2024 ATP Finals Turin RR: [2] Zverev vs [3] Alcaraz

[Winner Sinner]

The most awaited and noble match of this entire group stage of this edition of the ATP Finals.
The organizers surprisingly put it in the program before the Ruud-Rublev match, therefore outside of prime time, motivation?
I suppose to ensure that it is a match without conditions derived from the outcome of the match between Ruud and Rublev.

However, Zverev only needs to win one set to have the mathematical certainty of finishing first in the group and avoiding the Sinner bogeyman in the semifinals.
While as far as Alcaraz is concerned, there are few frills, he is not in a comfortable ranking situation and for this reason he doesn't have to make calculations but limit himself to showing off his best tennis for as long as possible.

This Zverev, who combines an illegal serve with an increasingly solid forehand, is scary, but if there is a player who can shake things up in a single match for better or for worse, it is the Murcian tennis player.
I expect a great match.

 

[Carax]

Zverev is no Ruballs. Zverev in 2.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Zverev in 3, just like last year. Although, the scoreline wouldn't be as tight as that one imo, and could easily be a straight setter if Zverev's serve is redlining beyond a certain threshold.
My prediction - Zverev wins 63 46 62

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

@Winner Sinner please set the poll to close at around 11 hours from now.
GMT - 13:00 or 1:00 pm.

 

[Winner Sinner]

The situation
The situation in Group B of the ATP Finals is becoming increasingly complicated. With the last day upon us, let's analyze all the possible scenarios for Carlos Alcaraz's qualification for the semi-finals.

The Rublev-Ruud factor
The key will be the match between Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud. For Alcaraz, the simplest path passes through a victory for the Russian, who leads 5-2 in the direct clashes with the Norwegian. In this scenario, the Spaniard would only depend on himself:
– With a victory over Zverev, regardless of whether in two or three sets, he would qualify as first in the group

The complicated scenario
The situation becomes considerably more complicated in the event of Ruud's victory over Rublev. In this case:
– Alcaraz would have to beat Zverev to create three two-win players
– The tie-breaking criterion would be the number of sets won first, then the games
– If Ruud wins in straight sets, Alcaraz should:
– Win in straight sets against Zverev
– Do it by a wide margin in games (very unlikely scenario)
– If Ruud wins in three sets:
– Alcaraz would have to win in straight sets to qualify
– A victory in three sets would force him to count the games, an unfavorable situation since he is at a disadvantage compared to the Norwegian

 

[albertobra]

Something is telling me that Carlitos will show up. The big danger for Zverev, and it wouldn't be anything new, is that Zedbot leaves the scene and gets in Zedrot.

 

[Pheasant]

This is a huge match and I can’t wait to watch this one. Which version of Alcaraz will show up today? I hope that the best version will show up.

I’d love a Sinneraz final. If we don’t get that, then I’d like a Sinnerev final.

 

[Spin Diesel]

Somehow I feel like it's going to be a two set victory for Zverev. Something like 6-4 7-6.
Even if Alcaraz is close to his best, Zverev is a tough matchup for him. Even moreso on fast hard courts. And Alcaraz didn't look close to his best here yet, while Zverev does, I'd say.

 

[Bride of Alcaraz]

I want an Alcarinner Semi-Final!

Isn't it more realistic to have a Sincaraz final?

If Alcaraz finishes 2nd in his pool won't his semi-final be vs. the top seed of the other pool?!

 

[Spin Diesel]

I'm wondering if Zverev isn't actually looking more forward to playing Sinner than Fritz. Fritz beat him 3/4 times this year, while the german's H2H against Sinner is in his favour and he only lost one close match in 2024.
What's actually interesting is that Sinner and Zverev only played once every year back to 2020.

 

[Spin Diesel]

I want an Alcarinner Semi-Final!

Isn't it more realistic to have a Sincaraz final?

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

I think Zverev takes this one in 3. The conditions suit him more

 

[nolefam_2024]

They are evenly matched

https://twitter.com/x/status/1857375208614584677

 

[Drighiz]

Raz is on

 

[Spin Diesel]

Early breakpoints fended off well - strong hold!

 

[Hitman]

This is already good.

 

[edberg volleys]

Cmon Z!

 

[mehdimike]

This is already good.

How come?! It's been full of UFs

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Alcaraz saves a 4th break point.

Zverev already getting angry, unsurprising given his history.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Stunning hold by Alcaraz there. Those droppers worked wonders that game.

Hope he can apply some pressure this game now!

 

[Racquet_smash]

What a waste from Zverev

 

[ultimathule]

Alcaraz hanging on on his serve

 

[Spin Diesel]

Alcaraz quite hot and cold but so far able to play great when it mattered most.

 

[Racquet_smash]

Zverev is letting Alcaraz in lol what are those decisions

 

[Aussie Darcy]

These returns are so brutal by Alcaraz. He's messing with Zverev who looks like a clown hitting shots into the net while Alcaraz is running all over the court catching these balls!

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Alcaraz hanging on on his serve

Same with Zverev in that game!

 

[nolefam_2024]

Same with Zverev in that game!

Can you once in your life stop the agenda.

Zverev has faced 0 break points
Raz 6.

At least be honest and stop changing narrative.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

However, Zverev only needs to win one set to have the mathematical certainty of finishing first in the group and avoiding the Sinner bogeyman in the semifinals.

Is that true? If Alcaraz wins in three but Rublev beats Ruud, surely Alcaraz wins the group.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Can you once in your life stop the agenda.

Zverev has faced 0 break points
Raz 6.

At least be honest and stop changing narrative.

Saving 6 break points is so damn impressive. How embarrassing to not convert one of them.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Zverev belts what was an easy return second serve winner into the net. Should be double break points, instead it's 30-30.

 

[Spin Diesel]

Can you once in your life stop the agenda.

Zverev has faced 0 break points
Raz 6.

At least be honest and stop changing narrative.

Please just ignore him as well. It's really relaxed that way, except if someone still responds.

 

[Hitman]

How come?! It's been full of UFs

They are trying to force the issue, both know what is on the line.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Alcaraz might have the most insane second serve out there right now. I keep fearing it'll be a double fault or eaten up by Zverev and instead Sascha is bashing the balls long, completely missing the ball or hitting it wide. Carlos just so good on this second serve.

Holds for 4-4. Not much separating these two.

 

[nolefam_2024]

They are trying to force the issue, both know what is on the line.

It isn't even that many ue.

Ue shouldn't define quality at all. Just neutral ue. Offensive ue should be allowed.

 

[Spin Diesel]

Finally an easier service hold for Alcaraz

 

[Racquet_smash]

Lol Zverev trowing the set away. He better wake up.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Zverev is going for low 140s now.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Great pickup

 

[nolefam_2024]

Total clutch by zverev to have that net pt. He has still not faced bp and along with adm alcaraz is best returner this year.

 

[Racquet_smash]

Super lucky there

 

[nolefam_2024]

Super lucky there

He had forward momentum that carried the ball.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Zverev fh quality which was 9.4 vs ruud has become just 6.9
Tour average is 7.5


Three routine fh cc errors in last game.

 

[nolefam_2024]

What kind of misses are these. Zverev is unravelling.

10 fh errors to raz just 5

 

[mehdimike]

Such a subpar match so far! Listless and uneventful.

 

[Hitman]

I guess it is about who will play Sinner and who will avoid him.

 

[edberg volleys]

Komm jetzt Z!

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Such a subpar match so far! Listless and uneventful.

I'm falling asleep watching it. Some nice flashy points but some terrible unforced errors by both players and then relying on their serve.

Maybe Zverev can break here? Otherwise tiebreak time. Will be interesting to see how that goes I guess. Then i'm bailing.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I guess it is about who will play Sinner and who will avoid him.

No. It's about topping the group. Gaining extra points.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Zed doing a good job in this match on his serve. As long as he wins one more game in the rest of this match, I think he's guaranteed his games won ratio to be better than Alcaraz, and thus to be in the semis no matter what.

I'm sure he'd rather win though and be sure to top the group.

On Alcaraz's side, he might not mind too much winning this match but getting knocked out and able to get ready for the DC with Nadal.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Zed doing a good job in this match on his serve. As long as he wins one more game in the rest of this match, I think he's guaranteed his games won ratio to be better than Alcaraz, and thus to be in the semis no matter what.

I'm sure he'd rather win though and be sure to top the group.

On Alcaraz's side, he might not mind too much winning this match but getting knocked out and able to get ready for the DC with Nadal.

I want him to win and ruud win. Raz can get eliminated completely. Let's not pencil him in.