2022. US Open QF: [9] Andrey Rublev (RUS) vs [22] Frances Tiafoe (USA)

[James P]

Both players are seeking their first major semifinal, Rublev a big 0-5 in quarterfinal matches, Tiafoe 0-1. The two have played each other twice, both on hardcourt and have an even 1-1 H2H record. They met last year here at the US Open in the third round, where Frances prevailed in 5. Who wins and breaks new ground at the semifinal stage?

 

[sometennisdot]

Rublev cannot win a Grand Slam. If that happens, it should count less than an amateur era GS.

I can't see Tiafoe's name on a GS SF, so I am certain Rublev does this in 3 or 4

 

[Aabye5]

Rublev cannot win a Grand Slam. If that happens, it should count less than an amateur era GS.

I can't see Tiafoe's name on a GS SF, so I am certain Rublev does this in 3 or 4

Rublev > Ruud

 

[BGod]

Fact one of these will be in a Slam Semi......

I know Tiafoe already did, my point stands.

Void Era.

Tiafoe in 5.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

Rublev straight sets. You may be able to get away with 15 mph 2nd serves against Nadal who wants to return them from outside the stadium but Rublev will make him pay

 

[DSH]

Balrog in 4 sets.

 

[stringertom]

So many times it seems a big win like Tiafoe’s upset of The Nadal gets followed by a somewhat flatter bobble. I think Rublev will exploit that occurrence and edge Frances, in four.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Maybe the crowd will rattle Rublev and 95% of them will be screaming their heads off for Frances.

Rublev is the better player, he should win in 4 but the crowd dynamics will likely mess with his head. A coin toss.

 

[dking68]

Maybe the crowd will rattle Rublev and 95% of them will be screaming their heads off for Frances.

Rublev is the better player, he should win in 4 but the crowd dynamics will likely mess with his head. A coin toss.

My exact sentiments. Rublev can’t drown out a home crowd. BigFOE in 4-5 sets

 

[SonicNirvana]

I got Big Foe in this one. US Open please show him some love.

 

[Musterrific]

Tough to call. Rublev is a boring but steady basher, while Tiafoe is more creative and talented but inconsistent (until recent months at least). I think the partisan crowd could give Tiafoe the edge here in a tight match. He feeds off that energy, and he'll get plenty of it.

 

[Gumby]

I got Rublev in this one, he played against a partisan crowd vs Shapovalov. Toughed it out, Tiafoe should have a let down after such a big win. The Rafa curse will make an appearance.

 

[Agassi-Fan]

I am pulling for Ruby on this one. He is a very hard worker off the court, and I hope this is his time for a break through.

 

[jindra]

Im afraid this is a letdown/look ahead scenario for Tiafoe. But Rublev never went to a SF, getting past that hurdle will be big for him.

 

[80s New Wave]

Feel like tiafoe might have a letdown here, and rublev is a steadier player. Rublev in 4.

 

[Jack the Hack]

The IBM computer says that Rublev is favored to win by a small margin, 52% to 48%. This is a tough call because both will be trying to break into territory that they've never done before.

I liked what I saw from Big Foe against Nadal. Rublev will be more challenging. However, I'm going with Frances in 5 sets due to the home crowd support in a repeat of their last match at the US Open, which Tiafoe won in 5.

 

[bluetrain4]

I said yesterday that it's probably the best potential QF matchup for Tiafoe in that (1) he's beaten him before at the USO - in 5 sets (though that significantly raises the pressure of expectation), and (2) Rublev is such a straight-ahead match up. He's not hard to figure out, not "tricky"- he hits hard and relatively low trajectory and keeps doing so. It's a great opportunity for both of them to make a Slam semi and I think it will be about execution, obviously - can their winners/ue ratios fall in the range that will enable a win, can Frances get free points on serve like against Nadal, and can they avoid having any long "off" stretches in the match. But it's also about just staying focused and, like against their Rnd 16 opponents, managing emotions and being able to ride the wave of Grand Slam tennis - where you play great at times, you dip at times and miss some opportunities, etc.

 

[Rina]

I don't know; I voted Rublev in 3. I don't know anything about Rublev, except that once he beat Djokovic. And might have a lot to prove, being Russian right now, being raised in tougher circumstances than Tiafeo. I know, I know, the sob story of immigrant rags to tennis pro of Tiafoe is hyped up; he will have the crowd going nuts for him, so that could help him win. But, in the end, Tiafoe was pampered by the USTA and his tennis academy and given a ton, mostly he was given the idea that he is great. You don't need to fight to prove you are great when you think you are great.

 

[BeatlesFan]

And might have a lot to prove, being Russian right now, being raised in tougher circumstances than Tiafeo. I know, I know, the sob story of immigrant rags to tennis pro of Tiafoe is hyped up.

Are you sure Rublev had it tougher than Tiafoe growing up? Read this and get back with us.

https://andscape.com/features/im-lo...tiafoe-the-story-behind-tennis-unlikely-hero/

 

[ACE of Hearts]

Tiafoe in 4.

 

[Rina]

Are you sure Rublev had it tougher than Tiafoe growing up? Read this and get back with us.

https://andscape.com/features/im-lo...tiafoe-the-story-behind-tennis-unlikely-hero/

Yes, I am sure. I know exactly how he had it. And not from the "American dream" fabrication. Sure till 10, he did not have it great, onward he did.

 

[bluetrain4]

I don't know; I voted Rublev in 3. I don't know anything about Rublev, except that once he beat Djokovic. And might have a lot to prove, being Russian right now, being raised in tougher circumstances than Tiafeo. I know, I know, the sob story of immigrant rags to tennis pro of Tiafoe is hyped up; he will have the crowd going nuts for him, so that could help him win. But, in the end, Tiafoe was pampered by the USTA and his tennis academy and given a ton, mostly he was given the idea that he is great. You don't need to fight to prove you are great when you think you are great.

His story is almost always presented not as a "sob" story but a serendipity story. The story includes reference to some struggles (mainly his dad having to work a lot and his mom working overnight, which caused them to stay at the tennis center), but Tiafoe and his family are never presented as if they were miserable, completely destitute, or living some completely unimaginable hard, tragic life. They are presented as quite happy for the opportunity to rebuild their lives in the US after fleeing Sierra Leon and the serendipitous opportunities that his dad working at the tennis center provided.

 

[BGod]

Maybe the crowd will rattle Rublev and 95% of them will be screaming their heads off for Frances.

Rublev is the better player, he should win in 4 but the crowd dynamics will likely mess with his head. A coin toss.

I got Rublev in this one, he played against a partisan crowd vs Shapovalov. Toughed it out, Tiafoe should have a let down after such a big win. The Rafa curse will make an appearance.

Tiafoe is not only the lone American but a much more accessible match (Final tickets typically mean quieter crowd) and already well known. On top of this Rublev inspires nobody. The Montreal crowd against Evans was a great example seeing live.

Expecting 95% enthusiasm for Frances.

 

[Rina]

His story is almost always presented not as a "sob" story but a serendipity story. The story includes reference to some struggles (mainly his dad having to work a lot and his mom working overnight, which caused them to stay at the tennis center), but Tiafoe and his family are never presented as if they were miserable, completely destitute, or living some completely unimaginable hard, tragic life. They are presented as quite happy for the opportunity to rebuild their lives in the US after fleeing Sierra Leon and the serendipitous opportunities that his dad working at the tennis center provided.

Yeah, I almost choked reading your post. I meant somehow USTA and wealthy benefactors managed to make a kid with his circumstances feel entitled and grandiose, paying everything the whole time. When it came to tennis and even his family in many ways. In no way did he have serendipity story with his family, at all. His dad did not work a lot, in fact his dad tried his best not to work and put a lot on the tender shoulders of a young fella.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

I haven't been predicting all that great this week but I am predicting Rublev in 4. I truly think Tiafoe's win over Rafa had to do with Rafa and not with Tiafoe. I think Rublev is the better player. The home crowd might help lift Tiafoe but I don't think it will bother Andrey. Obvs I would want Rublev to lose to Charly in the semis of course!

 

[fundrazer]

One thing I think we've discussed on here a fair bit before is how much emotional energy Tiafoe uses in some of his wins. Obviously the win against Rafa is probably biggest win of his career, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back against Rublev.

Kind of expecting a letdown from Tiafoe but we will see how it goes. Probably done betting this US Open, but if I were to think about this match, 4 or 5 sets seems likely.

 

[Rattie]

Maybe the crowd will rattle Rublev and 95% of them will be screaming their heads off for Frances.

Rublev is the better player, he should win in 4 but the crowd dynamics will likely mess with his head. A coin toss.

Maybe. Rublev had no problem handling Djokovic in Belgrade with the whole crowd against him.

 

[SonicNirvana]

don't let me down big foe

 

[SonicNirvana]

Tiafoe in 4.

you think he won't let beating Rafa get to his head?

 

[Bhagi Katbamna]

On paper Tiafoe should win. He's got a bigger serve, even forehand, probably better movement. Also Rublev's second serve is attackable.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

On paper Tiafoe should win. He's got a bigger serve, even forehand, probably better movement. Also Rublev's second serve is attackable.

Disagree. Rublev is the overall better player, which is why he has been in the top 10 (he's just outside of it at the moment) and Tiafoe is seeded 22 and much lower ranked. But we will see what happens today.

 

[MiamiWeekendWarrior]

Poll is closed but I'm picking Tiafoe in 4. Or Rublev in 3.

 

[fundrazer]

Thankfully Sabalenka finished off that match without too much trouble and this one will start relatively soon.

 

[NeutralFan]

Russian peasant In 4

 

[stringertom]

On paper Tiafoe should win. He's got a bigger serve, even forehand, probably better movement. Also Rublev's second serve is attackable.

Like Tiafoe has a massive second serve? You obviously don’t watch Frances play very often. All of us watching the Nadal match were amazed Nadal stayed back to receive second serves.

 

[ACE of Hearts]

you think he won't let beating Rafa get to his head?

I changed my prediction. Rublev in 4

 

[jindra]

Rublev in 3.

 

[ACE of Hearts]

Rublev needs to throw more first serves in.

 

[ACE of Hearts]

Tiafoe still not serving a high percentage yet opponents still having trouble on the ground against him.

 

[mike danny]

Sorry, Andrey, you're a good guy. But I'm rooting for Frances.

 

[junior74]

Ah, so nice with a few minutes of court level camera

 

[mike danny]

Like Tiafoe has a massive second serve? You obviously don’t watch Frances play very often. All of us watching the Nadal match were amazed Nadal stayed back to receive second serves.

For a long time I was wondering why no one was exploiting Nadal's deep return position.

In the Tiafoe match I was wondering why was Nadal still continuing with that deep position against powderpuff second serves.

 

[mike danny]

I'm sure Rublev is relieved he doesn't have to face Nadal.

 

[EdMcMush]

does mary carrilo have to recite the Tiafoe story every single match. she is the worst

 

[mike danny]

does mary carrilo have to recite the Tiafoe story every single match. she is the worst

Can't blame the Americans for being suckers for an underdog story.

 

[EdMcMush]

Can't blame the Americans for being suckers for an underdog story.

the best underdog story has already been made. its when Rocky beat Drago

 

[mike danny]

the best underdog story has already been made. its when Rocky beat Drago

I know. In a movie made by Americans. They still love that type of story. And Tiafoe's profile perfectly fits.

 

[Tennis Fan States63]

the best underdog story has already been made. its when Rocky beat Drago

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

does mary carrilo have to recite the Tiafoe story every single match. she is the worst

Each match can be someone's first

 

[Tennis Fan States63]

Woah - Tiafoe going right at him at net.....looks like a good battle today.