2023 Australian Open R128: [1] Rafael Nadal vs Jack Draper

[Deleted member 629564]

H2H
Nadal 0-0 Draper

Vegas odds
(as of 13 January)

Sources:
atptour.com
oddsportal.com

 

[Kralingen]

Not buying the fear on this one. Draper gets a set and pushes hard for a 2nd but I think, as usual, TTW is underestimating the crap out of Rafael Nadal Panera.

 

[weakera]

Nadal should have this. His ball is special and it's usually tough for first timers to feel comfortable their first time out against him.

 

[Deleted member 758560]

Not buying the fear on this one. Draper gets a set and pushes hard for a 2nd but I think, as usual, TTW is underestimating the crap out of Rafael Nadal Panera.

fanera panera or parera

 

[KTIP]

Nadal should play on monday right? Everytime when djokovis was defending champion he start on monday

 

[Deleted member 629564]

At this moment in live ranking Draper is #38, just 4 places below Botic van de Zandschulp the lowest seed at the AO.
Draper winning Adelaide 2 will become #35 in the world.


It's quite ironic, but #1 seeded Nadal gets the toughest opponent in the 1st round out of all Top16 players.
He's the only one facing Top40 opponent when the rest of Top16 players get players from outside Top50.

#1 Nadal: Draper #38
#2 Ruud: Machac #110
#3 Tsitsipas: Halys #60
#4 Djokovic: RCB #75
#5 Rublev: Thiem #98
#6 FAA: Pospisil #99
#7 Medvedev: Giron #54
#8 Fritz: Basilashvili #90
#9 Rune: Krajinovic #52
#10 Hurkacz: Martinez #59
#11 Norrie: Van Assche #143
#12 Zverev: Varillas #103
#13 Berrettini: Murray #65
#14 PCB: Cachin #57
#15 Sinner: Edmund #581
#16 Tiafoe: Altmaier #92

 

[Larry Duff]

Nadal will take the 3rd set but go down in 4.

 

[weakera]

Interesting wrinkle that Draper is left handed. I think the perception is lefties are more immune to Nadal's topspin, but Nadal has lost to a left hander just once since 2017 (24-1)

 

[Deleted member 758560]

Interesting wrinkle that Draper is left handed. I think the perception is lefties are more immune to Nadal's topspin, but Nadal has lost to a left hander just once since 2017 (24-1)

fiasco verdasco 1st round ao 16, 5 sets

 

[weakera]

fiasco verdasco 1st round ao 16, 5 sets

Shapovalov also took him 5 at AO last year, although Nadal was dominating him until he collapsed physically.

 

[Deleted member 791948]

Interesting wrinkle that Draper is left handed. I think the perception is lefties are more immune to Nadal's topspin, but Nadal has lost to a left hander just once since 2017 (24-1)

Yeah the tennis media doesn't like to talk about this, it hurts their narrative that Federer only lost to Nadal because of left-hand.
Nadal is a one-of-a-kind left-hander (or right-hander playing with his left-hand), and nobody is immune.

 

[Chanwan]

Not an easy first round, but Rafa in 4, maybe 5

 

[SeeingDusk]

Draper can very well upset

 

[Deleted member 629564]

Draper vs Khachanov
ATP Adelaide 2 QF

3:27-6:34

Audio warning: Robbie Koenig at the microphone

 

[stringertom]

Will wait for the two most important opinions about The Nadal’s chances: @sureshs and @StrongRule . They will probably agree on his chances; I will then take the opposite fate.

 

[stringertom]

At this moment in live ranking Draper is #38, just 4 places below Botic van de Zandschulp the lowest seed at the AO.
Draper winning Adelaide 2 will become #35 in the world.


It's quite ironic, but #1 seeded Nadal gets the toughest opponent in the 1st round out of all Top16 players.
He's the only one facing Top40 opponent when the rest of Top16 players get players from outside Top50.

#1 Nadal: Draper #38
#2 Ruud: Machac #110
#3 Tsitsipas: Halys #60
#4 Djokovic: RCB #75
#5 Rublev: Thiem #98
#6 FAA: Pospisil #99
#7 Medvedev: Giron #54
#8 Fritz: Basilashvili #90
#9 Rune: Krajinovic #52
#10 Hurkacz: Martinez #59
#11 Norrie: Van Assche #143
#12 Zverev: Varillas #103
#13 Berrettini: Murray #65
#14 PCB: Cachin #57
#15 Sinner: Edmund #581
#16 Tiafoe: Altmaier #92

Joe Kovic will attest that Halys is playing well above his ranking. If the Frenchman learned the art of the tiebreak, he might be undefeated right now (0-4 in two losses).

 

[malbaker86]

Rafa in 3

 

[stringertom]

Draper vs Khachanov
ATP Adelaide 2 QF

3:27-6:34

Audio warning: Robbie Koenig at the microphone

“Sumptuous!” It might be the first time I’ve heard that adjective used to describe play from a player.

Draper looks fit, moving well and hitting inside the court. He’s going to be a tough out. He beats United Cup/Paris/Torino Nadal but I doubt he plays UC/Bercy/WTF Nadal.

 

[pj80]

Shapovalov also took him 5 at AO last year, although Nadal was dominating him until he collapsed physically.

Until the long MTO you mean?

 

[pj80]

Draper vs Khachanov
ATP Adelaide 2 QF

3:27-6:34

Audio warning: Robbie Koenig at the microphone

Draper beat Kwon in 2 and lost to Khachanov in 2 sets in Adelaide 1 a week ago...in Adelaide 2 he beat Khachanov and is due to olay Kwon now

 

[Kralingen]

Watching Draper now if anyone who’s super scared of him wants to scout him.

Yeah he’s not beating Rafa. No. Return is pretty poor and while he has good movement and shot tolerance for his size there’s basically no way he will have the upper hand in a baseline rally. His serve is really good to be fair, but this isn’t going to be an upset.

Rafa in 4.

 

[The_Order]

Watching Draper now if anyone who’s super scared of him wants to scout him.

Yeah he’s not beating Rafa. No. Return is pretty poor and while he has good movement and shot tolerance for his size there’s basically no way he will have the upper hand in a baseline rally. His serve is really good to be fair, but this isn’t going to be an upset.

Rafa in 4.

I think the biggest thing that will be working against Draper is the cc fh to Nadal's fh...

 

[Nadal_King]

It’s a day match so maybe that helps Rafa

 

[Lauren_Girl']

It’s a day match so maybe that helps Rafa

Dont know if it helps Nadal but it surely won't help Draper, who hates day conditions.
In USO he beat Auger-Aliassime in straight sets in a night session. But totally imploded against Khachanov in the day match.
His fitness is still an issue and he just lost a gruelling day match against Kwon.

I can't see him winning more than 1 set.

 

[Nadal_King]

Dont know if it helps Nadal but it surely won't help Draper, who hates day conditions.
In USO he beat Auger-Aliassime in straight sets in a night session. But totally imploded against Khachanov in the day match.
His fitness is still an issue and he just lost a gruelling day match against Kwon.

I can't see him winning more than 1 set.

Well Rafa got the worst opponent of all top 16 seeds so atleast being the defending champ , he deserves a say in what time he prefers

 

[tennis_error]

Not buying the fear on this one. Draper gets a set and pushes hard for a 2nd but I think, as usual, TTW is underestimating the crap out of Rafael Nadal Panera.

Nadal betting odd is 1.45, which sounds great, no? I don't bet anymore but this should be great opportunity for you, don't you think so?

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Too much unnecessary hype here. Nadal in 3 here. Maybe in 4 if he starts out of sorts though.

 

[tennis_error]

Yeah the tennis media doesn't like to talk about this, it hurts their narrative that Federer only lost to Nadal because of left-hand.
Nadal is a one-of-a-kind left-hander (or right-hander playing with his left-hand), and nobody is immune.

Or the reason is more simple. No high quality left hender compared to right henders?

 

[sometennisdot]

We know that if Draper hits his best level he can win it, but no guarantee he does that. And if he doesn't Nadal won't have to do much

 

[Nostradamus]

H2H
Nadal 0-0 Draper

Vegas odds
(as of 13 January)

Sources:
atptour.com
oddsportal.com

Never fear, i have analyzed this match, took 2 hours but RAFA is going to win it. It has to do with matchup issues that Draper has with this. I can explain this to you but it will take 3 pages of TW forum. Only Geniuses like me understand so just know that RAFA will win this one

 

[Mike Sams]

It's strange that a 21 year old has little to no chance against a guy nearing 37 in a sport like tennis.
And people don't know whether it's because the old gen are that good or because the young gen are that bad. That's been the argument for some years now.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Think i've got Nadal as the underdog for this one. Draper is dangerous and Nadal has not looked good of late.

 

[Deleted member 629564]

 

[marc45]

Nadal said in his press conference that the court is the same but the ball is softer and loses pressure quickly

 

[Deleted member 791948]

Think i've got Nadal as the underdog for this one. Draper is dangerous and Nadal has not looked good of late.

If Nadal didn't play well vs. Norrie and De Minaur, he would have lost in straight sets.
Instead, those matches went the full distance, and Nadal was experimenting with serve-volley anyway, not something he'd do at the AO much.
Nadal is willing to die for this AO, not for the united cup.

 

[Nadal_King]

Ideally Rafa’s projected 3rd Rd should have been 1st Rd and vice versa, it gets easier with each rd until 3rd rd hopefully Rafa is on the ball and gets this done in max 4 sets

 

[TennisFan3]

Think i've got Nadal as the underdog for this one. Draper is dangerous and Nadal has not looked good of late.

You honestly believe that Nadal would lose in R1 of a slam?

 

[ChaelAZ]

I am taking a standard line for Nadal where he drops one set somewhere, rolls well in 2, then there is one tight set. Pretty typical call when he doesn't look to have a lot of warm up matches. I actually think this match could be on Jack's racquet if he can handle the moment and play free. But excited to see the start of the season in any case.

 

[DSH]

fanera panera or parera

Rafael Nadal Parera.

 

[djokovic the conqueror]

Draper in 4. He will overpower Nadal with his big serve and strong lefty forehand. Nadal’s moonballs will go straight into the strike zone of Drapers forehand.

 

[Deleted member 758560]

Rafael Nadal Parera.

parera is his father surname right?

 

[DSH]

It's strange that a 21 year old has little to no chance against a guy nearing 37 in a sport like tennis.
And people don't know whether it's because the old gen are that good or because the young gen are that bad. That's been the argument for some years now.

So strange that a 21-year-old tennis player was being beaten by a player of more than 36 years in the semifinals of the Australian Open and in which the younster had to retire due to injury.

 

[DSH]

Parera is his father's surname, right?

No, it belongs to his mother Ana María Parera.

 

[Mike Sams]

So strange that a 21-year-old tennis player was being beaten by a player of more than 36 years in the semifinals of the Australian Open and in which the younster had to retire due to injury.

It certainly is strange.

 

[SonicNirvana]

You honestly believe that Nadal would lose in R1 of a slam?

We have no idea his form and Draper isn’t some 150 player

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

We have no idea his form and Draper isn’t some 150 player

Nadal won’t lose to draper. He drops a set at most. This is a best 5 grand slam and different ball game.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Nadal in 4 relatively comfortable sets! I feel he could start slow and drop first set then gets early break in 2nd set and rolls to victory after that.

 

[Topspin_80]

Interesting wrinkle that Draper is left handed. I think the perception is lefties are more immune to Nadal's topspin, but Nadal has lost to a left hander just once since 2017 (24-1)

In 2017 lost to Shapovalov, again in 2022, and he just lost to Norrie.

Draper, big serve and nothing to lose.

I don't like the way Nadal plays lefties, I hope he prevails though.

 

[weakera]

In 2017 lost to Shapovalov, again in 2022, and he just lost to Norrie.

Draper, big serve and nothing to lose.

I don't like the way Nadal plays lefties, I hope he prevails though.

Nadal has the best winning percentage of all-time against lefties.

 

[fundrazer]

Hopefully this ends up being a good one. Was impressed with Jack at times last year, but I still think he needs to play more aggressively. Has a fairly big forehand when he goes for it, but he's really reluctant to do so in a lot of the matches I've seen. For whatever reason he prefers to just grind from baseline which I think limits him a bit. Match last year with PCB turned into a ridiculous grindfest.

Ultimately think it comes down how Nadal is playing. If he's able to play aggressively enough without making errors then I'm not sure what Draper will be able to do in rallies. If Nadal's groundies are lacking though, then this could turn into a physical match.