Good post. How do we know, Novak's AO deportation for 3 years? The govt that banned him is not even in power. And it might be easier for Novak to get exemption in AO than in the UsOpen.
One fact: Tennis and AO is way bigger in Australia, than it is in the US. Meaning there are many sports in the US, and they care more about their football/baseball and basketball. Very few people give a flying fig about Tennis and Novak's entry is UNLIKELY to become a national issue as it did in the AO.
Obviously, everything in the US works on money. And there are travel lobbies, tourism sector, Airlines etc who are working with the govt to relax vaccination rules as it hurts business. So it's unlikely to remain like this for a long time. Meaning - the vaccination entry requirements will be removed.
I see - Novak being able to play UsOpen/AO or BOTH. If what you are saying actually pans out and Novak only plays 2 slams in a year for the next 3 years - then yeah he is not the favorite for the slam race.
But if Novak plays these HC tournaments, he comes back as the favorite. And let's not forget about Nadal. Can the Spaniard win another slam? He will be 37 in RG next year - that is OLD even for the Clay GOAT.