Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Fonseca to win the aussie open
2025 Australian Open - General Discussion for Men's Singles
- Thread starter Enceladus
- Start date
chjtennis
G.O.A.T.
Lots of good match ups from the 1st round. The depth and quality are really good on men's side.
Winner Sinner
Hall of Fame
I am surprised by those who are surprised, Fonseca in recent weeks had literally annihilated the competition between Next-Gen, Challenger and qualification for this Australian Open, showing a devastating tennis for completeness.
I do not see any apparent defects in him, a mix between the devastating accelerations of Alcaraz and the constant pressure of Sinner's groundstrokes.
But the thing that should scare everyone in view of the future is his incisiveness in service, also this has been underlined several times in the previous weeks.
This result perhaps surprises in proportion but not in the final outcome.
Now he becomes the loose cannon of the tournament, no one can grasp his current limits at the current stage, and this is what should keep many awake at night.
In addition, he also brings with him the Brazilian torcida that certainly guarantees him a superplus in terms of adrenaline.
I do not see any apparent defects in him, a mix between the devastating accelerations of Alcaraz and the constant pressure of Sinner's groundstrokes.
But the thing that should scare everyone in view of the future is his incisiveness in service, also this has been underlined several times in the previous weeks.
This result perhaps surprises in proportion but not in the final outcome.
Now he becomes the loose cannon of the tournament, no one can grasp his current limits at the current stage, and this is what should keep many awake at night.
In addition, he also brings with him the Brazilian torcida that certainly guarantees him a superplus in terms of adrenaline.
chjtennis
G.O.A.T.
That's exactly what I thought.
FreeJannik
New User
A star is born 
celito
Professional
I think his movement and defense might be a small weakness. Not bad but not top notch IMO right now. But he is going to be an attacking player.
TheSlicer
Hall of Fame
hi man, yeah pretty special this kid seems, great start of the season for him already, TBH tsitsipas played quite better at that match at uso than rublev today, but then, it was 5 sets, not 3.
the mentality and serve of fonseca is what has impressed me most today.
NYTennisfan
Hall of Fame
I was just thinking, this sort of reminds me of when Alcaraz beat Tsitsipas at the 2021 USO. It's the moment when you see the generational hype first realized on a big stage. He has that joy fur the game and flair that Carlos has as well, just please let this kid stay healthy and humble.
Marius_Hancu
Talk Tennis Guru
Fonseca won US Open Jrs in 2022. That was his first major in the Jrs, but that was enough to take him to Jrs #1 and to switch him to the pros. He beat then Learner Tien of the US, #4 Jrs, who's presently close too to #100 ATP.
Fonseca took just one year to get into ATP top 100. He's hit now NCH #98.
Fonseca took just one year to get into ATP top 100. He's hit now NCH #98.
He only played two top 100 players at the Next Gen Finals, winning against #48 Mensik and #20 Fils in five sets each. In the challenger and qualifications, the top player he beat was #99.
Straight setting Rublev at a Major is a whole different level. I think a lot of people thought he could do it, but this was in the big leagues against a top player (albeit one who has been struggling).
Winner Sinner
Hall of Fame
It has nothing to do with it, you have to evaluate trend and proportions.
Fonseca participated in the Next-Gen with a 145 ranking, he was the worst ranked among all the participants and despite this he dominated the tournament.
In this beginning of 2025 between Challengers and AO qualifiers he had not met any top 100 but he swept them all away, leaving the feeling that he now belonged to a different ionosphere compared to that level, him who last year even at Challenger level did not do great things.
Last year I saw him in Bologna in the Davis Cup and although he left me with good feelings nothing comparable to what he has shown in recent weeks.
He is in full development phase but in the last period he has put the sixth gear by stepping on the accelerator and the results are there for all to see.
His current level is already top 50 if you want to keep it tight, but he could very well already have a top 20 level (what I predicted in the past few days, focus ranking comparable to that of Rune 2022 at the same age) and in a single match as demonstrated today he can already beat even the top 10.
The trend was unmistakable, this is why on the eve many of us said that he could beat Rublev and that should not be surprising.
I repeat, what is surprising is the proportion of the victory, not the victory itself.
celito
Professional
That Challenger also had very windy conditions in every match. He changed his game and played down the middle tennis instead of aiming for the lines which was a pretty impressive adjustment IMO.
TheSlicer
Hall of Fame
agree, i expected him to win, rublev has been in free fall for a long time, i didnt expect straight sets, but to be fair, rublev played very poorly, and fonseca played the best level ive seen from him.
celito
Professional
I thought Rublev actually played pretty well on his serve for most of the match. Except for the drop in form in the beginning of the 2nd set.
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
That's fair.
Berrettini_Fan
Professional
Berrettini won!
Pmasterfunk
Hall of Fame
Fedforever
Hall of Fame
Does that mean his future match threads will be 90% "OMG, he's playing terribly!!!!" before he wins in straight sets?
TheSlicer
Hall of Fame
i dont know, ive seen a good level from him over the years and today to me he was pretty bland, sure, he could keep his serve most of the time, but thats not a lot to ask to a top 10 with a good serve plus 1 against an 18 year old in his first slam match
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Here he goes lol
But that's my point. He didn't dominate the Next Gen tournament. He was extended to five sets against the two best players he played, with the match against Mensik featuring five tiebreakers. I'm on board the Fonseca train and expected him to win against Rublev, but his play today to win in straight sets was another couple of rungs higher than what he showed in Jeddah.
Winner Sinner
Hall of Fame
A Star is Born. Joao Fonseca is the rock star of the Melbourne night: with a tennis of stellar power, quality, speed and quantity of solutions, the 18-year-old from Rio de Janeiro surprises Andrey Rublev (seeded no. 9 of the tournament) by 7-6(1) 6-3 7-6(5) giving an impressive demonstration of strength, all in his first career match in a Slam and therefore over the long distance. Rublev did not play a single bad match, he did not collapse in his self-destructive moments that too often gave the green light to the opponent of the moment. It was Fonseca who took the best position on the court, strong of a continuous service and above all beautiful accelerations, hit with so much anticipation and speed as to become uncatchable.
Powerful forehand (he hit one at 181 km/h, the fastest of the tournament so far), sensational backhand for the ease of the ball coming off the strings both down the line and cross… There is no phase of the game or position on the court from which Joao cannot “break the ball” and find a winner, even when forced to defend. For his very young age, his technical completeness is sensational: he also manages the timing of the attack very well and manages to defend himself quite well, even if it is precisely the physical side – fine speed and strength – the area on which he will have to work to sustain this speed in prolonged rallies and keep up his crazy pace in push for hours, those necessary to battle on equal terms against the best. From what we saw tonight in Melbourne, he is really very close…
x.com
A piece of data provided during the match is truly frightening: in the first match of the tournament the top 10 are serving the second serve at an average speed of 158 km/h; Fonseca in the match won against Rublev was sailing safely at 175 km/h! An incredible result, because with such a fast and precise second serve it is not easy to attack him at all. Rublev succeeded at times by unleashing all the power of his forehand, but he was not always able to take the point by force because Fonseca, even when running, manages to hit the ball quickly and precisely. In fact, perhaps the most astonishing aspect in the performance of the Carioca is his control of the ball at that speed of execution, all in a technical completeness rarely seen for a boy of his age. Technically impeccable executions, absolute anticipation and speed, and also a head really focused on the game that allows him to play the burning points very well. Impressive.
Fonseca dominated the tiebreak of the first set with a series of beautiful shots, one better than the other; then in the second set he went ahead forcefully, responding very well and therefore taking the point from the center of the court. Good at containing Andrey's inside out forehands and often hitting him with backhands down the line played almost without opening, with pure timing. What class.
x.com
At the start of the third set a small drop in energy, after all it was his first match in a Slam. He goes down a break but recovers it immediately, with the tenacity of an experienced tennis player. A few more errors, with slightly heavier legs. The feeling is that Rublev, who has risen in the push, can turn the match around if he takes home the third set by extending the match. Perhaps Fonseca is also aware of this, and for this reason in the tiebreak he goes for broke. And everything goes well for him... other fantastic accelerations and closing with his arms raised. First victory in a Slam in his first appearance, against an expert top 10 and great fighter.
Let's remember that Fonseca has not yet lost a match in 2025 (he won the Canberra Challenger) and has crushed every opponent in the qualifiers. It will be very intriguing to see him at the "proof of the 9" against our Lorenzo Sonego. Joao Fonseca, what a talent... Be careful, this terrible boy has everything it takes to climb the world rankings with the force of a Tsunami...
Powerful forehand (he hit one at 181 km/h, the fastest of the tournament so far), sensational backhand for the ease of the ball coming off the strings both down the line and cross… There is no phase of the game or position on the court from which Joao cannot “break the ball” and find a winner, even when forced to defend. For his very young age, his technical completeness is sensational: he also manages the timing of the attack very well and manages to defend himself quite well, even if it is precisely the physical side – fine speed and strength – the area on which he will have to work to sustain this speed in prolonged rallies and keep up his crazy pace in push for hours, those necessary to battle on equal terms against the best. From what we saw tonight in Melbourne, he is really very close…
x.com
x.com
A piece of data provided during the match is truly frightening: in the first match of the tournament the top 10 are serving the second serve at an average speed of 158 km/h; Fonseca in the match won against Rublev was sailing safely at 175 km/h! An incredible result, because with such a fast and precise second serve it is not easy to attack him at all. Rublev succeeded at times by unleashing all the power of his forehand, but he was not always able to take the point by force because Fonseca, even when running, manages to hit the ball quickly and precisely. In fact, perhaps the most astonishing aspect in the performance of the Carioca is his control of the ball at that speed of execution, all in a technical completeness rarely seen for a boy of his age. Technically impeccable executions, absolute anticipation and speed, and also a head really focused on the game that allows him to play the burning points very well. Impressive.
Fonseca dominated the tiebreak of the first set with a series of beautiful shots, one better than the other; then in the second set he went ahead forcefully, responding very well and therefore taking the point from the center of the court. Good at containing Andrey's inside out forehands and often hitting him with backhands down the line played almost without opening, with pure timing. What class.
x.com
x.com
At the start of the third set a small drop in energy, after all it was his first match in a Slam. He goes down a break but recovers it immediately, with the tenacity of an experienced tennis player. A few more errors, with slightly heavier legs. The feeling is that Rublev, who has risen in the push, can turn the match around if he takes home the third set by extending the match. Perhaps Fonseca is also aware of this, and for this reason in the tiebreak he goes for broke. And everything goes well for him... other fantastic accelerations and closing with his arms raised. First victory in a Slam in his first appearance, against an expert top 10 and great fighter.
Let's remember that Fonseca has not yet lost a match in 2025 (he won the Canberra Challenger) and has crushed every opponent in the qualifiers. It will be very intriguing to see him at the "proof of the 9" against our Lorenzo Sonego. Joao Fonseca, what a talent... Be careful, this terrible boy has everything it takes to climb the world rankings with the force of a Tsunami...
Rosstour
Talk Tennis Guru
Rublev and TPas have both applied for their Finnish passports. Their applications have been approved, but will take 3-4 years to fully process.
Winner Sinner
Hall of Fame
He won all 5 matches in Jeddah, including the semi-final and the one-sided final.
If that's not dominating.
Moreover, Fils is the same one who had closed 2024 strong by entering the top 20, and Mensik had also impressed in the end of the season.
The point is that Fonseca from Jeddah onwards is growing tournament after tournament.
Oh yeah, on that point we 100% agree. This will be fun to watch.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Fonseca to enter top 20 this year? It would be earlier than Nole if it happens.
celito
Professional
The thing is, Fonseca up until the third set was also serving well. Ended up with 14 aces (one more than Rublev) serving 73% 1st seve. And it was higher in the first 1 sets. His serve only took a dip in the 3rd set. I think that's a bit of the reason. It wasn't a match of many long rallies.
celito
Professional
Good Lord man ... Next Gen is Fast 4 format with no ad scoring. What do you expect in that format ???
When Alcaraz won it in 2021, he only dropped one set while Fonseca lost 6 sets, including being extended to five sets twice.
That performance today was Alcaraz-esque. The win in Jeddah was not, at least IMHO.
TheSlicer
Hall of Fame
Yeah thats true also, Fonseca served amazing, but he was clearly better off the ground too
Monfils won the first two sets, had match points in the third set, ended up losing sets 3-4, but pulled it out in five.
Mainad
Bionic Poster
He beat fellow Frenchie Mpetshi Perricard in 5.
EddieChang
Rookie
Winning all matches in a tournament is not called dominating lol you have to do that in most tournaments to even win lol
Marius_Hancu
Talk Tennis Guru
His mother has.
Marius_Hancu
Talk Tennis Guru
Not me, sorry.
More similar to Djokovic:
- not using a 1HBH (essential in terms of form/aestetics)
- not enough at net to paint a similar game
- upper body OK, lower body without the perfect shape of Federer's; I see weaknesses there which will not take him to 20 GSs
Future great, I agree, but him liking Fed doesn't make him similar to Fed.
tennisjedi
Hall of Fame
I couldn't watch the Fonseca-Rublev match because of the huge time difference from where I live. 
Glad Fonseca won. I thought it was gonna be a 5 setter but surprisingly it was in straight sets.
Glad Fonseca won. I thought it was gonna be a 5 setter but surprisingly it was in straight sets.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Daniel Andrade
Hall of Fame
albatros_forehand
Hall of Fame
Yes I also don’t see it except for the aggression. He is more robust SUV in the lower body. More like Wawrinka than Fed
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Djokovic is already playing day session. No preferential treatment crying.
Daniel Andrade
Hall of Fame
I liked the kid, but didn't remind me of him. I slept at 1-3 on the third set. Did he show touch?
Daniel Andrade
Hall of Fame
He reminded me a little bit more of Thiem than him.
Enceladus
Legend
Based on the comments here, I didn't miss the Rublev-Foncesa match and although the match ended in three sets, the play was of high quality, both players had a positive winners to UEs ratio. It doesn't happen often that an opponent surpasses Rublev in the number of winner shots scored, but Foncesa significantly surpassed him (51 to 33). His FH winning shots were like a cannonballs. Foncesa was not intimidated by the fact that he was facing a TOP 10 player. Perhaps today we witnessed the beginning of another ATG career.
Similar threads
- Poll
- Poll
- Poll
