2024 Miami Open ATP Master's 1000 SF - [3] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) v/s [2] Jannik Sinner (ITA)

Win prediction


  • Total voters
    47
  • Poll closed .

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Eubanks says, "HELLO!"


Yes, I really don't understand what happened to his serve. It used to be pretty dangerous, and good for at least a few aces in big spots. Now, nothing like that...


True. And while I think Sinner's improvement is a big factor, we have to be honest and say Medvedev has been really bad.
Guy has no confidence now. Nadal ripped it away from him and since then others have done it too.
 

guga_fan

Professional
Yeah , and Sinner hits harder like Berdych, moves better than him so if Murray didn't have weapon to punish Fed in slams doesn't mean Sinner won't have.
It is a specific matchup problem, as I said.

Berdych can generate pace better than Sinner of the forehand out of no pace balls and has better serve and serve+1. He also hits flatter and with absurd depth and returns Federer’s serve particularly well for some reason.

You can’t just transfer this matchup to Sinner’s case because they are not actually similar.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
No people say Murray is greater right as of now which he is. Not that Sinner can't be greater I think it is agreed Sinner will pass Murray eventually.
It should be clear more than ever that numbers should be properly evaluated based on context as lots of players will most likely end up more accomplished than Murray in the future.
 

dking68

Legend
No people say Murray is greater right as of now which he is. Not that Sinner can't be greater I think it is agreed Sinner will pass Murray eventually by most at this point.
He could pass him by the end of this year, tbh
 

guga_fan

Professional
Medvedev simply forgot how much he can trouble Sinner with his regular game and decided he had to play like Federer. It did work in Australia, but it did seem like something he would not be able to replicate.

Even when Sinner was playing well and beating at the end of last year, Med was making the matches tight with his usual gamestyle. Today he tried something that was clearly beyond his abilities, very strange decision too keep that up for the whole match. Did Simon have some say in this, perhaps?
 

sortof

Professional
For me an admittedly pretty unexpected outcome. Sinner in straights wasn´t that unlikely but this level of dominance over Med on a surface Med really likes - frightening! Sinner´s has improved virtually all aspects of his game since the two met in Miami last year. E.g. his backhand consistency is absolutely top level by now and at least today clearly superior to Med´s. Med has some work to do if he wants stay in the top 5.
 
Medvedev simply forgot how much he can trouble Sinner with his regular game and decided he had to play like Federer. It did work in Australia, but it did seem like something he would not be able to replicate.

Even when Sinner was playing well and beating at the end of last year, Med was making the matches tight with his usual gamestyle. Today he tried something that was clearly beyond his abilities, very strange decision too keep that up for the whole match. Did Simon have some say in this, perhaps?
This was the worst court for Medvedev's game and the best for Sinner's, there is no chance he would have done better playing a waiting game. Plus he got beaten hard on the serve+return complex
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Medvedev simply forgot how much he can trouble Sinner with his regular game and decided he had to play like Federer. It did work in Australia, but it did seem like something he would not be able to replicate.

Even when Sinner was playing well and beating at the end of last year, Med was making the matches tight with his usual gamestyle. Today he tried something that was clearly beyond his abilities, very strange decision too keep that up for the whole match. Did Simon have some say in this, perhaps?
I mean, I can't blame him. If you lose 4 times in a row then it simply means that you have to change something.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
For me an admittedly pretty unexpected outcome. Sinner in straights wasn´t that unlikely but this level of dominance over Med on a surface Med really likes - frightening! Sinner´s has improved virtually all aspects of his game since the two met in Miami last year. E.g. his backhand consistency is absolutely top level by now and at least today clearly superior to Med´s. Med has some work to do if he wants stay in the top 5.
Med can still remain in the top 5 by being consistent. But he seems to have traded a higher level for this consistency because he seems to be the underdog against every top player he plays.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Sinner served quite well. Dropping 7 aces on Medvedev in only 8 service games is incredible.

return points won:
Sinner 26
Medvedev 13
Sinner's been doing that all tournament – I think the only match where didn't win at least double the amount of return points as his opponent was his opener. Dominance ratio through the roof. He didn't look especially scintillating before today, but he's been insanely efficient. Hard to see either of the other semifinalists bothering him much on Sunday.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
This was the worst court for Medvedev's game and the best for Sinner's, there is no chance he would have done better playing a waiting game. Plus he got beaten hard on the serve+return complex
I think the worst court is still IW.

The old Miami would have joined the fray, but the parking lot court plays more to his liking.
 

guga_fan

Professional
I mean, I can't blame him. If you lose 4 times in a row then it simply means that you have to change something.
Yeah, maybe he thought something like that. Still, some of the other losses could have gone differently and he could try testing Sinner’s endurance after Indian Wells. From the first set he should have noticed that playing that kind of game in this court was not very good for him.

Still, he really has to fix the serve to have a chance. The biggest difference in the matchup is that Sinner’s serve got better and Med’s got incredibly worse.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Sinner's been doing that all tournament – I think the only match where didn't win at least double the amount of return points as his opponent was his opener. Dominance ratio through the roof. He didn't look especially scintillating before today, but he's been insanely efficient. Hard to see either of the other semifinalists bothering him much on Sunday.
Since he hasn't beaten Zverev in almost 4 years, it's time for that to change.

Unless Dimi pulls a miracle, which I won't mind.
 

neytron

Semi-Pro
Medvedev simply forgot how much he can trouble Sinner with his regular game and decided he had to play like Federer. It did work in Australia, but it did seem like something he would not be able to replicate.

Even when Sinner was playing well and beating at the end of last year, Med was making the matches tight with his usual gamestyle. Today he tried something that was clearly beyond his abilities, very strange decision too keep that up for the whole match. Did Simon have some say in this, perhaps?
Yes, he clearly should have received in his usual position. Sinner is not Alcaraz. He just needed to start aggressively with the second shot after receive. But that would only make the match a little more competitive. The main problem is that he only won 53% of his first serves.
 

Phenomenal

Hall of Fame
I just watched little oh, how the conditions affect it's crazy how different they are. Look how fast the court becomes when it played on day conditions. If the court is like miami or AO kind of medium not slow court.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Yeah, maybe he thought something like that. Still, some of the other losses could have gone differently and he could try testing Sinner’s endurance after Indian Wells. From the first set he should have noticed that playing that kind of game in this court was not very good for him.

Still, he really has to fix the serve to have a chance. The biggest difference in the matchup is that Sinner’s serve got better and Med’s got incredibly worse.
It's not gonna get prettier once Med drops a step. He's 28 so it's only a matter of time.
 

Phenomenal

Hall of Fame
Didn’t Djokovic win the sunshine double like 4 times or something?
I was joking there. I believe Sinner will be better player than Djokovic on day conditions. But obviously Djokovic is better and have many other plusses.

Sinner needs to win 10+ HC slam to be in conversation with Djokovic. But to his plus he is more powerfull specially compared to later versions of 2011 Novak and i think he is better at day and doesn't struggle like Djokovic.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
Since he hasn't beaten Zverev in almost 4 years, it's time for that to change.

Unless Dimi pulls a miracle, which I won't mind.
I wouldn't mind seeing Dimi somehow steal the trophy either, but that feels like a total pipe dream.

Didn't realize Sinner hadn't beaten Zverev since 2020. :oops: I don't think it means much, though, because he's a completely different player now. The last time he played Zverev he was also down 0-6 against Medvedev and now he's 5-6. (0-3 against Djokovic, now 3-4 – and I'm sure there are more.)
 
What exactly has Jannik done to turn around the Med match-up?
Firstly, he beat him once. Impossible to overstate how huge the mental component is in this game. Most matches are half-won and half-lost before the first point is even played. This one certainly was.

Then, he turned 22 and started inching towards his prime (for reference, at that age Medvedev was number 60).
 

Phenomenal

Hall of Fame
Lastly Sinner is not going to win 10 AO like Djokovic most likely but have a good chance to become better player than him at USO.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
I wouldn't mind seeing Dimi somehow steal the trophy either, but that feels like a total pipe dream.

Didn't realize Sinner hadn't beaten Zverev since 2020. :oops: I don't think it means much, though, because he's a completely different player now. The last time he played Zverev he was also down 0-6 against Medvedev and now he's 5-6. (0-3 against Djokovic, now 3-4 – and I'm sure there are more.)
I guess I could settle for just Grigor sending Zed to his trial earlier.
 

Phenomenal

Hall of Fame
It's interesting when you see Sinner has some similiarities but also little differences about prefering conditions. Alcaraz looks like Nadal, but he has potential to be the better player than Nadal on slower HC.
But way worse on clay so far. Will see how they evolve.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Firstly, he beat him once. Impossible to overstate how huge the mental component is in this game. Most matches are half-won and half-lost before the first point is even played. This one certainly was.

Then, he turned 22 and started inching towards his prime (for reference, at that age Medvedev was number 60).
True, but I mean from a tactical or technical standpoint.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
I was joking there. I believe Sinner will be better player than Djokovic on day conditions. But obviously Djokovic is better and have many other plusses.

Sinner needs to win 10+ HC slam to be in conversation with Djokovic. But to his plus he is more powerfull specially compared to later versions of 2011 Novak and i think he is better at day and doesn't struggle like Djokovic.
Sinner is more powerful because all players today are more powerful. Even Djokovic today has beefed up his forehand. Medvedev has beefed up his game. It happens.

Djokovic was never having this much power as Sinner easily but he was still very powerful.
 
Firstly, he beat him once. Impossible to overstate how huge the mental component is in this game. Most matches are half-won and half-lost before the first point is even played. This one certainly was.

Then, he turned 22 and started inching towards his prime (for reference, at that age Medvedev was number 60).
And to be fair, he's kinda turned around ALL the historically unfavorable matchups (Tsits, Djoko, Rune). The only one missing, ironically, is Big Z, who may well be the final boss on Sunday...
 

Phenomenal

Hall of Fame
That would mean approaching Fed/Connors/Pete numbers there. Highly unlikely.
It all depend on your competition and also abut how much strong he is. Tbh it's early but i don't believe Alcaraz or Sinner to reach 20 slams. But in their best conditions they can be one of the best.
It's long way and you need to be consistent healthy etc.
 

dking68

Legend
Sinner is more powerful because all players today are more powerful. Even Djokovic today has beefed up his forehand. Medvedev has beefed up his game. It happens.

Djokovic was never having this much power as Sinner easily but he was still very powerful.
Sinner is really powerful. He just has everything to be an ATG

Even if Murray was playing in a non big three era he didn’t have the power to dominate. Sinner does.
 
Top