2025 Australian open SF - [7] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v/s [2] Alexander 'Sascha' Zverev (GER)

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The results for injured Djokovic (torn ab, torn hamstring) in previous years at the aus open have always been title wins. This year it's the groin injury where he said he'd have retired from the match if down 0-2 sets vs Alcaraz. But he will have to go through more difficult opponents in Zverev and especially Sinner.
 
Egg is developing a legit claim as GOAT of the post-FEDAL mug era, the weakest era in the history of tennis. I doubt the frail Carrot can stop Egg. Only Chainz can save tennis from this dark mug era.

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I had picked Djokovic to beat Alcaraz in 4 sets. Same as what the commentator had predicted as had many others.
But in this match, I'm going with Djokovic in 5 sets.
I think he will scrape through in a tough rugged match. He will grimace a lot during some endless agonizing rallies of course. He may call an MTO when Zverev has the momentum. I think Zverev, outside of the Tokyo Olympics, needs to show he's a big match player. He hasn't shown it yet. He needs to beat Djokovic in a best of 5 to get to the next level. Best of 5 is where it really counts. He's come close. As a matter of fact, he took all the juice out of Djokovic at USO 2021, allowing Medvedev to sweep up the scraps of Djokovic in the final in a fairly lopsided contest.
 
I'm going with Djokovic in a very tough 5 setter.
Zverev needs to have the right attitude to win this. Dig in for war and throw all respect to the side. Not sure he's got it in him.
Also, I believe Zverev would've beaten Alcaraz had they met here. Likely in 4 sets. Zverev hates Alcaraz and shows him little to no respect. But Zverev loves Djokovic a lot.
 
I'm taking Djoker in a comfortable 4 sets. The AO is Djoker's house. You don't believe me? I have proof. Listen to this:

 
Pheasant said:
I'm taking Djoker in a comfortable 4 sets. The AO is Djoker's house. You don't believe me? I have proof. Listen to this:

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I'm not sure I see comfortable as a suitable word. Djokovic and Zverev have brutalizing matches often. Including in majors. I believe if you put Djokovic's willpower and perserverance in Zverev, then Zverev would currently be on his 10th major today. Zverev needs to be a dog in there and show he's better than everyone. Talent wise, he's got everything. The focus and the confidence is lacking in the big moments.
 
Djoker will win a tough tiebreak in the 1st and then the floodgates will open and will route the Z man in set 2 and 3. He's firing on all cylinders now he's not losing more than a set to either Zverev or Sinner. Plus they have tons of intel on him Murray knows his game inside and out
 
Mike Sams said:
Alcaraz doesn't own Zverev. Look at their H2H. Zverev is leading. And he's beaten Alcaraz multiple times in majors including AO last year in the QF.
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So you are saying,, Alcarez dumped the match with novak on purpose due to the fear of facing sasha again.... ohhh i see it now.. but now will Sasha beat novak and claim his aussie title which is rightfully his
 
Djoker is injured, so he will need to pull something never seen before if he wants to beat a hungry for slam Zod.
 
It will be interesting to see how Djokovic will play if this is indeed a day session match.Under the lights i expect him to play well but playing in the afternoon it can all become pretty flat and it can turn into an ugly match.A bit like last year against Sinner.
 
I like Novak's chances. But he needs to serve better, since he probably won't get as many breaks as he did in the QF.
 
This tall guy said in his on-court interview today that he loves playing night matches in Australia, that he even requested the night match for his QF, that he doesn't like playing in the day, and he said this all before he had any clue who he would be facing in the semi-final, so I'd say his chances are probably minimal.
 
The Zedrot is IMHO the clear favorite in this one. He tries really hard to make a confident impression. The question is whether he chokes and crumbles already against Djokovic? Or do we have to wait for the final for his nervous breakdown? Heart hopes for Djokovic in 4, brain says Zedrot in 4 or 5.
 
Nostradamus said:
So you are saying,, Alcarez dumped the match with novak on purpose due to the fear of facing sasha again.... ohhh i see it now.. but now will Sasha beat novak and claim his aussie title which is rightfully his
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I'm not saying anything. All I said was that Zverev is not a pigeon for Alcraraz. And he's beaten Alcaraz in the majors several times on 2 different surfaces.
 
Zoids has a chance if he can turn the match into a grind-fest

And if he is hitting his spots on his serve he can make Djoko work. He has the best first serve of any top player and is among the top servers in the game period.

My prediction is Djoko takes the first set 6-4, starts playing possum when Zoids shows life in the second. Take an MTO sometime between the 5th game of the 2nd set and the end of the set. Lose the second, watch Zoids' live odds soar.

Start the third set blowing serves past Zverev, win the 3rd and 4th going away. 6-3, 6-1
 
Zverev will probably choke and not play aggressively.

Joker did all the hard work in taking out Alcaraz, so this should be fairly textbook

I'm going with the Joker / Murray team in
 
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Zverev hits just 0.7% backhand dropshots as compared to 4% for alcaraz.

Nole don't have to stay close to baseline at all. Take many steps back and defend defend defend. Fight like hell.

 
Their last challenge if I'm not mistaken was in the semifinal of Cincinnati 2023, but if we consider that Zverev was still in the convalescence phase, basically to find the last real challenge we have to go back to 2021.
In that final part of 2021 the two gave life to great battles between the Olympics, the US Open and the ATP Finals.

And this is what makes this matchup fascinating.
If we have learned to know the ones between Djokovic-Alcaraz and Djokovic-Sinner all too well in the last hard seasons, the one between Djokovic-Zverev has been so long that we have almost forgotten it.

A few days ago I saw the highlights of the 2021 Australian Open match, honestly I remembered a clearer victory for Djokovic, and instead he had many difficulties, the problem is that Zverev after winning the first set as usual melted like snow in the sun in the most important moments, but his level was not so far from the Serbian. Indeed, it can be said that in that specific edition he was the player who put him in most difficulty.
 
iriraz said:
It will be interesting to see how Djokovic will play if this is indeed a day session match.Under the lights i expect him to play well but playing in the afternoon it can all become pretty flat and it can turn into an ugly match.A bit like last year against Sinner.
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Won't be as hot as the Sinner match last year though. Will be much much cooler and cloudy this year.
 
If it had been a night time match then I would have definitely favoured Novak without a doubt.

However, it will be afternoon match which Novak very rarely plays at Aussie open and Zverev has.

I think the heat and court conditions including shadows on court and sunshine in eyes when serving and returning serve will all suit Sasha much better.

I see this as too close to call but can see case for either winning in 4 tough sets.
 
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