I'm not sure he tanked so much as the USTA just really missed. He was a 4.5S and played just three matches, but he won a 4.5 match ... and got a 3.5C. And yes, both 4.5 opponents he beat were year-end 4.5s.
Well, the 4.0 men has Florida, Texas (lost 3-2 to Florida), Eastern, and Intermountain. A full 7 teams at 3-1 for the last 3 spots. My simulation had the top-3 (slightly different order) and had Intermountain 5th, so not too bad.
You were right! Intermountain goes 4-0 (20-0) at Sectionals, and then can only manage 1-3 (6-14) against other sections. Nationals is tough.
Texas had to play Intermountain and Florida. So there will be a rematch in 3 of the 4 scenarios:
Yeah, the simulation had them 12th but with a 2-2 and 9-11 record. 1-3 did have a 26% chance though.
Nice one. Overall, 3.5 men was tough to predict this year, no? Looks like your pre-tournament top 3 finished 4th, 9th, and 16th. Did they just not show up with their best players? What the heck happened to Texas??
The simulation did really well with the 4.0 men and women, but yeah, just looking at 3.5, for the women, two favorites made it, but the other two were only "have a chance" and not even contenders. For the men, just one favorite, two contenders, and a has a chance made it.
That is why I think the USTA should have checks in place to flag matches that are way outside of the expected result.
Texas top 3.5 man was away at 4. 0 nationals
And that's what happened! It's Eastern vs. IM for the 4.0 title. Seems like a great tournament this year. Both semifinals were 3-2, and now all the top 4 have had at least one loss among each other.
Why did the two self-rate singles players in today's lineup play #3 doubles almost exclusively in the regular season?****
And would USTA grant the appeal down to 4.0 for the doubles player in today's lineup knowing what they know now? With a 20-1 record this season, would he have been OK at 4.5 or higher in the 4.0 lineup? Maybe he just wasn't sure as he was playing with a new self-rate partner. But the self-rate was a high school state doubles champion coming from a program that had won six straight titles: https://www.deseret.com/2021/5/15/2...-6a-state-tennis-title-has-been-a-great-ride/. #1 dubs spot was reserved for member of 2020 national championship team. I could dig a bit more into the roster, but I guess these are all part of the "tricks."
They lost in the final to Southern 3-2 last year. Here is the recent history of 18+ 4.0 men
The devil is in the details...
Same captain has a 5th title as well: he won 2018 Nationals at 3.5
Will this recent "win" change feelings at all in your home state in your opinion? He has some other finals, too, as I recall, including the 3.5 Texas showdown.
I can't speak for everyone, but I don't think so. I'm probably in a small minority of local players who are even following the scores at Nationals. Every time I can remember bringing up the topic to teammates in conversation, it was always news to them.
Thank you for these insights. I guess we know who the favorites will be in @schmke's simulation for 2026 then...
LOL, you never know. The captain tried it at 4.5 one year, and did make it to Nationals, so it isn't a given he is back at 4.0.
I think between you, me, and many others on this forum we know that he will probably be back
4.0/3.5 is the sweet spot for the pool of players in this area for winning big. And we also know that USTA will most very likely not make any serious changes 
Not sure if you're local, but would you say the leagues are unpopular with players who are not on the #1 teams? The overall participation numbers have stayed pretty high, and players in the 18-25 age range are still a pretty small minority.
Oh, the grievances… those storylines behind years-long feuds amongst captains can be very amusing.
It may be good for business though--increasing club membership. Here's a new club seminar: https://sunproclub.com/events/adult-tennis-events/. I hid the four-letter words. Seems it would be good to organize some seminars for fighting back. It could be done virtually to accommodate all the districts/sections.
Yes, Fowkes strikes again, a legend. As a mere visitor to Salt Lake, I agree, I played at 5 clubs/locations and hardly anyone knew who Fowkes was except one club pro said "oh yeah, the guy who brings a laptop to matches and is taking notes all the time", intense dude.
I had the same thought myself, I even have been "not excited" about some recent matches in mixed because my time is not infinite for tennis. But, I bet these kids play a lot more outside USTA and they only need to mess around at line 3 doubles twice a season, right? Then it's two weekends for sectionals/nationals. The club is maybe the nicest one there, a local can correct me if I'm wrong. All around, it's a pretty good deal for the young guys.
Yes, discussion is fun, but I'm not one to say there is a solution, I've seen a lot of attempts in Texas and it's really hard to stop what I think is now just human nature in rec adult sports. I just like observing the behavior. Fowkes is just smarter than most or more motivated, or richer, take your pick of words.
In a weird way, the USTA may actually be on board with the recruiting of new players, as, well, the USTA needs new players given the declining participation, even post "COVID tennis boom" that we were told was happening. Sure, looking deeper may reveal that some of these new players only play one or two years then don't play USTA League anymore, but the USTA will take the bump in registrations however they can get it.
Yep, if you find a way to eliminate what the winning team does, there will just be another team that does slightly less or does it slightly differently that everyone complains about. It just seems that IM has perhaps taken it to the next level regarding the organization, training, and preparation to go along with the recruiting of players that have a big upside.
I get it. It's an extraploation of that line from his seminars about "like minded players". I'm just not wired to vibe with that mindset.
What about a rule that says if you have players disqualified on your team as a captain five out of six years--oh, by the way, aligning with national championship runs--you face some penalties? They could call it the **** Rule.
You can lose and still get strikes if you get more games than the computer algorithm thinks you should.
So he can't dominate the upcoming 40 plus 4.0 and 8.0 mixed nationals
Correct, a post Nationals DQ/promotion means the player can no longer play at their level, and if they are in another Nationals event, or playing in a Fall league, the become ineligible.
It is also possible a player is sitting on two strikes, gets the third in a win, but then has losses that perhaps even lower their dynamic rating, but accruing the third strike still means they are DQ'd after Nationals.
