2023 Nationals Week 2 Simulations Posted - 40+ 3.5

schmke

schmke

Legend
And I just posted my simulations for the 40+ 3.5 men and women.

Basically the same Texas team that just won 18+ 3.5 is back so same issue as before, but this time Southern more or less is matching Texas numbers wise. But no where close on the "shenanigans score".

Texas - 1.29
Caribbean - 0.75
Hawaii - 0.64
MoValley - 0.62
Mid-Atlantic - 0.61
...
Southern - 0.44

So it will be interesting to see how things play out. Can Southern really dominate like Texas is likely to?

Southern does have one A player who appears to be way into 4.0 range that is inflating their team average, it is a little odd he hasn't gotten three strikes yet. And there is another A not as high but same profile. 3.0S then 3.5C then 4.0C but close enough to appeal. One other A but most everyone else a C with now 4.0 (or higher) history, so their shenanigans score not that high.
 
schmke said:
And I just posted my simulations for the 40+ 3.5 men and women.

Basically the same Texas team that just won 18+ 3.5 is back so same issue as before, but this time Southern more or less is matching Texas numbers wise. But no where close on the "shenanigans score".

Texas - 1.29
Caribbean - 0.75
Hawaii - 0.64
MoValley - 0.62
Mid-Atlantic - 0.61
...
Southern - 0.44

So it will be interesting to see how things play out. Can Southern really dominate like Texas is likely to?

Southern does have one A player who appears to be way into 4.0 range that is inflating their team average, it is a little odd he hasn't gotten three strikes yet. And there is another A not as high but same profile. 3.0S then 3.5C then 4.0C but close enough to appeal. One other A but most everyone else a C with now 4.0 (or higher) history, so their shenanigans score not that high.
Click to expand...
Is it possible to see a running tally of the # of strikes someone has?
 
schmke said:
And I just posted my simulations for the 40+ 3.5 men and women.

Basically the same Texas team that just won 18+ 3.5 is back so same issue as before, but this time Southern more or less is matching Texas numbers wise. But no where close on the "shenanigans score".

Texas - 1.29
Caribbean - 0.75
Hawaii - 0.64
MoValley - 0.62
Mid-Atlantic - 0.61
...
Southern - 0.44

So it will be interesting to see how things play out. Can Southern really dominate like Texas is likely to?

Southern does have one A player who appears to be way into 4.0 range that is inflating their team average, it is a little odd he hasn't gotten three strikes yet. And there is another A not as high but same profile. 3.0S then 3.5C then 4.0C but close enough to appeal. One other A but most everyone else a C with now 4.0 (or higher) history, so their shenanigans score not that high.
Click to expand...

How do I get to your blog? I am interested in what is about to take place.
 
Most of the 8am matches recorded. Middle West, Texas, and New England all won 3-1, no 4-0 wins. Three 2-2 wins so far, two decided by the sets tie-breaker, one decided by the games tie-breaker (2 game difference).
 
schmke said:
Most of the 8am matches recorded. Middle West, Texas, and New England all won 3-1, no 4-0 wins. Three 2-2 wins so far, two decided by the sets tie-breaker, one decided by the games tie-breaker (2 game difference).
Click to expand...
Maybe an annoying question, but out of curiosity, if it is easy to tell , did anyone shift lineups, play strongest doubles at line 3 etc?
 
After day one, six 3.5M teams are 2-0 with the current top-4 being Middle West, New England, Texas, and Eastern. With the remaining schedules, a 7% chance there are five at 4-0. But there is a 64% chance a 3-1 teams makes the semis.

There are five 3.5W teams that are 2-0 with the current top-4 being Intermountain, Southern, SoCal, and Texas. No chance of four undefeated and very well could be just two.
 
Wow, has New England ever even won, like, a court before at Nationals? I thought we always were terrible. That said I think our 3.5s are underrated, no bias of course. :) In my neck of the woods there have been almost no 3.5 bump ups in years, and the league has been getting obviously stronger. There are at least a few of us that work to improve …
 
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time_fly said:
Wow, has New England ever even won, like, a court before at Nationals? I thought we always were terrible. That said I think our 3.5s are underrated, no bias of course. :) In my neck of the woods there have been almost no 3.5 bump ups in years, and the league has been getting obviously stronger. There are at least a few of us that work to improve …
Click to expand...
If a section does poorly long enough at Nationals, they should avoid a lot of bump ups which over time does make them relatively stronger vs other sections. Perhaps this is NE's year!

I had them right on the edge of contending and after day one are a borderline favorite to advance. Can they do it two days in a row?
 
schmke said:
I had them right on the edge of contending and after day one are a borderline favorite to advance. Can they do it two days in a row?
Click to expand...
I’m not sure how many guys were able to make the trip. IIRC they played the same lineup twice yesterday. It will be even tougher if they don’t have any fresh players.
 
39% now

Middle West - 4-0 / 12-4
Texas - 3-0 / 10-2, plays 1-2 Caribbean
Southern - 3-0 / 10-2, plays 0-3 PNW
New England - 3-0 / 9-3, plays 0-3 NorCal
Middle States - 3-0 / 8-4, plays 0-3 Hawaii

4-0 most likely for all, but will all happen?
 
schmke said:
39% now

Middle West - 4-0 / 12-4
Texas - 3-0 / 10-2, plays 1-2 Caribbean
Southern - 3-0 / 10-2, plays 0-3 PNW
New England - 3-0 / 9-3, plays 0-3 NorCal
Middle States - 3-0 / 8-4, plays 0-3 Hawaii

4-0 most likely for all, but will all happen?
Click to expand...

Will be sad if my boys miss out in fifth place at 4-0.
 
Three matches done:

Texas - 4-0 / 14-2
Middle West - 4-0 / 12-4
Middle States - 4-0 / 11-5
Southern - 3-0 / 10-2
New England - 3-0 / 9-3
 
And now four!

Texas - 4-0 / 14-2
New England - 4-0 / 14-2
Middle West - 4-0 / 12-4
Middle States - 4-0 / 11-5
Southern - 3-0 / 10-2

If Southern wins, even 2-2, they are in and Middle States gets left out.
 
schmke said:
The PNW "win" was 2-2, tied on sets, went to games where PNW won 3 more games, so they win the match.
Click to expand...
PNW pulled very small upsets (a few hundredths difference in ratings) in both of their court wins.

Singles the Southern player was playing only his second match and had had a nice 6-3,6-3 win yesterday, but lost today, and not so close. Had it been closer, Southern perhaps wins.

Doubles, went to a super, and Southern had one player playing their second match (lost in a super yesterday) and the other his third having played earlier today where he'd won in a super.

Southern did have to play at 11:30 and then 3:00 so didn't have a big break, perhaps fatigue was a factor, can't say.
 
NumbersGuy said:
Womens’ 40+ 3.5 semi decided by two games. Five lines can’t come soon enough.
Click to expand...
Just one game I think. And IM won a second set 6-0 to contribute to that. If that set is 6-1 instead, they are tied on games and the Texas team would have advanced due to winning 1D.
 
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