2025 Australian Open R16 - [15] Jack Alexander Draper (GREAT BRITAIN) v/s [3] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN)

Win prediction poll


  • Total voters
    17
  • Poll closed .

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
H2H is 2-1 Alcaraz
HC H2H is 2-0 Alcaraz
This'll be their first slam match.

Draper did shock the tennis world by taking out the Queens+Wimbledon defending champion Alcaraz at the 2024 Queens open in R16.

Who wins? How many sets?
 
Bookies give Draper almost no chance at all, and the bookies are always upbeat on British players because the British betting market is larger than that of most other countries. That says it all, really. If Draper hadn't gone five sets in all three matches so far, he'd probably have a decent outside shot here, but his mediocre form and the amount of energy he's expended make it rather unlikely that he can do much here. He might have enough to win a set.

At least it's a first slam R3 and now a first slam R4 outside the US Open for Draper. (He's been to R3 or better at the US Open for three straight years and to R4 or better for the last two years. So, he was to date a US Open specialist and now makes himself a hard-court specialist).
 
Bookies give Draper almost no chance at all, and the bookies are always upbeat on British players because the British betting market is larger than that of most other countries. That says it all, really. If Draper hadn't gone five sets in all three matches so far, he'd probably have a decent outside shot here, but his mediocre form and the amount of energy he's expended make it rather unlikely that he can do much here. He might have enough to win a set.

At least it's a first slam R3 and now a first slam R4 outside the US Open for Draper. (He's been to R3 or better at the US Open for three straight years and to R4 or better for the last two years. So, he was to date a US Open specialist and now makes himself a hard-court specialist).
would be really surprised if draper had the gas to push this deep. think uso + wimbledon will be his best major surfaces...his stroke mechanics are better for lower bouncing courts in general. in general though he's making progress, good player.
 
These dips of Alcaraz are really annoying as an Alcaraz fan. He might be able to get away with this against the Drapers of the world but he's done in the quarters if he doesn't focus the entire match.
 
i think alcarez has ADD lol he gets ahead and loses interest/focus tommy paul going to finish before first set of this match
 
Hope he actually locks in and wins 2, 3 or something the next couple sets. He still has these mental walkabouts too much when he's good enough to just quickly dispatch his opponent.
 
Only Alcaraz could extend this first set to the twelfth game against an absolutely tense Draper.

This Alcaraz would go out badly with Djokovic, but I would also say with Lehecka.
Let's see if he now raises the level without giving away points to his opponent between double faults and a disproportionate amount of unforced errors.
 
Today the only thing that is working in Alcaraz is the quality of the response.

PS
Here now he has started to make some remarkable plays.
 
Story of his career, he loves making things hard on himself. Sounds weird to say that about a 4-time slam winner at 21 but it feels like he loses matches rather than opponents winning them
That's the nature of the beast for an aggressive player. The match is always on his racket. When the shots land he looks unstoppable. When they don't, it looks like him beating himself.
 
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That's the nature of the beast for an aggressive player. The match is always on his racket. When the shots land he looks unstoppable. When they don't, it looks like him beating himself.
Exactly this. Yet, for the rest of his career people will lament about his lack of discipline and unforced errors. Alcaraz can't play with his foot half on the brake pedal and play, for a lack of a better word, boring. That's not his game or his DNA. Once you accept his mercurial play, you accept that he will miss shots he shouldn't, but he will also make even more magical ones.
 
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