2025 Australian Open - Women's Discussion

Who will be WTA singles champion for the 2025 Australian Open?

  • Sabalenka

    Votes: 6 22.2%
  • Swiatek

    Votes: 3 11.1%
  • Gauff

    Votes: 12 44.4%
  • Paolini

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Zheng

    Votes: 1 3.7%
  • Rybakina

    Votes: 3 11.1%
  • Pegula

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Shnaider

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Andreeva

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 2 7.4%

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

insideguy

G.O.A.T.
Yikes, so the WTA was bad even then. When did she win the golden slam 88?
I have always maintained that in many respects winning a masters title for the top ladies is harder. Well at least until they have expanded it. You had to play much higher ranked people earlier, and play back to back matches with no days off. Ahh well.
 

D-Lite

Hall of Fame
Sabal
Aus Open SF's:

#1 Sabalenka v #11 Badosa

#19 Keys v #2 Swiatek

Please can we finally get #1 Sabalenka v #2 Swiatek slam final!

Come on ladies!
I have serious concerns about the level Badosa and Keys can bring to the final. There's a chance their form doesn't dip in the SF as they are the underdogs, but both are well known to be on hot streaks at majors and then duck out with a scarily contrasting poor performance.
Keys has played Sabalenka many a time and pushed her hard at the USO SF in 2023. Badosa and Swiatek have only played twice, both in 2021. Interestingly Swiatek and Keys are 1-1 on HC but Swiatek owns the overall H2H. I really want to see Sabalenka v Swiatek in a major final. They have been #1 and #2 for some time now and whoever wins the title will be the #1. That's a great story for women's tennis and it would mean they play a major final before Sinner and Alcaraz do which is cool. I wouldn't hate a Keys or Badosa major win but I'd hope it's over the #1 or #2 to cement the result.
 

insideguy

G.O.A.T.
Sabal

I have serious concerns about the level Badosa and Keys can bring to the final. There's a chance their form doesn't dip in the SF as they are the underdogs, but both are well known to be on hot streaks at majors and then duck out with a scarily contrasting poor performance.
Keys has played Sabalenka many a time and pushed her hard at the USO SF in 2023. Badosa and Swiatek have only played twice, both in 2021. Interestingly Swiatek and Keys are 1-1 on HC but Swiatek owns the overall H2H. I really want to see Sabalenka v Swiatek in a major final. They have been #1 and #2 for some time now and whoever wins the title will be the #1. That's a great story for women's tennis and it would mean they play a major final before Sinner and Alcaraz do which is cool. I wouldn't hate a Keys or Badosa major win but I'd hope it's over the #1 or #2 to cement the result.
Yes I would have to do some research and I like Keys. But when she goes out after one of these slam streaks she goes out hard. At least from what I remember. Maybe some TTW expert could give me one loss late in a tournament where she was competitive. But she will play really well, and then spin off into oblivion.
 

Lauren_Girl'

Hall of Fame
What's going on with Swiatek? I'm not really following women's matches but I'm shocked to see the scores of her matches. 7 games dropped in her last 4 matches, this is even less than her French Open 2020. Wow.
But then, Raducanu is the shadow of herself since that USO21 run. Lys was a Lucky Loser. Navarro was exhausted. Maybe it explains why she is winning so fast.
Difference of level should be brutal now, with Keys and Sabalenka (same profiles as Collins and Rybakina, who beat her there in 2022 and 2023). Plus she's played most of her matches in hot day sessions, conditions she loves. Facing Keys and Sabalenka in night conditions will be another story. I always thought she'd never win the AO... Let's see.
 

robyrolfo

Hall of Fame
Sorry everyone, I had a lot to catch up on. My reactions below...

...Coco's forehand has shown plenty of promise in the last few weeks. I suspect she just hasn't fully ingrained whatever changes she tried to make in the offseason. If she loses here, she just gets some more practice time to work it out. No worries. Either one winning is fine by me.
People kept saying her forehand was better, and isn't an issue now... and yet it was shaky for the entire AO, and completely fell apart at the first sign of real pressure. It's still a below average shot.

Her biggest issue is between the ears, which in turn bleeds into her technique.

this is what happens when you fire brad gilbert
Yep, everyone talking trash about Brad after they parted ways, and now we see this result.

Gauff exposed again. Can’t handle the slam big stages
She's had such incredibly easy draws in the past few slams, so it was bound to catch up to her sooner or later.

Last year she absolutely should have lost to Kostyuk, but Marta choked hard (as she is prone to doing).

I feel for Rybakina but Vukov is a freak who needs to stay away from her but you can only help someone who wants to be helped.
What exactly happened with him? Why are you calling him a freak? Genuine question.

On another note, Coco wears the sharpest kits on the women's tour, imo. New Balance really works for her.
What? It looked like she was wearing a bathing suit top with a tennis skirt. It was strange.

Lotto consistently put out the best women's kits (men's too, actually), and Siniakova wears them very, very well.

Sinner‘s run is almost identical to Raducanu‘s US open. No decent player on the way until SF and then probably tiered Badosa in the final.
Huh? Assuming you meant Swiatek, but even if you are talking about Sinner, he and Iga are very high seeds. The reward for being highly ranked is generally an easier draw due to seeding. Raducanu was just ridiculously lucky.

Graf's 1989 AO competition was actually weaker than Swiatek's current run. Graf started off by playing Kerry Anne Guse who had no ranking at all, so not even a top 1000 player. From there, Graf played #95, #113, #32, and #12 to reach the semis for an average rank of #63, not counting the unranked player. Swiatek has played #50, #49, #61, #128, and #8 for an average rank of #59 in the competition.

EDIT: Just checked Graf's run in 1988 and the average rank of her competition through the quarterfinals was an even far weaker #85.
Ok, that may be the case, but maybe the #50 player back then was better than the #50 player now? Perhaps not purely on skill, but mentally?

All I know is that Graf would easily beat Swiatek in straights. Same for the rest of the current tour.
 

THUNDERVOLLEY

G.O.A.T.
All I know is that Graf would easily beat Swiatek in straights.

Undoubtedly. There's not a single part of Swiatek's game superior or even challenging to Graf's by any stretch of the imagination. A match between the two would be a great teacher (Graf, obviously) having to take baby steps with a child stepping on a court for the first time.
 

bluetrain4

G.O.A.T.
I REALLY wish one women's SF was in the afternoon. I completely understand, it's more fair if they're closer together, and it's the AO - geared towards the Australian audience. So, I don't expect the AO to schedule for my American benefit. But, man it would be nice to have some tennis earlier tonight, even starting at, say, 10:30 pm.
 

robyrolfo

Hall of Fame
I REALLY wish one women's SF was in the afternoon. I completely understand, it's more fair if they're closer together, and it's the AO - geared towards the Australian audience. So, I don't expect the AO to schedule for my American benefit. But, man it would be nice to have some tennis early tonight, even starting at, say, 10:30 pm.
Totally agree. It's been so nice to be able to turn on a live match after dinner/putting the kid to bed, and just enjoy and evening of grand slam tennis. Now, suddenly, it's gone!
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Speaks to how bad the gap is on the WTA, because Raducanu won a major, yet got dispatched that badly…
Raducanu was a fluke, we knew it at the time, we know it now. She’s battled injuries but she had the easiest slam draw at that 2021 US Open.

Also, there were times when Nadal and Fed and Djokovic thrashed eachother and fellow slam champs and that was when they were at their peak. I wouldn’t speak to the gap on the WTA for Iga feeding bakery products to a has been which is what she does best.
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
As much as I would like to see Keys win, she's just not consistent enough vs. Iga's current form and her court movement won't be adequate for what awaits her.
Playoffs?! I think Keys just wants to win a few games, more more than Navarro and certainly more that Raducanu and Lys who were totally annihilated.
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
Raducanu was a fluke, we knew it at the time, we know it now. She’s battled injuries but she had the easiest slam draw at that 2021 US Open.

Also, there were times when Nadal and Fed and Djokovic thrashed eachother and fellow slam champs and that was when they were at their peak. I wouldn’t speak to the gap on the WTA for Iga feeding bakery products to a has been which is what she does best.
Well i meant her run as a whole. Navarro lost 1 & 2 last night. We’ll see how it goes for Madi Keys
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Well i meant her run as a whole. Navarro lost 1 & 2 last night. We’ll see how it goes for Madi Keys
Score looks bad but it was more to it. A hard fought match that went 1 hour and 31 minutes. Keys/Svitolina went only 23 more minutes but a 3 setter where Elina won 13 games all up. Iga just likes keeping people with minimal games.
 

bluetrain4

G.O.A.T.
Keys technically has the game (hard and flat) to make it a match vs Iga with an outside chance of winning if she plays very well. But, it's such a tall order. I know Keys has lost some big matches over the years by having terrible streaks of UEs. But, she really shouldn't worry about that. She just needs to go big and blast away for the most part. Not EVERY shot - she has been better at working in some higher-margin rally balls, which is important, and she shouldn't go for super-out-of-position winners. But, she's not going to out-grind Iga or out-construct her. So she simply has to just hit hard and flat, get on top of the point early, and hope she's having a higher percentage day. Plus serve well.
 

insideguy

G.O.A.T.
Keys technically has the game (hard and flat) to make it a match vs Iga with an outside chance of winning if she plays very well. But, it's such a tall order. I know Keys has lost some big matches over the years by having terrible streaks of UEs. But, she really shouldn't worry about that. She just needs to go big and blast away for the most part. Not EVERY shot - she has been better at working in some higher-margin rally balls, which is important, and she shouldn't go for super-out-of-position winners. But, she's not going to out-grind Iga or out-construct her. So she simply has to just hit hard and flat, get on top of the point early, and hope she's having a higher percentage day. Plus serve well.
In reality she has always had the game to beat anyone. But she's never been able to do it for 7 straight matches.
 

zvelf

Hall of Fame
Yikes, so the WTA was bad even then. When did she win the golden slam 88?
This is a strange conclusion to make. In the early rounds of a slam as a top seed, you'll always get an assortment of lower-ranked players by the very nature of the draw. You can't know how good the tour is based on a few random draws.

What's going on with Swiatek? I'm not really following women's matches but I'm shocked to see the scores of her matches. 7 games dropped in her last 4 matches, this is even less than her French Open 2020. Wow.
But then, Raducanu is the shadow of herself since that USO21 run. Lys was a Lucky Loser. Navarro was exhausted. Maybe it explains why she is winning so fast.
Difference of level should be brutal now, with Keys and Sabalenka (same profiles as Collins and Rybakina, who beat her there in 2022 and 2023). Plus she's played most of her matches in hot day sessions, conditions she loves. Facing Keys and Sabalenka in night conditions will be another story. I always thought she'd never win the AO... Let's see.
What's going on with Swiatek is that she got a new coach who has made some adjustments to her game, and so far, that looks like it's working. Night conditions should actually favor Swiatek a bit more against Keys and Sabalenka as cool temperatures slow the ball down to make it closer to clay conditions.

Ok, that may be the case, but maybe the #50 player back then was better than the #50 player now? Perhaps not purely on skill, but mentally?

All I know is that Graf would easily beat Swiatek in straights. Same for the rest of the current tour.
Given how frequently records across sports are broken, athletes generally improve physically over time given advances in nutrition and sports science, a 2025 #50 player is highly likely to be better than a 1989 #50 player, at least in speed and stamina. Variations in mental game differ greatly from player to player so I don't think that's measurable or fruitful to speculate across the entire tour. Graf probably would beat Swiatek soundly on grass and hard court but not on clay where Swiatek would win her share.

Keys technically has the game (hard and flat) to make it a match vs Iga with an outside chance of winning if she plays very well. But, it's such a tall order. I know Keys has lost some big matches over the years by having terrible streaks of UEs. But, she really shouldn't worry about that. She just needs to go big and blast away for the most part. Not EVERY shot - she has been better at working in some higher-margin rally balls, which is important, and she shouldn't go for super-out-of-position winners. But, she's not going to out-grind Iga or out-construct her. So she simply has to just hit hard and flat, get on top of the point early, and hope she's having a higher percentage day. Plus serve well.
This is a good analysis. As one of the hardest hitters on tour, Keys definitely can win if she gets in the zone and powers her way past Swiatek. The question is how long she can sustain that power game without it collapsing into a lot of unforced errors.
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
I love Badosa, and would be happy for Madi, but Iga and Sabs really is the dream final. Muchova magnificently kept it from happening at Roland Garros 2 years ago. Will someone spoil the party this time too?
You’re a bigger man than me lol. Sabalenka vs Iga would be the more epic final but i still want Badosa to beat Sabalenka :happydevil:
 
once upon a time
Sharapova%20Ivanovic-715x471.jpg
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Score looks bad but it was more to it. A hard fought match that went 1 hour and 31 minutes. Keys/Svitolina went only 23 more minutes but a 3 setter where Elina won 13 games all up. Iga just likes keeping people with minimal games.
Iga was ruthless. Wouldnt even give up a double-bounce in a 1&2 match :-D
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
Sabalenka gamestyle gets on my nerves, she goes full out in every shot and when a couple go into the net she makes the surprised face
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
rooting for badosa
but my brain says it's going to be sabalenka
rooting for keys
but my brain says it's going to be iga
It’s going to take something mighty to beat IGA but Keys is hitting such a huge ball, so there is a chance.

I really hope it’s an open match but my fear is that IGA will play lockdown tennis and Keys will overpress and just start spraying errors everywhere. Keys has added more margin and net clearance so far this year, though. It feels like she has an extra safeguard.
 
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