2025 US Open SF: [1] Jannik Sinner vs [25] Felix Auger-Aliassime

Who will win this match?

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ATP H2H: 2-1 for Felix

The first Grand Slam meeting between these two tennis players, both born in the 2000s. Jannik is a big favorite, but can Felix stop him from advanced into the final? We'll see on Friday.
 
I don't know why people are counting Felix out so easily. He's not like Musetti or DeMinaur in which Sinner is strictly better in every category. His serve is stronger, he's as athletic as Sinner, and his forehand is probably his biggest advantage over Sinner. This might be another routine sweeping for the Carrot of Doom but Felix is certainly measuring up to be tougher than any other opponent Sinner has faced so far by a significant margin.

Sinner in 4.
 
4UTRMoutet said:
I don't know why people are counting Felix out so easily. He's not like Musetti or DeMinaur in which Sinner is strictly better in every category. His serve is stronger, he's as athletic as Sinner, and his forehand is probably his biggest advantage over Sinner. This might be another routine sweeping for the Carrot of Doom but Felix is certainly measuring up to be tougher than any other opponent Sinner has faced so far by a significant margin.

Sinner in 4.
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Did you see the bagel he got from him almost 2 weeks ago?

I don’t see anything different other than the Canadian choking and crapping his pants
 
TennisGrandpA said:
Did you see today’s match? Sinner literally annihilated Musetti and Musetti wasn’t even bad bad? Who can beat Sinner when he’s playing g like this? He’s simply unbeatable
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He was crazy good. I saw the highlights and it was a demolition. Basically if alcaraz doesn’t hit his peak then sinner cleans up everything. He beats everyone else and can beat alcaraz when he just okay or at B game like Wimbledon. Unless alcaraz is in peak form then basically right now every tournament a wrap for the Italian. It just tennis from the gods!

The thing alcaraz looks to be bringing it too but let’s see how he looks in semis. If both bring it the final could be insane again.
 
There are several levels of difference between Zverev, Rublev, De Minaur, and current Sinner. Add to that that Musetti really wasn't bad yesterday and still only won a couple games, while being a more crafty and less predictable player than FAA...

I really like Félix and he had a great run, but here he has virtually no chance at all. His FH and serve may catch fire at some times but there is no way he will redline for long enough to really scare Jannik. Besides that he will be dead in any BH rallies.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
He was crazy good. I saw the highlights and it was a demolition. Basically if alcaraz doesn’t hit his peak then sinner cleans up everything. He beats everyone else and can beat alcaraz when he just okay or at B game like Wimbledon. Unless alcaraz is in peak form then basically right now every tournament a wrap for the Italian. It just tennis from the gods!

The thing alcaraz looks to be bringing it too but let’s see how he looks in semis. If both bring it the final could be insane again.
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Bro you’re keeping false hope in Carlos, Sinner is playing brutal tennis , I don’t think anyone will even win a set against him
 
4UTRMoutet said:
I don't know why people are counting Felix out so easily. He's not like Musetti or DeMinaur in which Sinner is strictly better in every category. His serve is stronger, he's as athletic as Sinner, and his forehand is probably his biggest advantage over Sinner. This might be another routine sweeping for the Carrot of Doom but Felix is certainly measuring up to be tougher than any other opponent Sinner has faced so far by a significant margin.

Sinner in 4.
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Sinner has the best forehand on tour what are you talking about
 
TennisGrandpA said:
Have you changed your opinion about Sinner now? Still think Carlos is a better player??
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9-5 h2h including 5 in a row, 6/7 and 8/11, more Slams, more titles, better stats etc. while being 2 years younger.

And Alcaraz didn't have to dope to achieve his results too. Sinner is one lanky uncharismatic robotic who needs to redline to barely beat the only man who truly matters on tour right now once. Took "cakewalk draws" to the next level, my grandma would've won the 2024 USO and 2024 WTF with such draws.
 
TennisGrandpA said:
Bro you’re keeping false hope in Carlos, Sinner is playing brutal tennis , I don’t think anyone will even win a set against him
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It because he’s the only who proved himself against a prime/peak sinner. Sinner is more consistent though and HC his best surface. Sinner is slight favourite but we know alcaraz can reach an unbelievable peak that can even crack sinner’s machine like dominance.
 
FAA's had a great run but he doesn't have anything in his game that can consistently hurt Sinner. There isn't a single thing that Sinner doesn't do way better.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
It because he’s the only who proved himself against a prime/peak sinner. Sinner is more consistent though and HC his best surface. Sinner is slight favourite but we know alcaraz can reach an unbelievable peak that can even crack sinner’s machine like dominance.
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Naah man i dont see anyone beating Sinner , maybe Peak Novak can do and that too at AO but at USO Sinner is basically Nadal at FO
 
Think Felix will ve doing well if he gets into double digits in games won, the way Sinner is playing.

In order to make match remotely interesting then FAA will have to be at his absolute best and serving incredibly well.
 
TennisGrandpA said:
Naah man i dont see anyone beating Sinner , maybe Peak Novak can do and that too at AO but at USO Sinner is basically Nadal at FO
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I agree this is sinner’s territory and he favourite. He was sick in cincy which was unfortunate for him.

However, he looks tip top here and if he maintains this level he going to be very difficult to beat. He deserves to be favourite as he’s dominated HC slams since Aussie open 2024.
 
TennisGrandpA said:
Naah man i dont see anyone beating Sinner , maybe Peak Novak can do and that too at AO but at USO Sinner is basically Nadal at FO
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I don't know that I'd go that far about anyone, even Djokovic at the AO. Nadal won RG four times without even losing a set and won the tournament 14 times. Sinner just lost a set against Shapo, and last year he lost sets against Meddy and McDonald. We can start comparing him to Nadal if he gets to 11 US Open titles (thus surpassing Djokovic at the AO) and wins the event at least twice without dropping a set (thus surpassing Federer at the AO and WI, each of which he won once without dropping a set).

A good short-term goal for Sinner would be to win a slam losing just one set all event. (He lost three sets at AO 2024, two sets at USO 2024, two sets at AO 2025, and three sets at WI 2025. He did go through both USO 2024 and AO 2025 without dropping two sets in any one match, though, which I think shows a good cushion).

For what it's worth, I also think that the AO will be Sinner's best slam, not the USO.
 
helterskelter said:
I don't know that I'd go that far about anyone, even Djokovic at the AO. Nadal won RG four times without even losing a set and won the tournament 14 times. Sinner just lost a set against Shapo, and last year he lost sets against Meddy and McDonald. We can start comparing him to Nadal if he gets to 11 US Open titles (thus surpassing Djokovic at the AO) and wins the event at least twice without dropping a set (thus surpassing Federer at the AO and WI, each of which he won once without dropping a set).

A good short-term goal for Sinner would be to win a slam losing just one set all event. (He lost three sets at AO 2024, two sets at USO 2024, two sets at AO 2025, and three sets at WI 2025. He did go through both USO 2024 and AO 2025 without dropping two sets in any one match, though, which I think shows a good cushion).

For what it's worth, I also think that the AO will be Sinner's best slam, not the USO.
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'Grandpa' is exaggerating a lot, we'll see if Sinner can defeat Alcaraz in the US Open final.
:D
 
dking68 said:
Did you see the bagel he got from him almost 2 weeks ago?

I don’t see anything different other than the Canadian choking and crapping his pants
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Did you see the stats? Félix hit 8 doubles, and completely beat himself.

Not saying Sinner wouldn't have won anyway, but there was only one player on court that day.
 
LMAO Sinner is a -2500 favorite in a SF. Unless Sinner gets injured or ebola, there's no way felix wins. This is the ultimate amount of respect for Sinner and well earned.

tennis_pro said:
1,03 odds against top tenner Musetti and now 1,03 odds against an in-form Aliassime. WTF.
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He's on the most dominant hardcourt run since Fedr, and if looking at points dominance, even moreso if looking at a two year window. Musetti and Bublik are decent players and you never felt that they had a chance and needed everything to go right just to win a set. It's wild.
 
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FAA has been playing great by taking advantage of opportunities and going big with his forehand. These opportunities will be few and far between against Sinner as he is consistently going bigger from the baseline on both sides than FAA has seen all tournament. He will feel smothered and he will cough up bunches of UE’s. The scary thing that Sinner was doing in his match against Musetti was just going for and landing ridiculous slap shot winners when he was stretched out. Sinner with a lead is becoming the unbeatable final boss.
 
JMR said:
Interestingly, the USO hasn't been any multi-slam winner's "best slam" since the 1980s. Not Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic. Not Sinner or Alcaraz so far. Not Sampras, Agassi, or Courier. You have to go back to Lendl, and before him, Connors and Mac.
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Not Edberg, Becker, or Wilander, either. (Given you're saying Lendl was more successful at the USO than at RG, Edberg's runner-up slots at the AO make that his most-successful slam statistically). Not even Murray, for whom it might have seemed likely to be, or Wawrinka.

To be fair, Sinner will probably make it his most successful slam to date by the end of the tournament (Two titles each, one QF each, but 2-1 in R4s at the USO. To me, that matters more than win percentage).
 
The sign of a dominant player is when the betting odds are extreme long shots, which is what has happened with Sinner.

Sinner’s money line his last 3 matches:

Bublik: -8000
Musetti: -2000
Felix: -5000

Those odds are insane. Felix needs to serve the match of his life to take a set. I’m taking Sinner in 3. He loses 11 games total.
 
ghostofMecir said:
LMAO Sinner is a -2500 favorite in a SF. Unless Sinner gets injured or ebola, there's no way felix wins. This is the ultimate amount of respect for Sinner and well earned.



He's on the most dominant hardcourt run since Fedr, and if looking at points dominance, even moreso if looking at a two year window. Musetti and Bublik are decent players and you never felt that they had a chance and needed everything to go right just to win a set. It's wild.
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Shapovalov did take a hard-fought set from Sinner. In retrospect that's kind of impressive.
He's getting better.
 
ghostofMecir said:
LMAO Sinner is a -2500 favorite in a SF. Unless Sinner gets injured or ebola, there's no way felix wins. This is the ultimate amount of respect for Sinner and well earned.



He's on the most dominant hardcourt run since Fedr, and if looking at points dominance, even moreso if looking at a two year window. Musetti and Bublik are decent players and you never felt that they had a chance and needed everything to go right just to win a set. It's wild.
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If Sinner is ill, then he's got a shot, but even so it's not really a given. Otherwise I don't think FAA can reach a high enough ceiling over 5 sets. Only Raz can.
 
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Pheasant said:
The sign of a dominant player is when the betting odds are extreme long shots, which is what has happened with Sinner.

Sinner’s money line his last 3 matches:

Bublik: -8000
Musetti: -2000
Felix: -5000

Those odds are insane. Felix needs to serve the match of his life to take a set. I’m taking Sinner in 3. He loses 11 games total.
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These are insane odds though i didn't see these extremes. I saw -2500 vs Bublik and FAA, and -2000 vs. Mussetti.

O/U is at 12.5 games for FAA. Can he hold enough times to lose 6-4, 7-5, 6-4? Even that wouldn't get him over 12.5.
 
tennis_pro said:
9-5 h2h including 5 in a row, 6/7 and 8/11, more Slams, more titles, better stats etc. while being 2 years younger.

And Alcaraz didn't have to dope to achieve his results too. Sinner is one lanky uncharismatic robotic who needs to redline to barely beat the only man who truly matters on tour right now once. Took "cakewalk draws" to the next level, my grandma would've won the 2024 USO and 2024 WTF with such draws.
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It’s not like anyone would have stopped him at those tournaments
 
I really want to see Felix win majors--I believe he has the talent to do so, but Sinner is on a more serious journey, and I'd like to see him win this 2025 US Open--and the next few majors in a row, if possible.
 
Gary Duane said:
I have no idea how you came to that conclusion.
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Which part is at question?

He had and probably still has a bigger serve (but it's nowhere near ad consistent -- I blame the ball toss).

Neither is lacking forehand firepower.

Athleticism -- Sinner moves better side-to-side, but Felix has him beat moving forward.
 
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