2025 Australian Open - Quarterfinals - [1] Jannik Sinner vs [8] Alex de Minaur

[Winner Sinner]

The h2h between the two sees Sinner always winning in 9 challenges.
Here in Melbourne there has already been a precedent dated 2022 where Sinner won 3-0 in the fourth round.
The last time (which is also the only time) in which de Minaur took a set from Sinner we have to go back to over 4 years ago, Sofia 2020.
Sinner won the last 17 sets played in the matchup.

Last year the challenges in Rotterdam and Malaga were much more balanced than one might imagine (except the one in Turin).
De Minaur, who will obviously have the support of the public, is closer to Sinner but not enough to be able to think of generating the upset.
I think he can finally win a set.

 

[dking68]

Sinner in 3

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sinner doesn't even lose sets vs adm.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Just saw his odds drop from -650 to -475, which seems crazy. Do people actually think he has some injury? AdM is playing really well, Australia, etc., but this is the worst possible player for him to play.

 

[Jonesy]

Minaur has a potato forehand that will never even damage Sinner.

 

[tudwell]

De Minaur winning a set here would be more shocking than Tommy Paul winning the entire tournament.

 

[nolefam_2024]

De Minaur winning a set here would be more shocking than Tommy Paul winning the entire tournament.

Sinner can get injury so it's still possible but well playing sinner, probably.

 

[Winner Sinner]

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Sinner in 3! He owns this matchup!

 

[NYTennisfan]

Sinner in 3 grindy sets. As usual with ADM, he'll make things interesting for a moment or two against top guys make them run around for a bit then get overwhelmed with power. Something like 6-4 7-5 6-3 sounds about right. Jannik has zero tests until the final, might come back to bite him when the competition ramps up like ten times higher against far better than he faced prior to that.

 

[ghostofMecir]

De Minaur winning a set here would be more shocking than Tommy Paul winning the entire tournament.

I know you’re hyperbolizing, but he’ll win one sooner or later. There will be two close sets at least. AdM is -150 to win a set…


Btw, Paul is at +5000 to win the tournament.

 

[Alcawrath]

Sinner in three. If he loses momentum at any point or needs another hit of something, he'll just take an MTO to take back the lead and cruise to the semis. Oh, and he'll do it just before ADMs service game.

 

[dking68]

Sinner in three. If he loses momentum at any point or needs another hit of something, he'll just take an MTO to take back the lead and cruise to the semis. Oh, and he'll do it just before ADMs service game.

I agree

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Sinner to crush his little b!t¢h again.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Sinner isn't playing well. Minäūr will look to peak here

 

[Tennisfan339]

Let's go Demon. It might be his best chance to upset Sinner.
Sinner doesn't look good imo. Lost 2 sets (should've lost 1 against Jarry too), was struggling with his hip and his fitness. He's lucky Rune is such a mental clown and couldn't take advantage in the 3rd set. Hopefully his other opponents wont make the same mistake.

 

[junior74]

Sinner will win, because he gets the night session. He had big problems in the heat today.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Sinner in three. If he loses momentum at any point or needs another hit of something, he'll just take an MTO to take back the lead and cruise to the semis. Oh, and he'll do it just before ADMs service game.

Care to elaborate how many MTO Sinner has taken in the last three years? You seem to be particularly well informed.

 

[kishnabe]

10-0 H2H incoming.

 

[SneederFeeder]

Kinda crazy how this H2H can be already halfway to Djokovic vs Monfils while the oldest of the 2 isn't even 26

 

[dking68]

Kinda crazy how this H2H can be already halfway to Djokovic vs Monfils while the oldest of the 2 isn't even 26

It’s crazy cuz I don’t think Demon likes Sinner, while Monfils loves Novak

 

[SneederFeeder]

It’s crazy cuz I don’t think Demon likes Sinner, while Monfils loves Novak

Tbf, it takes a lot of heart to like someone who essentially shuts down your career when you get into a late stage of a tournament.

Yes obviously Sinner has no fault at all and everyone rightfully plays to win, but on a mental level it's hard to sympathize with a guy who stands opposed to your goal that much.

Also much easier from a purely pragmatic POV to find the will to go beast mode if you have bad blood with your opponent. (Not that it's done ADM much good lol)

 

[Alcawrath]

Care to elaborate how many MTO Sinner has taken in the last three years? You seem to be particularly well informed.

Did you watch the match last night against Rune? Sinner, early in the third set when they were tied at one set all and still on serve, took an MTO before Rune's serve essentially icing his opponent. As long as the ump allows it, it's not illegal, but it's unsportsmanlike to the extreme and I lost a lot of respect for the Italian already guilty of failing a drug test in the same year. #1 in the world shouldn't have to resort to this sort of gamesmanship to win matches. I can't believe I'm saying it, but he played Holger Rune and was somehow a much worse sport...

 

[Pheasant]

This match will test Sinner's form. Sinner is 9-0 vs de Minaur, counting their New Gen ATP Finals match where Sinner won 4-2, 4-1, 4-2.

Sinner has won the last 17 sets that they've played and has won 20 of the 21 sets that they've played. The only set that he lost was a tiebreaker. However, he's dished out 3 bread sticks and a bagel.

I'm picking Sinner in straights here, 6-4, 7-6, 6-3. If de Minaur wins a set, then Sinner won't bag the title.

 

[dking68]

@Pheasant Sinner will win this tournament IMO. Can’t see anyone beating him

 

[Alcawrath]

@Pheasant Sinner will win this tournament IMO. Can’t see anyone beating him

I think there are four that have a chance, with two of the four as favorites. As they're playing right now, I would say Zverev and Sinner have to be favorites. I'm obviously an Alcaraz fan, so I believe he can beat anyone left, but he'll need to raise his level like he's been able to do in the past if he's going to have a shot.

 

[dking68]

I think there are four that have a chance, with two of the four as favorites. As they're playing right now, I would say Zverev and Sinner have to be favorites. I'm obviously an Alcaraz fan, so I believe he can beat anyone left, but he'll need to raise his level like he's been able to do in the past if he's going to have a shot.

Please don’t put him in the same line as Sinner, he will lose convincingly if they play each other in the final.

 

[Alcawrath]

Please don’t put him in the same line as Sinner, he will lose convincingly if they play each other in the final.

You mean like at the US Open '23?

Also, I'm no Z fan (by any stretch of the imagination), but he's played a pretty good AO so far

 

[dking68]

You mean like at the US Open '23?

Also, I'm no Z fan (by any stretch of the imagination), but he's played a pretty good AO so far

Sinner has won 2 slams since then, been world number 1 and is currently riding a 17 match win streak. Z on the other hand has only won 2 masters and bent over to Carlos in the RG final, who imo played his worst slam final win ever. Has no slams to bait and loses to the very best in deciding sets. Also on a 4 match losing streak to Fritz. If they play in the final, Sinner will beat him convincingly in 4, hard to see a fifth

And to the bolder statement - what about AO 2020, USO 2021? Whats the difference? Only to bend over to Sinner in the final, which I’m sure he will?

 

[Alcawrath]

Sinner has won 2 slams since then, been world number 1 and is currently riding a 17 match win streak. Z on the other hand has only won 2 masters and bent over to Carlos in the RG final, who imo played his worst slam final win ever

And to the bolder statement - what about AO 2020, USO 2021? Whats the difference? Only to bend over to Sinner in the final, which I’m sure he will?

Slow your roll a little here @dking68. This started when I named your boy Sinner and Z as two heavy favorites right now in the tournament. You then were incensed I would even mention Z as a competitor to Sinner and I'm just pointing out that Zverev is of a similar caliber. He's not a slam winner yet, but he's got a winning record against Sinner for the time being with one of those wins at a slam. My only point is that he's a contender, not that he will definitively win the tournament or beat sinner, just that he has the ability.

 

[dking68]

Slow your roll a little here @dking68. This started when I named your boy Sinner and Z as two heavy favorites right now in the tournament. You then were incensed I would even mention Z as a competitor to Sinner and I'm just pointing out that Zverev is of a similar caliber. He's not a slam winner yet, but he's got a winning record against Sinner for the time being with one of those wins at a slam. My only point is that he's a contender, not that he will definitively win the tournament or beat sinner, just that he has the ability.

The ability to lose to Sinner

 

[Alcawrath]

The ability to lose to Sinner

Or beat Sinner like he did last time they met at a slam or beat Sinner like he usually does. But yes, Z could also lose like he always seems to do en route to a slam title

 

[Winner Sinner]

Can someone explain to me why Sinner did not want to go into detail about the type of problem he had during the match against Rune?

It is said that by not wanting to reveal the problem he does not want to give any kind of advantage to his opponents, and this is the point, since it was an organic problem and not traumatic, I cannot understand what kind of advantage he should give to his opponents.
It seems a bit like Djokovic's situation at the Australian Open 2023, even in that case they wanted to keep everything hidden until the end of the tournament, with the difference that in that case if I remember correctly he had a muscular problem in his abdominals, so it made much more sense to avoid disclosing everything.

 

[dking68]

Or beat Sinner like he did last time they met at a slam or beat Sinner like he usually does. But yes, Z could also lose like he always seems to do en route to a slam title

Let’s start with beating Fritz

 

[Rovesciarete]

Did you watch the match last night against Rune? Sinner, early in the third set when they were tied at one set all and still on serve, took an MTO before Rune's serve essentially icing his opponent. As long as the ump allows it, it's not illegal, but it's unsportsmanlike to the extreme and I lost a lot of respect for the Italian already guilty of failing a drug test in the same year. #1 in the world shouldn't have to resort to this sort of gamesmanship to win matches. I can't believe I'm saying it, but he played Holger Rune and was somehow a much worse sport...

So a MTO is automatically gamesmanship? The medical professional aka doctor clearly disagreed with you, as does the video evidence of a violently shaking Sinner.

But on this board anybody can believe whatever he or she fancies, regardless of any evidence or proof.

 

[Winner Sinner]

In the meantime, de Minaur has reached the quarterfinals in each of the 4 majors consecutively with this achievement.
Only Sinner currently boasts the same open streak.
An unmistakable sign that the Australian's game is suitable for every surface.

 

[Alcawrath]

So a MTO is automatically gamesmanship? The medical professional aka doctor clearly disagreed with you, as does the video evidence of a violently shaking Sinner.

But on this board anybody can believe whatever he or she fancies, regardless of any evidence or proof.

Then he should have taken the MTO before his own serve minutes before. Yes, it's gamesmanship and Sinner's smirk on camera immediately following when Rune took a short MTO before Sinner's serve spoke volumes. This is also the same player that failed a drug test recently, so they don't get my benefit of the doubt.

 

[Drighiz]

Then he should have taken the MTO before his own serve minutes before. Yes, it's gamesmanship and Sinner's smirk on camera immediately following when Rune took a short MTO before Sinner's serve spoke volumes. This is also the same player that failed a drug test recently, so they don't get my benefit of the doubt.

Don't cherry-pick events. It's also the same player who refused to throw a match (against Rune) at the Finals to eliminate Djokovic. Would you have done it? His sportsmanship has never been in doubt. He took the MTO when he needed to, simple.

 

[Alcawrath]

Don't cherry-pick events. It's also the same player who refused to throw a match (against Rune) at the Finals to eliminate Djokovic. Would you have done it? His sportsmanship has never been in doubt. He took the MTO when he needed to, simple.

This is a thread about the AO and I'm talking about his last match at the AO, it's not cherry picking, it's literally what he did less than 24 hrs ago. It's terrible sportsmanship to take an MTO before your opponent's serve. Disagree if you want, idc, but he did this yesterday and failed a drug test recently so his sportsmanship is seriously in question whether you agree or not

 

[tudwell]

Can someone explain to me why Sinner did not want to go into detail about the type of problem he had during the match against Rune?

It is said that by not wanting to reveal the problem he does not want to give any kind of advantage to his opponents, and this is the point, since it was an organic problem and not traumatic, I cannot understand what kind of advantage he should give to his opponents.
It seems a bit like Djokovic's situation at the Australian Open 2023, even in that case they wanted to keep everything hidden until the end of the tournament, with the difference that in that case if I remember correctly he had a muscular problem in his abdominals, so it made much more sense to avoid disclosing everything.

He did say there was no injury and that he simply wasn’t feeling well. I assume with a day’s rest and a night match tomorrow, he’ll be a-ok for the quarters.

 

[Winner Sinner]

The matchup is obviously favorable to Sinner, among the current top 10 ranked players it is the most one-sided statistically together with the one between Djokovic and Fritz.
However, those who think that it will be yet another Sinner domination to the detriment of the Australian player are ignoring some unknowns.

The first is how Sinner will recover from this problem in the space of 48 hours.
Against Rune he closed the match in style also taking advantage of the continuous breaks that were favorable to him.
However, that problem that is not yet specified, according to Sinner himself, forced him to give up the usual warm-up.

Another unknown is the time slot.
There are all the conditions for it to be placed in the evening session since it is the main match of the day that sees the world number 1 opposed to the home favorite.
However, if the organizers wanted to give an advantage to their compatriot de Minaur by leveraging the physical conditions shown by Sinner in the match against Rune, they could insert him in the day session, even if from what filters through, after the last two days of great heat in the next few days the temperatures in Melbourne should drop.

Ultimately, Sinner, as already said, is the worst possible matchup for de Minaur, but if he were not to recover full integrity, at that point the very dynamic game of the Australian could turn out to be a boomerang for him, even more so if the match were scheduled in the day session.
In the exact same situation in which Rune found himself in the third set, I am convinced that a player with the characteristics and IQ of de Minaur would have been able to take advantage of it much better than what (did not) the Dane did.

 

[objection_]

Sinner in 4 if day, but it will probably be at night so sinner in 3

 

[Tennis_dude101]

The heart says AdM, the head say Sinner....

 

[chjtennis]

Di Minaur is a quality player and has that home crowd support, so he may win a set, but Sinner will win this one. Possibly in 3, but voted for Sinner in 4 just to respect Di Minaur.

 

[legcramp]

Sinner obviously didn't refill on his massage cream this year, adm in 4

 

[junior74]

It’s crazy cuz I don’t think Demon likes Sinner, while Monfils loves Novak

If H2H was about love, Novak would be 0-100 against Fedal

 

[tennisjedi]

Demon in 3 easy sets. He's way too fast and strong for Sinner. MTO's and broken nets will not help Sinner at all because Demon is a mental strength giant and he'll have the entire crowd supporting him. Sinner's entire body will shaking like crazy even before he enters RLA.

 

[ark_28]

Not really worth a thread this, Sinner will win handily

 

[Winner Sinner]

Sinner trained in the afternoon with his team, “I’m much better”

“How are you?”. “Much better”. Just two words collected by the reporters, perhaps enough to restore serenity on the conditions of Jannik Sinner after the illness he suffered yesterday, a health problem that risked compromising the performance of the Italian against Holger Rune in the round of 16 of the Australian Open. On Tuesday, Sinner showed up at Melbourne Park only in the middle of the afternoon for a training session that took place on court 8, away from the public and cameras. On the court were his team, Vagnozzi, Cahill, Badio and Panichi, and no other tennis players or sparring partners.
Jannik trained at a slow pace with his coaches, then increased the pace but without pushing too hard. A little work to test the body’s reaction and move but without consuming too much energy. As he left the field, the journalists present collected the two words of the Italian, who seemed serene and relaxed, like the entire mood of the team that accompanied him in training.

Yesterday Sinner had a difficult day: a bad awakening and the malaise (not better specified, perhaps a virus or something gastrointestinal, no other information has leaked out on the matter) that pushed him to consult the doctor before the match vs. Rune, and then the very evident suffering on the court that also led him to a Medical time out with exit to the locker room during the third set, the most difficult phase of the match. Luckily the n.1 managed to manage the situation and hold up, managing to win the match in four sets and qualify for the quarterfinals.

Sinner is expected tomorrow on the Rod Laver Arena at 9.30 Italian time against the best local tennis player, Alex De Minaur. There is still a whole day to recover energy and, hopefully, show up on the competitive court to land in the semifinals again in the first Slam of the season.

 

[Tallawah Tennis]

Di Minaur is a quality player and has that home crowd support, so he may win a set, but Sinner will win this one. Possibly in 3, but voted for Sinner in 4 just to respect Di Minaur.

Man, with Jannik across the net, home crowd support will most likely only take ADM so far. Good call - I second it.