2025 Australian Open Draw - Top 4 (+2) contenders

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Hey all, 2025 Grand Slam season begins with the Aussie Open! Here's the top 6 contenders:

Jannik Sinner +150
Carlos Alcaraz +350
Novak Djokovic +450
Alexander Zverev +1200
Daniil Medvedev +1500
Taylor Fritz +3000

The most major contenders are obviously the first 3, but we'll include up the top 4 seeds (Sinner, Zverev, Alcaraz, Fritz) and the 2 contenders with rankings under Fritz but odds better than him (Djokovic and Medvedev).

Quarter 1 - Sinner
R1: Jarry
R2: Daniel
R3: Cobolli
R4: Rune/Hurkacz
QF: De Minaur/Tsitsipas
SF: Medvedev/Fritz
F: Alcaraz/Djokovic

Quarter 2 - Fritz
R1: Brooksby
R2: Coria
R3: Perricard
R4: Musetti/Shleton
QF: Medvedev
SF: Sinner
F: Alcaraz/Djokovic

Quarter 3 - Alcaraz
R1: Shevohenko
R2: Nishioka
R3: Thompson
R4: Draper/Korda
QF: Djokovic
SF: Zverev
F: Sinner

Quarter 4 - Zverev
R1: Pouille
R2: Martinez
R3: Kyrgios/Baez
R4: Humbert/Fils
QF: Ruud
SF: Djokovic/Alcaraz
F: Sinner

Contender 5 - Djokovic
R1: Basavareddy
R2: Kotov
R3: Machac/Opelka
R4: Dimitrov
QF: Alcaraz
SF: Zverev
F: Sinner

Contender 6 - Medvedev
R1: Samrej
R2: Carabelli
R3: Popyrin
R4: Rublev/Tiafoe
QF: Fritz
SF: Sinner
F: Djokovic/Alcaraz
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Sinner's draw was good, let's say that Jarry could have done worse but also better in the first round, I would have avoided Hurkacz in the eighths, but compensated by the fact of being in the same part of the draw as Fritz and not Alcaraz, and De Minaur and not Djokovic.
Sinner is the strongest but if you can save energy in the previous rounds it's always better, even if a rediscovered Medvedev can be more difficult than both Alcaraz and the current Djokovic.

While Djokovic's draw was terrible.
Machac in the third round was exactly the one to avoid in that tier.
But above all a possible clash in the quarterfinals with Alcaraz.
Same initial draw as Alcaraz which can hide some unknowns with Thompson and Draper.

The one who fared best of all is Zverev who seems to have a highway to the semifinals.
I doubt that the current Kyrgios can cause him any problems, as well as Fils who has always suffered in the recent past but 3 out of 5 is another sport.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Personal analysis:

Sinner's draw is relatively kind. Missed Alcaraz in the SF, got Fritz instead. Much easier. That said, would've been best if Medvedev and Djokovic were both in the other side - though even there he missed either as a QF opponent. It's a relatively easy draw. Not the easiest it could be, with somewhat dangerous floaters in Rune/Hurkacz, but pretty easy. 3/10?

Fritz: About as hard as you can imagine - there could be some tougher matchups but it's really tough. Got the harder semifinal, got the 2nd worst QF, hit a number of tough floaters. Extremely tough draw. Don't expect him to make it out. Part of the reason it's so hard is Fritz really is a step down from the other 3 top 4 seeds. 9/10 difficulty for him.

Alcaraz: Gradual ramp up of difficulty before the QF. About what you'd want to see if you're Carlos. Missed the Sinner SF, but hit the hardest QF. Middle of the road, but no dangerous floaters. R4 also could be tough, but you want to see that right before the QF. That said, having the 3rd strongest player as the QF has got to sting. 6.5/10.

Zverev: Had a chance of getting Fritz/Ruud or Fritz/ADM. Missed out - the SF/F will be painful, but the QF is actually pretty good. And everything before that is less dangerous (unless Humbert is playing out of his mind). And the SF is actually best case - maybe the winner of Djokovic/Alcaraz is tired and vulnerable. 3/10.

Djokovic: First 2 rounds are easy, then Opelka to Dimitrov could pose a minor roadbump (major if Opelka plays like he did last time). After that it's a tough world of Alcaraz to Zverev to Sinner. Among the worse QFs, but the better SF. I'd argue Djokovic would prefer to have a harder QF than a harder SF. Let's say 7.5/10.

Medvedev: First 2 rounds are easy, like Djokovic. Then Popyrin and Rublev/Tiafoe could be tough. After that there's Fritz (easiest QF), then the gauntlet of 2/3 of Djokovic/Alcaraz/Sinner. Could definitely be harder, but could also be easier. 4/10.
 

ND-13

Legend
Big picture - Sinner and Med on one side and Alcaraz / Djoker on the other

Remind me again what are the notable wins in major that Zverev has at a SF level ?
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Personal analysis:

Sinner's draw is relatively kind. Missed Alcaraz in the SF, got Fritz instead. Much easier. That said, would've been best if Medvedev and Djokovic were both in the other side - though even there he missed either as a QF opponent. It's a relatively easy draw. Not the easiest it could be, with somewhat dangerous floaters in Rune/Hurkacz, but pretty easy. 3/10?

Fritz: About as hard as you can imagine - there could be some tougher matchups but it's really tough. Got the harder semifinal, got the 2nd worst QF, hit a number of tough floaters. Extremely tough draw. Don't expect him to make it out. Part of the reason it's so hard is Fritz really is a step down from the other 3 top 4 seeds. 9/10 difficulty for him.

Alcaraz: Gradual ramp up of difficulty before the QF. About what you'd want to see if you're Carlos. Missed the Sinner SF, but hit the hardest QF. Middle of the road, but no dangerous floaters. R4 also could be tough, but you want to see that right before the QF. That said, having the 3rd strongest player as the QF has got to sting. 6.5/10.

Zverev: Had a chance of getting Fritz/Ruud or Fritz/ADM. Missed out - the SF/F will be painful, but the QF is actually pretty good. And everything before that is less dangerous (unless Humbert is playing out of his mind). And the SF is actually best case - maybe the winner of Djokovic/Alcaraz is tired and vulnerable. 3/10.

Djokovic: First 2 rounds are easy, then Opelka to Dimitrov could pose a minor roadbump (major if Opelka plays like he did last time). After that it's a tough world of Alcaraz to Zverev to Sinner. Among the worse QFs, but the better SF. I'd argue Djokovic would prefer to have a harder QF than a harder SF. Let's say 7.5/10.

Medvedev: First 2 rounds are easy, like Djokovic. Then Popyrin and Rublev/Tiafoe could be tough. After that there's Fritz (easiest QF), then the gauntlet of 2/3 of Djokovic/Alcaraz/Sinner. Could definitely be harder, but could also be easier. 4/10.
All more or less agreeable, but... I think you're underestimating Machac.
As if last year's growth wasn't enough, in the recent ATP Cup he impressed me.
Simply Machac is the worst possible opponent you want to find yourself in the third round, provided he has overcome the problem that forced him to retire against Fritz.

As a Sinner fan I would have liked to avoid him in the third round more than Djokovic or Medvedev in the quarterfinals, or Alcaraz in the semifinals.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
All more or less agreeable, but... I think you're underestimating Machac.
As if last year's growth wasn't enough, in the recent ATP Cup he impressed me.
Simply Machac is the worst possible opponent you want to find yourself in the third round, provided he has overcome the problem that forced him to retire against Fritz.

As a Sinner fan I would have liked to avoid him in the third round more than Djokovic or Medvedev in the quarterfinals, or Alcaraz in the semifinals.

If Magic Machac is healthy, he still likely has to go through Opelka. That's the first test. Both are coming in off of retirements, however, so Nole might be fine.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
All more or less agreeable, but... I think you're underestimating Machac.
As if last year's growth wasn't enough, in the recent ATP Cup he impressed me.
Simply Machac is the worst possible opponent you want to find yourself in the third round, provided he has overcome the problem that forced him to retire against Fritz.

As a Sinner fan I would have liked to avoid him in the third round more than Djokovic or Medvedev in the quarterfinals, or Alcaraz in the semifinals.
Perhaps. But my major view of it (as I haven't been following as intensely as previous years) is Machac isn't quite as big a roadblock as he might seem.

He has the skills to compete (victory over Alcaraz in Shanghai, R16 in USO), but is #1: inconsistent (Shanghai performance followed by a loss to rank 213 in Almaty 250), #2: injury prone (RET in Paris, RET in Almaty, RET in United Cup, Davis Cup Double RET), and #3: even his highs aren't as good - win over Alcaraz was a lot on Alcaraz playing worse tennis than he normally does than Machac redlining.

He could be a roadblock for someone slow to get going in a major - like Djokovic - if he starts redlining (which he has shown no reason to think he will) but Opelka showed just last week what he's made of. When he's playing well, even a decently playing Djokovic can't beat him. I don't think I can say the same of Machac. And I can only pick one to move on and face Djokovic.
 

MeatTornado

Talk Tennis Guru
I'm feeling pretty confident this won't be the year Carlos completes the career slam.

The order of opponents there is pretty much his worst case scenario. Djokovic in the quarters before he's too worn down, and Zverev pre-final where he's 10x less likely to sh1t the bed.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
I'm feeling pretty confident this won't be the year Carlos completes the career slam.

The order of opponents there is pretty much his worst case scenario. Djokovic in the quarters before he's too worn down, and Zverev pre-final where he's 10x less likely to sh1t the bed.

The question for me is, does Djokovic make it to the quarters?
 

Enceladus

Legend
Nole and Carlitos have the toughest draw, but they have the luck that Meddy is in Sinner's half of the spider. So which of the two will advance from their quarter, will have an easier SF.
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Its a great draw. Pretty much guarantees that the guys that we want to see there at the end of the tourney will be there as they are kind of getting astro-turfed in.

I guess the only better situation would be if Djokovic had Zed’s quarter.
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
As Djokovic's ranking falls, he is getting tough draws now. Bottom half is packed with Alcaraz, Djokovic and Zverev, arguably 4 best players of the present moment. To win the whole thing, Nole has to beat all of them. That will be like playing 3 consecutive finals in a row. Hard to see Novak winning this year. He will need some miracle like 2 of top 3 crashing out early.
 

dking68

Legend
Its a great draw. Pretty much guarantees that the guys that we want to see there at the end of the tourney will be there as they are kind of getting astro-turfed in.

I guess the only better situation would be if Djokovic had Zed’s quarter.
I got Sinner defending comfortably. Defeating Z in a non-competitive 4 setter max in the finals. Z to be 0-3 in finals
 

Turning Pro

Hall of Fame
As Djokovic's ranking falls, he is getting tough draws now. Bottom half is packed with Alcaraz, Djokovic and Zverev, arguably 4 best players of the present moment. To win the whole thing, Nole has to beat all of them. That will be like playing 3 consecutive finals in a row. Hard to see Novak winning this year. He will need some miracle like 2 of top 3 crashing out early.

Watch Djokers draw fall apart. Also the players are not particularly strong mentally nowadays.
 

FreeJannik

New User
I'm feeling pretty confident this won't be the year Carlos completes the career slam.

The order of opponents there is pretty much his worst case scenario. Djokovic in the quarters before he's too worn down, and Zverev pre-final where he's 10x less likely to sh1t the bed.
Agree. Thompson and Draper are very dangerous too...
 

Fedforever

Hall of Fame
I always love these threads which end up saying "X will have a tough Semi-Final"

Isn't that what they should expect?
 

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
Bottom half of the draw is so garbage. Top half I’m going to be watching like 4 matches at a time for the whole first week. Not looking forward to it.
 

Jack the Hack

Hall of Fame
Jarry is a R1 nightmare for anyone wow

Considering Jarry has lost in the 1st round of 13 out of the 19 Slams he's played (including all 4 last year), I'd say he's more of a R1 nightmare to himself.

The angle I'm surprised nobody here on TTW has brought up yet is the fact that Jarry was suspended for 11 months for a doping violation 5 years ago due to a supplement he ingested containing two different banned steroids. And now he's drawn Sinner, TTW's favorite whipping boy when it comes to a failed doping tests. The circumstances of these violations couldn't be more different. Still, I wonder why Kyrgios hasn't been whining about Jarry all this time considering his high moral ground. :rolleyes:

Anyway, I suppose a 6'7" server could cause some issues if he's on fire. However, Jarry isn't the best returner or mover, so I don't expect Sinner to have many issues getting through unless he's having a terrible day or gets injured.
 

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Agreed, if everything turns out well, we get Sinner/Alcaraz. If it's not perfect, we still get the backup of Medvedev and Djokovic on either side.

The semifinals could be stronger, but even the QFs are exciting with Fritz/Medvedev and Djokovic/Alcaraz. Not to mention the other good matches sprinkled throughout the draw. Honestly, might be as good of a pull for tennis as we've seen in a while.
 

Drighiz

Rookie
Pretty much as good a draw as us fans could have hoped. We should be in for a real treat with plenty to look forward to.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Personal analysis:

Sinner's draw is relatively kind. Missed Alcaraz in the SF, got Fritz instead. Much easier. That said, would've been best if Medvedev and Djokovic were both in the other side - though even there he missed either as a QF opponent. It's a relatively easy draw. Not the easiest it could be, with somewhat dangerous floaters in Rune/Hurkacz, but pretty easy. 3/10?

Fritz: About as hard as you can imagine - there could be some tougher matchups but it's really tough. Got the harder semifinal, got the 2nd worst QF, hit a number of tough floaters. Extremely tough draw. Don't expect him to make it out. Part of the reason it's so hard is Fritz really is a step down from the other 3 top 4 seeds. 9/10 difficulty for him.

Alcaraz: Gradual ramp up of difficulty before the QF. About what you'd want to see if you're Carlos. Missed the Sinner SF, but hit the hardest QF. Middle of the road, but no dangerous floaters. R4 also could be tough, but you want to see that right before the QF. That said, having the 3rd strongest player as the QF has got to sting. 6.5/10.

Zverev: Had a chance of getting Fritz/Ruud or Fritz/ADM. Missed out - the SF/F will be painful, but the QF is actually pretty good. And everything before that is less dangerous (unless Humbert is playing out of his mind). And the SF is actually best case - maybe the winner of Djokovic/Alcaraz is tired and vulnerable. 3/10.

Djokovic: First 2 rounds are easy, then Opelka to Dimitrov could pose a minor roadbump (major if Opelka plays like he did last time). After that it's a tough world of Alcaraz to Zverev to Sinner. Among the worse QFs, but the better SF. I'd argue Djokovic would prefer to have a harder QF than a harder SF. Let's say 7.5/10.

Medvedev: First 2 rounds are easy, like Djokovic. Then Popyrin and Rublev/Tiafoe could be tough. After that there's Fritz (easiest QF), then the gauntlet of 2/3 of Djokovic/Alcaraz/Sinner. Could definitely be harder, but could also be easier. 4/10.

Think Zed's draw is harder than Sinner's. He has Djokovic + Alcaraz. He's probably glad not to face Fritz again, but he would like Medvedev level probably.
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
Considering Jarry has lost in the 1st round of 13 out of the 19 Slams he's played (including all 4 last year), I'd say he's more of a R1 nightmare to himself.

The angle I'm surprised nobody here on TTW has brought up yet is the fact that Jarry was suspended for 11 months for a doping violation 5 years ago due to a supplement he ingested containing two different banned steroids. And now he's drawn Sinner, TTW's favorite whipping boy when it comes to a failed doping tests. The circumstances of these violations couldn't be more different. Still, I wonder why Kyrgios hasn't been whining about Jarry all this time considering his high moral ground. :rolleyes:

Anyway, I suppose a 6'7" server could cause some issues if he's on fire. However, Jarry isn't the best returner or mover, so I don't expect Sinner to have many issues getting through unless he's having a terrible day or gets injured.

Because Jarry was suspended? He did the crime and served the time.

Not entirely sure what Kyrgios is going on about, but the announcement of the whole Sinner affair was botched big time.
 

Quaichang

Professional
All more or less agreeable, but... I think you're underestimating Machac.
As if last year's growth wasn't enough, in the recent ATP Cup he impressed me.
Simply Machac is the worst possible opponent you want to find yourself in the third round, provided he has overcome the problem that forced him to retire against Fritz.

As a Sinner fan I would have liked to avoid him in the third round more than Djokovic or Medvedev in the quarterfinals, or Alcaraz in the semifinals.
I’m not sold on Mahac.
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
I do wonder if Humbert just doesn't match up well with Zed, but not sure if their last match in Paris was a good example. He was exhausted by then.
Yes he was running on funes in Paris. I dont like the matchup though.

The trouble I see for Humbert is smacking the ball hard and flat from poor positions on the court and not being able to reciver court position quickly enough against a guy like Zverev who is an amazing attacker and defensive counter puncher and will just spread the court against him while hitting with a better margin for error.
 

GloW

Professional
Think Zed's draw is harder than Sinner's. He has Djokovic + Alcaraz. He's probably glad not to face Fritz again, but he would like Medvedev level probably.
Zed has shown that he can beat Alcaraz very easily in last year's ATP finals, and with the current form of Djokovic, I'd say he has a really good chance. But sinner has the easiest semi of all time, I mean Fritz can only do something against Zverev, otherwise he is dead. Lol.
 
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