Coco ain't winning this.
There are only two possible outcomes:
1. Sab wins it.
2. Sab loses it.
It's ALL on her racket.
OK folks it's time for my match analysis.
I will cut right to the chase. Yesterday I made the above post saying Gauff will not win the match.
I said Sab will either win or lose the match, it was all on her racket.
This was midway into the second set!
I was already starting to see the writing on the wall. Despite her winning the first set, I could see Sab beginning to cave in.
It still wasn't clear at that point how the match would turn out, but the cracks were starting with Sab's game
and I knew she could easily lose it, even at that early stage, being up a set.
Shot for shot, Sab is a stronger player than Gauff. Once a rally begins it is Sab who is usually in the driver's seat.
But that does not automatically translate into points won by Sab.
Strategy, point construction, shot precision, power/control of shot and feel all are important factors for each point
won or lost.
But probably THE most important factor of all is the mental factor. The demons that torment her mind.
This is and probably will always be Sab's Achilles' heel.
While she certainly has improved in this department the past couple of years, it still has a habit
of returning in almost every match she plays.
It all depends on who she is playing, how close the match is, what the stakes are etc. etc.
She wears her heart on her sleeve and her emotions are always on full display for not only the fans,
but most importantly for her opponent.
On paper Sab should have taken the match yesterday. But that totally ignores the mental factor.
I didn't have the sound turned on for much of yesterday's match nor for the Sab-Keys match.
But when I did have it on it was clear as day that the crowd was massively behind Keys and even
more so with Gauff.
Sab was able to get by this annoyance in the Keys match and turn things around to win a squeaker
of a match by the tightest of margins. We had two big babes hitting big balls!
Now let's get to the heart of the matter (which is directly related to Sab's mental factor).
Winners and unforced errors. The tally of these two shot categories will usually tell the whole
picture of a match.
Let's build up slowly, beginning with her Kasatkina match on Sep. 4. 6-1, 6-3
Winners: Kasat: 7 Sab: 31
U.E.'s: Kasat: 11 Sab: 23
We will see that in general, Sab has a habit of going for broke quite often in matches.
Her U.E. count was twice as big as Kasat's but this was countered by hitting more than
four times as many winners.
Next up, her Zheng match on Sep. 6. 6-1, 6-4
Winners: Zheng: 13 Sab: 17
U.E.'s: Zheng: 16 Sab: 12
Here we see that Sab played an extremely clean and efficient match by her standards.
A higher winners count was to be expected of course, but she actually had fewer unforced
errors than her opponent! That was most unusual.
Next up, her Keys match on Sep. 7. 0-6, 7-6 (6-1) , 7-6 (10-5)
Winners: Keys: 32 Sab: 35
U.E.'s: Keys: 35 Sab: 39
These stats are very striking and also very telling.
First they show it was a very closely contested match, which
it was indeed!
Next they show Sab edging out Keys ever so slightly on the winners count.
And no surprise at all, especially with a long three sets match, we have Sab
tallying a whopping 39 unforced errors, surpassing even Key's high number
of 35.
So all of this translates to the conclusion that it's OK to have a high number
of U.E.'s, providing your opponent is also making them!
And now finally the final from yesterday, Sep. 9 6-2, 3-6, 2-6
Winners: Gauff: 13 Sab: 25
U.E.'s: Gauff: 19 Sab: 46
These numbers back up my rather odd statement at the top when I said
that Gauff will not win the match; Sab will either win or lose it.
Sab hit almost twice as many winners as Gauff. That showed who was really
in control (the driver's seat) for most of the match.
But the KILLER, the reason why Sab lost the match in the end, was her 46 unforced
errors. The tally was more than twice as many U.E.'s than Gauff made.
This post is not meant to take anything away from Gauff.
Her game continues to get stronger and stronger each year that passes.
The post is simply meant to explain how and why Sab lost yesterday.
