2023 Roland Garros R32: [1] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Denis Viktorovich Shapovalov [26]

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My anticipation of the score is...


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Wow. Credit to Shapovalov. Carlos does get into these early set lulls occasionally, but still good from Shaps.

I don’t have any confidence that he will consolidate.
 
Well, agree that the zoning front-runner tennis Carlos can display was breathtaking even last year.

But in 2022 he was very vulnerable as shown vs. ARV. I don't think anyone could do that to him now, not even close.

He's hitting with more spin and control off both wings and leaning into his defense more heavily. He will no longer donate 50+ UEs like he did last year.
He's definitely a better and more experienced player than he was at this time a year ago, there's no doubt about that, but he also has yet to beat anyone worth beating at any slam outside the US Open so being cautious in crowning him king is not that crazy.
 
I think Alcaraz’s biggest enemy here is the draw tbh. The way Musetti played today, and the way Alcaraz has these bizarre lulls, makes me think 4R is going to be a bit of a war for him and as much as Tsitsipas is a loser pigeon, I doubt that will be over in a quick 3 either
 
He's definitely a better and more experienced player than he was at this time a year ago, there's no doubt about that, but he also has yet to beat anyone worth beating at any slam outside the US Open so being cautious in crowning him king is not that crazy.
I do agree that there is a certain hollowness to a lot of this, as mesmerizing as it can be.

I’ve noticed, it’s very subtle but undeniably repetitive, Carlos still pauses a beat to aim his shots (and usually, he has the time to do so). When he faces depth consistently and doesn’t have that slight extra time to pause, he can spray a bit or get pulled out of control.

He looks amazing when on top in a rally, and can stay in one remarkably well defensively, but that middle tier of truly neutral rallying is still a bit iffy.
 
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