2025 USTA League Nationals match schedules are out

HBK4life said:
How is that statistically possible for a system that is supposed to make things competitive lol?
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Yes, I love talking about the outliers, but the system, for the amount of resources thrown at it (not much) is pretty good in my opinion for making 90% of matches competitive or maybe even higher. There are the extreme outliers though. It's always fun to discuss little adjustments, but without more money applied/resources, tweaks will always be worked around by those who really want them t-shirts and water bottles with "sectionals" on them or "nationals"
 
mpnv1990 said:
It only works to the extent that people are honest.
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And here we are. The reason for the broken system. I think it is time for a computer to spit out a group of teams based out of an area/ club. Then someone can choose to captain or not. Take people out. I play with them. That’s enough.
 
mpnv1990 said:
I would think that Utah is going to win 3.5 nationals.

They went 20-0 at sectionals.
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HBK4life said:
How is that statistically possible for a system that is supposed to make things competitive lol?
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Interesting that their local league was more competitve than Sectionals was. They lost a match at their District playoffs and had to get through on a 3-team tiebreaker. If their opponent had taken care of business in other matches they would not have even made Sectionals. They did go 8-0 in the regular season but had a couple of close 3-2 wins. Maybe this was just a down year for the rest of Intermountain section at 3.5.

They do have a few good S-rates, but their top 4 players on TR are all C-rated with no apparent history of tanking down to get 3.5C. Overall seems pretty low on shenanigans compared to other examples we've seen.
 
Middle States 4.0 18+ is a mild surprise. They obviously have a bunch of really good 4.0 players or else they wouldn't have won sectionals, but no one who jumps off the page as laughably out of level. In fact, they beat the team in NJ districts with the most laughably out of level player, this guy:


He was the only one who won his match against the eventual sectional champs, which is a testament to that team's quality depth over ringers this year.

This guy is 4.0 C rated this year, although I have no idea how. He's been a top level 4.5 in Middle States for years. Last year, he played 1 league match, at 4.5, which he won. I don't understand how that even translates to a 12/31/24 C rating at all for any level, much less a bump down. His only other matches were in 2 4.5 singles tournaments, and he won both tournaments. In 2023, he played 2 league matches, both at 4.5, won both, and finished with a rating of 4.43 on TR. I know TR isn't finely tuned accurate when it comes to predicting bumps, but I can't remember seeing a person who is borderline 5.0 on TR who gets bumped down to 4.0 instead. They're never THAT far off. His win against Brian S should be a 5.0 rated match. Brian is a very consistent and difficult singles player, that was his only loss this year, including winning both singles matches at 4.5 sectionals.
 
J_R_B said:
Middle States 4.0 18+ is a mild surprise. They obviously have a bunch of really good 4.0 players or else they wouldn't have won sectionals, but no one who jumps off the page as laughably out of level. In fact, they beat the team in NJ districts with the most laughably out of level player, this guy:


He was the only one who won his match against the eventual sectional champs, which is a testament to that team's quality depth over ringers this year.

This guy is 4.0 C rated this year, although I have no idea how. He's been a top level 4.5 in Middle States for years. Last year, he played 1 league match, at 4.5, which he won. I don't understand how that even translates to a 12/31/24 C rating at all for any level, much less a bump down. His only other matches were in 2 4.5 singles tournaments, and he won both tournaments. In 2023, he played 2 league matches, both at 4.5, won both, and finished with a rating of 4.43 on TR. I know TR isn't finely tuned accurate when it comes to predicting bumps, but I can't remember seeing a person who is borderline 5.0 on TR who gets bumped down to 4.0 instead. They're never THAT far off. His win against Brian S should be a 5.0 rated match. Brian is a very consistent and difficult singles player, that was his only loss this year, including winning both singles matches at 4.5 sectionals.
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Yeah, that player is out of level for sure. Sometimes the USTA just misses really bad on year-end ratings and I don't know why. He was a hold over self-rated 4.5 from 2023 (only played 2 matches that year), but had been a 5.0C at 2009 year-end. In 2024 he had just one league match (6-3,6-3 win that should have been a mid-4.5 match rating) but played some 4.5 singles tournaments going 9-0, and lost one open tournament match 6-1,6-1. And he got a 2024 year-end 4.0C! I didn't have him there ...

And the Nationals team does have a lot of C rated players, but yeah, they are really good and several definitely out of level.
 
J_R_B said:
Middle States 4.0 18+ is a mild surprise. They obviously have a bunch of really good 4.0 players or else they wouldn't have won sectionals, but no one who jumps off the page as laughably out of level. In fact, they beat the team in NJ districts with the most laughably out of level player, this guy:


He was the only one who won his match against the eventual sectional champs, which is a testament to that team's quality depth over ringers this year.

This guy is 4.0 C rated this year, although I have no idea how. He's been a top level 4.5 in Middle States for years. Last year, he played 1 league match, at 4.5, which he won. I don't understand how that even translates to a 12/31/24 C rating at all for any level, much less a bump down. His only other matches were in 2 4.5 singles tournaments, and he won both tournaments. In 2023, he played 2 league matches, both at 4.5, won both, and finished with a rating of 4.43 on TR. I know TR isn't finely tuned accurate when it comes to predicting bumps, but I can't remember seeing a person who is borderline 5.0 on TR who gets bumped down to 4.0 instead. They're never THAT far off. His win against Brian S should be a 5.0 rated match. Brian is a very consistent and difficult singles player, that was his only loss this year, including winning both singles matches at 4.5 sectionals.
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We need USTA to hire schmke, he would be great at deciding bumps.
 
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FuzzyYellowBalls said:
Yes, I love talking about the outliers, but the system, for the amount of resources thrown at it (not much) is pretty good in my opinion for making 90% of matches competitive or maybe even higher. There are the extreme outliers though. It's always fun to discuss little adjustments, but without more money applied/resources, tweaks will always be worked around by those who really want them t-shirts and water bottles with "sectionals" on them or "nationals"
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What do you consider competitive? The losing side winning 50% of the games or more? Usta does not even claim the matches are competitive.

I could hand pick players after playing with or against them in a match or two that would be more competitive then the USTA levels.
 
Moon Shooter said:
What do you consider competitive? The losing side winning 50% of the games or more? Usta does not even claim the matches are competitive.

I could hand pick players after playing with or against them in a match or two that would be more competitive then the USTA levels.
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I don't know really Moon, I think you are in a rural area if I am not mistaken, so your experience might be unusual. I think you are about right, maybe just 6-2 6-3 matches or something close to that, lack of 6-1 6-0 ish matches being the norm. That's how it is in Texas, TN, AR, MS, GA, and FL, the areas I am familiar with.

I don't doubt you might be able to hand pick competitive matches, but USTA isn't going to pay anyone to handpick matches nationwide and I don't think anyone would volunteer to do it either, then I also don't think players would want this or if they did, how could they ever agree on who will do the handpicking.
 
FYB I should say i think USTA does a good job for the women’s leagues.
As far as my experience being rural - sort of. I mean I do play against teams from chicago for state and have made it to sectionals 3 times. Those trips havent made me think the levels are more competitive.
 
@schmke could I tempt you to do an analysis for 8.0 mixed nationals? Especially with most sections doing unbalanced courts, but a couple sections moving to straight-level for mixed, I'm curious as to how that plays out.
 
J_R_B said:
Middle States 4.0 18+ is a mild surprise. They obviously have a bunch of really good 4.0 players or else they wouldn't have won sectionals, but no one who jumps off the page as laughably out of level. In fact, they beat the team in NJ districts with the most laughably out of level player, this guy:


He was the only one who won his match against the eventual sectional champs, which is a testament to that team's quality depth over ringers this year.

This guy is 4.0 C rated this year, although I have no idea how. He's been a top level 4.5 in Middle States for years. Last year, he played 1 league match, at 4.5, which he won. I don't understand how that even translates to a 12/31/24 C rating at all for any level, much less a bump down. His only other matches were in 2 4.5 singles tournaments, and he won both tournaments. In 2023, he played 2 league matches, both at 4.5, won both, and finished with a rating of 4.43 on TR. I know TR isn't finely tuned accurate when it comes to predicting bumps, but I can't remember seeing a person who is borderline 5.0 on TR who gets bumped down to 4.0 instead. They're never THAT far off. His win against Brian S should be a 5.0 rated match. Brian is a very consistent and difficult singles player, that was his only loss this year, including winning both singles matches at 4.5 sectionals.
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Member of the MS 4.0 Nationals team here! i can confirm that the player JRB is referring to is a complete joke on the rating system as to why he's allowed to play at 4.0 in the first place. On his worst day he still beats top 4.0s. If you guys gave names on who you thought were out of level , either here on in a PM i would give you an honest opinion on whether or not they are or not. curious to see if my name pops up ( but choosing to remain anonymous)
 
KingRoger1991 said:
Member of the MS 4.0 Nationals team here! i can confirm that the player JRB is referring to is a complete joke on the rating system as to why he's allowed to play at 4.0 in the first place. On his worst day he still beats top 4.0s. If you guys gave names on who you thought were out of level , either here on in a PM i would give you an honest opinion on whether or not they are or not. curious to see if my name pops up ( but choosing to remain anonymous)
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I don't want to trash the NTRP system too much because it's right (or "appropriate for it's purpose", I guess) 95% of the time overall and 99% or more of the time when people are playing fairly and not trying to manipulate it, but there are misses, and this is one of the biggest misses I've ever seen, right down to how he even got a 2024 C-rating of any type after only playing one league match in 2024. It doesn't appear that there is anything underhanded going on here. He played one 4.5 league match in 2024 and won it and entered two 4.5 NTRP singles tournaments and won both, so there is nothing that looks even remotely like cheating the system and something just went completely haywire in the system itself for this one. It happens sometimes.
 
J_R_B said:
I don't want to trash the NTRP system too much because it's right (or "appropriate for it's purpose", I guess) 95% of the time overall and 99% or more of the time when people are playing fairly and not trying to manipulate it, but there are misses, and this is one of the biggest misses I've ever seen, right down to how he even got a 2024 C-rating of any type after only playing one league match in 2024. It doesn't appear that there is anything underhanded going on here. He played one 4.5 league match in 2024 and won it and entered two 4.5 NTRP singles tournaments and won both, so there is nothing that looks even remotely like cheating the system and something just went completely haywire in the system itself for this one. It happens sometimes.
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But, I ask for the impossible, he's not cheating, but he's basically pooping around in 4.0. Win a couple of 4.5 tournaments, if they had 4.5s in the draw, why would you ever play 4.0 even with friends (just play with them for fun outside USTA), it's not as pure as the standard I would hold people to.
 
J_R_B said:
Middle States 4.0 18+ is a mild surprise. They obviously have a bunch of really good 4.0 players or else they wouldn't have won sectionals, but no one who jumps off the page as laughably out of level. In fact, they beat the team in NJ districts with the most laughably out of level player, this guy:


He was the only one who won his match against the eventual sectional champs, which is a testament to that team's quality depth over ringers this year.

This guy is 4.0 C rated this year, although I have no idea how. He's been a top level 4.5 in Middle States for years. Last year, he played 1 league match, at 4.5, which he won. I don't understand how that even translates to a 12/31/24 C rating at all for any level, much less a bump down. His only other matches were in 2 4.5 singles tournaments, and he won both tournaments. In 2023, he played 2 league matches, both at 4.5, won both, and finished with a rating of 4.43 on TR. I know TR isn't finely tuned accurate when it comes to predicting bumps, but I can't remember seeing a person who is borderline 5.0 on TR who gets bumped down to 4.0 instead. They're never THAT far off. His win against Brian S should be a 5.0 rated match. Brian is a very consistent and difficult singles player, that was his only loss this year, including winning both singles matches at 4.5 sectionals.
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That dude is UTR 8+
 
FuzzyYellowBalls said:
But, I ask for the impossible, he's not cheating, but he's basically pooping around in 4.0. Win a couple of 4.5 tournaments, if they had 4.5s in the draw, why would you ever play 4.0 even with friends (just play with them for fun outside USTA), it's not as pure as the standard I would hold people to.
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That's a question for him. He clearly wasn't challenged at 4.0 in any way at all. In fact, since he was C-rated, he could play 4.0 and 4.5 and was undefeated in 4.5 as well, including a straight set win against one of the top 4.5 singles players in NJ who himself was otherwise undefeated (including 2 matches at 4.5 sectionals), so I can't see any way 4.0 wasn't boring for him.
 
J_R_B said:
That's a question for him. He clearly wasn't challenged at 4.0 in any way at all. In fact, since he was C-rated, he could play 4.0 and 4.5 and was undefeated in 4.5 as well, including a straight set win against one of the top 4.5 singles players in NJ who himself was otherwise undefeated (including 2 matches at 4.5 sectionals), so I can't see any way 4.0 wasn't boring for him.
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Indeed. he probably played some "mild" competition at nationals or whatever, but good lord the regular season must have had some hilarious matchups.
 
J_R_B said:
how he even got a 2024 C-rating of any type after only playing one league match in 2024
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I thought this part could be OK, as some areas average sanctioned tournament match results into league results when calculating the year-end C rating. So he had one league match and several tournament matches that were averaged together. If he had not played the one league match, it would have been a T-rating.

Even if that part is right though, it should have been a 4.5C, not 4.0C.
 
I posted the projection from my simulation on my blog this morning.

Summary:

Favorites: Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Southern
Have a chance: Middle States, Middlewest, SoCal

The most likely records have five 3-1 teams, but one has a 38% chance of 4-0 and another 27%, so very possible there is a 4-0 team or two. But we will likely have a semi spot decided by the standings tie-breakers between teams that are 3-1.
 
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computerratings.blogspot.com

There could be six undefeated teams at USTA League 18 & Over 4.0 men's Nationals!

In looking at the details of the projections from my simulation for the 18 & Over 4.0 men this morning, I noticed that it said there was a ...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com

Interesting article if no one has seen it.

computerratings.blogspot.com

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend ! The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of fou...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com
 
Creighton said:
computerratings.blogspot.com

There could be six undefeated teams at USTA League 18 & Over 4.0 men's Nationals!

In looking at the details of the projections from my simulation for the 18 & Over 4.0 men this morning, I noticed that it said there was a ...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com

Interesting article if no one has seen it.

computerratings.blogspot.com

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend ! The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of fou...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting.

Here is the diagram showing how there could be six 18+ 4.0 men's teams going 4-0.

2025-18-40M-6.png



And I just did my simulation for the 18+ 3.5 women and they have two different ways there could be six 4-0 teams.

2025-18-35W-base-6a.png


2025-18-35W-base-6b.png
 
A friend of mine who is in the 18s 5.0 nationals down in Scottsdale just reported that due to impending rain and flooding, the USTA has switched to a no-ad Fast 4 scoring for all matches, and rearranged the schedule so that three out of the four team matches are happening today, and one match happening tomorrow morning. I'm not sure if they expect to get the semis and finals done on Sunday.

Pretty anticlimactic and expensive way to finish a season!

Edit: I see that @schmke already posted about this in his blog, and it came true.

computerratings.blogspot.com

This weekend's USTA League Nationals in Arizona may be using short sets

I wrote a few days ago about the potential rain in the Phoenix area , and it appears the forecast is bad enough that the USTA is going to pr...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com
 
Jack the Hack said:
A friend of mine who is in the 18s 5.0 nationals down in Scottsdale just reported that due to impending rain and flooding, the USTA has switched to a no-ad Fast 4 scoring for all matches, and rearranged the schedule so that three out of the four team matches are happening today, and one match happening tomorrow morning. I'm not sure if they expect to get the semis and finals done on Sunday.

Pretty anticlimactic and expensive way to finish a season!

Edit: I see that @schmke already posted about this in his blog, and it came true.

computerratings.blogspot.com

This weekend's USTA League Nationals in Arizona may be using short sets

I wrote a few days ago about the potential rain in the Phoenix area , and it appears the forecast is bad enough that the USTA is going to pr...
computerratings.blogspot.com computerratings.blogspot.com
Click to expand...
I can read a weather report!

Seriously, the report is better for Sunday than it is for today and tomorrow. And good on the USTA for being proactive about trying to get matches in ahead of schedule if possible instead of reacting mid-day today when they are already hopelessly behind.
 
No big surprises so far for the 4.0 men, but Middle West beat Mid-Atlantic in a minor upset. Texas and Intermountain are playing right now (Texas already won 5-0, this is IM's first) which will go a long way to at least determining seeding for the semis.
 
That is a surprise by reputation, but my ratings don't see it as a surprise. Based on played averages in playoffs, I would have said a 4-1 result was the most likely. The score is not posted yet so don't know how it played out based on who actually played, but Texas had an advantage on both singles courts as well as courts 1 and 2 doubles.
 
Yeah, see the scores now. IM pulled an upset on 1S and Texas had a couple very minor upsets on 2D and 3D, although the scores make it look pretty comfortable for Texas on those courts.

IM not out of it, but being down 1-4 on courts after one match means they have their work cut out for them. What helps is that several favorites/contenders play each other.

Texas has Florida tomorrow
Eastern has Florida this evening
NorCal has Intermountain tomorrow, and also Mid-Atlantic this evening
MOValley has Intermountain tomorrow
Florida has Eastern tonight and Texas tomorrow

So IM can not only help themselves but hang a loss on their competition.

And don't sleep on Middle West given their easier schedule.
 
And Florida beats Eastern 4-1, all courts as expected except for one minor upset going Florida's way. Florida goes from 5th most likely to make the semis to 3rd most likely, but Eastern still has a great shot at the semis.
 
At 3.5 men, the teams from New England and Intermountain were discussed above in this thread, and they played each other today. Looks like it was a good one, NE won 3-2 but needed two match TB wins to get it done. Both teams won their other match today and could still make the final 4, but have potentially tough matchups tomorrow.
 
TennisOTM said:
At 3.5 men, the teams from New England and Intermountain were discussed above in this thread, and they played each other today. Looks like it was a good one, NE won 3-2 but needed two match TB wins to get it done. Both teams won their other match today and could still make the final 4, but have potentially tough matchups tomorrow.
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Possible, but doubtful they both make it. I'd say it is more likely neither makes it than both make it.

And NE pulled upsets in both those match TBs.
 
schmke said:
And Florida beats Eastern 4-1, all courts as expected except for one minor upset going Florida's way. Florida goes from 5th most likely to make the semis to 3rd most likely, but Eastern still has a great shot at the semis.
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For the 4.0M, IM comes back with a 4-1 win to keep their chances alive. And PNW picks up a win to be 2-0. But they get Texas tomorrow.

And only Texas is dominating at 2-0 being 9-1 on courts, the other three are all just 7-3 on individual courts, and with Texas playing PNW and Florida, we won't have four 4-0 teams, or perhaps even three.
 
Texas wins 4-1 to be 3-0 / 13-2, nearly a lock for a semi-final spot already.

IM also wins to get to 2-1 / 9-6 and keep their hopes alive. If they can beat MV 4-1 in their last match they can get to 3-1 / 13-7 and be ahead of MV at 3-1 / 12-6 and very well make the semis.

Several other 3rd matches to be played (or recorded) still so hard to say who else has the inside lane to the semis.
 
For the 4.0 men, at least 8, probably 9, teams will be 2-1 or better going into the last matches. Just three undefeated teams and two of them play each other and the other plays IM. Can a 3-1 / 12-8 team make the semis?
 
The 4.0 women will also have 8 or 9 teams at 2-1 or better, but their three 3-0 teams all play weaker opponents so likely just one spot for a 3-1 team.
 
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