2024 18+ 4.0M Preview

Creighton

Professional
I ran into some of the guys from Jackson that won 3.0 nationals. They got in late today and assuming the 4.0 team should be back in the next few days. This 3.0 team was mainly guys in mid 30s that grew up playing tennis, quit when they got out of college, and started back the last few years. Most of them play about 5-6 days a week and they really have improved a lot. Out of curiosity I asked if they ran into any ringers and the overall feedback was all the competition was really even. A few of them did say that several teams had older players than they thought they would play but those opponents were very crafty and used the lob a lot (especially when they had to look into the sun). Be curious to see what the 4.0 team says when they get back. Jackson has had more than their fair share of national teams but I would think this may be the last 4.0 team for a while. They really recruited this year and they will have a difficult time finding more singles players at the level they had this year because junior tennis has gone down in recent years around the state.

Really shows what it takes to win nationals. If they played as kids and now play 5-6 days a week for a few years they're probably closer to 4.0 than 3.0
 
You guys screwed up by having such a small team to begin with. After sectionals, you were down to 9 guys total. Something always happens.
We come from a small town in Texas Panhandle with a population of 250,000 people. We barely had enough as is, and still got two wins on day two. 3-2 against New England and 4-1 against Mid Atlantic. We were forced to play two singles and two doubles matches with 6.
 

Snarf

New User
Did you find Any more DQs from last week?
NB supposedly got DQ’d dynamically. Same source alleges he also got bumped to 5.0, but he still shows 4.0 on tennislink. Tournament play was cited as the reason for the bump to 5.0; that combined with a review of the experienced player guidelines suggests he may have played a minor event and earned no points. I guess that question must not have come up during his self-rate process as he apparently was not banned and was also offered a route to appeal his 5.0 rating.
 

Creighton

Professional
NB supposedly got DQ’d dynamically. Same source alleges he also got bumped to 5.0, but he still shows 4.0 on tennislink. Tournament play was cited as the reason for the bump to 5.0; that combined with a review of the experienced player guidelines suggests he may have played a minor event and earned no points. I guess that question must not have come up during his self-rate process as he apparently was not banned and was also offered a route to appeal his 5.0 rating.

Ah looks like he had a different USTA account.
 

unexpected

New User
We come from a small town in Texas Panhandle with a population of 250,000 people. We barely had enough as is, and still got two wins on day two. 3-2 against New England and 4-1 against Mid Atlantic. We were forced to play two singles and two doubles matches with 6.
Sure, I mean I get that, but you guys had decent league season. None of those guys could have been backups on the team? For instance, WM, who plays out of Dallas (great dude, btw), his own brother was on a different team in Amarillo! Why couldn't he be on the team? Seems self-inflicted.
 

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
Several Nationals start on Friday, I posted a preview of a couple, here is the quick synopsis:

Chance of 4 undefeated: 4.6%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 94% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.08 / 3.82
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.00 / 3.94
Favorites: Intermountain, Middlewest, Missouri Valley, SoCal
Contenders: Middle States, NorCal, Pacific Northwest, Southern

Teams are listed alphabetically. Favorites have a 50+% chance of the semis, contenders are the group most likely behind them.

There often is a surprise that joins the teams I list, who might that be? Does someone outside my eight have a chance to win it all?

Edit: Found an error and corrected it which added Southern to the contenders
Are your projections based on which players registered for Nationals or does it include players who didn't register and aren't going?
 

schmke

Legend
Are your projections based on which players registered for Nationals or does it include players who didn't register and aren't going?
They are based on the line-ups played during playoffs. If players don't go, or captains elect to change who they play, e.g. get everyone a match or two at Nationals, that can be a reason the results are different than the projections.
 
I like how he ran out of the way before the opponent even started the racket take back. He knew it was gonna be out before he hit it!
I watched it just now again to see his shuffle step lol, and noticed, I think that cheater decided to call it out once he saw the guy was going to hit an overhead on the next shot for an easy put away, he waited to see that, then said, hell naw, I'm gonna call that baseline shot out.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
NB supposedly got DQ’d dynamically. Same source alleges he also got bumped to 5.0, but he still shows 4.0 on tennislink. Tournament play was cited as the reason for the bump to 5.0; that combined with a review of the experienced player guidelines suggests he may have played a minor event and earned no points. I guess that question must not have come up during his self-rate process as he apparently was not banned and was also offered a route to appeal his 5.0 rating.
His tournament profile is 5.0 T 12/31/2021, so that rating is about to expire. He got that from junior tournaments, which is a little weird, but whatever. There's nothing I see in his background that would prevent him from rating 4.0. He didn't play in college and his highest junior rank was around 50 in Southern, which also doesn't trip any of the rating criteria. His USTA rating is 4.5 D, which just indicates a normal 3-strike DQ to 4.5.

There are a ton of red flags that all indicate that he's never likely to have been a 4.0 caliber player, however, even if they don't hit the self-rating criteria at all. While "Top 20" is the trigger for 5.0 in junior 18s sectional ranking, a ranking of 50 in Southern is far different that a ranking of 50 in most other sections outside of FL or CA. UTR isn't a part of the self-rating, but his UTR is expired (with no results since 2021) and listed as "7.xx-9.xx", which is clearly above the 4.0 level, which should have a hard ceiling at 7.00. He has wins over guys whose current UTR is 10.xx, which is at least a high level 5.0, although I assume those are kids who play or played in college, so they would be significantly better now than in 2021 as a junior. He was a 2-star recruit on TennisRecruiting, which is typically way above 4.0 level. 1-star is typically on the 4.0/4.5 line and often more on the 4.5 side of it. 2-star is at least high-4.5 and often 5.0.
 
His tournament profile is 5.0 T 12/31/2021, so that rating is about to expire. He got that from junior tournaments, which is a little weird, but whatever. There's nothing I see in his background that would prevent him from rating 4.0. He didn't play in college and his highest junior rank was around 50 in Southern, which also doesn't trip any of the rating criteria. His USTA rating is 4.5 D, which just indicates a normal 3-strike DQ to 4.5.

There are a ton of red flags that all indicate that he's never likely to have been a 4.0 caliber player, however, even if they don't hit the self-rating criteria at all. While "Top 20" is the trigger for 5.0 in junior 18s sectional ranking, a ranking of 50 in Southern is far different that a ranking of 50 in most other sections outside of FL or CA. UTR isn't a part of the self-rating, but his UTR is expired (with no results since 2021) and listed as "7.xx-9.xx", which is clearly above the 4.0 level, which should have a hard ceiling at 7.00. He has wins over guys whose current UTR is 10.xx, which is at least a high level 5.0, although I assume those are kids who play or played in college, so they would be significantly better now than in 2021 as a junior. He was a 2-star recruit on TennisRecruiting, which is typically way above 4.0 level. 1-star is typically on the 4.0/4.5 line and often more on the 4.5 side of it. 2-star is at least high-4.5 and often 5.0.
This player is a 5.0 now for all the different ways to look someone up. The message is pretty clear: You better be able to get 5.0 players in your 18+ 4.0 Nationals lineup if you want to compete against these "sneaky" teams.
 

Creighton

Professional
love the MS player who won 3 matches 0,0 and one 2,0 at Nationals only gets bumped to 4.5 from 4.0. No wonder so many are quitting league with garbage ratings like this

It's the problem with letting people self rate too low. The system just can't accurately project them.
 

Purestriker

Legend
I'd put my money on him winning every match he plays this weekend. He's a stud. Guess we will wait and see.
I am not good enough to be on the 7.5 team from Arky. But those are all my 3.5's (and a few formers that got bumped) and I told them to buckle up! I can't wait to get their feedback on Saturday.
 

UtahPack

New User
I am not good enough to be on the 7.5 team from Arky. But those are all my 3.5's (and a few formers that got bumped) and I told them to buckle up! I can't wait to get their feedback on Saturday.
The 7.5 team from MS at 18+ is NASTY WORK. They've got a ton of guys that self rated prior to signing for JUCO programs so they were able to kind of operate in the grey area. They've got one court that's unbeatable haha. Good luck! Ryland Buford is the guy that's absolutely insane at 4.0
 

Purestriker

Legend
The 7.5 team from MS at 18+ is NASTY WORK. They've got a ton of guys that self rated prior to signing for JUCO programs so they were able to kind of operate in the grey area. They've got one court that's unbeatable haha. Good luck! Ryland Buford is the guy that's absolutely insane at 4.0
o_O:laughing::laughing::laughing::laughing::laughing:

Awesome!
 
The 7.5 team from MS at 18+ is NASTY WORK. They've got a ton of guys that self rated prior to signing for JUCO programs so they were able to kind of operate in the grey area. They've got one court that's unbeatable haha. Good luck! Ryland Buford is the guy that's absolutely insane at 4.0
An 18 year old UTR 9 100% playing Open tourneys is dabbling in mixed 7.5 as a 4.0 lol. Then again MS is kind of not much to do anyway type area.
 
Yeah the MS vs. SoCal matchup this year at nationals was fun.
I'm sure it was, but what I kind of meant was in places like southern California and Florida, Dallas, Atlanta, etc, there are so many great players that don't play/bother with usta or mess with self rating and hunting trophies , there would be more peer pressure or just great players at the tennis courts to make you realize how silly it is to do this as a UTR 9 18 year old. In Mississippi, meh, not a big social peer group or tennis group to really make fun of you or just destroy delusions of greatness.
 

UtahPack

New User
I'm sure it was, but what I kind of meant was in places like southern California and Florida, Dallas, Atlanta, etc, there are so many great players that don't play/bother with usta or mess with self rating and hunting trophies , there would be more peer pressure or just great players at the tennis courts to make you realize how silly it is to do this as a UTR 9 18 year old. In Mississippi, meh, not a big social peer group or tennis group to really make fun of you or just destroy delusions of greatness.
Nah, everyone has been absolutely flame roasting Ryland Buford. He's only played combo and i think a hint of mixed so he's laid low for the most part. This is his last year being able to exploit the self rate prior to committing to a juco program. So from here on out he'd be eligible for a grievance once he re self rates. MS is home to a lot of great tennis players. The 3.0s also won nationals this year. The 4.0 MS team that won wasn't littered with self rates. I do think the 3.0 team was, but I'd have to go back and verify. On one hand I see your peer pressure point on the other hand... there's a much larger selection of really good players to pick from in those larger areas. I do believe it may be harder to fudge on self rate questionnaires because people are more competitive and will try to find information to get people DQ'd. Researching UTRs for the 4.0 finals they all seemed kind of on par correct or did anything stick out to you?
 
Nah, everyone has been absolutely flame roasting Ryland Buford. He's only played combo and i think a hint of mixed so he's laid low for the most part. This is his last year being able to exploit the self rate prior to committing to a juco program. So from here on out he'd be eligible for a grievance once he re self rates. MS is home to a lot of great tennis players. The 3.0s also won nationals this year. The 4.0 MS team that won wasn't littered with self rates. I do think the 3.0 team was, but I'd have to go back and verify. On one hand I see your peer pressure point on the other hand... there's a much larger selection of really good players to pick from in those larger areas. I do believe it may be harder to fudge on self rate questionnaires because people are more competitive and will try to find information to get people DQ'd. Researching UTRs for the 4.0 finals they all seemed kind of on par correct or did anything stick out to you?
That's good to hear, the local players roast him or just other areas? I've been around that area a bit around covid and after, I just kind of meant , hard to explain, that there is more likely going to be a bored 18 year old do something like this there than in a big city where they are busy doing normal 18 year old stuff like going to an actual college etc. Playing Juco tennis to move on or playing open tourneys every month because they are available, just no time to mess around in out of level combo or even a temptation. Some more kids juco level not NCAA good did this from TN and MS past few years at sectionals, just small town kids who have nothing better to do. And yes, I consider any city in MS or TN not Nashville/Memphis pretty small town compared to the tennis areas I grew up in like Dallas and Houston.

We would laugh at an adult who tried to get us to play usta at age 18 from the Dallas tennis scene, just wouldn't have time for that nonsense.

I have not looked at any UTRs, just enjoy these little stories.
 

Purestriker

Legend
Arkansas A team vs. NC in the finals for 18 7.5 sectionals. Mississippi kid was as advertised, but he couldn’t play all the lines. He was wearing his college team gear at a few of his matches. :-D
 
Southern Combo Sectionals remains one of the most fun events. Every player on every line is at least at the very top of their level. Hell, most have already been bumped up anyways. For the most part, everybody is overly friendly and it's usually pretty drama-free in my experience. Great energy at the Mobile Tennis Center with approx. 1500 players at the facility.
 

Creighton

Professional
Southern Combo Sectionals remains one of the most fun events. Every player on every line is at least at the very top of their level. Hell, most have already been bumped up anyways. For the most part, everybody is overly friendly and it's usually pretty drama-free in my experience. Great energy at the Mobile Tennis Center with approx. 1500 players at the facility.

Which level did you play?
 
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