2025 Sinner has an unprecedented 1.50+ Dominance Ratio

For those who don’t know, Dominance Ratio is a single number that tells you how much a player controlled a match. It’s calculated as: {Percentage of return points won}/{Percentage of service points lost}
So, it compares how effective you were when returning with how safe you were on serve.

We have points data available since the 1991 season. The very highest dominance ratios have been between 1.38 and 1.44. The more matches you play, the more difficult it is to maintain a very high dominance ratio (in general). Sinner has only played 60 matches this season, so it takes a bit of the luster off of what he has done, but 1.50+ DR is an absolutely wild number.

Season Dominance Ratios (1991–2025)

1.51 2025 Sinner (64matches played)


1.44, 2019 Nadal (69 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.42, 2015 Djokovic (89 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Federer (60 matches played)
1.42, 2013 Djokovic (84 matches played)
1.41, 2015 Federer (74 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (97 matches played)
1.40, 2004 Federer (81 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (96 matches played)
1.39, 2019 Djokovic (65 matches played)
1.38, 2005 Federer (85 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Djokovic (79 matches played)
1.38, 2007 Federer (78 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Federer (76 matches played)
1.38, 1997 Sampras (69 matches played)
1.38, 2019 Federer (68 matches played)
1.38, 2021 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.37, 2022 Djokovic (87 matches played)
1.37, 2014 Djokovic (73 matches played)
1.37, 2018 Federer (61 matches played)
1.36, 2023 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.35, 2008 Nadal (88 matches played)
1.35, 2010 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.35, 1999 Agassi (77 matches played)

Other seasons by slam champions, ATP #1s, and others
1.33, 2021 Medvedev (76 matches played)
1.32, 2005 Roddick (74 matches played)
1.32, 2025 Alcaraz (75 matches played)
1.31, 1991 Edberg (93 matches played)
1.31, 1997 Krajicek (69 matches played)
1.30 , 1998 Rios (87 matches played)
1.29, 2016 Sir Murray (89 matches played)
1.27, 2024 Zverev (88 matches played)
1.26, 1992 Courier (88 matches played)
1.26, 1998 Rafter (81 matches played)
1.26, 1995 Chang (84 matches played)
1.25, 1992 Goran (75 matches played)
1.22, 2001 Hewitt (98 matches played)
1.21, 1991 Becker (62 matches played)
1.20, 2003 JCF (88 matches played)
1.18, 1992 Stich (68 matches played)
1.15, 2004 Moya (79 matches played)
1.14, 2002 Safin (82 matches played)
1.14, 1996 Kafelnikov (106 matches played)

@Gizo @Moose Malloy @Rovesciarete
 
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For those who don’t know, Dominance Ratio is a single number that tells you how much a player controlled a match. It’s calculated as: {Percentage of return points won}/{Percentage of service points lost}
So, it compares how effective you were when returning with how safe you were on serve.

We have points data available since the 1991 season. The very highest dominance ratios have been between 1.38 and 1.44. The more matches you play, the more difficult it is to maintain a very high dominance ratio (in general). Sinner has only played 60 matches this season, so it takes a bit of the luster off of what he has done, but 1.50+ DR is an absolutely wild number.

Season Dominance Ratios (1991–2025)

1.52, 2025 Sinner (60 matches played)


1.44, 2019 Nadal (69 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.42, 2015 Djokovic (89 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Federer (60 matches played)
1.42, 2013 Djokovic (84 matches played)
1.41, 2015 Federer (74 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (97 matches played)
1.40, 2004 Federer (81 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (96 matches played)
1.39, 2019 Djokovic (65 matches played)
1.38, 2005 Federer (85 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Djokovic (79 matches played)
1.38, 2007 Federer (78 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Federer (76 matches played)
1.38, 1997 Sampras (69 matches played)
1.38, 2019 Federer (68 matches played)
1.38, 2021 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.37, 2022 Djokovic (87 matches played)
1.37, 2014 Djokovic (73 matches played)
1.37, 2018 Federer (61 matches played)
1.36, 2023 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.35, 2008 Nadal (88 matches played)
1.35, 2010 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.35, 1999 Agassi (77 matches played)

Other seasons by slam champions and ATP #1s
1.33, 2021 Medvedev (76 matches played)
1.32, 2005 Roddick (74 matches played)
1.32, 2025 Alcaraz (75 matches played)
1.31, 1991 Edberg (93 matches played)
1.31, 1997 Krajicek (69 matches played)
1.30 , 1998 Rios (87 matches played)
1.29, 2016 Sir Murray (89 matches played)
1.27, 2024 Zverev (88 matches played)
1.26, 1992 Courier (88 matches played)
1.26, 1998 Rafter (81 matches played)
1.26, 1995 Chang (84 matches played)
1.25, 1992 Goran (75 matches played)
1.22, 2001 Hewitt (98 matches played)
1.21, 1991 Becker (62 matches played)
1.20, 2003 JCF (88 matches played)
1.18, 1992 Stich (68 matches played)
1.15, 2004 Moya (79 matches played)
1.14, 2002 Safin (82 matches played)
1.14, 1996 Kafelnikov (106 matches played)

@Gizo @Moose Malloy @Rovesciarete
Zverev is not a slam champion nor an Atp number one.
 
For those who don’t know, Dominance Ratio is a single number that tells you how much a player controlled a match. It’s calculated as: {Percentage of return points won}/{Percentage of service points lost}
So, it compares how effective you were when returning with how safe you were on serve.

We have points data available since the 1991 season. The very highest dominance ratios have been between 1.38 and 1.44. The more matches you play, the more difficult it is to maintain a very high dominance ratio (in general). Sinner has only played 60 matches this season, so it takes a bit of the luster off of what he has done, but 1.50+ DR is an absolutely wild number.

Excellent stuff. A quick court in Turin should make it very hard to sustain the 1.50…
 
Right after Sinner's match ended, I heard talk about the service points he dropped.
It was only in the single digits.

And he's also the best returner on tour.
No wonder he got those numbers.
 
For those who don’t know, Dominance Ratio is a single number that tells you how much a player controlled a match. It’s calculated as: {Percentage of return points won}/{Percentage of service points lost}
So, it compares how effective you were when returning with how safe you were on serve.

Thank you for the explanation because I thought I was some kind of S&M thing.
 
Let’s take a look at Sinner’s return points won at Paris vs his opponents’ return points won by match, starting with the earliest round first

30-12
33-14
23-8
30-7
23-10
Total, return points win
Sinner 139
Opponents 41

Sinner won 3.39 times more return points at Paris than his opponents did. This was also the first time somebody won a Masters event without dropping a set since Alcaraz did it at Indian Wells in 2023.
 
Let’s take a look at Sinner’s return points won at Paris vs his opponents’ return points won by match, starting with the earliest round first

30-12
33-14
23-8
30-7
23-10
Total, return points win
Sinner 139
Opponents 41

Sinner won 3.39 times more return points at Paris than his opponents did. This was also the first time somebody won a Masters event without dropping a set since Alcaraz did it at Indian Wells in 2023.
These are beyond wild numbers. The competiton is…not good, but even then doing this to tour level players is basically unheard of.
 
For those who don’t know, Dominance Ratio is a single number that tells you how much a player controlled a match. It’s calculated as: {Percentage of return points won}/{Percentage of service points lost}
So, it compares how effective you were when returning with how safe you were on serve.

We have points data available since the 1991 season. The very highest dominance ratios have been between 1.38 and 1.44. The more matches you play, the more difficult it is to maintain a very high dominance ratio (in general). Sinner has only played 60 matches this season, so it takes a bit of the luster off of what he has done, but 1.50+ DR is an absolutely wild number.

Season Dominance Ratios (1991–2025)

1.52, 2025 Sinner (60 matches played)


1.44, 2019 Nadal (69 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.42, 2015 Djokovic (89 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Federer (60 matches played)
1.42, 2013 Djokovic (84 matches played)
1.41, 2015 Federer (74 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (97 matches played)
1.40, 2004 Federer (81 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (96 matches played)
1.39, 2019 Djokovic (65 matches played)
1.38, 2005 Federer (85 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Djokovic (79 matches played)
1.38, 2007 Federer (78 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Federer (76 matches played)
1.38, 1997 Sampras (69 matches played)
1.38, 2019 Federer (68 matches played)
1.38, 2021 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.37, 2022 Djokovic (87 matches played)
1.37, 2014 Djokovic (73 matches played)
1.37, 2018 Federer (61 matches played)
1.36, 2023 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.35, 2008 Nadal (88 matches played)
1.35, 2010 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.35, 1999 Agassi (77 matches played)

Other seasons by slam champions, ATP #1s, and others
1.33, 2021 Medvedev (76 matches played)
1.32, 2005 Roddick (74 matches played)
1.32, 2025 Alcaraz (75 matches played)
1.31, 1991 Edberg (93 matches played)
1.31, 1997 Krajicek (69 matches played)
1.30 , 1998 Rios (87 matches played)
1.29, 2016 Sir Murray (89 matches played)
1.27, 2024 Zverev (88 matches played)
1.26, 1992 Courier (88 matches played)
1.26, 1998 Rafter (81 matches played)
1.26, 1995 Chang (84 matches played)
1.25, 1992 Goran (75 matches played)
1.22, 2001 Hewitt (98 matches played)
1.21, 1991 Becker (62 matches played)
1.20, 2003 JCF (88 matches played)
1.18, 1992 Stich (68 matches played)
1.15, 2004 Moya (79 matches played)
1.14, 2002 Safin (82 matches played)
1.14, 1996 Kafelnikov (106 matches played)

@Gizo @Moose Malloy @Rovesciarete
What was the ratio for his 2024 season?
 
Sinner's level in the US Open was extraordinarily high, Alcaraz's was just that much higher, by historical standards and dominance ratio.
 
1.52 against who? The Sheltons and de Minaurs?

Dude's 1-7 against the only other player that matters. This dominance ratio has a "will you like me now?" kind of vibe. How about he does 1.35, but actually beats Alcaraz for once? A lot of people would be way more impressed, right now Sinner is a master mug beater.
 
For those who don’t know, Dominance Ratio is a single number that tells you how much a player controlled a match. It’s calculated as: {Percentage of return points won}/{Percentage of service points lost}
So, it compares how effective you were when returning with how safe you were on serve.

We have points data available since the 1991 season. The very highest dominance ratios have been between 1.38 and 1.44. The more matches you play, the more difficult it is to maintain a very high dominance ratio (in general). Sinner has only played 60 matches this season, so it takes a bit of the luster off of what he has done, but 1.50+ DR is an absolutely wild number.

Season Dominance Ratios (1991–2025)

1.52, 2025 Sinner (60 matches played)


1.44, 2019 Nadal (69 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.42, 2015 Djokovic (89 matches played)
1.42, 2017 Federer (60 matches played)
1.42, 2013 Djokovic (84 matches played)
1.41, 2015 Federer (74 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (97 matches played)
1.40, 2004 Federer (81 matches played)
1.40, 2006 Federer (96 matches played)
1.39, 2019 Djokovic (65 matches played)
1.38, 2005 Federer (85 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Djokovic (79 matches played)
1.38, 2007 Federer (78 matches played)
1.38, 2011 Federer (76 matches played)
1.38, 1997 Sampras (69 matches played)
1.38, 2019 Federer (68 matches played)
1.38, 2021 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.37, 2022 Djokovic (87 matches played)
1.37, 2014 Djokovic (73 matches played)
1.37, 2018 Federer (61 matches played)
1.36, 2023 Djokovic (63 matches played)
1.35, 2008 Nadal (88 matches played)
1.35, 2010 Nadal (81 matches played)
1.35, 1999 Agassi (77 matches played)

Other seasons by slam champions, ATP #1s, and others
1.33, 2021 Medvedev (76 matches played)
1.32, 2005 Roddick (74 matches played)
1.32, 2025 Alcaraz (75 matches played)
1.31, 1991 Edberg (93 matches played)
1.31, 1997 Krajicek (69 matches played)
1.30 , 1998 Rios (87 matches played)
1.29, 2016 Sir Murray (89 matches played)
1.27, 2024 Zverev (88 matches played)
1.26, 1992 Courier (88 matches played)
1.26, 1998 Rafter (81 matches played)
1.26, 1995 Chang (84 matches played)
1.25, 1992 Goran (75 matches played)
1.22, 2001 Hewitt (98 matches played)
1.21, 1991 Becker (62 matches played)
1.20, 2003 JCF (88 matches played)
1.18, 1992 Stich (68 matches played)
1.15, 2004 Moya (79 matches played)
1.14, 2002 Safin (82 matches played)
1.14, 1996 Kafelnikov (106 matches played)

@Gizo @Moose Malloy @Rovesciarete
Looks like another one of those useless stats. I can invent others just on a whim:
1) Wack-it-up ratio: {Percentage of service points won}/{Percentage of return points lost}
2) Vertigo ratio: {Percentage of UE won from opponent}/{Percentage of UE lost to opponent}
3) Choke ratio: {Percentage of break points saved}/{Percentage of break points won}
...
Now calculate them please
 
It will be tough, but one good win and he can keep it around 1.46–1.47, which would still be far and away the highest DR in the data era, i.e., (1991–2025).

After Paris he is at 1.52 which certainly helps. It is funny how many people prove to be clueless again about basic data. Elo and stats from 2020 to 2022 already showed an excellent grow curve which pointed towards big success down the road.

Shows perfectly how important is in the long run the focus on process and not on outcomes….
 
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He's one of the most efficient players ever, but he's going to have to improve his record against his only remotely respectable opponent. Wimbledon was a good win but he needs more of those.
Six Kings 2024. Six Kings 2025! They are piling up! :)

Actually, I do count the results of these tournaments even though the ATP does not. H2H is just a computation, not an event unto itself, so IMO any competitive encounter is fair game, whether the tournament is part of the official tour or not.
 
Sinner during the past 52 weeks has by far the highest percentage of service games held and also the highest break percentage. This has never been done before in a season. During Paris, he hit a 97 mph FH with huge spin on it. Some players hit 97. Others hit with big spin. Sinner can do both on the same shot.

Alcaraz is saving tennis right now; kind of like how Nadal saved tennis from 2005-2007. However, Alcaraz is more of a threat on all surfaces(for now, anyway- this would change in 2008) than than Nadal was. I still can’t tell which player will have the better career. But both players are fantastic.
 
Six Kings 2024. Six Kings 2025! They are piling up! :)

Actually, I do count the results of these tournaments even though the ATP does not. H2H is just a computation, not an event unto itself, so IMO any competitive encounter is fair game, whether the tournament is part of the official tour or not.
Exhibitions are not competitive encounters to the same degree as official tournaments. Once you open the door to exhibitions you start getting very weird results.
 
Exhibitions are not competitive encounters to the same degree as official tournaments. Once you open the door to exhibitions you start getting very weird results.
"Exhibition" is an overly broad term. People use it to dismiss any event that's not on the ATP's calendar. Does the Six Kings Slam have players wearing microphones and cracking jokes to the crowd as they lazily tap some balls around? No. Does it have a standard invitational tournament structure and a final with competitive stakes large enough to motivate the players? Yes.

I'm not arguing that everyone has to include the results of the 6KS in the Alcaraz-Sinner H2H (or any applicable H2H). I'm just explaining why I do. I don't expect most people to abandon the ATP standard.
 
Exhibitions are not competitive encounters to the same degree as official tournaments. Once you open the door to exhibitions you start getting very weird results.
Given the gargantuan amount of money at stake for the Six Mugs final, I do think the players tried decently hard, perhaps comparable with a masters event though obviously not a slam. At least that win has more merit than Cincy'25 for Alcaraz.
 
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Given the gargantuan amount of money at stake for the Six Mugs final, I do think the players tried decently hard, perhaps comparable with a masters event though obviously not a slam. At least that win has more merit than Cincy'25 for Alcaraz.
Tell that to Zverev.

The amount of money they get just for participating is already massive. The winner's payout is very substantial, but at that level I don't think the dollar amount of the prize money actually matters too much. Sinner and Alcaraz are already worth well over $50 million in prize money, not even counting sponsorships.
 
Tell that to Zverev.

The amount of money they get just for participating is already massive. The winner's payout is very substantial, but at that level I don't think the dollar amount of the prize money actually matters too much. Sinner and Alcaraz are already worth well over $50 million in prize money, not even counting sponsorships.
Does an extra masters title matter much, then? Both have a lot of slams and masters and slams are understood to be the legacy-defining events in this slam-centric era.
 
Does an extra masters title matter much, then? Both have a lot of slams and masters and slams are understood to be the legacy-defining events in this slam-centric era.
Ranking points do, and Masters give you 1000 of them. It's because of Sinner's recent victory in Paris that he still has a shot at the YE-#1. That matters to players.
 
Ranking points do, and Masters give you 1000 of them. It's because of Sinner's recent victory in Paris that he still has a shot at the YE-#1. That matters to players.
In this case yes, but what about last year when Jannie was far and away #1? What carried more significance, the Beijing loss or the Six Mugs win?
 
Wish we had numbers for Mac’s ‘84.

I wish we had that as well, and I think it's very likely that it would be above 1.52. The only thing that we have to approximate it are games won percentage and sets won percentage. I found that a combination of games won and sets won gets us the highest correlation with dominance ratio:

IMG-0390.jpg


if you plot games won+sets won % against dominance ratio over the past three seasons you get a graph that looks like this from which you can create a regression line of best fit:

IMG-0391.jpg


Notice at the very tail end of the line you get the greatest amount of possible error:

IMG-0392.jpg


The equation for the line of best fit is:

y = .0070x + .3069

To test this, if we plug in Sinner's 2025 games won% + sets won% for x (149.2), we get a predicted dominance ratio of 1.35 which is .17 off of what it actually is, i.e., 1.52.

The line of best fit predicts 1984 McEnroe's DR to be 1.41. We already saw that at the high-end that Sinner's was off by .17. JMac's could be off by .20 putting him at an absurd 1.6 DR.

@Moose Malloy @Rovesciarete @Gizo
 
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Ranking points do, and Masters give you 1000 of them.
Ranking points are not necessary for an event's results to count in the ATP's H2H: Davis Cup, Laver Cup, Olympics. I'm just applying a similar standard to the 6KS. If there is meaningful, structured match competition, I count it.
 
2015 Djokovic played 18 matches against top10s and 29 overall matches more than 2025 Sinner.

Dominance Ratio is a cool stat but it's certainly not enough to determine dominance. The best way to determine dominance is Grand Slam and Big Tournaments titles won and winning percentage.
 
I wish we had that as well, and I think it's very likely that it would be above 1.52. The only thing that we have to approximate it are games won percentage and sets won percentage. I found that a combination of games one and set one gets us the highest correlation with dominance ratio:

if you plot games won+sets won % against dominance ratio over the past three seasons you get a graph that looks like this from which you can create a regression line of best fit:

Notice at the very tail end of the line you get the greatest amount of possible error:

The line of best fit predicts 1984 McEnroe's DR to be 1.41. We already saw that at the high-end that Sinner's was off by .17. JMac's could be off by .20 putting him at an absurd 1.6 DR.

Very enlightening, as so often!

I wonder if the tennis played his timeframe was less conductive to high dominance ratios or more so. My hunch would be the former, but I have to think about it. The personality, qualities and playstyle of Sinner seem just far more suited to achieve those absurd DR numbers than the package of McEnroe.

Nowadays the 100th player of the ATP ranking is markedly stronger relative to the top 10 than forty years ago, which makes them considerably harder to dominate. Especially the percentage of serve points wonhave been creeping higher in the last twenty years, making scoring return points harder and harder.

Higher quality, more regular and more similar courts on the other hand would facilitate higher DR numbers.
 
"Exhibition" is an overly broad term. People use it to dismiss any event that's not on the ATP's calendar. Does the Six Kings Slam have players wearing microphones and cracking jokes to the crowd as they lazily tap some balls around? No. Does it have a standard invitational tournament structure and a final with competitive stakes large enough to motivate the players? Yes.

I'm not arguing that everyone has to include the results of the 6KS in the Alcaraz-Sinner H2H (or any applicable H2H). I'm just explaining why I do. I don't expect most people to abandon the ATP standard.
The ATP doesn't even include Challenger events in the h2h, so it's certainly not the be all end all IMO.
 
Very enlightening, as so often!

I wonder if the tennis played his timeframe was less conductive to high dominance ratios or more so. My hunch would be the former, but I have to think about it. The personality, qualities and playstyle of Sinner seem just far more suited to achieve those absurd DR numbers than the package of McEnroe.

Nowadays the 100th player of the ATP ranking is markedly stronger relative to the top 10 than forty years ago, which makes them considerably harder to dominate. Especially the percentage of serve points wonhave been creeping higher in the last twenty years, making scoring return points harder and harder.

Higher quality, more regular and more similar courts on the other hand would facilitate higher DR numbers.
I’m 95%+ certain JMac didn’t hold serve as efficiently as Sinner has since it was harder to hold serve as easily in general, but I do think that he was winning more points on return as it was easier to do so back then as well.

If I had to make a guess, I’d say JMac’s DR was probably between 1.48 and 1.54.
 
I’m 95%+ certain JMac didn’t hold serve as efficiently as Sinner has since it was harder to hold serve as easily in general, but I do think that he was winning more points on return as it was easier to do so back then as well.

If I had to make a guess, I’d say JMac’s DR was probably between 1.48 and 1.54.
I think that Mac will be even higher than that. He dished out a lot of breadsticks in 1984 and he also won a ridiculous percentage of his games. But unfortunately, we will never know. His 82-3 record overall and 16-1 vs the top-5 that year was absolutely bananas.

I guess that I had better go through his games won% and his number of bagels and bread sticks before I got throwing a 1.57 DR guestimate out there. I haven’t dug into this
 
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