I was discussing this in a different thread, but I thought this needed a thread of its own.
Nadal is less of a shocker, because you can tell he is in decline physically. That is only going to get worse. Djokovic is the one more people may be confused by
On Djokovic - In my estimation He's never winning the AO again, even if he plays next year. He is never winning the USO again, even if he plays next year. I'd give him a 10% shot of winning another FO, just because the clay field is amazingly weak now. And I'd said he's the favorite for Wimby 2023. After that, its night-night. Djokovic's slam count will end on 22.
there’s a new ATG talent with ATG confidence. There are two 35+ ATGs who have been obviously declining (Nadal physically, Djokovic in consistency). As they continue to get older, the young ATG gets better. Nadal will take this USO, and maybe next year’s FO. Djokovic is the favorite to take next year’s Wimbledon. AO and USO 2023 are Alcaraz’, unless Sinner shows tremendous improvement and is able to steal one of the hard court majors off Alcaraz.
Alcaraz has a level of consistent offense that can absolutely wipe anyone off the map. No other young gun has this (On Sinner, note consistent). He is the one.
He has no mental red flags. He doesn’t berate umpires or blow gaskets when things aren’t going his way. His family do not hail him as the GOAT (his parents even said he shouldn’t be compared to ATGs.). He has touch and feel at the net and on the baseline, but can whip out the power almost any time he wants and from almost any position. Let’s not even mention his insane speed and fitness.
Alcaraz has played 4 masters this year. His first, he reached the SF. At two of the others he won the title, on two separate surfaces. The only blemish on his record is the Monte Carlo 2R loss.
At the last 4 Majors he has played, Alcaraz’ results: QF-3R-QF-4R
Expect at the very least an SF berth at the USO.
I will slow down on the hype if I see him have the same issues on HC that he has on clay and grass. There is a reason Nadal and Djokovic will still own clay and grass respectively next year. In regards to Sinner’s dispatch of Alcaraz at Wimbledon, return issues are amplified on grass. I understand his ROS isn’t up to par with the rest of his game, but grass is where that matters 2X. He can get away with it on HC. He’s not good enough at this very moment to win USO, but all the HC he will play for the rest of the year will prepare him for the AO, where he will be the winner IMO.
He will take the HC majors in the next year (barring Sinner explosion), and by 2024 Nadal and Djokovic will not be able to keep up with him, and probably an upgraded Sinner. 36 and 37 are not ages that can surpass even a Tier 3 ATG, which is Alcaraz’ floor.
