optic yellow
Legend
People are just scared to believe again, after so much false promise.
2023 Roland Garros SF: [1] Carlos Alcaraz vs. [3] Novak Djokovic
- Thread starter UnforcedTerror
- Start date
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
robyrolfo
Hall of Fame
Honestly, this really does seem crazy. Sometimes I'm amazed at how good/accurate bookmakers can be, but sometimes they are way off.
I would never count Djokovic out in a big slam match, especially now that he is rounding into form and relatively fresh. I'm not a fan of his, but the guy is on another level, and then another level beyond that under pressure. There is no way he gets beaten easily, and I honestly don't see how he gets beaten at all.
What is the "you can't tell me..." culture? Genuine question. Do you mean parents not letting coaches coach their kids? Or kids not listening to coaches?
S
Slicehand
Guest
they should watch more and listen less, dont believe if someone tells you this or that player is good, watch some of him matches, and there you can see if he has something else, with alcaraz, just 3 matches were enough for me, with shapo, for exmple, i always knew he had a long way to go, and never saw a real ascendent progression, with zverev, he had the potential, but never to be an all time great, his game was powerfull, but he wasnt as completle or had a great tennis mind, people should watch more tennis and maybe like that they wont get as dissapointed
optic yellow
Legend
Eye test is most descriptive, I agree.
S
Slicehand
Guest
also, to believe in what exactly? what is there to believe? that this guy is good and can win slams? because thats proven already, so whats that? that he can win 20 slams? well you can never make a prediction like that because there are too many variables involved, for one he is a much better player that fed or nole were at his age, and he is being more dominant than nadal was out of clay at that age for sure
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
match of the year,, match of the decade.. tomorrow. This match should be like put on DVD and go on sale.... We all should call in sick at work and watch this match live
LeastExhaustingPlayer
Professional
Kids not listening to the coaches and not willing to put in the tremendous amount of hard work required to reach the top level.
Some parents can get in the way also.
Then there is the insane media hype and pressure that comes along with it.
ESPN had me believe Coco Gauff would win more majors than Fed, Nadal, Djokovic, Court, Serena, Graf combined...all before the age of 20!
LeastExhaustingPlayer
Professional
Fixed it for you.
Rattie
G.O.A.T.
Michael Chang says Djokovic must take chances in the semi final.
A winner at Roland-Garros as a 17-year-old in 1989, Michael Chang understands the expectations that come with being a breakout star.
He also recognises the pressure of time bearing down on a proven champion.
“If you play against guys that play very well and are aggressive from the back, if you don't mix it up, it's very easy for them to get in a rhythm and if they're in a rhythm it's tough to get them out of it,” Chang said of the showdown.
“I think Novak is going to have to play offensive tennis. He's going to have to take some balls early, take some chances and he's going to have to do it consistently.
“I don't think he's going to want to be out there playing 10 feet back, tracking balls down side to side with a guy who's younger, who's incredibly fit, incredibly hungry to win Roland-Garros.”
Chang said the chance of nerves affecting the reigning US Open champion - who is 16 years the Serbian’s junior - would be highly unlikely.
“I think he would start that way a little bit but once the match got going, after a few games, I don't think that'd necessarily be a factor,” the former world No.2 said. “He's played Novak and been on these big stages enough already to not be in awe of the occasion, so I don't think so.”
The top-seeded Spaniard has claimed the honours against Djokovic in their only prior encounter in Madrid last May.
This will be their first meeting on a major stage, an entirely different prospect.
Former French world No.5 Henri Leconte, runner-up in Paris in 1988, believes Djokovic cannot afford to let the top seed dictate completely on his terms.
“If you let him play a little bit more you will be in a very bad situation because he's hitting the ball so hard,” Leconte said of Alcaraz.
“It's complicated because he has everything. He serves well, returns well. The only thing maybe is he's staying very far back. You have to mix most of the time.
“Try to kick serve and try to play a little bit like John McEnroe was doing - long shots, short ones – that would be maybe more difficult for him. The problem is he has to let you play. If he's on, it's complicated.”
www.rolandgarros.com
A winner at Roland-Garros as a 17-year-old in 1989, Michael Chang understands the expectations that come with being a breakout star.
He also recognises the pressure of time bearing down on a proven champion.
“If you play against guys that play very well and are aggressive from the back, if you don't mix it up, it's very easy for them to get in a rhythm and if they're in a rhythm it's tough to get them out of it,” Chang said of the showdown.
“I think Novak is going to have to play offensive tennis. He's going to have to take some balls early, take some chances and he's going to have to do it consistently.
“I don't think he's going to want to be out there playing 10 feet back, tracking balls down side to side with a guy who's younger, who's incredibly fit, incredibly hungry to win Roland-Garros.”
Chang said the chance of nerves affecting the reigning US Open champion - who is 16 years the Serbian’s junior - would be highly unlikely.
“I think he would start that way a little bit but once the match got going, after a few games, I don't think that'd necessarily be a factor,” the former world No.2 said. “He's played Novak and been on these big stages enough already to not be in awe of the occasion, so I don't think so.”
The top-seeded Spaniard has claimed the honours against Djokovic in their only prior encounter in Madrid last May.
This will be their first meeting on a major stage, an entirely different prospect.
Former French world No.5 Henri Leconte, runner-up in Paris in 1988, believes Djokovic cannot afford to let the top seed dictate completely on his terms.
“If you let him play a little bit more you will be in a very bad situation because he's hitting the ball so hard,” Leconte said of Alcaraz.
“It's complicated because he has everything. He serves well, returns well. The only thing maybe is he's staying very far back. You have to mix most of the time.
“Try to kick serve and try to play a little bit like John McEnroe was doing - long shots, short ones – that would be maybe more difficult for him. The problem is he has to let you play. If he's on, it's complicated.”
Chang: Djokovic must take chances against Alcaraz - Roland-Garros - The 2023 Roland-Garros Tournament official site
1989 RG champion breaks down how Serbian can come out on top in semi-finals
www.rolandgarros.com
I think part of the reason the odds are the way they are is Djokovic hasn't shown that mental fortitude at Roland Garros nearly as often as at the other slams. Even putting Nadal to one side, he has lost to Cecchinato there, Thiem got him in a tight match one time and another that wasn't so close. Wawrinka, Federer. I just don't think you can give him the same benefit of the doubt there you can at the other slams, particularly AO and Wimbledon
optic yellow
Legend
Believe that he is actually a player at that level, where there is a degree of inevitability about him. That is what it is that distinguishes the Big 3 from any of the successors until Alcaraz and unites them with Sampras and Agassi.
The Guru
G.O.A.T.
I will say even though I still think Alcaraz wins I think Novak will want it more. I think he’ll have a sense of desperation that will drive him. I’m sure he knows that if loses the world and Alcaraz will see it as a changing of the guard moment and he will lose some of his aura which will just make it harder for him to win in the future. If he wins this though he reasserts his dominance and keeps his edge.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Yeah and the 2 days off helped
That describes Novak's entire season lol
That's a large part of the reason that Djokovic has still been dominating slams in his mid 30s, the generous time to recover between matches. More roofs now mean the top players likely won't have to play back to back days any more like they used to sometimes (eg. Nadal-Soderling at Wimbledon that stretched over 5 days)
TTMR
Hall of Fame
Sure, most just don't go into it anyway because the reward isn't worth the investment. But the best athletes go into other sports:
optic yellow said:
Football, basketball, baseball, hockey, golf, and maybe auto racing would all be ahead of tennis.
Americans are more inclined to the big four team sports, and among individual sports tennis is behind golf. In Europe, tennis is sometimes the #2 sport, but generally no worse than #4. Better athletes go into it there.
optic yellow
Legend
Baseball sure, most tennis players are too short to be credible basketball players, youth football participation rates are declining due to the risk of long term cognitive injury, hockey is a niche sport outside of the Upper M1dwest and Northeast, golf does not demand the use of explosive athletic talent enough to strongly advantage those with supreme gifts; most professional golfers are good not exceptional athletes, same with auto racing.
Edit: Why does the bad word filter block M idwest lool
btsjungkook
Professional
Djokovic got bagelled by Thiem in 2017, will he be bagelled by the new king of clay?
Mark Anderson
Professional
I know, I should have voted for Alcaraz in three and not four.
Mark Anderson
Professional
Oh, Djokovic is definitely ranked
Mark Anderson
Professional
It's the nanobots paolo.
Mark Anderson
Professional
Did you you watch the most boring match in history where Murray beat Djokovic in the final at the USO. What a don't take a chance fest that was.
sportsfan1
Legend
Before the 2022 raz vs zverev rg qf, 85% in the thread poll chose raz as the winner over zverev. Wouldn't necessarily fault them either, but that should tell you something about picking raz as the heavy favorite over some dude that's won 22 of these slam thingys.
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
2022 Roland Garros QF: [3] Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz [6]
Zverev's 12th approach to defeat a Top 10 opponent in BO5 formula. He's at 0-11 at this moment: 01 2016 AO R128: #2 Murray 0-3 [1-6 2-6 3-6] 02 2016 WIM R32: #9 Berdych 1-3 [3-6 4-6 6-4 1-6] 03 2017 AO R32: #9 Nadal 2-3 [6-4 3-6 7-6 3-6 2-6] 04 2017 WIM R16: #7 Raonic 2-3 [6-4...
tt.tennis-warehouse.com
Mark Anderson
Professional
Why do people say until Nadal and Djokovic retire. They are going to be retired irregardless.
NeutralFan
G.O.A.T.
Because favourite on TTW doesn't win most of the time. Remember last year? Remember when Med was favourite against Novak and Nadal at AO?
NeutralFan
G.O.A.T.
I agree but only problem is Hewitt was not an attacking baseliner like Carlos is and Rune is not a shot maker - attacking baseliner like Fed is.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Who is the crowd going to root for at the start? Once Djokovic trails in sets, they might root for him to make it a longer match. But will they root for him at the start?
abmk
Bionic Poster
Alcaraz has the better (faster+heavier) fh, movement and yes, even return on clay this year. also better at transition game+net play. bh is similar this year on clay so far, though Djokovic's ceiling is still higher. He has better stamina and the mental strength required to beat Djokovic in Bo5.
Djokovic has the better serve, better depth of both wings and more experience. He could raise his bh to be better Alcaraz's for a stretch in the match, same goes for the return on clay. But he won't be able to sustain it for long at this age on clay unless Alcaraz's level really dips compared to his matches at RG so far.
Either Alcaraz does it in 4 sets with Djokovic raising his level enough for a set (with maybe Alcaraz dipping) or does it in 3 recovering from a dip just in time to win a close set.
Alcaraz's level might dip to some extent, but unless it dips significantly (either due to UEs or mental pressure), don't see Djoko getting more than a set. Likelihood of Djokovic turning the clock back to RG 21 semi form is less.
edited my prediction post #82 to include this ^^
Djokovic has the better serve, better depth of both wings and more experience. He could raise his bh to be better Alcaraz's for a stretch in the match, same goes for the return on clay. But he won't be able to sustain it for long at this age on clay unless Alcaraz's level really dips compared to his matches at RG so far.
Either Alcaraz does it in 4 sets with Djokovic raising his level enough for a set (with maybe Alcaraz dipping) or does it in 3 recovering from a dip just in time to win a close set.
Alcaraz's level might dip to some extent, but unless it dips significantly (either due to UEs or mental pressure), don't see Djoko getting more than a set. Likelihood of Djokovic turning the clock back to RG 21 semi form is less.
edited my prediction post #82 to include this ^^
abmk
Bionic Poster
Alcaraz went 5 vs ARV last year in RG 2022. He demolished Shapo, Musetti and Tsitsipas in a row this year.
In 2022, Alcaraz's stats on clay till and including French Open:
service games held: 84%
return games won: 32.8%
TBs won: 5/11
total games won: 58.7%
In 2023, Alcaraz's stats on clay before French Open:
service games held: 83.7% (180/215)
return games won: 37.6% (80/213)
TBs won: 2/5
total games won: 60.8% (291/479)
at the FO:
quick check of Alcaraz's games won:
19/26 (1st round)
21/31 (2nd round)
18/25 (3rd round)
18/25 (4th round)
19/28 (5th round)
Total = 95/135 (70.37%)
which makes his stats on clay for this year - games won as:
(291+95)/(479+135) = 386/614 = 62.87%
which is good 4% over last year's 58.7%. A level above.
for a comparision at this RG:
Djokovic
19/30 (1st round)
19/28
20/34
18/25
23/41
total = 99/158 (62.66%), a good 6.5% below Alcaraz's at RG even when facing lesser clay calibre opposition.
before RG, djokovic games won on clay this year -> 105/194
so for the season, Djokovic is at 204/352 (57.95%)
nearly a good 5% below Alcaraz's.
Last edited:
S
Slicehand
Guest
its ok, if you already knew the answer you wouldnt even need to watch the match, people here very obssesed with the outcome when all that matters to us is that its gonna be an epic match, its the ride, not the destiny
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
10 Pages already? For a match hyped that will likely be over quick in an easy alcaraz win! Lol
NeutralFan
G.O.A.T.
Big names sell the matches ,son!
S
Slicehand
Guest
i think its gonna be more disputed than people think, i dont see novak going down that easily
Cortana
Legend
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
I had a dream of it! Then woke up fast to reality! Haha The reason it’s over 10 pages is because all the Fedal fans have piled in knowing they going to get what they want! Lol
D
Deleted member 765728
Guest
Alcaraz in 3/4 or Djokovic in five. Carlos is younger, more explosive and can generate more raw power, while Novak is a an experienced champion, eager (probably more than anyone) to hold the slam record, so I wouldn't count him out, even though Carlos's has been more consistent/impressive at this RG.
jl809
Legend
One thing, if Djokovic tries the drop shot spamming that he's done against Other Spaniard in recent years, it's going to end even worse than it did in those matches, because there is almost nothing that Alcaraz won't chase down unless it's executed to perfection (and Djoker's dropper is ****ing mid af), but more than that, Alcaraz is so damn good at retrieving the drop-shotter's NEXT shot (i.e. the volley they try to put away after Alcaraz has responded to the dropper). I've even seen him hit lobs off them as he's running back towards the baseline
Benf15harp
Hall of Fame
I have a TAO PATCH SPORT in the cart!!
If NOLE wins today, I’m ordering the human upgrade!!
If tiny wins, I’m going to start smoking cigs to stunt my growth so I can be more like Carl.
If NOLE wins today, I’m ordering the human upgrade!!
If tiny wins, I’m going to start smoking cigs to stunt my growth so I can be more like Carl.
middleballs
Professional
Yeah, that wouldn’t be a good look for Nole. Hasn’t his drop shots been pretty ineffective the last few years? It seems like he mostly deploys it when he’s either out of ideas or tired.
optic yellow
Legend
Is there consensus drop shot is the weakest part of Novak's game?
Ralph
Hall of Fame
I'd say his overhead is the weakest part.
TheNachoMan
Legend
If Novak wins can we give him the hypothetical USO 2022 slam?
jl809
Legend
Talk tennis poll has it for Alcaraz
ATP.com poll has it for Djoker
Some pundits/experts e.g. McEnroe, whole of Tennis Podcast, Gill Gross etc have got Alcaraz winning
Some pundits/experts eg Carrillo, Gilbert, Craig OS etc have got Djoker winning
Betting markets have Alcaraz winning
I don’t think there’s a unanimous favourite at all
ATP.com poll has it for Djoker
Some pundits/experts e.g. McEnroe, whole of Tennis Podcast, Gill Gross etc have got Alcaraz winning
Some pundits/experts eg Carrillo, Gilbert, Craig OS etc have got Djoker winning
Betting markets have Alcaraz winning
I don’t think there’s a unanimous favourite at all
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