2022 Race to Turin

[TripleATeam]

I figured that now would be the time to make this thread. There's almost certainly not going to be another time this year that 3 players are nearly tied for the #1 position. Here's how it currently stands (as of 5/16/2022):

#1 - Nadal - 3620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3490
#3 - Alcaraz - 3460
#4 - Auger-Aliassime - 2025
#5 - Street Zverev - 1980
#6 - Rublev - 1920
#7 - Medvedev - 1900
#8 - Fritz - 1765
#9 - Ruud - 1615
#10 - Djokovic - 1610

After Djokovic is a 300 point drop-off and 10 is a nice round number, hence I stopped there. At the moment, Nadal/Alcaraz/Tsitsipas are all vying for #1 in the race, and each are in the top 4 favorites for RG. The lone standout at the moment is Djokovic all the way in 10th place (who was previously 28th), trailing them by about 2000 points. The year-end #1 will probably come down to one of these 4, with an outside chance for Medvedev (if Wimbledon's points are stripped) and Zverev/Felix if they improve quite a bit.

The race will tighten up after Wimbledon, but since the top 3 are all within 200 points of each other, I wanted to make a thread about it.

 

[Beerus]

Djokovic getting the YE #1 would be so funny.

 

[TheNachoMan]

Ruud only has 5 more points than Novak but it still feels like an injustice.

 

[MichaelNadal]

C'mon Rafa

 

[mahatma]

YE #1 is between Alcaraz, Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Zverev. All 4 will play full season.

Not so sure about Rafa and Djokovic for obv reasons.

But I can see a very tight finish this time. ATP finals is where it gets decided, in the final match I feel!!

 

[TheAssassin]

Ruud only has 5 more points than Novak but it still feels like an injustice.

Fritz being 8th is the biggest eyesore, as happy as I am for the denadalization he did lol...

 

[aldeayeah]

Djokovic getting the YE #1 would be so funny.

if he wins wimby, rg, the two fall masters and wtf he should be good with 9000-ish points

 

[TripleATeam]

ATP have confirmed that there will be 0 ranking points counted for Wimbledon. This does not mean that 2021 will last for 24 months, but rather that Wimbledon will not be counted in the points total.

As such, between RG and Canada, there will be minimal opportunities to gather points. Grass will not be pivotal to this year's YE#1, and as such players that are more used to HC rather than grass (Medvedev) have a much better chance than previously thought.

 

[Terenigma]

I bet those 4 votes for Djokovic are regretting it right now. He would need to win basically every event he plays for the rest of the year to stand a chance at #1 and that's assuming every other player has R1 exits in the major tournaments.

 

[TripleATeam]

I bet those 4 votes for Djokovic are regretting it right now. He would need to win basically every event he plays for the rest of the year to stand a chance at #1 and that's assuming every other player has R1 exits in the major tournaments.

With an Djokovic d. Tsitsipas RG win, Djokovic is 4th (3610) with just 1000 points to leader Tsitsipas (4690).

It'd be a climb, but all it would take is Alcaraz being worse in the second half of the year and Tsitsipas playing a little less consistently, like he normally does on HC.

 

[James P]

It's an outside shot, but I'll vote my boy. In a weird position where I have low expectations for RG, yet he got a pretty sweet draw dropped in his lap. Add in the Wimby news, think he has a great shot.

 

[Newballsplease872]

It'll be between Alcaraz,Medvedev and Zverev.

 

[Hitman]

Djokovic already has the record for 7 year ending number ones, even if Nadal gets it this year, Djokovic still stands out alone, which was why it was so important that he got that 7th one last year to effectively seal the deal on this record. He really doesn't need it anymore, he stands alone and that record is going to be very difficult to break for anyone.

 

[tudwell]

This is such an open and exciting year. Genuinely no idea who will finish number one. Nadal obviously has his nose in front at the moment, but his fitness continues to be a question. I doubt he'll be able to play nearly as much as younger guys like Alcaraz and Medvedev, so he needs to maximize his points in the big tournaments. Needs to win at least one of Roland Garros and the US Open.

Medvedev would need to get back to winning ways on hard in the second half of the season. Definitely needs to defend his US Open title to have a real shot and probably some other big hard court tournaments.

If Alcaraz can keep up his current pace, he's definitely in the mix. I could even see him ending number one without winning a slam if the big ones are spread out enough and he cleans up in best-of-three. Who knows, though. He could easily come back down to earth a bit at some point this year.

Novak has a shot if he can play in the US. If he can't, then the only major where he has any possibility of earning points this year is Roland Garros, which means he'd pretty much have to be the dominant best-of-three player on tour to somehow end number one, and I don't think that's happening.

Feels like it's gotta be one of those four? I suppose Tsitsipas is up there too, especially if he takes advantage of the lopsided Roland Garros draw. He had such a disappointing second half of the season last year – will that be the norm or can he actually make deep runs consistently? Everyone seems to think his form is obviously lower than last year, but he's had basically all the same results so far. Would be funny if he maintains this good-but-not-great form enough to put himself in the conversation for year-end number one.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

I figured that now would be the time to make this thread. There's almost certainly not going to be another time this year that 3 players are nearly tied for the #1 position. Here's how it currently stands (as of 5/16/2022):

#1 - Nadal - 3620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3490
#3 - Alcaraz - 3460
#4 - Auger-Aliassime - 2025
#5 - Street Zverev - 1980
#6 - Rublev - 1920
#7 - Medvedev - 1900
#8 - Fritz - 1765
#9 - Ruud - 1615
#10 - Djokovic - 1610

After Djokovic is a 300 point drop-off and 10 is a nice round number, hence I stopped there. At the moment, Nadal/Alcaraz/Tsitsipas are all vying for #1 in the race, and each are in the top 4 favorites for RG. The lone standout at the moment is Djokovic all the way in 10th place (who was previously 28th), trailing them by about 2000 points. The year-end #1 will probably come down to one of these 4, with an outside chance for Medvedev (if Wimbledon's points are stripped) and Zverev/Felix if they improve quite a bit.

The race will tighten up after Wimbledon, but since the top 3 are all within 200 points of each other, I wanted to make a thread about it.

Nadalllllllll

 

[Deleted member 791948]

Djokovic already has the record for 7 year ending number ones, even if Nadal gets it this year, Djokovic still stands out alone, which was why it was so important that he got that 7th one last year to effectively seal the deal on this record. He really doesn't need it anymore, he stands alone and that record is going to be very difficult to break for anyone.

If Djokovic continues to trail Nadal in the slam race, no amount of other stats will save him, especially that year-end-#1 in 2020 when covid controlled the calendar

 

[Hitman]

If Djokovic continues to trail Nadal in the slam race, no amount of other stats will save him

Sadly, this is true.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

ATP have confirmed that there will be 0 ranking points counted for Wimbledon. This does not mean that 2021 will last for 24 months, but rather that Wimbledon will not be counted in the points total.

As such, between RG and Canada, there will be minimal opportunities to gather points. Grass will not be pivotal to this year's YE#1, and as such players that are more used to HC rather than grass (Medvedev) have a much better chance than previously thought.

And the guys that are consistent on clay and hardcourt will have an advantage. Medvedev clearly is not one of those. And this year Nadal isn't one of those either, but that can change at Roland Garros obviously

 

[Sport]

IMO, at this point Alcaraz is arguably the favorite to end Year End #1. Djokovic started slowly due to his vaccine stance and restrictions and Nadal is too injury-prone. Tsitsipas is an inferior tennis player than Carlitos and Medvedev with his injury lost too many points during the clay season. I can revisit my opinion after RG

 

[Deleted member 791948]

IMO, at this point Alcaraz is arguably the favorite to end Year End #1. Djokovic started slowly due to his vaccine stance and restrictions and Nadal is too injury-prone. Tsitsipas is an inferior tennis player than Carlitos and Medvedev with his injury lost too many points during the clay season. I can revisit my opinion after RG

It'd be funny if Nadal wins all 4 slams this year and Alcaraz gets #1

 

[TripleATeam]

So... the developments. Nadal has won RG, Zverev has gotten himself injured and looks unlikely for the remainder of the year. Where does that put us?

#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575
#7 - Auger-Aliassime -2320
#8 - Rublev - 2280
#9 - Fritz - 2060
#10 - Djokovic - 1970

The race is as above, but the dynamics have shifted. There's a few 500s, Canada/Cincinnati/Paris/Shanghai(?), the USO, and YEC. That gives us up to 6500 points left in the calendar (+Shanghai +500s). Seeing as a completely mediocre showing at the major events will give between 1000 and 1500 points, Nadal can be expected to get at least 6700-7200 points, potentially even more by year's end. Anyone more than (realistically speaking) 4500 points away from that goal is facing an impossible or near impossible task.

With that said, I'm unofficially saying Djokovic and Fritz have fallen out of contention for YE#1. I have absolutely no faith that FAA or Rublev could win the USO, and that's pretty much a prerequisite for YE#1 with the number of points they have, so I'm unofficially pulling them out of the race as well.

The remaining players are
#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575

Zverev is unlikely due to injury.
Ruud's best surface is clay, and that part of the season is over. He'd need to outdo Tsitsipas and Alcaraz on hard courts, not to mention scrounge up at minimum 3000 points on late HC, something he was barely able to do with 1200 points from RG. Extremely unlikely.
Medvedev: If you combined the best of his 2019 season and 2021 season, you get 6350 points over those tournaments. I do not expect him to get anywhere near that, but that's the absolute highest limit he has, just under 7000 points. Nadal would need just 1500 points to stay ahead, which he'd be likely to get unless there were some extenuating circumstances. Plus, that assumes Medvedev plays the Citi Open and St. Petersburg Open, both of which could be less likely now. He's not officially out, but unless he tears it up, he will be soon.

That just leaves Nadal, Tsitsipas, and Alcaraz. Nadal's shown the highest level over this year, especially exactly when he needed it (AO and RG). Tsitsipas' consistency got him this far, playing tons of tournaments and generally going deep but maybe not always winning. Alcaraz has shown very high levels recently, but we have yet to see if he can keep it up for an extended period. If he can, he might be a thorn in Nadal's side.

At this point, it's far and away Nadal's to lose.

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

So... the developments. Nadal has won RG, Zverev has gotten himself injured and looks unlikely for the remainder of the year. Where does that put us?

#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575
#7 - Auger-Aliassime -2320
#8 - Rublev - 2280
#9 - Fritz - 2060
#10 - Djokovic - 1970

The race is as above, but the dynamics have shifted. There's a few 500s, Canada/Cincinnati/Paris/Shanghai(?), the USO, and YEC. That gives us up to 6500 points left in the calendar (+Shanghai +500s). Seeing as a completely mediocre showing at the major events will give between 1000 and 1500 points, Nadal can be expected to get at least 6700-7200 points, potentially even more by year's end. Anyone more than (realistically speaking) 4500 points away from that goal is facing an impossible or near impossible task.

With that said, I'm unofficially saying Djokovic and Fritz have fallen out of contention for YE#1. I have absolutely no faith that FAA or Rublev could win the USO, and that's pretty much a prerequisite for YE#1 with the number of points they have, so I'm unofficially pulling them out of the race as well.

The remaining players are
#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575

Zverev is unlikely due to injury.
Ruud's best surface is clay, and that part of the season is over. He'd need to outdo Tsitsipas and Alcaraz on hard courts, not to mention scrounge up at minimum 3000 points on late HC, something he was barely able to do with 1200 points from RG. Extremely unlikely.
Medvedev: If you combined the best of his 2019 season and 2021 season, you get 6350 points over those tournaments. I do not expect him to get anywhere near that, but that's the absolute highest limit he has, just under 7000 points. Nadal would need just 1500 points to stay ahead, which he'd be likely to get unless there were some extenuating circumstances. Plus, that assumes Medvedev plays the Citi Open and St. Petersburg Open, both of which could be less likely now. He's not officially out, but unless he tears it up, he will be soon.

That just leaves Nadal, Tsitsipas, and Alcaraz. Nadal's shown the highest level over this year, especially exactly when he needed it (AO and RG). Tsitsipas' consistency got him this far, playing tons of tournaments and generally going deep but maybe not always winning. Alcaraz has shown very high levels recently, but we have yet to see if he can keep it up for an extended period. If he can, he might be a thorn in Nadal's side.

At this point, it's far and away Nadal's to lose.

Good Analysis. Though I don't think it is really Nadal's to lose yet. From what I understand he will only play Canada before the USO. I don't think Rafa will play at all this year after the USO as the baby will be due then as well. He may play the ATP Finals though.

Alcaraz and Tsitsipas OTOH will play a ton of tournaments. Alcaraz especially can rake up points very quickly in the HC season. Unless Rafa wins the USO, Alcaraz has a decent chance to end the Year as No 1.

 

[DIMI_D]

Good Analysis. Though I don't think it is really Nadal's to lose yet. From what I understand he will only play Canada before the USO. I don't think Rafa will play at all this year after the USO as the baby will be due then as well. He may play the ATP Finals though.

Alcaraz and Tsitsipas OTOH will play a ton of tournaments. Alcaraz especially can rake up points very quickly in the HC season. Unless Rafa wins the USO, Alcaraz has a decent chance to end the Year as No 1.

Nadal will play 4 more tournaments plus laver cup EXHO obviously no points.
Canada
Us open
Paris masters
tour finals

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

Nadal will play 4 more tournaments plus laver cup EXHO obviously no points.
Canada
Us open
Paris masters
tour finals

What makes you think he will play Paris masters?

He may play the tour finals though I don't really see him play Paris.

 

[DIMI_D]

What makes you think he will play Paris masters?

He may play the tour finals though I don't really see him play Paris.

It’s his MO play 1 lead up tournament before the ‘main event’. But maybe the baby will derail this but my gut feel was that it all does depend on the pregnancy though

 

[DIMI_D]

What makes you think he will play Paris masters?

He may play the tour finals though I don't really see him play Paris.

All depends mostly on the week the baby is due it won’t take months him waiting around that silly only really to be there for the birth and with her a day or 2 after the pregnancy.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

Djokovic getting the YE #1 would be so funny.

Or Ruud, but neither have any chance thankfully

 

[LawnTennisGod]

So... the developments. Nadal has won RG, Zverev has gotten himself injured and looks unlikely for the remainder of the year. Where does that put us?

#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575
#7 - Auger-Aliassime -2320
#8 - Rublev - 2280
#9 - Fritz - 2060
#10 - Djokovic - 1970

The race is as above, but the dynamics have shifted. There's a few 500s, Canada/Cincinnati/Paris/Shanghai(?), the USO, and YEC. That gives us up to 6500 points left in the calendar (+Shanghai +500s). Seeing as a completely mediocre showing at the major events will give between 1000 and 1500 points, Nadal can be expected to get at least 6700-7200 points, potentially even more by year's end. Anyone more than (realistically speaking) 4500 points away from that goal is facing an impossible or near impossible task.

With that said, I'm unofficially saying Djokovic and Fritz have fallen out of contention for YE#1. I have absolutely no faith that FAA or Rublev could win the USO, and that's pretty much a prerequisite for YE#1 with the number of points they have, so I'm unofficially pulling them out of the race as well.

The remaining players are
#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575

Zverev is unlikely due to injury.
Ruud's best surface is clay, and that part of the season is over. He'd need to outdo Tsitsipas and Alcaraz on hard courts, not to mention scrounge up at minimum 3000 points on late HC, something he was barely able to do with 1200 points from RG. Extremely unlikely.
Medvedev: If you combined the best of his 2019 season and 2021 season, you get 6350 points over those tournaments. I do not expect him to get anywhere near that, but that's the absolute highest limit he has, just under 7000 points. Nadal would need just 1500 points to stay ahead, which he'd be likely to get unless there were some extenuating circumstances. Plus, that assumes Medvedev plays the Citi Open and St. Petersburg Open, both of which could be less likely now. He's not officially out, but unless he tears it up, he will be soon.

That just leaves Nadal, Tsitsipas, and Alcaraz. Nadal's shown the highest level over this year, especially exactly when he needed it (AO and RG). Tsitsipas' consistency got him this far, playing tons of tournaments and generally going deep but maybe not always winning. Alcaraz has shown very high levels recently, but we have yet to see if he can keep it up for an extended period. If he can, he might be a thorn in Nadal's side.

At this point, it's far and away Nadal's to lose.

Clay months are February, April, May and July.

There are still 3 weeks of clay left in July right after wimbledon, including the Hamburg Open with 500 points. But yes your points stands that he would have to do well on HC

 

[Deleted member 792641]

Let’s call it like it is. It’s between Alcaraz and Nadal, and Nadal has a 90% chance of wrapping it up.

 

[DSH]

Djokovic getting the YE #1 would be so funny.

It will be more fun to see him in Turin but as a tourist eating an ice cream with his family.

 

[Beerus]

It will be more fun to see him in Turin but as a tourist eating an ice cream with his family.

Don't remind me of that possibility. YEC is an extremely important tournament.

 

[Goof]

Nadal has only committed to playing Canada and the USO. Wouldn't it be crazy if he won the CYGS but didn't finish as YE#1?

 

[Deleted member 792641]

Nadal has only committed to playing Canada and the USO. Wouldn't it be crazy if he won the CYGS but didn't finish as YE#1?

could only happen in a strong era. Take that weak era conspiracists!

 

[UnderratedSlam]

Nadal has only committed to playing Canada and the USO. Wouldn't it be crazy if he won the CYGS but didn't finish as YE#1?

Well, firstly he won't win it, very obviously nobody can.

Secondly, if he did win it, then his fans should be thrilled by that and not get stuck on the rankings...

 

[DSH]

Nadal has only committed to playing Canada and the USO. Wouldn't it be crazy if he won the CYGS but didn't finish as YE#1?

I think Nadal would sign that, but it would be a shame for the ATP if something like that happened.

 

[TripleATeam]

So... the developments. Nadal has won RG, Zverev has gotten himself injured and looks unlikely for the remainder of the year. Where does that put us?

#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575
#7 - Auger-Aliassime -2320
#8 - Rublev - 2280
#9 - Fritz - 2060
#10 - Djokovic - 1970

The race is as above, but the dynamics have shifted. There's a few 500s, Canada/Cincinnati/Paris/Shanghai(?), the USO, and YEC. That gives us up to 6500 points left in the calendar (+Shanghai +500s). Seeing as a completely mediocre showing at the major events will give between 1000 and 1500 points, Nadal can be expected to get at least 6700-7200 points, potentially even more by year's end. Anyone more than (realistically speaking) 4500 points away from that goal is facing an impossible or near impossible task.

With that said, I'm unofficially saying Djokovic and Fritz have fallen out of contention for YE#1. I have absolutely no faith that FAA or Rublev could win the USO, and that's pretty much a prerequisite for YE#1 with the number of points they have, so I'm unofficially pulling them out of the race as well.

The remaining players are
#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3920
#3 - Alcaraz - 3820
#4 - Ruud - 3065
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575

Zverev is unlikely due to injury.
Ruud's best surface is clay, and that part of the season is over. He'd need to outdo Tsitsipas and Alcaraz on hard courts, not to mention scrounge up at minimum 3000 points on late HC, something he was barely able to do with 1200 points from RG. Extremely unlikely.
Medvedev: If you combined the best of his 2019 season and 2021 season, you get 6350 points over those tournaments. I do not expect him to get anywhere near that, but that's the absolute highest limit he has, just under 7000 points. Nadal would need just 1500 points to stay ahead, which he'd be likely to get unless there were some extenuating circumstances. Plus, that assumes Medvedev plays the Citi Open and St. Petersburg Open, both of which could be less likely now. He's not officially out, but unless he tears it up, he will be soon.

That just leaves Nadal, Tsitsipas, and Alcaraz. Nadal's shown the highest level over this year, especially exactly when he needed it (AO and RG). Tsitsipas' consistency got him this far, playing tons of tournaments and generally going deep but maybe not always winning. Alcaraz has shown very high levels recently, but we have yet to see if he can keep it up for an extended period. If he can, he might be a thorn in Nadal's side.

At this point, it's far and away Nadal's to lose.

China has been confirmed to be removed from the calendar. 250s replace it plus one extra 500 at the same time as Tokyo, so little upward momentum at that time of the calendar.

#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3965
#3 - Alcaraz - 3865
#4 - Ruud - 3110
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575

We have the USO, the YEC, 3 remaining M1000s, and a few 500s, plus a lot of 250s. Up to 8000ish points.

Nadal seems healthy-ish, as long as he rests up his knee before USO. He probably skips some events, but he's still got a large lead.

Zverev seems unsure when he's coming back. Ruud is unlikely to put up significantly better results on late HC than early. The real competitors are Nadal, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, and Medvedev - and Medvedev really only if he can win the USO.

Nadal's upper limit the rest of the year is probably 600 pre-USO, 600 post-USO, 1000 at YEC, then his USO result. If he doesn't win the USO, I expect no more than 3000 points in the late season. Upper limit of 8.6k. If he wins USO, upper limit of 10k. Probably about 8000 to 8200 points?

Tsitsipas is inconsistent. He'd need over 4000 points to beat Nadal, which would entail either winning the USO or YEC plus making deep runs in the other events. Possible. Not extremely likely. Maybe ends with 6k points?

Alcaraz would need his pre-RG drive to remain intact. If it can, he'll threaten to take any of the M1000s, maybe multiple, and will make deep runs nearly everywhere. Still unsure if he'll win the USO even with that. I'd guess his upper limit is around 8k unless he wins the USO, in which case I'd probably call him the favorite to end the year as #1.

Medvedev would need a miracle run, but assuming he gets 3k points after USO, he enters contention. He's just out of contention if he loses at USO. Likely only gets 5.5k points by year end.

 

[TripleATeam]

China has been confirmed to be removed from the calendar. 250s replace it plus one extra 500 at the same time as Tokyo, so little upward momentum at that time of the calendar.

#1 - Nadal - 5620
#2 - Tsitsipas - 3965
#3 - Alcaraz - 3865
#4 - Ruud - 3110
#5 - Street Zverev - 2700
#6 - Medvedev - 2575

We have the USO, the YEC, 3 remaining M1000s, and a few 500s, plus a lot of 250s. Up to 8000ish points.

Nadal seems healthy-ish, as long as he rests up his knee before USO. He probably skips some events, but he's still got a large lead.

Zverev seems unsure when he's coming back. Ruud is unlikely to put up significantly better results on late HC than early. The real competitors are Nadal, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, and Medvedev - and Medvedev really only if he can win the USO.

Nadal's upper limit the rest of the year is probably 600 pre-USO, 600 post-USO, 1000 at YEC, then his USO result. If he doesn't win the USO, I expect no more than 3000 points in the late season. Upper limit of 8.6k. If he wins USO, upper limit of 10k. Probably about 8000 to 8200 points?

Tsitsipas is inconsistent. He'd need over 4000 points to beat Nadal, which would entail either winning the USO or YEC plus making deep runs in the other events. Possible. Not extremely likely. Maybe ends with 6k points?

Alcaraz would need his pre-RG drive to remain intact. If it can, he'll threaten to take any of the M1000s, maybe multiple, and will make deep runs nearly everywhere. Still unsure if he'll win the USO even with that. I'd guess his upper limit is around 8k unless he wins the USO, in which case I'd probably call him the favorite to end the year as #1.

Medvedev would need a miracle run, but assuming he gets 3k points after USO, he enters contention. He's just out of contention if he loses at USO. Likely only gets 5.5k points by year end.

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION:
ZVEREV
MEDVEDEV

I do not find it useful to talk about Zverev or Medvedev any longer. Even without the remaining points at the USO, Medvedev is over 2.4k points behind Nadal and Zverev is even further behind.

Sticking with our old low estimate for Nadal of 8600 points, Medvedev would need over 5000 points to reach Nadal, with just 500 points left in the calendar. Even if Nadal makes the SF of the USO and skips the rest of the season, he'd need to win the ATP Finals, Paris, and 500 extra points just to pull ahead. Safe to say Medvedev is out, and by extension, as is Zverev.

Similarly, Tsitsipas is a Hail Mary here. He'd need to severely overperform in the remainder of the season to even sniff the YE#1 as he remains at least 4k points shy of it, and that's significantly better than his sum of best during any year of his career during this stretch. Even if you assumed Tsitsipas wins the YEC and Paris, he still needs to win a 500 or 2 250s to get ahead of my conservative Nadal estimate for his season-ending point total.

Down to our 2 true candidates: Nadal and Alcaraz.

Alcaraz is 1200 points (ish) behind Nadal. If we ignore the USO for a moment, what we're left with is 2 weeks of 250s, Tokyo/Kazakhstan, 2 weeks of 250s, Vienna/Basel, Paris, then Turin. I don't think Nadal will play anything other than Paris and YEC. Let's assume that Alcaraz picks up a 500 and a 250 final plsu some miscellaneous results (or 700 points, however you want them distributed). I think that's about middle of the road for 4 weeks of 250s and 2 500s.

That just leaves us with Paris and Turin, with Alcaraz about 500 points behind Nadal. For the moment, I'll head back to the USO.

• If both players lose in the QFs or R16s, then nothing significant changes. Proceed as if there is no USO.
• If either wins the USO, they probably tie up YE#1 then and there. Alcaraz would either lead Nadal heading into indoor season or Nadal would lead Alcaraz by over 2500 points after USO.
• If both make the SFs, then the winner of that pulls ahead by almost 500 points.
  • If Nadal beats Alcaraz and loses the final, he gets another 500 point buffer going into Paris and Turin (so 1000 total). This would give Nadal a heavy advantage for YE#1.
  • If Alcaraz beats Nadal and loses the final, he reduces Nadal's lead to 0 going into Paris and Turin, probably giving Alcaraz a slight advantage for YE#1.
• The remaining scenario (one loses in the SF, one loses in the R16 or QF) gives the one who lost in the SF a few hundred points of differential. Not huge, but could be the game changer in the end.

My estimate for Paris/Turin totals is as follows:

Nadal: SF (his career average result) + 2 RR victories, SF loss (reasonable) = 760 points​

Alcaraz: F (average his HC masters this year) + 2 RR victories, SF win, F loss (benefit of doubt) = 1400 points.​

Probably about 70% Nadal becomes YE#1, 30% Alcaraz. A lot hinges on the USO. If Alcaraz can beat Nadal in the SF (should they meet) then he becomes 65% favorite in my book, but if Nadal wins that SF then he locks up YE#1 with 95% likelihood.

 

[henrytennisadelaide]

If NK won us open he would be catapulted to no. 5 in the race wouldn't he?

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION:
ZVEREV
MEDVEDEV

I do not find it useful to talk about Zverev or Medvedev any longer. Even without the remaining points at the USO, Medvedev is over 2.4k points behind Nadal and Zverev is even further behind.

Sticking with our old low estimate for Nadal of 8600 points, Medvedev would need over 5000 points to reach Nadal, with just 500 points left in the calendar. Even if Nadal makes the SF of the USO and skips the rest of the season, he'd need to win the ATP Finals, Paris, and 500 extra points just to pull ahead. Safe to say Medvedev is out, and by extension, as is Zverev.

Similarly, Tsitsipas is a Hail Mary here. He'd need to severely overperform in the remainder of the season to even sniff the YE#1 as he remains at least 4k points shy of it, and that's significantly better than his sum of best during any year of his career during this stretch. Even if you assumed Tsitsipas wins the YEC and Paris, he still needs to win a 500 or 2 250s to get ahead of my conservative Nadal estimate for his season-ending point total.

Down to our 2 true candidates: Nadal and Alcaraz.

Alcaraz is 1200 points (ish) behind Nadal. If we ignore the USO for a moment, what we're left with is 2 weeks of 250s, Tokyo/Kazakhstan, 2 weeks of 250s, Vienna/Basel, Paris, then Turin. I don't think Nadal will play anything other than Paris and YEC. Let's assume that Alcaraz picks up a 500 and a 250 final plsu some miscellaneous results (or 700 points, however you want them distributed). I think that's about middle of the road for 4 weeks of 250s and 2 500s.

That just leaves us with Paris and Turin, with Alcaraz about 500 points behind Nadal. For the moment, I'll head back to the USO.

• If both players lose in the QFs or R16s, then nothing significant changes. Proceed as if there is no USO.
• If either wins the USO, they probably tie up YE#1 then and there. Alcaraz would either lead Nadal heading into indoor season or Nadal would lead Alcaraz by over 2500 points after USO.
• If both make the SFs, then the winner of that pulls ahead by almost 500 points.
  • If Nadal beats Alcaraz and loses the final, he gets another 500 point buffer going into Paris and Turin (so 1000 total). This would give Nadal a heavy advantage for YE#1.
  • If Alcaraz beats Nadal and loses the final, he reduces Nadal's lead to 0 going into Paris and Turin, probably giving Alcaraz a slight advantage for YE#1.
• The remaining scenario (one loses in the SF, one loses in the R16 or QF) gives the one who lost in the SF a few hundred points of differential. Not huge, but could be the game changer in the end.

My estimate for Paris/Turin totals is as follows:

Nadal: SF (his career average result) + 2 RR victories, SF loss (reasonable) = 760 points​

Alcaraz: F (average his HC masters this year) + 2 RR victories, SF win, F loss (benefit of doubt) = 1400 points.​

Probably about 70% Nadal becomes YE#1, 30% Alcaraz. A lot hinges on the USO. If Alcaraz can beat Nadal in the SF (should they meet) then he becomes 65% favorite in my book, but if Nadal wins that SF then he locks up YE#1 with 95% likelihood.

I highly doubt Rafa will play much post USO.

If Rafa doesn't win the USO, Alcaraz will have 90% chance of YE 1 IMO.

 

[TripleATeam]

If NK won us open he would be catapulted to no. 5 in the race wouldn't he?

He would be in pretty much the same position as Medvedev.

 

[henrytennisadelaide]

He would be in pretty much the same position as Medvedev.

The 2000 USO points, plus the lead-ins (incl. DC win) would surely mean he ascends into the top 4/5?

 

[MadariKatu]

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION:
ZVEREV
MEDVEDEV

I do not find it useful to talk about Zverev or Medvedev any longer. Even without the remaining points at the USO, Medvedev is over 2.4k points behind Nadal and Zverev is even further behind.

Sticking with our old low estimate for Nadal of 8600 points, Medvedev would need over 5000 points to reach Nadal, with just 500 points left in the calendar. Even if Nadal makes the SF of the USO and skips the rest of the season, he'd need to win the ATP Finals, Paris, and 500 extra points just to pull ahead. Safe to say Medvedev is out, and by extension, as is Zverev.

Similarly, Tsitsipas is a Hail Mary here. He'd need to severely overperform in the remainder of the season to even sniff the YE#1 as he remains at least 4k points shy of it, and that's significantly better than his sum of best during any year of his career during this stretch. Even if you assumed Tsitsipas wins the YEC and Paris, he still needs to win a 500 or 2 250s to get ahead of my conservative Nadal estimate for his season-ending point total.

Down to our 2 true candidates: Nadal and Alcaraz.

Alcaraz is 1200 points (ish) behind Nadal. If we ignore the USO for a moment, what we're left with is 2 weeks of 250s, Tokyo/Kazakhstan, 2 weeks of 250s, Vienna/Basel, Paris, then Turin. I don't think Nadal will play anything other than Paris and YEC. Let's assume that Alcaraz picks up a 500 and a 250 final plsu some miscellaneous results (or 700 points, however you want them distributed). I think that's about middle of the road for 4 weeks of 250s and 2 500s.

That just leaves us with Paris and Turin, with Alcaraz about 500 points behind Nadal. For the moment, I'll head back to the USO.

• If both players lose in the QFs or R16s, then nothing significant changes. Proceed as if there is no USO.
• If either wins the USO, they probably tie up YE#1 then and there. Alcaraz would either lead Nadal heading into indoor season or Nadal would lead Alcaraz by over 2500 points after USO.
• If both make the SFs, then the winner of that pulls ahead by almost 500 points.
  • If Nadal beats Alcaraz and loses the final, he gets another 500 point buffer going into Paris and Turin (so 1000 total). This would give Nadal a heavy advantage for YE#1.
  • If Alcaraz beats Nadal and loses the final, he reduces Nadal's lead to 0 going into Paris and Turin, probably giving Alcaraz a slight advantage for YE#1.
• The remaining scenario (one loses in the SF, one loses in the R16 or QF) gives the one who lost in the SF a few hundred points of differential. Not huge, but could be the game changer in the end.

My estimate for Paris/Turin totals is as follows:

Nadal: SF (his career average result) + 2 RR victories, SF loss (reasonable) = 760 points​

Alcaraz: F (average his HC masters this year) + 2 RR victories, SF win, F loss (benefit of doubt) = 1400 points.​

Probably about 70% Nadal becomes YE#1, 30% Alcaraz. A lot hinges on the USO. If Alcaraz can beat Nadal in the SF (should they meet) then he becomes 65% favorite in my book, but if Nadal wins that SF then he locks up YE#1 with 95% likelihood.

What about Ruud? Isn't he also in the mix?

 

[Bud]

What about Ruud? Isn't he also in the mix?

It was impolite to discount Ruud's chances

 

[TripleATeam]

The 2000 USO points, plus the lead-ins (incl. DC win) would surely mean he ascends into the top 4/5?

Including everything, if Kyrgios wins the US Open he has 3420 points. Medvedev currently has 3375. Kyrgios would become 5th in the Race, but even if he wins Paris and Turin with no losses, that's a total of 5920 by year end. That's barely more than Nadal has right now. If Nadal wins against Tiafoe, he'd still be ahead even if Kyrgios wins all the remaining big tournaments.

Not to mention that Nadal is likely to make the SF here for another 500 points and also likely to win at least 1 match at Turin and get another 200 points or so from Paris or Turin, so Kyrgios would realistically need to have at least 6620 points to even sniff YE#1 - not to mention that Alcaraz would still be in the running even if Nadal doesn't play the rest of the season. It would take winning multiple 500s or 250s along with Paris and Turin. It's not realistic.

Kyrgios is not in the running.

 

[TripleATeam]

What about Ruud? Isn't he also in the mix?

It was impolite to discount Ruud's chances

How Ruud of me...

I discount Casper's chances because he's never shown he could pull off the sort of run he needs to make to end the year as #1. Mathematically speaking, anyone with 1310 points or more has a mathematical chance at YE#1 assuming they play every week and don't lose a single match. I don't consider that realistic.

The only reason I had even considered Medvedev was he's shown the ability to win almost every tournament in the back half of the year before (2019-2021), so expecting multiple Big Titles wouldn't be impossible. However, Ruud has never won a single M1000 on hard court. The closest he's come is the Miami final. It doesn't inspire confidence in me because it practically requires him to win the USO and even then it isn't guaranteed considering his HC results over his career.

But yes, Ruud does have a chance at YE#1. If he wins the USO, he'll be about equal in points with Rafa. Then he just needs to perform better post-USO. But if he loses the USO, his chances are very slight. If you assume he makes the USO final, then equals his best ever Paris and Turin results, wins a 500 and a 250, then he'll end with 6215 points. I expect Nadal will have more points than that by the end of the USO.

 

[TripleATeam]

USO results that lead to interesting changes here:

1. Alcaraz wins USO = Alcaraz is in dominant position to win YE#1. Ruud is unlikely to make up a 2000 point deficit, Nadal unlikely to make up a 650 point deficit.
2. Alcaraz loses in the USO final to Ruud = Nadal/Alcaraz/Ruud all within 150 points. Pretty much comes down to who can rack up the most post-USO points. My money would be Alcaraz, but it'd be pretty open.
3. Tiafoe wins USO = Ruud still technically in the running for YE#1, but would still be behind Alcaraz by 300 points and behind Nadal by almost 1000. Would be near 50/50 between Alcaraz and Nadal - Alcaraz likely to play many tournaments to become #1, so Nadal would need to hold him at bay.
4. Ruud beats Tiafoe for USO title = Probably the most open scenario. Ruud would be practically on par with Nadal for points. If he played many tournaments he could probably outdo Nadal's likely point haul from Paris and Turin. Alcaraz is likely to perform better than Ruud, but 500 points better? That's less likely.

If Alcaraz wants a great shot at #1, he at least needs to win over Tiafoe today.

 

[Voyager]

USO results that lead to interesting changes here:

1. Alcaraz wins USO = Alcaraz is in dominant position to win YE#1. Ruud is unlikely to make up a 2000 point deficit, Nadal unlikely to make up a 650 point deficit.
2. Alcaraz loses in the USO final to Ruud = Nadal/Alcaraz/Ruud all within 150 points. Pretty much comes down to who can rack up the most post-USO points. My money would be Alcaraz, but it'd be pretty open.
3. Tiafoe wins USO = Ruud still technically in the running for YE#1, but would still be behind Alcaraz by 300 points and behind Nadal by almost 1000. Would be near 50/50 between Alcaraz and Nadal - Alcaraz likely to play many tournaments to become #1, so Nadal would need to hold him at bay.
4. Ruud beats Tiafoe for USO title = Probably the most open scenario. Ruud would be practically on par with Nadal for points. If he played many tournaments he could probably outdo Nadal's likely point haul from Paris and Turin. Alcaraz is likely to perform better than Ruud, but 500 points better? That's less likely.

If Alcaraz wants a great shot at #1, he at least needs to win over Tiafoe today.

i'm ruuding for ruud

 

[TripleATeam]

USO results that lead to interesting changes here:

1. Alcaraz wins USO = Alcaraz is in dominant position to win YE#1. Ruud is unlikely to make up a 2000 point deficit, Nadal unlikely to make up a 650 point deficit.
2. Alcaraz loses in the USO final to Ruud = Nadal/Alcaraz/Ruud all within 150 points. Pretty much comes down to who can rack up the most post-USO points. My money would be Alcaraz, but it'd be pretty open.
3. Tiafoe wins USO = Ruud still technically in the running for YE#1, but would still be behind Alcaraz by 300 points and behind Nadal by almost 1000. Would be near 50/50 between Alcaraz and Nadal - Alcaraz likely to play many tournaments to become #1, so Nadal would need to hold him at bay.
4. Ruud beats Tiafoe for USO title = Probably the most open scenario. Ruud would be practically on par with Nadal for points. If he played many tournaments he could probably outdo Nadal's likely point haul from Paris and Turin. Alcaraz is likely to perform better than Ruud, but 500 points better? That's less likely.

If Alcaraz wants a great shot at #1, he at least needs to win over Tiafoe today.

We've got 2 250s, a 500, 2 250s, Paris, and Turin on the calendar remaining. That's up to 4000 points up for grabs for anyone in the top 7 (plus Djokovic). Mathematically eliminated: anyone with 2460 points or less, meaning Hurkacz is the lowest-ranked YE#1 contender.

Furthermore, we can reasonably expect Alcaraz to win at least 800 points by year's end, so reasonably speaking anyone under 3260 points no longer has YE#1 on their racquet. That leaves only Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Nadal, and Alcaraz. Medvedev's barely over that line, so if he loses a single match it's over.

Of the 4 remaining players, Tsitsipas and Ruud are over 1500 points behind Alcaraz. Even if Alcaraz wins a reasonable 800 points, they'd need over 2300 of 4000 total available points. It'd be a Turin win and a Paris win away. Not impossible, but very tough. The likelihood of them reaching #1 (combined) is less than 5%, in my view.

The two true contenders reveal themselves: Alcaraz and Nadal. Alcaraz is 650 points ahead of Nadal going into the end of the season. Nadal is unlikely to play any more than just Paris and Turin. Alcaraz may also limit himself, but even if he does, it's a hard road for Nadal to get ahead of Alcaraz. And Alcaraz could even play a 250 or 500 to extend the lead somewhat and make Nadal winning Turin (remember, he's never won a YEC) a necessity for him.

Reasonably speaking, Alcaraz has over 60% chance of being #1, Nadal has at most 30%, and Ruud/Tsitsipas are less than 5%.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

I would love for Carlos to be seeded #1 in the ATP finals. My memory is that numbers 1 and 2 lead the two round robin groups so the final rankings do matter (I think it's 1, 3, 5, and 7 in one group and 2, 4, 6 and 8 in the other?)

As for YE#1 I would love it if Carlos were to do it. I think he will play 4 or 5 more ATP tour events and the ATP finals to finish this year. I strongly suspect that Carlos will be #1 for the year and I love it!

 

[El_Yotamo]

(I think it's 1, 3, 5, and 7 in one group and 2, 4, 6 and 8 in the other?)

Pretty sure it's drawn. 1 and 2 get placed in opposite groups, then 3 is drawn into one of them and 4 placed in the other, rinse and repeat with 5/6 7/8.