2023 Nationals Week 5 Simulations

[schmke]

Posts going up on my blog now. Just did 4.0 men and women.

The 4.0 men appears fairly top heavy with 7 teams having a real shot at the 4 semi-finalist spots. And this is really 3 favorites in IM, SoCal, Texas, and 4 others vying for the last spot (MiddleWest, Middle States, NorCal, Southern). All seven of those teams have most likely records of 3-1 or better. And this is 40+, so those 2-2 ties being so close may come into play.

The 4.0 women also have a strong set of favorites with 3 teams MiddleWest, Middle States, and Southern most likely to be 4-0, with Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and PNW all 3-1. Caribbean is perhaps a wildcard. Really wide range of schedule strengths here, 3.82 up to 3.97 which definitely plays a role.

 

[Klitz]

I wonder if Southerns "shenanigans" will lead them to victory again?

 

[schmke]

Southern is actually pretty low on the list for 40+ 4.0M. Score is just 0.42 and just two players a 4.5 in the past and three self-rates. Texas and Middle States both have three self-rates, but have 10 and 16 above 4.0 in the past players. Of course, this is 40+ and guys that were 4.5 in the past are more likely to be legitimate 4.0s now than for 18+. But some large rosters in play too, we'll see who shows up and plays.

 

[J_R_B]

Southern is actually pretty low on the list for 40+ 4.0M. Score is just 0.42 and just two players a 4.5 in the past and three self-rates. Texas and Middle States both have three self-rates, but have 10 and 16 above 4.0 in the past players. Of course, this is 40+ and guys that were 4.5 in the past are more likely to be legitimate 4.0s now than for 18+. But some large rosters in play too, we'll see who shows up and plays.

My team torched the MS team in the regular season (one 10-8 match tb from a shut out...). They take me seriously, so it wasn't a softball lineup or anything, either. I would be shocked if they are contenders in the end. They have a ton of ex-4.5s for two reasons - (1) their captain is diligent about contacting anyone who he sees bumped down and (2) since they've been to nationals 5 times, a lot of their guys have spent time in 4.5 purgatory and then got bumped back down. Their ex-4.5s who are not self-rates are generally very good 4.0s but not ringer level studs.

 

[schmke]

I wonder if Southerns "shenanigans" will lead them to victory again?

Note, I did take a closer look at the 18+ 4.0 men from Southern who won last week and despite the high score, I didn't really see any evidence of shenanigans from that team. The self-rates didn't manage scores from what I can tell, and there was no obvious tanking to get bumped dpwn. There was one self-rate appeal down but that was about it.

As I've noted before, the score I calculate does not necessarily mean there were any shenanigans, just that there may have been and it may deserve some deeper research. In this case, it looks pretty benign.

 

[Vox Rationis]

Note, I did take a closer look at the 18+ 4.0 men from Southern who won last week and despite the high score, I didn't really see any evidence of shenanigans from that team. The self-rates didn't manage scores from what I can tell, and there was no obvious tanking to get bumped dpwn. There was one self-rate appeal down but that was about it.

As I've noted before, the score I calculate does not necessarily mean there were any shenanigans, just that there may have been and it may deserve some deeper research. In this case, it looks pretty benign.

I think all of 4.0 this year looked pretty tame. I predicted going in that things would be pretty even this year. Seemed like there were plenty of solid 4.5 level guys as expected. Probably a few high end 4.5 level guys. But no blatant hidden 5.0s like teams past. So no one was unexpectedly getting blown out by someone they should be competitive with on paper. And a lot of the best players were computer rated. I think the team with the most dangerous self-rates (midw3st) didn’t even get to bring their 3 most important ones to nationals.

 

[Klitz]

I think all of 4.0 this year looked pretty tame. I predicted going in that things would be pretty even this year. Seemed like there were plenty of solid 4.5 level guys as expected. Probably a few high end 4.5 level guys. But no blatant hidden 5.0s like teams past. So no one was unexpectedly getting blown out by someone they should be competitive with on paper. And a lot of the best players were computer rated. I think the team with the most dangerous self-rates (midw3st) didn’t even get to bring their 3 most important ones to nationals.

Southern #1 singles was egregious.

 

[Vox Rationis]

Southern #1 singles was egregious.

Computer rated though. So you’d have to go into his results from last year to decide if it’s bad or not. I definitely had him pegged as one of the highest potential singles players going into nationals. Recent Junior player who only played 4 matches in 2022 to get his computer rating. Definitely suspicious on the surface. But going 3-1 that year with the loss being in a flight playoff match to a strong 4.0 is less suspicious. His results this year from districts and sectionals was good but not world beating. And his UTR progression from 2021-2023 is pretty typical. Went from losing to 6s to only losing to 7s to only losing to 8s (of which there were a few at nationals he didn’t get to play). I didn’t get the vibes that he was intentionally hidden or tanking games. But definitely agree guys like him can sometimes be an abuse of the system. Maybe similar to Fowkes guys but with a more honest start?

 

[J_R_B]

Computer rated though. So you’d have to go into his results from last year to decide if it’s bad or not. I definitely had him pegged as one of the highest potential singles players going into nationals. Recent Junior player who only played 4 matches in 2022 to get his computer rating. Definitely suspicious on the surface. But going 3-1 that year with the loss being in a flight playoff match to a strong 4.0 is less suspicious. His results this year from districts and sectionals was good but not world beating. And his UTR progression from 2021-2023 is pretty typical. Went from losing to 6s to only losing to 7s to only losing to 8s (of which there were a few at nationals he didn’t get to play). I didn’t get the vibes that he was intentionally hidden or tanking games. But definitely agree guys like him are an abuse of the system. Maybe similar to Fowkes guys but with a more honest start?

I ran into a guy recently in an 8.0 mixed match who was easily a high level 4.5 (and thought we were playing a 4.5-3.5 pair with a misrated woman). Afterwards, he said he was 4.0 rated. He said he took 5 years off from the sport after college and then self-rated 4.5 the previous but was rusty and lost every match his first season to get a 4.0 C rating. I looked up his record and it all checked out. This year, he played like 40 matches, so he's not rusty anymore, and won a match at 4.5 sectionals on his 4.0 C rating. Needless to say, he should be 4.5 when the new ratings come out.

 

[bobbybob14]

I ran into a guy recently in an 8.0 mixed match who was easily a high level 4.5 (and thought we were playing a 4.5-3.5 pair with a misrated woman). Afterwards, he said he was 4.0 rated. He said he took 5 years off from the sport after college and then self-rated 4.5 the previous but was rusty and lost every match his first season to get a 4.0 C rating. I looked up his record and it all checked out. This year, he played like 40 matches, so he's not rusty anymore, and won a match at 4.5 sectionals on his 4.0 C rating. Needless to say, he should be 4.5 when the new ratings come out.

That all seems pretty legitimate though doesn't it? Like a man who didn't play the system but was following it?

 

[Klitz]

That all seems pretty legitimate though doesn't it? Like a man who didn't play the system but was following it?

Are you asking if their(your?) efforts look legit on paper? Lol

 

[bobbybob14]

Are you asking if their(your?) efforts look legit on paper? Lol

Nope that isn't me. I was more just trying to get a feeling of if the original poster and others here would qualify that as "shenanigans" because it seems like a correct path. Assuming there wasn't something in his years prior taking time off that would throw off the 4.5 self rate.

 

[J_R_B]

That all seems pretty legitimate though doesn't it? Like a man who didn't play the system but was following it?

Yes. I see nothing wrong with anything he did.

 

[naylor73]

Damn, Tx spearman’s OSB went 0-0 in his first round singles match.

 

[schmke]

Damn, Tx spearman’s OSB went 0-0 in his first round singles match.

Was supposed to win pretty easily, not 0&0 easy but the opponent was not that strong. All the doubles courts had higher rated players for the opponent's team.

 

[schmke]

After first set of matches my simulation says Texas, Southern, MiddleWest, and SoCal most likely to advance, but it may come down to breaking a tie at 3-1 with NorCal and Mid-Atlantic there too.

 

[Klitz]

After first set of matches my simulation says Texas, Southern, MiddleWest, and SoCal most likely to advance, but it may come down to breaking a tie at 3-1 with NorCal and Mid-Atlantic there too.

I think SoCal is toast?

 

[schmke]

I think SoCal is toast?

Perhaps mathematical chance should they win 4-0, but no, doesn't look good.

 

[schmke]

I think SoCal is toast?

Took a closer look, and they didn't bring or play their best through their first three matches.

The player I had rated the highest hasn't played at all and the second highest has only played once. Players 8 thru 12 and 14 have played a combined 8 times. That might explain why they didn't have results matching the simulation.

Through playoffs prior to Nationals, their average rating played was 4.01. At Nationals it is 3.97. Not a huge difference but for the average to be 0.04 lower, that means they are effectively playing a 3.85 player instead of a 4.13 player, or two 3.90s instead of two 4.04s and in tight/close matches, that can be the difference.

 

[Klitz]

Took a closer look, and they didn't bring or play their best through their first three matches.

The player I had rated the highest hasn't played at all and the second highest has only played once. Players 8 thru 12 and 14 have played a combined 8 times. That might explain why they didn't have results matching the simulation.

Through playoffs prior to Nationals, their average rating played was 4.01. At Nationals it is 3.97. Not a huge difference but for the average to be 0.04 lower, that means they are effectively playing a 3.85 player instead of a 4.13 player, or two 3.90s instead of two 4.04s and in tight/close matches, that can be the difference.

That's all it takes when the margins are so tight.

So who you got for the last spot?

NorCal, Southern, or MidStates?

 

[schmke]

That's all it takes when the margins are so tight.

So who you got for the last spot?

NorCal, Southern, or MidStates?

Using who has played thus far, Southern gets the last spot 80% of the time and Middle States the other 20%. Very little chance the one of those that wins their head to head match doesn't pass NorCal.

 

[NumbersGuy]

Southern looks like the best team out there. TX won both matches today 2-2, tied on sets, won each by a couple of games. Looking forward to the end of four-line 40+.

 

[Klitz]

Southern looks like the best team out there. TX won both matches today 2-2, tied on sets, won each by a couple of games. Looking forward to the end of four-line 40+.

I can't believe that the Florida team lost.

Their #1 singles ringer had a 15 match win streak going. When Florida needed that singles win the most, he couldn't deliver. I can't imagine the pressure in that situation.

 

[NumbersGuy]

I wouldn’t fault the FL singles player. He ran into a buzzsaw as snaylor has opined in multiple posts. FL guy played his heart out as well as displaying great sportsmanship.

 

[schmke]

I wouldn’t fault the FL singles player. He ran into a buzzsaw as snaylor has opined in multiple posts. FL guy played his heart out as well as displaying great sportsmanship.

Yeah that singles match went pretty much as expected.

 

[naylor73]

I wouldn’t fault the FL singles player. He ran into a buzzsaw as snaylor has opined in multiple posts. FL guy played his heart out as well as displaying great sportsmanship.

I was honestly just surprised he double bageled the guy at nationals.

 

[schmke]

Middle States beat Southern 3-1, they are in to the semis.

 

[NumbersGuy]

So much for my prognostications

 

[Klitz]

I wouldn’t fault the FL singles player. He ran into a buzzsaw as snaylor has opined in multiple posts. FL guy played his heart out as well as displaying great sportsmanship.

15 match winning streak is not a buzzsaw?

 

[NumbersGuy]

Welcome to Nationals

 

[schmke]

So much for my prognostications

You and me both. Only one of my three favorites made it (Texas), but at least all of my contenders were contending (Middle States, Middlewest, NorCal, Southern) and the first two of them made it.

Intermountain was a favorite as was SoCal, I already mentioned SoCal didn't bring/play their best, same for IM. Players I had rated 1, 5, and 7 all didn't play.

Mid-Atlantic was the surprise, but they benefited from playing SoCal and an Eastern team that went 0-4 winning just 4 courts. That helped them beat out NorCal and Southern on the courts tie-breaker. Still, they pulled a few upsets on several courts along the way so a credit to them.

 

[jdarmstrong82]

I wonder what happened with SoCal’s top guy. He was really strong at sectionals and at that point had a tennisrecord number of around 4.4 and was self-rated, playing with an appeal down player. DQ?

 

[MarinaHighTennis]

I wonder what happened with SoCal’s top guy. He was really strong at sectionals and at that point had a tennisrecord number of around 4.4 and was self-rated, playing with an appeal down player. DQ?

Meniscus tear

 

[jdarmstrong82]

Meniscus tear

 

[jdarmstrong82]

 

[Klitz]

I just saw that a Mid-Atlantic guy has a 28 match win streak, and he is 20-0 in the playoffs. Holy Moly!!!!!!!

 

[schmke]

Meniscus tear

Removing him from my simulation changes SoCal from the original 4-0 to 3-1 which is where they finished.

 

[NumbersGuy]

I just saw that a Mid-Atlantic guy has a 28 match win streak, and he is 20-0 in the playoffs. Holy Moly!!!!!!!

It’s ringer vs ringer at singles in a match for the ages

 

[Klitz]

I find it interesting that someone that is on 28 match win streak and 20-0 in the playoffs goes unmentioned/ unquestioned on here.? That alone should be a shenanigans score of plus 5

 

[Vox Rationis]

I find it interesting that someone that is on 28 match win streak and 20-0 in the playoffs goes unmentioned/ unquestioned on here.? That alone should be a shenanigans score of plus 5

Definitely looks like there were some shenanigans. After doing well in nationals last year as presumably a self-rate, he then struggled in the rest of his matches that year against lesser opponents. Possible attempts to stay at 4.0.

 

[Klitz]

Well maybe it's karma, all winning streaks must end. When the team needed the 29th consecutive win, he couldn't pull the trigger...

Stats & Standings

m.tennislink.usta.com

 

[NumbersGuy]

Well maybe it's karma, all winning streaks must end. When the team needed the 29th consecutive win, he couldn't pull the trigger...

Stats & Standings

m.tennislink.usta.com

Apparently there are buzzsaws and then there are buzzsaws

 

[Klitz]

Apparently there are buzzsaws and then there are buzzsaws

Some people just got that Dawg in them, some don't.

 

[schmke]

Middle States won it over Texas 2-2 in the final by winning 4 more games. Two courts went to match tie-breaks and the teams split, Middle States 6-3,6-1 win on 1S got them the games they needed to break the tie.

Every court went as expected in the final, the two MTB courts had the winning team picked by 0.01 so was supposed to be that close!

 

[TypeRx]

Wonder why TX swapped their singles guy out for the final match. Perhaps he was too drained.
Nice to see "Middle States" (Philly) represent!

 

[fundrazer]

Know one guy from the 4.0 team but don't think I've played anyone else.

Is kind of validating to know my level isn't that far off from a guy on a team that wins nationals.