The US isn't dropping the vaxx rules and Novak just before the tournament conceded he won't be at the US Open and his deportation from Australia means he isn't allowed entry for 3 years so that's all question mark. You're basing this on the assumption Novak wins Wimbledon and also has a shot at USO and AO. Nadal has been written off constantly and yet he's the reigning champ of the last 2 slams while Novak hasn't won one in a year and is down a set to a nobody right now. Even if he does win this, he's out of the next slam guaranteed, possibly out of the Aus Open and then let's not act like he'd be the favourite at RG considering Nadal's track record and how that match went at this years tournament.
Good post. How do we know, Novak's AO deportation for 3 years? The govt that banned him is not even in power. And it might be easier for Novak to get exemption in AO than in the UsOpen.
One fact: Tennis and AO is way bigger in Australia, than it is in the US. Meaning there are many sports in the US, and they care more about their football/baseball and basketball. Very few people give a flying fig about Tennis and Novak's entry is UNLIKELY to become a national issue as it did in the AO.
Obviously, everything in the US works on money. And there are travel lobbies, tourism sector, Airlines etc who are working with the govt to relax vaccination rules as it hurts business. So it's unlikely to remain like this for a long time. Meaning - the vaccination entry requirements will be removed.
I see - Novak being able to play UsOpen/AO or BOTH. If what you are saying actually pans out and Novak only plays 2 slams in a year for the next 3 years - then yeah he is not the favorite for the slam race.
But if Novak plays these HC tournaments, he comes back as the favorite. And let's not forget about Nadal. Can the Spaniard win another slam? He will be 37 in RG next year - that is OLD even for the Clay GOAT.
Obviously if Nadal wins another slam - the race is OVER.