1 (but isner's only win was at the Laver Cup)
Nadal leads Karlovic 5-0

You don't have to look at the stats to know Agassi gets aced far too often.
 
deliberate23stranger said:
Murray doesn't have a better record vs. Big Servers than Nadal.
Anyone else?

Murray leads Raonic 9-4
Murray leads Isner 8-0
Murray leads Karlovic 7-0

Nadal leads Raonic 8-2
Nadal leads Isner 7-1 (but isner's only win was at the Laver Cup)
Nadal leads Karlovic 5-0

You don't have to look at the stats to know Agassi gets aced far too often.
Click to expand...
roflmao, nice cherrypicking. I know you have an unhealthy obsession with Nadal, but that doesn't mean you are allowed to twist facts.

It is at least even, and if you were to include just Kyrgios and Muller (in a biased way, to make a point, as you have done) Murray would actually lead.

let's add: Kyrgios (5-1 Murray, 5-3 Nadal)
Roddick (8-3 Murray, 7-3 Nadal)
Gilles Muller (there's a reason you forgot him, 5-0 Murray, 4-2 Nadal)
Kevin Anderson (5-0 Nadal, 6-2 Murray - this is one where Nadal has the clear advantage)
Sam Querrey (5-1 Nadal, 7-2 Murray)

and just for fun:
Tsonga (14-2 Murray, 10-4 Nadal)
 
Kralingen said:
roflmao, nice cherrypicking. I know you have an unhealthy obsession with Nadal, but that doesn't mean you are allowed to twist facts.

It is at least even, and if you were to include just Kyrgios and Muller (in a biased way, to make a point, as you have done) Murray would actually lead.

let's add: Kyrgios (5-1 Murray, 5-3 Nadal)
Roddick (8-3 Murray, 7-3 Nadal)
Gilles Muller (there's a reason you forgot him, 5-0 Murray, 4-2 Nadal)
Kevin Anderson (5-0 Nadal, 6-2 Murray - this is one where Nadal has the clear advantage)
Sam Querrey (5-1 Nadal, 7-2 Murray)

and just for fun:
Tsonga (14-2 Murray, 10-4 Nadal)
Click to expand...
So you just proved that Murray doesn't have a better record vs. Big Servers than Nadal....
That's exactly what I said-
deliberate23stranger said:
Murray doesn't have a better record vs. Big Servers than Nadal.
Click to expand...
 
deliberate23stranger said:
Murray doesn't have a better record vs. Big Servers than Nadal.
Anyone else?

Murray leads Raonic 9-4
Murray leads Isner 8-0
Murray leads Karlovic 7-0

Nadal leads Raonic 8-2
Nadal leads Isner 7-1 (but isner's only win was at the Laver Cup)
Nadal leads Karlovic 5-0

You don't have to look at the stats to know Agassi gets aced far too often.
Click to expand...


You mean Nadal leads Isner 7-0
 
Nadal - GOAT said:
I think this matchup should suit Nadal. Yes Opelka is playing better since they last met in 2021 but then so is Nadal. Especially his serve has improved considerably. I think Reilly will find it hard to break Nadal's serve. The best bet for him is to take the sets to tiebreak.
The court being on the slower side should favor Nadal. Reilly is prone to making errors in longer rallies and I expect Nadal to straight set him.
Nonetheless the match up will be very interesting tactics wise.
Click to expand...
On clay at Rome on Opelka’s serve the 1-3 shot points were won by serving Opelka 78% of the time. In the 10 games Opelka served only 10 points lasted to the range of “longer rallies.” He lost 7 of those 9 points so there is no suspense to the Opelka strategy; he will serve big and hope to end points quickly.

At 43 of 60 points won on clay he was unfortunate to bunch 8 losing pouts into two games he was broken. He will look to go past 72% serve points won and take his chances on TB roulette unless Nadal gives him the extra bump on DFs that he got Monday from Shapo. It’s also the pattern The Unbeaten has fallen into early here at IW with 11 DFs in five sets. If two of those Dough Nations get bunched, watch out! Then, Reilly could win without needing TBs.
 
stringertom said:
On clay at Rome on Opelka’s serve the 1-3 shot points were won by serving Opelka 78% of the time. In the 10 games Opelka served only 10 points lasted to the range of “longer rallies.” He lost 7 of those 9 points so there is no suspense to the Opelka strategy; he will serve big and hope to end points quickly.

At 43 of 60 points won on clay he was unfortunate to bunch 8 losing pouts into two games he was broken. He will look to go past 72% serve points won and take his chances on TB roulette unless Nadal gives him the extra bump on DFs that he got Monday from Shapo. It’s also the pattern The Unbeaten has fallen into early here at IW with 11 DFs in five sets. If two of those Dough Nations get bunched, watch out! Then, Reilly could win without needing TBs.
Click to expand...
Nice insights.
I am keen to see how Nadal deals with Opelka's serve. This will be the first time they are playing in hard court and yes Opelka could win if Nadal DFs and gives free points away.
Though I feel Nadal gives away more free points against players who push him in longer rallies. He tends to try to do extra with his serve in such cases. With Opelka he should feel comfortable in rallies and thus I expect him to be solid in his service games.
 
Kralingen said:
Murray does, for one.

As for Andre, I would really like to see Nadal attempt to return Pete, Goran, and Becker's serves on the fastest court he's ever seen in his life though.

There are elements of tennis that go beyond statistics. The sport is so surface, technology, and opponent dependent. You must use nuance and the eye test, it is inescapable.

Andre's returning prowess is one of those elements.
Click to expand...

I'd be more open to this forum's proponents of the eye test if I hadn't seen them downgrade Nadal to 'untalented clown with good stamina' for years and years before finally admitting there might be something else happening there.

A lot of people have an idea about what a good shot is supposed to look like.

That isn't always what an effective shot looks like though.

While I'm very disinterested in best of all time debates on anything, there's no doubt that Nadal's return, like much else about his game around here, has been systematically underestimated because it doesn't conform to posters' personal fantasies.
 
Kralingen said:
roflmao, nice cherrypicking. I know you have an unhealthy obsession with Nadal, but that doesn't mean you are allowed to twist facts.

It is at least even, and if you were to include just Kyrgios and Muller (in a biased way, to make a point, as you have done) Murray would actually lead.

let's add: Kyrgios (5-1 Murray, 5-3 Nadal)
Roddick (8-3 Murray, 7-3 Nadal)
Gilles Muller (there's a reason you forgot him, 5-0 Murray, 4-2 Nadal)
Kevin Anderson (5-0 Nadal, 6-2 Murray - this is one where Nadal has the clear advantage)
Sam Querrey (5-1 Nadal, 7-2 Murray)

and just for fun:
Tsonga (14-2 Murray, 10-4 Nadal)
Click to expand...
C'mon Tsonga isn't a servebot lol. The only servebots imo are Karlovic, Isner, and Opelka...even Milos imo is not considered a servebot as he has more weapons than just his serve
 
This could get ugly for Rafa. Opelka has evolved pretty significantly since their last year Rome meeting and it was even difficult for Rafa to break him back then. He seems to have upped kick serves a lot so that it looks quite hard to return them on the high bouncing courts of IW. Again, could be 3 tight sets if Nadal keeps returning atrociously like he did the first two matches.
 
dapchai said:
This could get ugly for Rafa. Opelka has evolved pretty significantly since their last year Rome meeting and it was even difficult for Rafa to break him back then. He seems to have upped kick serves a lot so that it looks quite hard to return them on the high bouncing courts of IW. Again, could be 3 tight sets if Nadal keeps returning atrociously like he did the first two matches.
Click to expand...
If his foot doesn't bother him, Nadal isn't going to lose to a player as limited as Opelka.
:whistle:
 
DSH said:
If his foot doesn't bother him, Nadal isn't going to lose to a player as limited as Opelka.
:whistle:
Click to expand...
I would be more concerned about his doubles than his foot. 8 and 5 in his first two matches are not a good look on him. Opelka has produced some nasty kick serves this tournament and the big guy is able to repeat that a couple of times tonight.
 
dapchai said:
I would be more concerned about his doubles than his foot. 8 and 5 in his first two matches are not a good look on him. Opelka has produced some nasty kick serves this tournament and the big guy is able to repeat that a couple of times tonight.
Click to expand...
Nadal does not lose against that class of players so dependent on the service.
The Spanish player is synonymous with being 'clutch' at crucial moments of the match, while Opelka, like any great server, when his main weapon is neutralized by the opponent, his limited game is evidenced by lack of resources.
:D
 
Brawn vs. Brain.
reilly-opelka-en-halloween-me-disfrazaba-de-rafa-nadal-siempre-ha-sido-mi-idolo.jpg
 
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Nadal in straights. Probably 6-3, 7-6.
Opelka probably won't get any BP opportunities.
Nadal will be dialed in from the start as he always seems ready for the fight against the really tall and big servers.
 
Mike Sams said:
Nadal in straights. Probably 6-3, 7-6.
Opelka probably won't get any BP opportunities.
Nadal will be dialed in from the start as he always seems ready for the fight against the really tall and big servers.
Click to expand...
I agree it makes Nadal focus better when he knows he can't afford to lose serve..... plus he doesn't have to take risks in the rallies, so won't hit many unforced errors.
 
Rafa has faces tons of tall high power servers in his career: Del Potro, Isner, Evo, etc.. and none have beaten him! Not sure about Del Potro, maybe once in U.S. Open? But all those match, it been pretty one sided in terms of the win/loss in favorite of Rafa! The tall players know this too!
 
Harry_Wild said:
Rafa has faces tons of tall high power servers in his career: Del Potro, Isner, Evo, etc.. and none have beaten him! Not sure about Del Potro, maybe once in U.S. Open? But all those match, it been pretty one sided in terms of the win/loss in favorite of Rafa! The tall players know this too!
Click to expand...
Maybe Delpo? They are 8-6 in h2h after Delpo turned 19
 
dapchai said:
This could get ugly for Rafa. Opelka has evolved pretty significantly since their last year Rome meeting and it was even difficult for Rafa to break him back then. He seems to have upped kick serves a lot so that it looks quite hard to return them on the high bouncing courts of IW. Again, could be 3 tight sets if Nadal keeps returning atrociously like he did the first two matches.
Click to expand...
Always so pessimistic. You would think Nadal had lost every match this year judging by the posts you make.:p
 
Harry_Wild said:
Rafa has faces tons of tall high power servers in his career: Del Potro, Isner, Evo, etc.. and none have beaten him! Not sure about Del Potro, maybe once in U.S. Open? But all those match, it been pretty one sided in terms of the win/loss in favorite of Rafa! The tall players know this too!
Click to expand...
Delpo has beaten Rafa many times.
 
Jokervich said:
Kyrgios is through to the next round after Sinner withdrew. So whoever wins this faces Kyrgios next round. I hope Nadal wins now. A match between him and Kyrgios will be hilarious. Imagine if Kyrgios is the one to end his unbeaten streak.:-D
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I know. That's almost enough to make me cheer for Rafa today. Edit - I'm cheering for Rafa. I want the Kyrgios-Rafa show on
Double edit - it turns out, I can't. Intellectually, I want Rafa-Kyrgios. But I just can't root for him :-D
 
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Opelka so far is implementing the strategy we all knew he'd put in motion. I expect the inevitable tiebreak to go Nadal's way though.
 
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