2023 US Open - Official Thread for Men's Singles

Who will win US Open?


  • Total voters
    139
  • Poll closed .

Rattie

Legend
Djokovic-Fritz, GOAT vs US #1 is scheduled for the day session in the heat, but Shelton-Tiafoe, two Americans worse than Fritz, is apparently the prime time night session in the cool weather.

Hmmm…
I don’t think 29 degrees that feels like 37 degrees at night is cool weather.
 

tudwell

Legend
If my calculations are correct, these are the stats for the top four favorites through the first week (apologies if I made any errors):

Dominance ratio:
Djokovic 1.69
Medvedev 1.52
Alcaraz 1.49
Sinner 1.46

Games won:
Medvedev 71%
Djokovic 69%
Sinner 65%
Alcaraz 64%

Not sure how much can truly be gleaned from looking at just the first week, but I think it’s interesting that these games-won stats reflect the players’ season-wide hard court stats. Djokovic and Medvedev are a few percentage points above Sinner and Alcaraz there, and they are here as well so far.

Novak is overall clearly more dominant than everyone else so far – even with the slow start against Djere. I think he’s still clearly the best hard court player in the world. The gap isn’t enormous and any of the other three could potentially beat him in the final, but I think it makes sense to call him the favorite at the moment.
Updated after round of 16:

Dominance ratio:
Djokovic 1.64
Alcaraz 1.50
Medvedev 1.45

Games won:
Djokovic 68%
Medvedev 68%
Alcaraz 64%

Removing Sinner since he lost. Alcaraz has overtaken Medvedev in dominance ratio, if my math is right. Med still has the lead in games won but I blame that mostly on the first round. Daniil had a truly overmatched opponent, even by ordinary first-round-slam-match standards, and Alcaraz's opponent retired before things could get too lopsided. If Koepfer had finished the match at about the same level as the portion he actually played, then Carlitos's games-won % could be a point or two higher and the gap between him and Medovic wouldn't look like a whole lot. Djokovic is still comfortably ahead in dominance ratio.

Surprisingly (to me, at least), Medvedev has been the best on return. Almost half of return points won (49%) – Djokovic and Alcaraz are several comfortably lower (44-45%). On the other hand, he's been the least efficient on serve. Djokovic has been the most efficient on serve and also winning about 1.3% more return points than Alcaraz. Obviously opposition matters in such a small sample size, but I'm not really seeing any obvious outliers in any of these guys' opponents who would radically skew things (the way Sinner's stats would have been against Zverev, say, had he won that match).

Think it's fair to say Novak has still statistically been the best (of these three, I haven't looked at Fritz or anybody else), but the margin is narrowing.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Updated after round of 16:

Dominance ratio:
Djokovic 1.64
Alcaraz 1.50
Medvedev 1.45

Games won:
Djokovic 68%
Medvedev 68%
Alcaraz 64%

Removing Sinner since he lost. Alcaraz has overtaken Medvedev in dominance ratio, if my math is right. Med still has the lead in games won but I blame that mostly on the first round. Daniil had a truly overmatched opponent, even by ordinary first-round-slam-match standards, and Alcaraz's opponent retired before things could get too lopsided. If Koepfer had finished the match at about the same level as the portion he actually played, then Carlitos's games-won % could be a point or two higher and the gap between him and Medovic wouldn't look like a whole lot. Djokovic is still comfortably ahead in dominance ratio.

Surprisingly (to me, at least), Medvedev has been the best on return. Almost half of return points won (49%) – Djokovic and Alcaraz are several comfortably lower (44-45%). On the other hand, he's been the least efficient on serve. Djokovic has been the most efficient on serve and also winning about 1.3% more return points than Alcaraz. Obviously opposition matters in such a small sample size, but I'm not really seeing any obvious outliers in any of these guys' opponents who would radically skew things (the way Sinner's stats would have been against Zverev, say, had he won that match).

Think it's fair to say Novak has still statistically been the best (of these three, I haven't looked at Fritz or anybody else), but the margin is narrowing.

How do you factor in Zod's 80% win rate on first serves, especially given that he was playing a great returner like Sinner? That was pretty astounding.
 

tudwell

Legend
How do you factor in Zod's 80% win rate on first serves, especially given that he was playing a great returner like Sinner? That was pretty astounding.
Hmm. US Open site has him at 70% behind first serves in last night's match. And Sinner was hardly moving for some of those in the third set, which might inflate things a tad. That 70% mark is where he's at in his other matches too, with the exception for his first round (whopping 86% of first serves won). He's getting 70% of first serves in, though, or close to it, which is a big number. He'll need to keep that up, or maybe even take things to a slightly higher gear, to have a real chance against Alcaraz or Medvedev, in my opinion.
 
Tiafoe-Shelton has much higher entertainment potential, two of the most flamboyant American Men players. Makes sense to put them on primetime.
No true tennis fan would utter such words. ESPN, Foxsports, etc. are brainwashing too many Americans. Case in point, Stephen A Smith and Skip Bayless making millions spewing nonsense.
 
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Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Hmm. US Open site has him at 70% behind first serves in last night's match. And Sinner was hardly moving for some of those in the third set, which might inflate things a tad. That 70% mark is where he's at in his other matches too, with the exception for his first round (whopping 86% of first serves won). He's getting 70% of first serves in, though, or close to it, which is a big number. He'll need to keep that up, or maybe even take things to a slightly higher gear, to have a real chance against Alcaraz or Medvedev, in my opinion.

I meant, how does that factor into your dominance ratio? For him, I feel those numbers are more indicative of his level of play than games won.
 

Honza

Rookie
What.... In what world is 3 of the 4 players in the bottom half all being top 10 "the first round of an ATP250"?

I know people here can act dumb but Tiafoe and Fritz are both quite literally top 10 in the world.


Fritz is playing very good. Looking forward to Tiafoe or Shelton.
Anyone of the 4 from the top draw could put up more resistance.
 

bluetrain4

G.O.A.T.
I have no idea if the Fritz "lighter than most pros" racquet thing is true, but it looks like it when he tries to bunt those lobs.
 

intrepidish

Hall of Fame
Fritz is playing very good. Looking forward to Tiafoe or Shelton.
Anyone of the 4 from the top draw could put up more resistance.

Anyone of the 4 from the top of the draw and probably several other players knocked out by them could provide more resistance than Fritz.

He looks like he's playing while strapped to roller skates half the time (and not the good half).
 

tudwell

Legend
I meant, how does that factor into your dominance ratio? For him, I feel those numbers are more indicative of his level of play than games won.
Oh. I haven’t actually calculated Zverev’s numbers but the more efficiently you hold serve, the higher your dominance ratio is gonna be (well, as long as return-points-won stays equal). So a high first-serve % and a high win-% behind it bodes well.
 
It's going to be awfully tough for Alca to beat Zebra, likely Med, then most likely Joco to defend his USO title. That is a huge ask. If Alca accomplishes it, the title will be well-deserved. I give him about a 25% chance.
 

Honza

Rookie
What.... In what world is 3 of the 4 players in the bottom half all being top 10 "the first round of an ATP250"?

I know people here can act dumb but Tiafoe and Fritz are both quite literally top 10 in the world.


Geez that was terribad from the top 10 players Tiafoe and Fritz. Seemed like first round of an ATP250 to me :p

Novak is having nice two weeks in the bottom half coming very rested into the final.
 

paolo2143

Professional
Come on Sasha play your lights out tonight and prove me wrong as i am expecting Carlos to beat a tired Zverev quite comfortably.
 
Come on Sasha play your lights out tonight and prove me wrong as i am expecting Carlos to beat a tired Zverev quite comfortably.
I’m not sure about this year but Zverev had a good history of recovering well from long matches in past. He’s physically been a very fit player.

He’s obviously took time to get back but he’s probably playing the best he has prior to his injury. Hopefully he’s physically good and plays well to give Carlos a test tonight.
 

tudwell

Legend
Updated after round of 16:

Dominance ratio:
Djokovic 1.64
Alcaraz 1.50
Medvedev 1.45

Games won:
Djokovic 68%
Medvedev 68%
Alcaraz 64%

Removing Sinner since he lost. Alcaraz has overtaken Medvedev in dominance ratio, if my math is right. Med still has the lead in games won but I blame that mostly on the first round. Daniil had a truly overmatched opponent, even by ordinary first-round-slam-match standards, and Alcaraz's opponent retired before things could get too lopsided. If Koepfer had finished the match at about the same level as the portion he actually played, then Carlitos's games-won % could be a point or two higher and the gap between him and Medovic wouldn't look like a whole lot. Djokovic is still comfortably ahead in dominance ratio.

Surprisingly (to me, at least), Medvedev has been the best on return. Almost half of return points won (49%) – Djokovic and Alcaraz are several comfortably lower (44-45%). On the other hand, he's been the least efficient on serve. Djokovic has been the most efficient on serve and also winning about 1.3% more return points than Alcaraz. Obviously opposition matters in such a small sample size, but I'm not really seeing any obvious outliers in any of these guys' opponents who would radically skew things (the way Sinner's stats would have been against Zverev, say, had he won that match).

Think it's fair to say Novak has still statistically been the best (of these three, I haven't looked at Fritz or anybody else), but the margin is narrowing.
Updated after quarters – and I’ll throw Shelton in there for fun:

Dominance ratio:
Djokovic 1.54
Alcaraz 1.45
Medvedev 1.35
Shelton 1.26

Games won:
Djokovic 67.3%
Medvedev 66.9%
Alcaraz 64.7%
Shelton 58.2%

Medvedev’s dominance ratio has plummeted the last two rounds. He’s still winning almost half of return points but he’s getting worse on the serve – the least efficient server of the four semi finalists by some margin (like, winning a full 5% fewer serve points). As a result, Alcaraz has overtaken him in dominance ratio, although he still lags behind in games won. Djokovic still in front in both categories, although the margins grow slimmer.

I’d have more hope in Medvedev’s chances in the semifinal if he were cruising on serve. I think his return stats are gonna plummet against Alcaraz, not because Alcaraz’s serve is especially good but because he has every tool in the world to punish Medvedev’s return position on the third ball. He can come to net, he can blast a big forehand, he can dink an impossible drop shot. Med’s gonna be out of sorts as usual. So he really needs to hold serve – and if I’ve counted correctly, he’s already dropped serve 11 times this tournament. Carlos just 4 times (the least of all four guys). I think we’re in for another Wimbledon-like match, unless Medvedev can serve from a tree (which he hasn’t done at all this fortnight) or bring something radically new on the return.

In the other semi, I think it’s clear Shelton is going to be well and truly overmatched on Friday. Not only is Djokovic in a different league on return but he’s even been holding serve more comfortably. Not sure what Shelton can do here except redline his serve for as long as possible. I think the absolute best he does is to snatch a tight set and maybe make another tight as well, but most likely a comfortable straight-setter for Novak.

Gonna be another boring round before we get to the fireworks of the final. Buckle up.
 

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
Men's doubles getting ignored again.............. ESPN not even covering it escept online.. LOL. and even this TW board is not taking about it.... Should we just get rid of Doubles from all pro tournaments ?? :-D :unsure:
 

Baseline_Bungle

Hall of Fame
So I was watching some of the wheelchair matches and I must say, these guys are pretty impressive.

I do have a question though: if one player is an especially good retriever, would it still be appropriate to say "he has good wheels"?
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
So I was watching some of the wheelchair matches and I must say, these guys are pretty impressive.

I do have a question though: if one player is an especially good retriever, would it still be appropriate to say "he has good wheels"?

Yes, I think that's the only way to put it.
 

Eureka

Professional
Just a note to say very well done to Rajiv Ram and Joe Salisbury for winning the USO men's doubles title!! I know this is a thread for the singles matches but trust I'll be excused! It's their 3rd successive USO title.


 

THUNDERVOLLEY

G.O.A.T.
Obviously I believe that CARLOS will defend his title :) :) :) :) Vamos!!!!! :) :) :) :)
Ah, the unjustified overconfidence in Alcatraz, or whatever his name is. For all who thought he's some invincible force and leaving Djokovic behind....well, it serves as a reminder to not build up any current generation player as some ATG (or higher) before they've actually earned that distinction.
 

Vincent-C

Hall of Fame
Ah, the unjustified overconfidence in Alcatraz, or whatever his name is. For all who thought he's some invincible force and leaving Djokovic behind....well, it serves as a reminder to not build up any current generation player as some ATG (or higher) before they've actually earned that distinction.
I agree with your comment.
 
You and commenter DSH have some commonalities, I think.

BTW: "it's" is a contraction of "it is", only.
a) I was too lazy (read: tired of typing on a phone keyboard) to fix the typo, which I suppose I have to mea culpa for considering the joke was based off of a typo.
b) I've noticed it is normal for posters to have some commonalities with others? Not sure if you are just noting this or rather trying to insinuate something.
 
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