2024 18+ 4.0M Preview

[Racquet Scientist]

For the history buffs, the team out of Jackson has a lot of parallels with the 2017 champs out of there. It seems there is something about the culture of these smaller markets that incentivizes ringers.

Doing a quick analysis, it does not seem that this team used the same formula really that past teams have, including the main one focused on in this forum. They used part of it. Correct me if I am missing something, but it seems more that these self-rates and computer-rated players were at the limit of what the strikes will pick up. The players do not look like they hid. They played in multiple leagues at the appropriate positions, etc.

Yes, I think these types of players are not 4.0 self-rates. However, I think these data just show how lenient the strike thresholds are and how they do not match up with the self-rate questionnaire.

 

[MadisonTennis]

One of their singles players was a self rate this year. I was surprised he was not DQd at state or southern. If you go back a year, it is easy to see how several others kept their rating during the season. A few straight set losses to opponents rated lower than 4.0

 

[travlerajm]

Singles ringers indeed. Both played all six matches, both went 6-0, and by my calculations their average match rating for the tournament was 4.29.

That actually doesn’t sound that far above level… just average 4.5 guys.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

One of their singles players was a self rate this year. I was surprised he was not DQd at state or southern. If you go back a year, it is easy to see how several others kept their rating during the season. A few straight set losses to opponents rated lower than 4.0

Thank you for this further information. It ain't hard to find information about the self-rate singles player this year. His results do not look suspicious to me. He played a lot at Districts and Sectionals. His tennis accolades do. You just can't win at this level without guys like that though based on what the recent data show.

 

[MadisonTennis]

They had a really good team with a lot of depth. Of course it helped not losing any singles lines. I would like to think most of that team will be bumped to 4.5 which will not disappoint the other local and state 4.0 teams

 

[schmke]

However, I think these data just show how lenient the strike thresholds are and how they do not match up with the self-rate questionnaire.

Exactly, something I've said for years. To get three strikes, particularly at lower levels, you have to effectvely be playing closer to two levels above than at level. To me that is too high.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

Exactly, something I've said for years. To get three strikes, particularly at lower levels, you have to effectvely be playing closer to two levels above than at level. To me that is too high.

Will there be a DQ this week for the winners? We've seen that happen in the past. Seems to be a "4.0 18+ Nationals" tradition at this point.

 

[schmke]

Will there be a DQ this week for the winners? We've seen that happen in the past. Seems to be a "4.0 Nationals" tradition at this point.

I'd say it is likely. Does the USTA consider that "normal"? Or is that a red-flag that makes them consider how to fix it?

 

[GrassCourtFan]

That actually doesn’t sound that far above level… just average 4.5 guys.

This was 4.0 nationals, not 4.5

 

[Tiafoe]

Jackson, MS won:

3.5 Nationals in 2016
4.0 Nationals in 2017
4.0 Nationals this year

There was only 1 player on both teams in 2016 and 2017.

One dude on the 2016 3.5 team was on this year's 4.0 championship team.

As mentioned, they recruit a huge area, even into other states like Tennessee.

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

It might sound strange to recruit 3 states but on the one hand some cities or towns more aptly said in the south have to , now Jackson does NOT have to, they cherry pick good players, but some areas just wouldn't field a team without doing so. Where TN, MS , and Arkansas meet up, some people drive through all 3 states everyday on a commute. Memphis is partially in Arkansas and MS too.

 

[Purestriker]

It might sound strange to recruit 3 states but on the one hand some cities or towns more aptly said in the south have to , now Jackson does NOT have to, they cherry pick good players, but some areas just wouldn't field a team without doing so. Where TN, MS , and Arkansas meet up, some people drive through all 3 states everyday on a commute. Memphis is partially in Arkansas and MS too.

If you want to have a shot at sectionals against GA and NC, you have to expand your recruiting area.

 

[Snarf]

Exactly, something I've said for years. To get three strikes, particularly at lower levels, you have to effectvely be playing closer to two levels above than at level. To me that is too high.

I'm guessing the system would have taken care of NB if his rating had not been managed. His one local league match was against a computer rated 3.5 where he gave up 3 games. The opponent was probably carefully chosen, but there's no way that score was legit. His dropped set at state tourney (against a team that had no chance against the eventual national champions) isn't quite as obvious even though he proceeded to drop 3 games over the next 3 sets against that same guy. Would he have generated 3 strikes at sectionals without those two scores anchoring his rating?

 

[Snarf]

They had a really good team with a lot of depth. Of course it helped not losing any singles lines. I would like to think most of that team will be bumped to 4.5 which will not disappoint the other local and state 4.0 teams

Of the 20 courts they won at nationals, 12 were from the two singles players, and SC went 5-1 in doubles. They were 3-9 on the other courts. They were a really good team even without the kids, but they were top heavy instead of deep from a nationals perspective imho. I think you might be disappointed by the bumps.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

I'd say it is likely. Does the USTA consider that "normal"? Or is that a red-flag that makes them consider how to fix it?

Maybe IM should file a grievance with USTA?

 

[travlerajm]

This was 4.0 nationals, not 4.5

Anyone know what the match rating strike threshold is?

 

[schmke]

Anyone know what the match rating strike threshold is?

Higher than it should be.

 

[Snarf]

Anyone know what the match rating strike threshold is?

4.25 or 4.30. I suspect the former. Either way, as schmke suggests, too high.

 

[travlerajm]

4.25 or 4.30. I suspect the former. Either way, as schmke suggests, too high.

So in other words, a 4.0 can potentially play at a 4.5 mid level all season long and be eligible for playoffs?

 

[MadisonTennis]

I ran into some of the guys from Jackson that won 3.0 nationals. They got in late today and assuming the 4.0 team should be back in the next few days. This 3.0 team was mainly guys in mid 30s that grew up playing tennis, quit when they got out of college, and started back the last few years. Most of them play about 5-6 days a week and they really have improved a lot. Out of curiosity I asked if they ran into any ringers and the overall feedback was all the competition was really even. A few of them did say that several teams had older players than they thought they would play but those opponents were very crafty and used the lob a lot (especially when they had to look into the sun). Be curious to see what the 4.0 team says when they get back. Jackson has had more than their fair share of national teams but I would think this may be the last 4.0 team for a while. They really recruited this year and they will have a difficult time finding more singles players at the level they had this year because junior tennis has gone down in recent years around the state.

 

[denoted]

Unrelated question: we have all met players who are delusional about their level, usually on the overestimation side. Now that video is ubiquitous, and everyone is familiar with how awful they actually look, are these delusions less prominent than previously? Another way of saying that is: how can delusions of grandeur survive the reality principle of video?

 

[travlerajm]

Unrelated question: we have all met players who are delusional about their level, usually on the overestimation side. Now that video is ubiquitous, and everyone is familiar with how awful they actually look, are these delusions less prominent than previously? Another way of saying that is: how can delusions of grandeur survive the reality principle of video?

Everyone sees what they want to see.

 

[ChaelAZ]

Unrelated question: we have all met players who are delusional about their level, usually on the overestimation side. Now that video is ubiquitous, and everyone is familiar with how awful they actually look, are these delusions less prominent than previously? Another way of saying that is: how can delusions of grandeur survive the reality principle of video?

Relating the question: With video being ubiquitous, and all of us seeing average players on YT and other shared videos, it does validate how out of range some players are in leagues. I've always said, Nationals is supposed to be the best of the best competing, but living a 15 minute walk from Surprise Tennis Center and having been to years of Nationals now, it is understandable the frustration the other way of having ringers put on teams, just as much as players who overrated themselves.

I've been on both sides of overrating and underrating myself, so just my observations.

 

[travlerajm]

The key to happy league tennis life is to learn to get excited whenever you get the privilege of facing a higher level player, and savor the winning when beating up on delusional self-rated scrubs.

 

[GrassCourtFan]

Unrelated question: we have all met players who are delusional about their level, usually on the overestimation side. Now that video is ubiquitous, and everyone is familiar with how awful they actually look, are these delusions less prominent than previously? Another way of saying that is: how can delusions of grandeur survive the reality principle of video?

They can also look at their opponents and see how bad they look and think "man, I could beat someone who plays like that". Video goes both ways.

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

Unrelated question: we have all met players who are delusional about their level, usually on the overestimation side. Now that video is ubiquitous, and everyone is familiar with how awful they actually look, are these delusions less prominent than previously? Another way of saying that is: how can delusions of grandeur survive the reality principle of video?

I would say less than 1% of usta players video themselves.

They can also look at their opponents and see how bad they look and think "man, I could beat someone who plays like that". Video goes both ways.

It seems in my experience to guarantee someone isn't .......viewing a video of rec tennis and miss-interpreting what is really happening...... someone has to be a life long player who played really high level to get the nuances, just to guarantee no miss-viewing, of course some astute observers break that generalization, but not many (mostly savvy singles guys or gals I guess).

Those who leaned as adults seem to chase shiny objects like monkeys, and those shiny objects are super fast flat serves, super hard paced shots, winners, grunting etc. If they don't see that on every point they think they can beat the players they are watching.

 

[Remioli]

Singles ringers indeed. Both played all six matches, both went 6-0, and by my calculations their average match rating for the tournament was 4.29.

The match rating can only go so high correct? If you beat a 4.0 and don't drop a game, It'd only go up to like 4.35.
This is an unavoidable problem with rating systems as far as I can tell. People say "they're really not sand bagging, their UTR is only 7.2" but it's impossible to get above a 7.2 when you only play 6's your whole life.

 

[TennisOTM]

The match rating can only go so high correct? If you beat a 4.0 and don't drop a game, It'd only go up to like 4.35.
This is an unavoidable problem with rating systems as far as I can tell. People say "they're really not sand bagging, their UTR is only 7.2" but it's impossible to get above a 7.2 when you only play 6's your whole life.

This is 4.0 Nationals, where many if not most players have jumped into the 4.5 level. Destroying opponents at Nationals is how some players have gotten double-bumped in the past.

 

[schmke]

The match rating can only go so high correct? If you beat a 4.0 and don't drop a game, It'd only go up to like 4.35.
This is an unavoidable problem with rating systems as far as I can tell. People say "they're really not sand bagging, their UTR is only 7.2" but it's impossible to get above a 7.2 when you only play 6's your whole life.

This is 4.0 Nationals, where many if not most players have jumped into the 4.5 level. Destroying opponents at Nationals is how some players have gotten double-bumped in the past.

Correct on both points. Regular season and even local/district playoffs there can be a cap on how high a rating can go simply due to the strength of opponent. This is part of the reason I say strike thresholds are too high. There are some players that don't deliberately tank and don't get strikes, but then when they go to Nationals and face stronger players and still win easily, their true(er) ability is demonstrated and they suddenly get higher match ratings. It is part of why ratings are said to be sticky to the level you play.

 

[denoted]

They can also look at their opponents and see how bad they look and think "man, I could beat someone who plays like that". Video goes both ways.

That is an excellent point. I even had a touch of that before I saw myself on video, I'm embarrassed to say.

 

[db27]

Even with Southern's strong singles players. SoCal had a real shot of winning all 3 doubles lines in their first match. The final score was 3-2 with (3) super tie-breaks.

Also, I didn't see anyone mention that there was NO-AD scoring on day 1 in addition to strong winds which seemed to make for a lot of close matches.

 

[J_R_B]

They lost both Singles. #1 Singles losing 2&0, which seems impossible.

#2 Singles won 6-1 first set, lost 4-6 second set and then retired (probably already had the 3 doubles wins).

The Middle States singles players are both younger guys (mid-late 20s) who played in high school for powerhouse HS teams, but they only played #3 or lower singles or doubles and then didn't play in college. There's nothing in the background of either one that sets off any glaring red flags. I played one of the guys in a 4.5 doubles match two years where we were both playing as 4.0s with a 4.5 partner (we won, although it was a close and fun match). He's a 4.0/4.5 tweener but definitely not someone who is clearly out of level (and definitely lower level than Rudy two years ago), so it seems like the Fowkes boys weren't embarrassingly out of level this year as they were with the Craig kids and Nathan Balls.

 

[schmke]

On the subject of post-Nationals DQ's, as of yesterday I'd only seen two, a 3.0A female promoted to 3.5, and a 5.0S female promoted to 5.5. But I'm not sure how quickly they all get done.

 

[NumbersGuy]

The match rating can only go so high correct? If you beat a 4.0 and don't drop a game, It'd only go up to like 4.35.
This is an unavoidable problem with rating systems as far as I can tell. People say "they're really not sand bagging, their UTR is only 7.2" but it's impossible to get above a 7.2 when you only play 6's your whole life.

They were clobbering guys who had ratings in the 4.10 range.

 

[Future]

Quite interesting I must say, I've watched the nationals event for 10+ years and have never seen such clobbering

 

[WambsgansRackets]

They were clobbering guys who had ratings in the 4.10 range.

How egregious do results have to be to justify a double bump?

 

[LuckyAC]

Blake Bath on the Norcal team is a fun one. Currently only 8.xx UTR because of the limited upside of winning even all of of your matches in doubles (20-2 latest, one loss in mixed nationals against 9.x, 9.x team). But he was a 10 UTR junior who reached the finals of his state championship, and he's only 26 years old,

 

[J_R_B]

Blake Bath on the Norcal team is a fun one. Currently only 8.xx UTR because of the limited upside of winning even all of of your matches in doubles (20-2 latest, one loss in mixed nationals against 9.x, 9.x team). But he was a 10 UTR junior who reached the finals of his state championship, and he's only 26 years old,

His record indicates that he clearly has not been manipulating his scores. He's been destroying everyone in 4.0 mens and 8.5 combo for 3 years but hasn't been bumped. This one looks like a computer anomaly, but if he isn't bumped this year, something is wrong.

 

[Tennishacker7]

Texas S2 player got scared and defaulted to Fowkes looks like

Wish is it was that simple . Player from the Texas team here. Our 8th player told us he couldn’t make it Friday morning. Only had 7, played IM with no singles players lost 1-4 with two doubles matches going to a tiebreaker. Next day they suspended our captain leaving us with 6. Still won both matches on day 2. Finished 9th (2-2).

 

[Tennishacker7]

Defaulted in other match too. Teams supposed to bring enough, USTA can't be happy.

They were not. Our captain got suspend for three months starting on day 2 leaving us with only 6. The story of what could’ve been had we had our singles players.

 

[Tennishacker7]

Adding to your point, Texas is missing their best player (not including the one that already got DQ'd). It makes a world of difference to get a free defaulted court versus having to play their elite singles guy. Definitely an advantage for the teams that get to play them and could easily help someone if tiebreakers come into play.

Considering they banned our captain on day 2 leaving us with 6 players and we were still able to finish 2-2 shows that the people in the bottom half deserved to be there.

 

[WambsgansRackets]

Wish is it was that simple . Player from the Texas team here. Our 8th player told us he couldn’t make it Friday morning. Only had 7, played IM with no singles players lost 1-4 with two doubles matches going to a tiebreaker. Next day they suspended our captain leaving us with 6. Still won both matches on day 2. Finished 9th (2-2).

Why did the Texas captain get suspended?

 

[schmke]

His record indicates that he clearly has not been manipulating his scores. He's been destroying everyone in 4.0 mens and 8.5 combo for 3 years but hasn't been bumped. This one looks like a computer anomaly, but if he isn't bumped this year, something is wrong.

I had him in line to be bumped up last year, close though.

 

[HyFive578]

Eastern inexplicably lost 5-0 to PNW so just four 4-0 teams. Eastern was upset on three of the courts.

IM only won 3-2 in their last match, and one of the court wins was in a match TB.

Eastern captain here... we were 3-0 going into the match with PNW and had only dropped two courts by that time. It was "inexplicable" to us too, but here's how it happened.

Our top singles player (and best player on our team) came into the tournament with a nagging back issue made worse by his match on Friday morning and despite a steady diet of Naproxen and beer, did not feel confident playing singles again the whole weekend. Our second best singles player (and undefeated) rolled his ankle Saturday morning in the second set against Florida, got it taped to get through the match and won the super but was now out of commission. Our 3rd best singles player was also dealing with a back issue and lost a tough match the night before. Our other possible singles players had all played very tough matches in the morning and were a bit spent. So we put our lowest guy in 1S just to get him a play figuring that was a throwaway, put our 3rd best singles guy in 2S whom we had confidence would win, kept our 2nd dubs team who were 3-0 where they were and split our two best players across 1D and 3D betting on a 3-2 result. On paper, should have worked. Never imagined we'd lose all 5. The lineup was a hodge-podge Plan B due to multiple injuries (and some other circumstances) against a team that we underestimated. Had we had our "Plan A" lineup, I am 100% confident, we would have beaten PNW. I don't think we would have made it to the finals, but we would have made it to Sunday. We had some seriously scrappy wins (our first match went to 5 super TB's!!!!) including two 3rd dubs matches where our guys were outgunned and fought back to upset their opponents.

 

[schmke]

Eastern captain here... we were 3-0 going into the match with PNW and had only dropped two courts by that time. It was "inexplicable" to us too, but here's how it happened.

Our top singles player (and best player on our team) came into the tournament with a nagging back issue made worse by his match on Friday morning and despite a steady diet of Naproxen and beer, did not feel confident playing singles again the whole weekend. Our second best singles player (and undefeated) rolled his ankle Saturday morning in the second set against Florida, got it taped to get through the match and won the super but was now out of commission. Our 3rd best singles player was also dealing with a back issue and lost a tough match the night before. Our other possible singles players had all played very tough matches in the morning and were a bit spent. So we put our lowest guy in 1S just to get him a play figuring that was a throwaway, put our 3rd best singles guy in 2S whom we had confidence would win, kept our 2nd dubs team who were 3-0 where they were and split our two best players across 1D and 3D betting on a 3-2 result. On paper, should have worked. Never imagined we'd lose all 5. The lineup was a hodge-podge Plan B due to multiple injuries (and some other circumstances) against a team that we underestimated. Had we had our "Plan A" lineup, I am 100% confident, we would have beaten PNW. I don't think we would have made it to the finals, but we would have made it to Sunday. We had some seriously scrappy wins (our first match went to 5 super TB's!!!!) including two 3rd dubs matches where our guys were outgunned and fought back to upset their opponents.

Injuries and fatigue are always the wildcard at Nationals. Appreciate the additional color on why it happened.

 

[Tennisradical6]

GM was computer rated this year. He had some … strange … results in local league in 2023. He mowed through folks at sectionals though. The rumor is that those matches didn’t count because they played short sets due to rain, and the captain suggested to a southen official that they be dropped for that reason. That sounds unlikely to me, but it was pretty surprising that GM stayed down. Have you ever heard of that happening schmke?

I heard this exact same reason being stated for GM staying a 4.0. However, there is another TN player who should absolutely not be a 4.0 but somehow the computer rated both of them 4.0C

 

[NumbersGuy]

Why did the Texas captain get suspended?

Suspended for not bringing a full squad. Yes it's a rule.

 

[HyFive578]

Injuries and fatigue are always the wildcard at Nationals. Appreciate the additional color on why it happened.

The fatigue wasn't too much of a factor, but the injuries were. With the top 2 singles guys not available, that really had a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. We were definitely punching above our weight up until that point. I saw your original prediction didn't even consider us, but up until the last match we were in a dead heat with IM (3-0 / 13-2), which I'm sure no one saw coming.

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

Wish is it was that simple . Player from the Texas team here. Our 8th player told us he couldn’t make it Friday morning. Only had 7, played IM with no singles players lost 1-4 with two doubles matches going to a tiebreaker. Next day they suspended our captain leaving us with 6. Still won both matches on day 2. Finished 9th (2-2).

Whoah, that's a little extreme, almost not fair to other teams who don't get the free win.

 

[unexpected]

Considering they banned our captain on day 2 leaving us with 6 players and we were still able to finish 2-2 shows that the people in the bottom half deserved to be there.

You guys screwed up by having such a small team to begin with. After sectionals, you were down to 9 guys total. Something always happens.