V
Vamos Rafa Nadal
Guest
I can't remember - but I like my way better since the placement is random and totally dependent on how many points you have by the time the ATP finals happen!
2022 Race to Turin
- Thread starter TripleATeam
- Start date
El_Yotamo
Hall of Fame
The method I suggested is much more random and fair IMO...but whatever makes you happyI can't remember - but I like my way better since the placement is random and totally dependent on how many points you have by the time the ATP finals happen!
tennis_error
Professional
This is right
V
Vamos Rafa Nadal
Guest
I read somewhere if the top 8 reach a certain threshold of points (3800?) then Djokovic would not be invited to participate? I have no idea if it is true and that is why I am asking...
Here are the top 15 as of September 12, 2022:
1. Alcaraz
2. Nadal
3. Ruud
4. Tsitsipas
5. Medvedev
6. Rublev
7. Auger-Aliassime
8. Zverev
9. Hurkacz
10. Fritz
11. Norrie
12. Carreno Busta
13. Berrettini
14. Sinner
15. Djokovic
beast of mallorca
G.O.A.T.
Thanks for the breakdown Sir. So basically, Alcaraz has this in the bag. With the looming birth of Baby Rafa, Nadal will have too many distractions to even bother to go at it
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Not true. Top 7 automatically qualify, then the 8th spot goes to any grand slam winner ranked between 8 and 20. If multiple exist, only the higher ranked one is invited. If none exist, the 8th ranked player automatically qualifies.
Djokovic is likely to remain in the top 20. If so, he's in Turin. If not, it will go to whoever #8 is.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Continuing this thread:
What remains in the calendar is 2 250s, 1 500, Paris, and Turin. Those who will be partaking in next week's 250 are already signed up, so the new elimination point for YE#1 is 3250 points less than Alcaraz - so mathematically only people with 3210 points or more have a chance at #1. That's Alcaraz, Nadal, Ruud, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, and Rublev.
Realistically, like I've outlined before, we're down to Alcaraz and Nadal. Alcaraz has confirmed Basel, Paris, Turin. Nadal hasn't confirmed any as far as I know, but I anticipate at least Turin. I do not expect Nadal to play any 250s or 500s.
With that said, Nadal is 650 points behind Alcaraz. If Nadal plays only Turin, he would need to reach at least the final to have a chance of getting ahead of Alcaraz, and Alcaraz could secure YE#1 with 855 points at Basel, Paris, and Turin combined. Very reasonable. Ultimately, it depends a lot on if Nadal plays Paris and how well Alcaraz does before Turin.
If Nadal only plays Turin: Alcaraz as good as has the YE#1 already. It would take an incredibly bad collapse to lose that. Not entirely on Nadal's racquet.
If Nadal plays both Paris and Turin: Also not entirely on Nadal's racquet. He couldn't guarantee a YE#1 finish with a Paris win and Turin win - 2500 points. Alcaraz can win 2100 (so could still lead Nadal by 250 points) but a poor result in Basel for Alcaraz suddenly means the YE#1 title is in Nadal's hands. Even so, I still anticipate Alcaraz is in pole position, but it's more up in the air.
What remains in the calendar is 2 250s, 1 500, Paris, and Turin. Those who will be partaking in next week's 250 are already signed up, so the new elimination point for YE#1 is 3250 points less than Alcaraz - so mathematically only people with 3210 points or more have a chance at #1. That's Alcaraz, Nadal, Ruud, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, and Rublev.
Realistically, like I've outlined before, we're down to Alcaraz and Nadal. Alcaraz has confirmed Basel, Paris, Turin. Nadal hasn't confirmed any as far as I know, but I anticipate at least Turin. I do not expect Nadal to play any 250s or 500s.
With that said, Nadal is 650 points behind Alcaraz. If Nadal plays only Turin, he would need to reach at least the final to have a chance of getting ahead of Alcaraz, and Alcaraz could secure YE#1 with 855 points at Basel, Paris, and Turin combined. Very reasonable. Ultimately, it depends a lot on if Nadal plays Paris and how well Alcaraz does before Turin.
If Nadal only plays Turin: Alcaraz as good as has the YE#1 already. It would take an incredibly bad collapse to lose that. Not entirely on Nadal's racquet.
If Nadal plays both Paris and Turin: Also not entirely on Nadal's racquet. He couldn't guarantee a YE#1 finish with a Paris win and Turin win - 2500 points. Alcaraz can win 2100 (so could still lead Nadal by 250 points) but a poor result in Basel for Alcaraz suddenly means the YE#1 title is in Nadal's hands. Even so, I still anticipate Alcaraz is in pole position, but it's more up in the air.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Down to 3, mathematically.
If Tsitsipas can win a perfect ATP Finals, it's him. By 30 points.
If Nadal can make the final with no losses or win the ATP finals, it's him.
In all other scenarios, it's Alcaraz.
Since Nadal and Tsitsipas are now the 1 and 2 seeds, they will be placed in separate groups. Meaning we could see both YE#1 bids taken into the semifinal. I don't know that we've ever seen a #3 still in the running by the semifinals of the YEC.
Ultimately, it's an extremely difficult road for Tsitsipas and Nadal, but there is a chance one of them draws Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime, and Djokovic while the other draws Ruud, Rublev, and Fritz. A 3-0 would seem much easier in that world.
If Tsitsipas can win a perfect ATP Finals, it's him. By 30 points.
If Nadal can make the final with no losses or win the ATP finals, it's him.
In all other scenarios, it's Alcaraz.
Since Nadal and Tsitsipas are now the 1 and 2 seeds, they will be placed in separate groups. Meaning we could see both YE#1 bids taken into the semifinal. I don't know that we've ever seen a #3 still in the running by the semifinals of the YEC.
Ultimately, it's an extremely difficult road for Tsitsipas and Nadal, but there is a chance one of them draws Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime, and Djokovic while the other draws Ruud, Rublev, and Fritz. A 3-0 would seem much easier in that world.
James P
G.O.A.T.
Crazy how unbalanced these two groups could end up being
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
If Djokovic wins Bercy and the ATP Finals, how high will his ranking be?
The_Order
G.O.A.T.
I'm too lazy to Google and math, can someone do it for me?
Hitman
Bionic Poster
There was potential for this back in 2003, when Roddick, Federer and Ferrero were all in contention I believe.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
5220. A full 1600 points behind Alcaraz.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
As of this afternoon, Rafa was unable to go perfect at the RR of the YEC. Alcaraz is still not playing, obviously. We now have 3 situations in play:
1. Tsitsipas wins a 1500 point ATP Finals. He becomes the YE#1.
2. Otherwise, if Nadal wins the ATP Finals he becomes the YE#1.
3. Otherwise, Alcaraz is YE#1.
Tsitsipas cannot afford to lose a single time. Nadal can theoretically lose another time and make it to the semifinals, then win the semifinal and final to win the first-ever 1100-point ATP Finals, but realistically speaking Nadal's chances also end at his next loss. We're either two losses or 4-5 wins away from crowning the next YE#1.
Hitman
Bionic Poster
Interesting development now, basically neither one can afford to lose a single match from here on out, otherwise Alcaraz will become the youngest ever world number one in history.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
And as of this morning, Nadal's chance of winning the YEC is officially 0.0000000001
There would still a chance at a 1-2 3 way tie, assuming Fritz goes 3-0, but it would require Fritz beating Ruud in straights, then Fritz beating Felix in straights while Nadal beats Ruud in straights. Only then do all 3 of the others end with 2-4 set records, and Nadal would then need to win on game%.
Chances are extremely slim. At the moment, Alcaraz is as good as already YE#1. Congrats to him!
There would still a chance at a 1-2 3 way tie, assuming Fritz goes 3-0, but it would require Fritz beating Ruud in straights, then Fritz beating Felix in straights while Nadal beats Ruud in straights. Only then do all 3 of the others end with 2-4 set records, and Nadal would then need to win on game%.
Chances are extremely slim. At the moment, Alcaraz is as good as already YE#1. Congrats to him!
Djokodalerer31
Hall of Fame
YE#1 and didn't even had to play to confirm it! LOL The whole situation is pure comedy gold!
Hmm. Ignoring warm-up events, if he wins the ATP Finals undefeated and then the Australian Open, it looks like he’ll have exactly 6,820 points – the same as Tiny Carl now. Of course, Alcaraz only made the third round of Australia himself last year and didn’t play any warm-up events, so there’s plenty of room for him to pick up points and move the goal posts further out. My guess is Novak will be a bit shy of number one even if he wins both events, but he’d put himself in great position to nab it a little later in the season as Alcaraz sets about defending multiple Masters titles, etc.
jm1980
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes, but he pretty much would have to win the Tour Finals and the AO, and hope Alcaraz does poorly in Australia
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
All things happen when you are worthy. He became number 1 right after australian open. Won Adelaide in between as well.
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