2025 Roland Garros SF - [2] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN) v/s [08] Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)

Win prediction poll - vote here

  • Total voters
    69
  • Poll closed .
Rafa4LifeEver

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
H2H - Alcaraz leads 5-1

Clay H2H - Alcaraz leads 3-1

Slam H2H - Alcaraz leads 1-0

Last match - 2025 Rome open ATP M1000 SF, Alcaraz def. Musetti 63 76(4)

Last clay match - the same as above

Last slam match - 2023 Roland Garros R16, Alcaraz def. Musetti 63 62 62

Alcaraz's latest win over Musetti - Rome 2025 QF

Musetti's latest win over Alcaraz - 2022 Hamburg open ATP 500 final, def. Alcaraz 64 67(6) 64; which is also the Italian's only ever win against Alcaraz.

In this tournament so far -
After having three back to back four setters against Marozsan, Dzumhur and Shelton from R64 to R16, Alcaraz defeated (a somewhat ailing) Tommy Paul in straight sets, 60 61 64 in the QF.
Musetti on the other hand has defeated Navone, Rune & Tiafoe; all in 4 sets after a couple of straight set wins to start his campaign.

Defending champion Alcaraz is into his 3rd consecutive RG SF, while its the first RG SF for Italian #2 Musetti who's been having a pretty succesful clay season so far, having made a SF or better at all of the M1000s on clay for the first time in his career (the first player to do so since Tsitsipas & Zverev in 2022).

Who wins? How many sets? Discuss & vote.
 
Last edited:
Rafa4LifeEver said:
It all depends upon which version of Alcaraz turns up.
Musetti's consistent pushing can make Alcaraz go nuts & spray wildly.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Musetti has pushed Alcaraz on clay in different ways. In the two losses this year he took a set in one and took a set to a TB in the other. Not a stretch to imagine him taking a set here. He doesn't seem as nervous and prone to frustration as in previous years. But Alcaraz is a different dude.

Now on the other side of the coin, has Alcaraz faced anyone as good as Musetti on clay this year? I don't think so.
 
Rosstour said:
Yeah, Musetti has pushed Alcaraz on clay in different ways. In the two losses this year he took a set in one and took a set to a TB in the other. Not a stretch to imagine him taking a set here. He doesn't seem as nervous and prone to frustration as in previous years. But Alcaraz is a different dude.

Now on the other side of the coin, has Alcaraz faced anyone as good as Musetti on clay this year? I don't think so.
Click to expand...

Umm Sinner????
 
I hope Musetti can show some sparks of brilliance and hit first serves. Raz is going to attack his seconds from well within the court and probably reach every half baked dropshot with ease. Moose in 5.
 
Carlos in 3. He probably still feels the spanking Ferrero gave him after losing his concentration in the Shelton match.

Edit

Stupid phone autocorrect
 
Last edited:
Rosstour said:
Yeah, Musetti has pushed Alcaraz on clay in different ways. In the two losses this year he took a set in one and took a set to a TB in the other. Not a stretch to imagine him taking a set here. He doesn't seem as nervous and prone to frustration as in previous years. But Alcaraz is a different dude.

Now on the other side of the coin, has Alcaraz faced anyone as good as Musetti on clay this year? I don't think so.
Click to expand...
Most of these Slamless guys play worse at the Slams than at the non-Slams, while Alcaraz tends to play his best tennis at Slams.
Even more so in the Semis and Finals of Slams, as the Slamless guys get nervous, while Alcaraz says "The finals is not about playing, it's about winning".
And then there is the unknown - the potential - because supposedly neither player has reached their prime yet.
They both clearly have a lot to learn, so if one unlucks some of that untapped potential, then a beatdown is very possible.
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
H2H - Alcaraz leads 5-1

Clay H2H - Alcaraz leads 3-1

Slam H2H - Alcaraz leads 1-0

Last match - 2025 Rome open ATP M1000 SF, Alcaraz def. Musetti 63 76(4)

Last clay match - the same as above

Last slam match - 2023 Roland Garros R16, Alcaraz def. Musetti 63 62 62

Alcaraz's latest win over Musetti - Rome 2025 QF

Musetti's latest win over Alcaraz - 2022 Hamburg open ATP 500 final, def. Alcaraz 64 67(6) 64; which is also the Italian's only ever win against Alcaraz.

In this tournament so far -
After having three back to back four setters against Marozsan, Dzumhur and Shelton from R64 to R16, Alcaraz defeated (a somewhat ailing) Tommy Paul in straight sets, 60 61 64 in the QF.
Musetti on the other hand has defeated Navone, Rune & Tiafoe; all in 4 sets after a couple of straight set wins to start his campaign.

Defending champion Alcaraz is into his 3rd consecutive RG SF, while its the first RG SF for Italian #2 Musetti who's been having a pretty succesful clay season so far, having made a SF or better at all of the M1000s on clay for the first time in his career (the first player to do so since Tsitsipas & Zverev in 2022).

Who wins? How many sets? Discuss & vote.
Click to expand...
I’m going Musetti in 5. Alcaraz’s second 5th set loss.
 
Rosstour said:
Yeah, Musetti has pushed Alcaraz on clay in different ways. In the two losses this year he took a set in one and took a set to a TB in the other. Not a stretch to imagine him taking a set here. He doesn't seem as nervous and prone to frustration as in previous years. But Alcaraz is a different dude.

Now on the other side of the coin, has Alcaraz faced anyone as good as Musetti on clay this year? I don't think so.
Click to expand...
I mean, he played Musetti on clay earlier this year and beat him. Maybe Sinner as well.
 
ALCARAZWON said:
Most of these Slamless guys play worse at the Slams than at the non-Slams, while Alcaraz tends to play his best tennis at Slams.
Even more so in the Semis and Finals of Slams, as the Slamless guys get nervous, while Alcaraz says "The finals is not about playing, it's about winning".
And then there is the unknown - the potential - because supposedly neither player has reached their prime yet.
They both clearly have a lot to learn, so if one unlucks some of that untapped potential, then a beatdown is very possible.
Click to expand...
Not Ruud, he just plays worse in the slam finals.
 
I have a feeling that Alcaraz’s won’t have that throw-away set that he’s used to. His level will remain consistent throughout the match.

Alcaraz will win in straight sets with a breadstick thrown in there.

Alcaraz wins 6-4, 6-1, 6-3
 
Pheasant said:
I have a feeling that Alcaraz’s won’t have that throw-away set that he’s used to. His level will remain consistent throughout the match.

Alcaraz will win in straight sets with a breadstick thrown in there.

Alcaraz wins 6-4, 6-1, 6-3
Click to expand...
He does tend to play better with less ups and downs against better players, so I could see that happening.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1930031579968999787

In the Spanish part of the #RolandGarros QF press conference, Carlos Alcaraz was asked whether, after the level he showed today, Lorenzo Musetti might seem like a more “manageable” opponent in the semifinal on Friday.

❔ “Is Musetti manageable after today’s performance? You might even scare him a little, no?”

Carlos Alcaraz: “Musetti, manageable? In the end, he’s ranked number 7 in the world—number 6 now, I think.

“He’s joined a select group of players who’ve at least reached the semifinals of all the big clay tournaments. I think only four have done that so far. That shows you the level he’s playing at—the confidence he has.

“I watched his match, and honestly, the level was really high. So no—he’s not “manageable” at all. I’m going to have to show this same level if I want a chance. But I’ll try to enjoy it. And obviously, it’s going to be a great battle.”
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
H2H - Alcaraz leads 5-1

Clay H2H - Alcaraz leads 3-1

Slam H2H - Alcaraz leads 1-0

Last match - 2025 Rome open ATP M1000 SF, Alcaraz def. Musetti 63 76(4)

Last clay match - the same as above

Last slam match - 2023 Roland Garros R16, Alcaraz def. Musetti 63 62 62

Alcaraz's latest win over Musetti - Rome 2025 QF

Musetti's latest win over Alcaraz - 2022 Hamburg open ATP 500 final, def. Alcaraz 64 67(6) 64; which is also the Italian's only ever win against Alcaraz.

In this tournament so far -
After having three back to back four setters against Marozsan, Dzumhur and Shelton from R64 to R16, Alcaraz defeated (a somewhat ailing) Tommy Paul in straight sets, 60 61 64 in the QF.
Musetti on the other hand has defeated Navone, Rune & Tiafoe; all in 4 sets after a couple of straight set wins to start his campaign.

Defending champion Alcaraz is into his 3rd consecutive RG SF, while its the first RG SF for Italian #2 Musetti who's been having a pretty succesful clay season so far, having made a SF or better at all of the M1000s on clay for the first time in his career (the first player to do so since Tsitsipas & Zverev in 2022).

Who wins? How many sets? Discuss & vote.
Click to expand...
Alcaraz will win in straight sets
 
Rosstour said:
Has Sinner had a better clay season this year than Musetti? I don't see how
Click to expand...

If sinner had played more tournaments then he would have a better clay season. The level that sinner has shown through Rome and through Roland Garros so far is something few players ever even dream of getting to.

The match is entirely on Carlitos's racket.

MHI said:
People are underrating Musetti.

He is ON it.
Click to expand...

I don't think they are--they are just giving Carlitos the respect that he has earned so far this season and going back a few seasons. I don't think there's any real consistent way that Lorenzo can hurt him enough to have any path to victory.

Lorenzo at a +6.5 games handicap is -105 which would be a good bet if you think Lorenzo is being slept on.
 
Last edited:
ghostofMecir said:
If sinner had played more tournaments then he would have a better clay season.
Click to expand...

How can we say that when he has one clay 250 to his name from 2022? I'm not saying he can't do anything on clay of note, but he really hasn't, to date. Musetti has literally done more on clay this year and thru their careers. Maybe Sinner is "better" on clay right now but we don't know until they play. So I'm not giving Sinner a big edge in his SF and in fact I picked Djoko to win
 
RSJfan said:
LM probability of winning. 0%. :giggle:
Click to expand...

Leading into RG he was one of 4 players to even take a set off Carlos on clay. He has a chance, even Carlos said this--the guy is a top 10 player and is one of how many players ever to make the SF of every big clay event?

Aside from Djoko or Sinner, I'm not sure who would have a better chance?
 
One for the purists. If both guys bring it this will some of the best tennis we see all year.

Not going to make a prediction as I'm slightly concerned about jinxing certain aspects for Sinner this far into the second week.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Rafa4LifeEver
  • Poll Poll
2025 Roland Garros QF - [2] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN) v/s [12] Thomas John Robert Paul (USA)
8 9 10
Replies
454
Views
15K
sportsfan1
S
Rafa4LifeEver
  • Poll Poll
2025 Wimbledon R32 - [2] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN) v/s Jan-Lennard Struff (GER)
7 8 9
Replies
434
Views
9K
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Rafa4LifeEver
  • Poll Poll
2025 Wimbledon QF - [2] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN) v/s Cameron Norrie (Great Britain)
8 9 10
Replies
483
Views
14K
Tallawah Tennis
T
Rafa4LifeEver
  • Poll Poll
2025 Indian wells ATP master's 1000 SF - (2) Carlos Alcaraz Garfia [SPN] v/s (13) Jack Draper [Great Britain]
2 3 4
Replies
155
Views
7K
Rovesciarete
Rovesciarete
Rafa4LifeEver
  • Poll Poll
2025 Rotterdam ATP 500 Open SF - [1] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN) v/s [8] Hubert Hurkacz (POL)
2
Replies
88
Views
3K
Pheasant
Pheasant
Back
Top