2026 French Open - Women's Discussion

Who will be 2026 French Open Women's singles champion?

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    20
  • Poll closed .
helterskelter said:
@tennis_pro

Even without beating Saba, I think Chwalinska's route through is tougher than Raducanu's was:

Chwalinska has already beaten three seeds, and would have to beat four to win the title. Raducanu beat two.
The highest seed Raducanu beat was #11 (Bencic). Chwalinska would have to beat the #8 (Andreeva), and a #8 who is very young and could be under-ranked as a result.

Of course, if Andreeva were injured and Chwalinska won with a walkover or withdrawal, we'd have to think further. But assuming Chwalinska won a completed match, I think her draw is tougher than Raducanu's.
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If Chwalinska beats Andreeva, she will have survived the tougher draw, but up to now, Chwalinska hasn't played a single top 20 player. Raducanu at least beat two top 20 players, both on hot streaks.
 
odds on final already in... a huge gap between, 3.7 vs 1.28, so if someone will decide to place a bet on chwalinska, if she wins, then its gonna be a deecent hunk of a profit, i wonder kralingen will do it or not
 
ScentOfDefeat said:
Nah, can't imagine two Raducanu moments happening within the same decade.
But it's an amazing run.
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Chwalinska certainly has the game that could frustrate Andreeva, who's been prone to unravel when frustrated.

Power vs guile & finesse. Being that is their first ever slam finals, just might come down to who handles their nerves the best with few deer in the headlights moments.
 
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I may be behind the times as I don’t watch a ton of WTA tennis, but I could actually see Chwalinska frustrate Andreeva into a lot of errors. She can struggle to finish points offensively, as far as I’ve seen – but that may be old news, given how young she is and how quickly up-and-comers can develop.
 
D-Lite said:
Part of me is concerned Andreeva v Shnaider would lead to one of them freezing playing their doubles partner in the final.
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I'm glad this hasn't happened. It would be like watching Nadal play a final against Feliciano Lopez (or Sabalenka against Badosa) The fire would go out of Schnaider and she'd be laughing and grinning all the way through a 2-6 2-6 defeat, followed by extended hugs afterwards and showers of praise between both players at the mic, as those of us at home boot up Sabalenka-Gauff highlights to remind us what we once had.
 
zvelf said:
If Chwalinska beats Andreeva, she will have survived the tougher draw, but up to now, Chwalinska hasn't played a single top 20 player. Raducanu at least beat two top 20 players, both on hot streaks.
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Chwalinska has already dropped a set, so the best she can do here is 2nd best slam win of all time.
 
ScottleeSV said:
I'm glad this hasn't happened. It would be like watching Nadal play a final against Feliciano Lopez (or Sabalenka against Badosa) The fire would go out of Schnaider and she'd be laughing and grinning all the way through a 2-6 2-6 defeat, followed by extended hugs afterwards and showers of praise between both players at the mic, as those of us at home boot up Sabalenka-Gauff highlights to remind us what we once had.
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Also Serena Williams v Wozniacki at the US where they went to dinner together after the final.
 
GhostDog said:
Chwalinska certainly has the game that could frustrate Andreeva, who's been prone to unravel when frustrated.

Power vs guile & finesse. Being that is their first ever slam finals, just might come down to who handles their nerves the best with few deer in the headlights moments.
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The thing is Mirra isn't just about power either, she's a great tactician and has a very high tennis IQ.
She can play the cat and mouse game too. It will be more mental than anything else.
 
PDJ said:
And a Wimbledon wildcard. Currently, I might be wrong, but I think she'd have to qualify.
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Yes, this is what the commentators on TC said. They speculated that if she won the FO, she'd probably get a wildcard. Personally, I think they should grant her one just for making the final. It would be demeaning for a Roland Garros finalist, win or lose, to have to go through the qualies at the next slam.
 
ScentOfDefeat said:
The thing is Mirra isn't just about power either, she's a great tactician and has a very high tennis IQ.
She can play the cat and mouse game too. I will be more mental than anything else.
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Andreeva is oddly capable, but somewhat indecisive about her style. She has a strong serve and good groundstroke power and consistency -- these tools enable effective attacking tennis. But she also has a bit of a passive mentality, and can retreat into retrieving and heavy use of that weird but reliable forehand slice. It will be fascinating to see how she approaches the final against a cagey opponent.
 
JMR said:
Yes, this is what the commentators on TC said. They speculated that if she won the FO, she'd probably get a wildcard. Personally, I think they should grant her one just for making the final. It would be demeaning for a Roland Garros finalist, win or lose, to have to go through the qualies at the next slam.
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I wonder how many British wildcard already assigned/deserving players are there waiting in line.
 
ScottleeSV said:
Chwalinska has already dropped a set, so the best she can do here is 2nd best slam win of all time.
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Lamens (Qualies), Zheng, Mertens, Sakkari, Parry, Kalinskaya, Shnaider - I would say Chwalinska's opposition has been a bit tougher than Raducanu's. Of course Zheng was out of form but she's the Olympic Champion at RG. Raducanu had Bencic who had just won the Olympics on HC. Both have played Sakkari during their run. Outside of that I'd say Chwalinska's opposition has been tougher round for round than Raducanu, but probably not by a huge amount overall. If Chwalinska can beat Andreeva it'll be a more impressive win I'd say quality wise but Raducanu was also much younger.

Also, during their runs neither of them beat (or will have beaten in Chwalinska's case) a GS singles champion. The achievements are amazing but not as amazing as if they had to face the top seeds to do so - essentially others did their dirty work even if that's how the cookie crumbles draw wise.
 
Opening betting odds that I see is Andreeva has a 79% chance of winning. That sounds about right. People are rooting for the big underdog Chwalinska, but keep in mind, Mirra just cruised through Cirstea and Kostyuk, two of the hottest players on tour. Out of 13 sets played, people were able to take more than 3 games off of Mirra only in 2 sets. Tennis pundits have been predicting Andreeva to win a slam for years already, and now she's playing the #114 player in the world for one. If you knew nothing about Chwalinska, you'd think Andreeva would be the 95% chance winner.

GhostDog said:
True, just emphasizing that Chwalinska has no power at all compared to Andreeva!

Yep, mental battle for sure.
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Andreeva has more outside pressure to win here, but Chwalinska has more interior pressure to win. Barring serious injury, Andreeva will likely win another slam later. Chwalinska will likely never have another chance.
 
ScentOfDefeat said:
My favourite thing Maja has said during this tournament was when she mentioned the level isn't that much lower in qualifying these days.
The more I watch 100s and 125s, the more I realise this is abolutely true, it's becoming increasingly even across WTA/125 level, and you can watch some pretty good players at that intermediate level. In fact, if you were to put any player between 40 and 100 in qualifying there's really no guarantee they'd make it through to the main draw. The competition is real and pretty tough.
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This seems true... but it's mostly down to the vast majority of the women on tour having very similar play styles. They all swing away from the baseline (some with more pure power, others will a little more accuracy), and whomever is playing better on the day can take the win.

That's why the mental aspect is so important... more on that below...

Automatix said:
I think mental strength is the difference. A lot of the qualifiers have the tools but can't seem to handle pressure and play the big points when needed.
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This! And I think the ones trying to break through (get into the top 100 or 80) for the first time feel a HUGE amount of pressure to try and qualify for a slam. 3rd round qualifying matches are insanely intense.

zvelf said:
Not an excuse but an explanation is that Raducanu, like Vondrousova and Andreescu, faced multiple chronic injury issues after her major win. On top of that, Raducanu winning the U.S. Open in her first year on tour was not prepared for the pressure on her in a huge commercial market famous for awful tabloid journalism that almost certainly affected her mentally for the rest of her career, which none of these other one-off major winners experienced. She played really well those 2 weeks at the USO, but we've only seen flashes of that since like her playing peak Sabalenka close.
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Nah, don't even put Raducanu's name in the same sentence as those two. Vondrousova has been a consistently strong player when healthy, with a long list of solid results. Andreescu had one of the best seasons in recent memory, getting a lot of good results along the way.

Raducanu was an accident. She had no clue what was going on, and that was her biggest asset. Her ignorance (of the pressure) was bliss. All of her (and Fernandez's) opponents simply broke down mentally at the thought of losing to such lowly players.

GhostDog said:
Chwalinska certainly has the game that could frustrate Andreeva, who's been prone to unravel when frustrated. Power vs guile & finesse. Being that is their first ever slam finals, just might come down to who handles their nerves the best with few deer in the headlights moments.
Click to expand...
Andreeva has a lot of mental issues in tough matches, and this is BY FAR the biggest match of her career. If it's even somewhat tight a few games in, she could completely fall apart.

The rankings gap, and Chwalinska having nothing to lose, could really mess with Andreeva.
 
Yesterday I saw that Kostyuk even refused to pose with Andreeva at the start of the match..
Is this a new thing.

No handshake is going on for years but do ukraine players have refused to pose also all these years
 
roysid said:
Yesterday I saw that Kostyuk even refused to pose with Andreeva at the start of the match..
Is this a new thing.

No handshake is going on for years but do ukraine players have refused to pose also all these years
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Does anyone remember a trophy presentation ceremony featuring a Russian/Belarusian and an Ukrainian player? The expected interaction between finalists should be more inevitable in them.
 
Nostradamus said:
they closed the roof today,, why didn't they close the roof duing Sabalenka match ?? is this hate toward Sabalenka because she's russian ??
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First of all Sabalenka isn't Russian. She's from Belarus.
Secondly what RG organizers decide is what is running in their heads that time.
Mainly reactive.

After Saba s match, they played one set of FAA coboli match. There were few drops of rain and they closed the roof.

For wind, usually they don't close.
 
I maintain that the final will be Mirra's to win or lose. It will be in her hands.
I only discovered Wali this F.O. I had never heard of her before.
I must admit I have been very impressed with her game, and poise on the court.
I really like her overall calmness and the way she quietly goes about her business.
I will be cheering for her in future matches.

But shot for shot, Mirra obviously has the advantage and the credentials too.
She may start out cautiously, which is understandable. but if she sees that
Wali is able to stay with her easily like that then she will need to quickly
move into second gear or even third.
She'll need to bump it up until she finds the right level of play.

But let's not forget there's a reason that Mirra is a top 10 player in the world
and Wali a player who hasn't broken the top 100 yet.

If Mirra were to lose (and it is possible) then she would need to have reverted
back to her older and weaker mental state that plagued her before.
In addition to the wonderful game changes I have seen in Mirra this year
she really looks like she has matured on her mental side.
So as long as she can keep her wits about her I see her holding the winners trophy on Saturday.
 
HJ96m6vWYAAvCir
 
Tough to please the local id*ots, isn't it?
Roof closed? ... iT's An UoTdOoR ToUrNaMeNt.
Roof open? ... xEnOpHoBiA
 
JMR said:
Andreeva is oddly capable, but somewhat indecisive about her style. She has a strong serve and good groundstroke power and consistency -- these tools enable effective attacking tennis. But she also has a bit of a passive mentality, and can retreat into retrieving and heavy use of that weird but reliable forehand slice. It will be fascinating to see how she approaches the final against a cagey opponent.
Click to expand...
As I said in my later post, I think it would be a huge mistake for Mirra to get entwined in a cat and mouse with 'wali. If it comes to that then it would be anyone's match.
Mirra needs to play aggressively throughout but with margin of course.
I agree that her mental side will play a large part in the outcome.
 
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