2025 AO Women's final. Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys

[albertobra]

H2H 1-4 for Aryna.
Sabalenka for third AO title and fourth GS title.
Keys in her first AO final and second GS final.
Let's enjoy!

 

[albertobra]

I believe it's gonna be closer that what many would think.
Saba in 3 my take. But really hope for the 1st Maddy title.

 

[nolefam_2024]

If it was swiatek, I would have watched.

 

[TennisXpert@2023]

If it was swiatek, I would have watched.

If Djokovic loses, I will DEFINITELY watch.

 

[nolefam_2024]

If Djokovic loses, I will DEFINITELY watch.

That is your prerogative.

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

Here's hoping Sabelenka wins her third consecutive Australian Open title. Keys is a fine player and obviously dangerous (as Swiatek discovered as the exit door hit her on the way out of the AO), so Sabalenka needs to clear the occasional lapses in concentration she suffers from, as seen in some of her matches at this event.

That said, this should be a grand final.

 

[placebo]

Brisbane champion vs. Adelaide champion.

Never in history has the winner of Brisbane also won AO. Can Sabalenka break the curse and do a three-peat? Or will the historic trend continue and have Madison come through with her first ever slam title?

 

[Dominic & Andrey]

Rooting for Keys but I expect Saba to prevail, possibly in straights. Aryna will play and serve way better than Swiatek IMO.

 

[Aabye5]

H2H 1-4 for Aryna.
Sabalenka for third AO title and fourth GS title.
Keys in her first AO final and second GS final.
Let's enjoy!

Wow, this is fun. One surprise finalist up against the defending champ. Maddie making a comeback after her recent wedding, Aryna going for title number three in Melbourne. In her first final, Maddie was the up-and-comer expected to do great things, now she's the veteran trying to cement her legacy. Aryna is the younger player, but the established champion. Hope the match lives up to its potential.

 

[Pheasant]

Tale of the tape(2024 stats on hard courts):

Sabalenka
2 slam titles
2 Masters titles
40-9, .816 record overall
9-3, .750 record vs top-10

Keys
missed AO, R3 exit at the USO
7-6, .538 overall
0-2, .000 vs top-10

hard court HTH throughout their careers:
Sabalenka beat Keys 6-4 6-3 at 2024 Bejing R16
Sabalenka beat Keys 0-6, 7-6, 7-6 at 2023 USO semis
Sabalenka beat Keys 6-3 6-4 at 2018 Cinci QF

The U.S. crowd appeared to rattle Sabalenka at the semi. But Sabalenka prevailed; mainly due to Maddy choking even more. Sabalenka then laid an egg in the final vs Coco. I watched both matches. Keys has a puncher's chance. She hits harder than anybody that I've ever seen. But she's insanely inconsistent. She reminds me of Marat Safin. Key's career winning pct is .625 and Safin's career winning pct is .613. But the reality is that Keys vs Sabalenka is kind of like having Safin going against Federer. Fed won that HTH 10-2. I believe that Keys and Sabalenka will have a similar HTH through 12 matches.

I'm taking Sabalenka in 3 sets. I think that Maddy can steal a set. So far, she's beaten Rybakina, Svitolina, and Swiatek. But Sabalenka is the queen of hard courts. This would be a big upset.

 

[roysid]

I have a gut feeling that keys wins this

 

[Purestriker]

Tale of the tape(2024 stats on hard courts):

Sabalenka
2 slam titles
2 Masters titles
40-9, .816 record overall
9-3, .750 record vs top-10

Keys
missed AO, R3 exit at the USO
7-6, .538 overall
0-2, .000 vs top-10

hard court HTH throughout their careers:
Sabalenka beat Keys 6-4 6-3 at 2024 Bejing R16
Sabalenka beat Keys 0-6, 7-6, 7-6 at 2023 USO semis
Sabalenka beat Keys 6-3 6-4 at 2018 Cinci QF

The U.S. crowd appeared to rattle Sabalenka at the semi. But Sabalenka prevailed; mainly due to Maddy choking even more. Sabalenka then laid an egg in the final vs Coco. I watched both matches. Keys has a puncher's chance. She hits harder than anybody that I've ever seen. But she's insanely inconsistent. She reminds me of Marat Safin. Key's career winning pct is .625 and Safin's career winning pct is .613. But the reality is that Keys vs Sabalenka is kind of like having Safin going against Federer. Fed won that HTH 10-2. I believe that Keys and Sabalenka will have a similar HTH through 12 matches.

I'm taking Sabalenka in 3 sets. I think that Maddy can steal a set. So far, she's beaten Rybakina, Svitolina, and Swiatek. But Sabalenka is the queen of hard courts. This would be a big upset.

Shouldn't keys now be 1-3 vs. Top 10 on a hard court? Iga is in the top 10.

 

[placebo]

Madison will be holding the trophy on Saturday.

 

[Pheasant]

Shouldn't keys now be 1-3 vs. Top 10 on a hard court? Iga is in the top 10.

I just ran 2024's numbers. But to your point, I should have run the numbers through today to provide a better picture.

 

[Winners or Errors]

Keys has the firepower to win. Will she choke, or get rid of the label? It's worth watching for me, as she is one of my favorite WTA players - I like the mentally fragile ones. ;-)

 

[bw114]

Rooting for my beloved Aryna (coolest player on either tour) but seeing Keys win a slam wouldn't be the end of the world. Could see Ayrna dropping a set but think she wins this one.

 

[vokazu]

Omg Maddy! Lindsay Davenport must be so proud of you right now!

Congrats to the newlyweds

 

[insideguy]

Tale of the tape(2024 stats on hard courts):

Sabalenka
2 slam titles
2 Masters titles
40-9, .816 record overall
9-3, .750 record vs top-10

Keys
missed AO, R3 exit at the USO
7-6, .538 overall
0-2, .000 vs top-10

hard court HTH throughout their careers:
Sabalenka beat Keys 6-4 6-3 at 2024 Bejing R16
Sabalenka beat Keys 0-6, 7-6, 7-6 at 2023 USO semis
Sabalenka beat Keys 6-3 6-4 at 2018 Cinci QF

The U.S. crowd appeared to rattle Sabalenka at the semi. But Sabalenka prevailed; mainly due to Maddy choking even more. Sabalenka then laid an egg in the final vs Coco. I watched both matches. Keys has a puncher's chance. She hits harder than anybody that I've ever seen. But she's insanely inconsistent. She reminds me of Marat Safin. Key's career winning pct is .625 and Safin's career winning pct is .613. But the reality is that Keys vs Sabalenka is kind of like having Safin going against Federer. Fed won that HTH 10-2. I believe that Keys and Sabalenka will have a similar HTH through 12 matches.

I'm taking Sabalenka in 3 sets. I think that Maddy can steal a set. So far, she's beaten Rybakina, Svitolina, and Swiatek. But Sabalenka is the queen of hard courts. This would be a big upset.

Interesting. You have seen both live and Keys hits harder than Sabs? I knew she hits hard sometimes its deceptive on tv.

 

[Moose Malloy]

Interesting. You have seen both live and Keys hits harder than Sabs? I knew she hits hard sometimes its deceptive on tv.

They've had groundstroke mph stats mentioned many times over the years, and Keys is pretty much always tops on the WTA(even back in 2015 - she was definitely hitting harder than Serena in their AO SF). I remember commentators chuckling at her average mph being higher than Murray when he won Wimbledon. But Sabs is up there.

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[Pheasant]

Interesting. You have seen both live and Keys hits harder than Sabs? I knew she hits hard sometimes its deceptive on tv.

Sabs is #2. However, Sabs is far more accurate

 

[Lauren_Girl']

Not a surprising final between the 2 winners of the 2 WTA500 in Australia.
Keys must still have nightmares of that USO 2023 semifinal.
She was up 6-0 5-3. Then had the break again in the 3rd. I don't think she had a match point but she was 2 points away more than once.
And she lost 0-6 7-6 7-6. Would have had a fair chance in the final against Gauff if she'd beaten Sabalenka.
This kind of result is traumatizing. Their only match since then is Beijing and Sabalenka mopped the floor with her. She clearly has the psychologicl advantage.
If she couldn't do it in the US, I doubt she can do in in Australia. RLA is Sabalenka's garden since 2023.
I hope I'm wrong. I want Keys to win.
I think the is the active player with the most Slams quarterfinals without winning a title. 11 QF but 0 Slam. I don't think another active slamless player has more QF than Keys. She deserves her Slam more than anyone else.

 

[Connor35]

Shouldn't keys now be 1-3 vs. Top 10 on a hard court? Iga is in the top 10.

3-3.
She beat Jessie at Adelaide final and she just beat Rybakina at AO.

 

[Winners or Errors]

Oh my. Is this the moment when Keys overcomes what's between the ears to win the Australian Open? She has always had the shots and can certainly match Sabalenka power for power. Please, Madison, show up and play your best tennis. It'll be enough.

 

[GhostDog]

I can't see Keys winning but I think she gets a set as Sabs matches have been going 3.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Let's go Madison!

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

I can't see Keys winning but I think she gets a set as Sabs matches have been going 3.

I would love to see Sabalenka win in straights.

 

[nighthawkrr]

Keys made obvious improvements in her game and she has the power to match Sabalenka. I think we get a classic and Keys gets the W

 

[spystud]

 

[insideguy]

Keys had a brutal draw man. I dont care what anyone says that is impressive.

 

[bullfan]

Heart Keys. Head Sabalenka.

 

[Nostradamus]

H2H 1-4 for Aryna.
Sabalenka for third AO title and fourth GS title.
Keys in her first AO final and second GS final.
Let's enjoy!

i just can't see madison winning this match but if she does...... she will owe Yonex a million dollars and not the other way....LOL. even though Yonex will be benefiting by sales Skyrocketing all over the place in USA

 

[roysid]

i just can't see madison winning this match but if she does...... she will owe Yonex a million dollars and not the other way....LOL. even though Yonex will be benefiting by sales Skyrocketing all over the place in USA

Dont think yonex sales will skyrocket in any case.
But madison has a good chance if sabalenka starts choking

 

[Big_Dangerous]

My heart says Keys, because it would be an incredible story and nice for her to win her first major title. However, my head says Sabalenka is just too good on hard courts right now and will win this in 3 sets.
Hoping Keys can surprise me and upset the queen.

 

[spystud]

Selfishly, I’d like Aryna to handle this rather quickly. I’m pretty freaking tired already, & we ain’t even started.

 

[Subway Tennis]

Go Maddie! The crowd will go nuts if Keys can grab the first set and make this interesting.

Barracking for Keys 10,000 percent on this but it’s going to be tough against a player like sabalenka who is capable of the same level of aggression but has the extra safety of additinal spin, net clearance and margin for error. And she has so much belief at AO.

 

[Tennfan123]

Lord the tv station is dragging out the lead in to the final.

 

[spystud]

I’m good with Fowler & MJF in the booth.

 

[ultimathule]

Lord the tv station is dragging out the lead in to the final.

That's what makes Wimbledon special.

 

[ultimathule]

One minute until the match

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Madison has the keys to success

 

[tx10is]

let's go keys

 

[tennisjedi]

A break to start the match.

 

[ultimathule]

Good start.

 

[vokazu]

LETS GO MADDYYYYY

 

[NaomiKonjuhPotapova]

Keys break, nervy from Aryna

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Keys 2-0 could she actually take this?

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Some start by Keys, looks fantastic.

Sabalenka, a lot less so.

 

[Move]

Maddy is unplayable atm

 

[BallisticMissileFonseca]

Madison Keys is growing on me. I like her playstyle.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Sabalenka served just 1 double fault in her entire SF match against Badosa.

She’s already served 2 here in 1.5 games.