2023 Canadian Open Quarter Finals - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia [1] (SPN) v/s Thomas John Robert Paul [12] (USA)

win prediction poll


  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Its the 3rd clash between these two; additionally, its the second consecutive year that they'd be playing each other in Canada. Last year, in Montreal, it was a 3 set win for Paul in R32, albeit Alcaraz did have match points to wrap it up in straight sets.

Earlier this year, Alcaraz got the better of him in Miami. Coming into this match, the young Spaniard has survived a big scare in R16 against Hurkacz, otoh Paul coasted through easily against Giron.

What's the way this match would be unfolding? Vote and discuss.
 
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ppma

Professional
Wouldn't be surprised if Carlos drops another set. I haven't seen him comfortable on court yet, neither in the two matches, nor the practices.
 
Alcaraz in 3 if he's still finding his feet in Toronto, in straights if he is starting to feel more comfortable.

It's time for Carlos to find his groove, with Sinner and Medvedev likely to come in SF and F. Maybe this is the match where he will?
 

Soul_Evisceration

Hall of Fame
Although he's playing better than last year, Alcaraz still hasn't looked completely dialed in (his 3rd set performance vs Hurkacz was shocking despite the win).

Even though he lost to Tommy Paul last year, he had a Matchpoint.

I'm sure he'll find a way to win.

However, I'm not sure that his level will be good enough to beat Sinner and Medvedev if they are the opponents waiting in the Semi Final and Final.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Great return game from Alcaraz gets one of the breaks back. Still a long way to go if he wants to take this first set, though.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz just hasn’t found his timing all tournament. No rhythm to his game right now, no reliable patterns he seems to trust.
 
Alcaraz just hasn’t found his timing all tournament. No rhythm to his game right now, no reliable patterns he seems to trust.
He's prepping. Probably loading up physically too, as he would in an offseason - to be in max form at the USO. That's inevitable when you have back-to-back "M1000"s right before a slam - which is simply absurd in today's day and age, especially near the tail end of a long and taxing season. And that's why you'll keep seeing the Bustas and Demons go deep in these events...

That said, he could still conceivably unforced-error his way to a title here...
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Jesus, if Alcaraz loses this set we are looking at one of the following winning the Canadian Masters:
Tommy Paul
Monfils
Sinner
Davidovich Fokina
De Minaur
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Did you see that stat? has won 78% of his matches after losing the first set this year.

2nd and 3rd on that list are 50%-ish. Djokovic is 2nd.

Crazy stat.
The stat sounds cool but it’s “only” 7 times he’s done it this year. And he put himself in a situation losing the first set to players he shouldn’t. Of that 78% where he’s come back from dropping the first, it was against the following:
Fognini in Rio
Jarry in Rio
Ruusuvuori in Madrid
Rinderknech in Queens
Berrettini at Wimbledon
Djokovic at Wimbledon
Hurkacz in Canada

The last 3 are worthy of the stat but dropping the first set to guys outside the top 80 like Fognini or guys outside the top 100 like Jarry isn’t great.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
I'm thinking the same thing. He will beat this version of Carlos tomorrow if they meet. And then be the heavy favorite in the final.
He really should. I could see Sinner start to feel the pressure if Carlos loses, though. At that point he’d be the very clear favorite for the title, a position I don’t think he’s ever been in at an event of this magnitude.

I’m not necessarily predicting that will happen but it wouldn’t surprise me. We’ll see what happens.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Lmao. Tweener passing shot winner. Even playing his D game, Carlos puts on a show.

Seems a little calmed down at the moment, compared to a few minutes ago.
 
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