22-and-unders (outside of Alcaraz) Which players are you highest on?

RaulRamirez

Legend
Many of you may follow the up-and-comers more than I do, but of course, some of these players have already had some success.
So, looking at the arbitrary cutoff age 22 (today), what are your thoughts about who will have the best careers out of the following?
I just listed the guys in the top 100 for now, plus a couple talented 17-year-olds. Yes, Carlitos is just 21...and Sinner is now 23...but outside of them, who do you predict will be the player(s) with the most career success? (of the list below, I don't really know #s 43 and 50.)


13. Holger Rune (21)
14. Jack Draper (22)
16. Lorenzo Musetti (22)
19. Arthur Fils (20)
20. Ben Shelton (22)
30. Perricard (20)
31. Lehecka (22)
32. Cobolli (22)
43 Darderi (22)
44. Michelsen (20)
48. Mensik (19)
50. Shang (19)
71. Bu (22)
81. Cazaux (22)

Down the list, there are also a couple 17-year-olds who have made a little noise already: Justin Engel (300s) and Joao Fonseca (500s).

Realizing my predictions are spotty at best, I will "nominate" Mensik, Fonseca and Fils to end up with the most success. Why? Intuition?
 
I think we have entered newest era of power tennis. Without incredible fh and serve, its going to be impossible. Beware those who choose Rune.
I am very unaware of the current young players. All look good, but not great. Except probably Mensik/Fonseca. I am picking Fonseca.
 
I think we have entered newest era of power tennis. Without incredible fh and serve, its going to be impossible. Beware those who choose Rune.
I am very unaware of the current young players. All look good, but not great. Except probably Mensik/Fonseca. I am picking Fonseca.
These new power guys will make Rune and Ruud obsolete.

It will be the consistent ones that are good, but they will all be able to have tank battles.
 
You said the same about Alcaraz and Sinner though, lol.
Yeah, but to be fair, I was right 99% of the time when someone was hyped... and by golly, I am still right in no one is catching big 3 levels ever.

3f6f5fae-330d-45cb-a675-2321c71bfda5_text.gif
 
Fonseca seems to be the one with That Hype (the kind Alcaraz had in 2021 even before the USO) right now, more so than Rune had when they were both at a similar stage. Obvs the Rune hype went crazy after Paris 23 but it still felt like a surprise
 
Missing on Dimitrov like 15 years ago really hurt me mentally lol. Then Bouchard, then FAA, then Shapo. yuck
Well even Sampras gave Dimitrov his blessing. If he gets it wrong, anybody can. I was also on board with Shapo but he's been a disappointment unfortunately. Never saw it for Bouchard but I commend your patriotism, lol. FAA had skills but I thought had a lower celing than Shapo, but he's also underwhelmed.
 
I like Mensik the most out of that group. Big power, solid overall game and seems to have the right mentality.

Rune is probably the most talented of that group but he's a headcase and likely always will be.
Shelton has big upside but his game is too chaotic, Perricard too one dimensional. Like Fils but I don't think he has a big enough game to ever be a slam contender.
Hard to believe that Musetti is still only 22 but he seems like the kind of guy that has already maxed out his ability.

Other than that, I don't see anybody who has the potential to be a perennial slam contender going forward. Mensik is the one guy I see with that potential but he's still a ways off. Fonseca hasn't done anything yet so I have no read on him. Looks like we'll be entering a Big 2 era for a long time, we're already there.
 
Well even Sampras gave Dimitrov his blessing. If he gets it wrong, anybody can. I was also on board with Shapo but he's been a disappointment unfortunately. Never saw it for Bouchard but I commend your patriotism, lol. FAA had skills but I thought had a lower celing than Shapo, but he's also underwhelmed.
Yeah, Canada tennis is one big tease. Even Rao drove me crazy.
 
However, I think we are close to a changing of the guard, little time to see the top 10 filled with players all born in the 2000s.
 
Well even Sampras gave Dimitrov his blessing. If he gets it wrong, anybody can. I was also on board with Shapo but he's been a disappointment unfortunately. Never saw it for Bouchard but I commend your patriotism, lol. FAA had skills but I thought had a lower celing than Shapo, but he's also underwhelmed.

Sampras likes players that play like Sampras. He didn't really think much of Rafa. But then I never understood the Dimitrov hype honestly.

Shapo and FAA were both very promising, but a lack of consistency has plagued them to no end.
 
Mensik, Draper and GMP have all had big breakthroughs this year.

GMP is the biggest unknown given his lack of ATP matches, but it was a good sign to see him tough it out today against Tiafoe.
 
Sampras likes players that play like Sampras. He didn't really think much of Rafa. But then I never understood the Dimitrov hype honestly.

Shapo and FAA were both very promising, but a lack of consistency has plagued them to no end.
Sampras didn't think much of Nadal?? Never knew that. I could see why there was Dimitrov hype after 2014 but he failed to build on that season and progress. Shapo is a big disappointment imo and could have done a lot more.
 
Fonseca seems to be the one with That Hype (the kind Alcaraz had in 2021 even before the USO) right now, more so than Rune had when they were both at a similar stage. Obvs the Rune hype went crazy after Paris 23 but it still felt like a surprise
I second that and Mensik mentioned the Croat vs Djoker last yr looked promising Dino but yeah faded away
 
Many of you may follow the up-and-comers more than I do, but of course, some of these players have already had some success.
So, looking at the arbitrary cutoff age 22 (today), what are your thoughts about who will have the best careers out of the following?
I just listed the guys in the top 100 for now, plus a couple talented 17-year-olds. Yes, Carlitos is just 21...and Sinner is now 23...but outside of them, who do you predict will be the player(s) with the most career success? (of the list below, I don't really know #s 43 and 50.)


13. Holger Rune (21)
14. Jack Draper (22)
16. Lorenzo Musetti (22)
19. Arthur Fils (20)
20. Ben Shelton (22)
30. Perricard (20)
31. Lehecka (22)
32. Cobolli (22)
43 Darderi (22)
44. Michelsen (20)
48. Mensik (19)
50. Shang (19)
71. Bu (22)
81. Cazaux (22)

Down the list, there are also a couple 17-year-olds who have made a little noise already: Justin Engel (300s) and Joao Fonseca (500s).

Realizing my predictions are spotty at best, I will "nominate" Mensik, Fonseca and Fils to end up with the most success. Why? Intuition?
I like most of them.

Rune probably puts things together and shows consistency sooner or later. Not sure how high his ceiling really is.

I've been really impressed with Draper lately--he's improved his defense at his height and the serve has improved as well. There's thing she can add to make him a top 5/slam contender.

Fils plays a monster ball on his FH. He can learn to finish points at the net off of that FH, he will become even more dangerous.

Michelsen has a great return game and a great BH. His serve has improved. He's close to putting it together t make a run at the top 15 next year.

Mensik has been talked about and there's a great deal to look forward to with him.
 
I didn't do some deep analyses or something and haven't watched most of them enough but eye-test wise I see quite some potential in Fils - he's been constantly improving. Then I'm following Fonseca but still not sure if he can find the consistent high form one needs for the very top.
Draper has potential but it feels like it's tough with missing so much already because of injuries and then potential future injuries. And yeah - he needs to up his endurance.
GMP could get very dangerous with that kind of serve but then I don't see him beating the very best more often than not.
Shang impressed me at the Chengdu Open, will be interesting to see what he's capable of.

Musetti, Shelton and Lehecka are ones I've seen a bit more and I feel like they all are missing something to rival Sinner and Alcaraz.

Somehow I haven't seen much of Mensik yet and always when I did, I didn't see him at the potential very top but maybe due to not seeing enough. A lot of people seem to be pretty high on him, so will follow him more in the future.
 
Fonseca is 18 and in the 150s.. another 17yo player looking good is Cinà.. around 600s at the moment.

For the sake of the argument, Cinà just won hist first challenger game at age 17. That makes him the 10th strongest player (by rating) under 19 in the world right now.
 
Fonseca is the real deal.
I agree with you, he's very good on clay courts. Anyway he has 8 months more than Cinà who has just started playing in the pro tour and playing first R16 in a challenger in his life.
Tien on the other hand is 7 months older than Fonseca and playing on average better than him all around (in terms of average results at least).
 
Have you watched Cinà play? What can you tell us about his game? Thanks!
Taken from a recent interview of his;

"In two-three years, I don't know where I see myself in the rankings. I hope to have a level that will allow me to play the important tournaments. In the meantime, I want to do very well in the challengers and climb up the rankings, hopefully as high as possible. Djokovic is the my favorite player. My strokes? I prefer the backhand, we're working a lot on the forehand and I'm improving it more and more, it's becoming my strong shot. Then there's the serve: I need to improve there in my opinion, but I'm practicing a lot ".

I would add that for those who don't know, he is the son of Francesco Cinà, Roberta Vinci's historic coach.

For Italian tennis after the glut of the 2001-2002-2003 classes, which produced players like Sinner, Musetti, Arnaldi, Cobolli, Darderi, Nardi, Zeppieri, Gigante, Bellucci and Passaro, all players either already in the top 100 or already been orbiting the top 100, the subsequent 2004-2005-2006 classes appear not to have produced much in terms of potential talent.

Cinà, who was born in 2007, could reconnect in a few years.
Until last year there was also good talk about Carboni.
While I have always heard great things about Darderi's younger brother, for many insiders he is more talented than his brother Luciano.
 
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To me, Perricard stands out, but young guys can suddenly get distracted and disappear, so I won't believe until he actually wins something big. Michelsen and Mensik are the other guys I'm keeping my eyes on.
 
I like to look at the progress curves over rally length. Frankly the sample sizes are mostly too small but still fit very often the perception.

Terrible numbers for Perricard, Shelton, FAA, Darderi and Mensik which are winning below 48% of the 4-6 rallies and below 45% of the 7-9 range. A relative poor 'rally' package (combining skill, fitness and tactics) makes them perform worse and worse as the rallies go on and on. Indicates the classic serve plus forehand player which usually struggles to improve in other key aspects of the game.

A look at the backhand data seems to confirm that indication, all have negative potency numbers, maybe apart from Mensik°. This means that opponents have a fairly safe target wing which can force lots of inside-outs and free space.




Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-04
Player​
Matches​
RallyLen​
1-3 W%​
4-6 W%​
7-9 W%​
FH/GS​
BH Slice%​
FHP/Match​
BHP/Match​
6​
4.0​
51.2%​
55.1%​
58.2%​
52.9%​
15.3%​
9.8​
3.3​
10​
3.5​
45.1%​
43.5%​
58.0%​
53.1%​
21.3%​
2.9​
-2.9​
40​
3.7​
50.5%​
53.0%​
57.9%​
53.5%​
8.3%​
16.8​
2.5​
8​
4.3​
47.9%​
48.9%​
56.9%​
54.5%​
19.3%​
5.0​
0.6​
8​
4.7​
48.9%​
50.0%​
54.9%​
57.2%​
8.2%​
13.5​
4.2​
13​
4.0​
49.6%​
53.9%​
54.7%​
53.1%​
10.3%​
7.8​
4.0​
66​
4.2​
54.0%​
56.8%​
54.3%​
51.4%​
7.1%​
12.4​
5.9​
51​
4.0​
52.7%​
55.3%​
53.8%​
53.0%​
18.4%​
11.6​
2.7​
48​
4.5​
54.4%​
55.3%​
53.3%​
49.0%​
15.5%​
12.4​
7.1​
14​
4.0​
53.0%​
48.0%​
52.8%​
47.8%​
11.1%​
6.5​
1.3​
16​
3.9​
45.2%​
50.3%​
50.4%​
52.2%​
17.3%​
6.4​
1.8​
30​
3.7​
48.7%​
52.6%​
50.0%​
53.4%​
13.9%​
5.0​
-0.1​
11​
4.2​
48.5%​
47.4%​
49.5%​
50.0%​
14.8%​
5.2​
-0.2​
33​
4.5​
50.5%​
50.7%​
48.7%​
49.4%​
39.3%​
8.8​
2.4​
17​
3.7​
50.0%​
51.1%​
45.3%​
52.6%​
18.2%​
6.3​
0.4​
11​
4.1​
51.2%​
46.3%​
44.4%​
53.7%​
18.5%​
1.5​
-00​
11​
4.5​
50.4%​
47.2%​
42.9%​
55.4%​
18.0%​
8.0​
-0.8​
16​
3.7​
48.2%​
45.8%​
41.6%​
54.5%​
14.4%​
4.8​
-4.6​
16​
3.6​
51.4%​
46.2%​
41.6%​
53.4%​
27.6%​
6.0​
-2.0​
14​
2.9​
51.8%​
48.0%​
38.5%​
54.7%​
32.6%​
-00​
-1.6​

*Took away the - for them -extremely rare 10+ rallies

°Is so young that he has the biggest room to counteract this trend.
 
Last edited:
Rune has an absurdly low 1-3 W% which should improve by serve improvements, smarter serve plus tactics and a deeper return position/more balls in. Here we have the career stats, which some possibly some challengers for Brooksby & Co.

Might have undervalued Fils a bit, even if he has a weak backhand he is holding up well in longer rallies, might be his athleticism as with Machac. Keep in mind that increased fitness will also increase the potency of the strokes to a certain degree as the players get earlier and better to the balls.

Incredible how long the serve rallies are for Brooksby, how little the success rate and how often he uses his backhand. A most peculiar player which has no longer much time to improve but with a surprisingly high potency from both wings.

Alcaraz, Rune, Machac, Draper and Fils are all shorting the exchanges by going big early in contrast to Novak during most of his career, with Sinner being (once again) the nearest counterpart.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-04
Player​
Matches​
RallyLen​
RLen-Serve​
RLen-Return​
1-3 W%​
4-6 W%​
7-9 W%​
FH/GS​
BH Slice%​
FHP/Match​
BHP/Match​
176​
4.0​
4.0​
4.0​
51.3%​
54.9%​
54.5%​
52.8%​
16.3%​
10.4​
2.5​
578​
4.7​
4.6​
4.8​
52.6%​
54.2%​
53.8%​
49.0%​
14.1%​
12.1​
4.4​
22​
3.9​
3.9​
3.8​
47.8%​
50.9%​
53.6%​
47.7%​
10.1%​
3.1​
3.3​
28​
5.2​
5.7​
4.7​
48.5%​
48.1%​
53.6%​
44.7%​
10.0%​
6.1​
6.0​
27​
4.1​
4.1​
4.1​
51.6%​
47.7%​
52.9%​
48.5%​
10.3%​
6.7​
3.1​
202​
4.3​
4.4​
4.3​
53.0%​
53.2%​
52.3%​
51.0%​
6.1%​
9.2​
2.9​
43​
3.7​
3.8​
3.7​
48.8%​
51.1%​
50.7%​
52.2%​
13.6%​
5.4​
-0.5​
68​
3.9​
4.0​
3.9​
48.4%​
51.3%​
50.3%​
54.2%​
16.4%​
8.7​
1.0​
 
I like to look at the progress curves over rally length. Frankly the sample sizes are mostly too small but still fit very often the perception.

Terrible numbers for Perricard, Shelton, FAA, Darderi and Mensik which are winning below 48% of the 4-6 rallies and below 45% of the 7-9 range. A relative poor 'rally' package (combining skill, fitness and tactics) makes them perform worse and worse as the rallies go on and on. Indicates the classic serve plus forehand player which usually struggles to improve in other key aspects of the game.

A look at the backhand data seems to confirm that indication, all have negative potency numbers, maybe apart from Mensik°. This means that opponents have a fairly safe target wing which can force lots of inside-outs and free space.




Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-04
Player​
Matches​
RallyLen​
1-3 W%​
4-6 W%​
7-9 W%​
FH/GS​
BH Slice%​
FHP/Match​
BHP/Match​
6​
4.0​
51.2%​
55.1%​
58.2%​
52.9%​
15.3%​
9.8​
3.3​
10​
3.5​
45.1%​
43.5%​
58.0%​
53.1%​
21.3%​
2.9​
-2.9​
40​
3.7​
50.5%​
53.0%​
57.9%​
53.5%​
8.3%​
16.8​
2.5​
8​
4.3​
47.9%​
48.9%​
56.9%​
54.5%​
19.3%​
5.0​
0.6​
8​
4.7​
48.9%​
50.0%​
54.9%​
57.2%​
8.2%​
13.5​
4.2​
13​
4.0​
49.6%​
53.9%​
54.7%​
53.1%​
10.3%​
7.8​
4.0​
66​
4.2​
54.0%​
56.8%​
54.3%​
51.4%​
7.1%​
12.4​
5.9​
51​
4.0​
52.7%​
55.3%​
53.8%​
53.0%​
18.4%​
11.6​
2.7​
48​
4.5​
54.4%​
55.3%​
53.3%​
49.0%​
15.5%​
12.4​
7.1​
14​
4.0​
53.0%​
48.0%​
52.8%​
47.8%​
11.1%​
6.5​
1.3​
16​
3.9​
45.2%​
50.3%​
50.4%​
52.2%​
17.3%​
6.4​
1.8​
30​
3.7​
48.7%​
52.6%​
50.0%​
53.4%​
13.9%​
5.0​
-0.1​
11​
4.2​
48.5%​
47.4%​
49.5%​
50.0%​
14.8%​
5.2​
-0.2​
33​
4.5​
50.5%​
50.7%​
48.7%​
49.4%​
39.3%​
8.8​
2.4​
17​
3.7​
50.0%​
51.1%​
45.3%​
52.6%​
18.2%​
6.3​
0.4​
11​
4.1​
51.2%​
46.3%​
44.4%​
53.7%​
18.5%​
1.5​
-00​
11​
4.5​
50.4%​
47.2%​
42.9%​
55.4%​
18.0%​
8.0​
-0.8​
16​
3.7​
48.2%​
45.8%​
41.6%​
54.5%​
14.4%​
4.8​
-4.6​
16​
3.6​
51.4%​
46.2%​
41.6%​
53.4%​
27.6%​
6.0​
-2.0​
14​
2.9​
51.8%​
48.0%​
38.5%​
54.7%​
32.6%​
-00​
-1.6​

*Took away the - for them -extremely rare 10+ rallies

°Is so young that he has the biggest room to counteract this trend.
Thanks for the data. Michelsen stands out nicely here among the younger set with a 53.9% winning percentage in 4-6 shot rallies, a 54.7% winning percentage in 7-9 shot rallies, and a BHP/match of 4.0 (Fonseca looks good, too, but we have very limited data for him). I continue to think that if Michelsen can beef up his serve and fitness in the offseason, he can be a big threat next season.
 
Rune has an absurdly low 1-3 W% which should improve by serve improvements, smarter serve plus tactics and a deeper return position/more balls in. Here we have the career stats, which some possibly some challengers for Brooksby & Co.

Might have undervalued Fils a bit, even if he has a weak backhand he is holding up well in longer rallies, might be his athleticism as with Machac. Keep in mind that increased fitness will also increase the potency of the strokes to a certain degree as the players get earlier and better to the balls.

Incredible how long the serve rallies are for Brooksby, how little the success rate and how often he uses his backhand. A most peculiar player which has no longer much time to improve.

Alcaraz, Rune, Machac, Draper and Fils are all shorting the exchanges by going big early in contrast to Novak during most of his career, with Sinner being (once again) the nearest counterpart.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-04
Player​
Matches​
RallyLen​
RLen-Serve​
RLen-Return​
1-3 W%​
4-6 W%​
7-9 W%​
FH/GS​
BH Slice%​
FHP/Match​
BHP/Match​
176​
4.0​
4.0​
4.0​
51.3%​
54.9%​
54.5%​
52.8%​
16.3%​
10.4​
2.5​
578​
4.7​
4.6​
4.8​
52.6%​
54.2%​
53.8%​
49.0%​
14.1%​
12.1​
4.4​
22​
3.9​
3.9​
3.8​
47.8%​
50.9%​
53.6%​
47.7%​
10.1%​
3.1​
3.3​
28​
5.2​
5.7​
4.7​
48.5%​
48.1%​
53.6%​
44.7%​
10.0%​
6.1​
6.0​
27​
4.1​
4.1​
4.1​
51.6%​
47.7%​
52.9%​
48.5%​
10.3%​
6.7​
3.1​
202​
4.3​
4.4​
4.3​
53.0%​
53.2%​
52.3%​
51.0%​
6.1%​
9.2​
2.9​
43​
3.7​
3.8​
3.7​
48.8%​
51.1%​
50.7%​
52.2%​
13.6%​
5.4​
-0.5​
68​
3.9​
4.0​
3.9​
48.4%​
51.3%​
50.3%​
54.2%​
16.4%​
8.7​
1.0​
Only 4 players won slams in the big 3 era.

Murray/Delpo/Cilic/Wawrinka

The question is , is Rune even close to any of them ? Let's see.
Murray made slam semis at 21 years 2 months and top 4 ranking by 22
Delpo made slam semis by 21 years 6 months and top 4 ranking by 22
Cilic made slam semis by 22 years and 4 months and top 4 at age 29
Wawrinka made slam semis directly at age 28 and top 4 by age 28
Rune is 21 and 7 months already. I don't think he is making AO semis so he will be 22 and 2 months by next RG. That leaves just Stan.

Big 3 era was amazing and most likely Sineraz will replicate it so Rune probably is going to go slamless based on today's stats.
 
Rune has an absurdly low 1-3 W% which should improve by serve improvements, smarter serve plus tactics and a deeper return position/more balls in. Here we have the career stats, which some possibly some challengers for Brooksby & Co.

Might have undervalued Fils a bit, even if he has a weak backhand he is holding up well in longer rallies, might be his athleticism as with Machac. Keep in mind that increased fitness will also increase the potency of the strokes to a certain degree as the players get earlier and better to the balls.

Incredible how long the serve rallies are for Brooksby, how little the success rate and how often he uses his backhand. A most peculiar player which has no longer much time to improve but with a surprisingly high potency from both wings.

Alcaraz, Rune, Machac, Draper and Fils are all shorting the exchanges by going big early in contrast to Novak during most of his career, with Sinner being (once again) the nearest counterpart.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-04
Player​
Matches​
RallyLen​
RLen-Serve​
RLen-Return​
1-3 W%​
4-6 W%​
7-9 W%​
FH/GS​
BH Slice%​
FHP/Match​
BHP/Match​
176​
4.0​
4.0​
4.0​
51.3%​
54.9%​
54.5%​
52.8%​
16.3%​
10.4​
2.5​
578​
4.7​
4.6​
4.8​
52.6%​
54.2%​
53.8%​
49.0%​
14.1%​
12.1​
4.4​
22​
3.9​
3.9​
3.8​
47.8%​
50.9%​
53.6%​
47.7%​
10.1%​
3.1​
3.3​
28​
5.2​
5.7​
4.7​
48.5%​
48.1%​
53.6%​
44.7%​
10.0%​
6.1​
6.0​
27​
4.1​
4.1​
4.1​
51.6%​
47.7%​
52.9%​
48.5%​
10.3%​
6.7​
3.1​
202​
4.3​
4.4​
4.3​
53.0%​
53.2%​
52.3%​
51.0%​
6.1%​
9.2​
2.9​
43​
3.7​
3.8​
3.7​
48.8%​
51.1%​
50.7%​
52.2%​
13.6%​
5.4​
-0.5​
68​
3.9​
4.0​
3.9​
48.4%​
51.3%​
50.3%​
54.2%​
16.4%​
8.7​
1.0​
How do you explain that in the service rounds Sinner manages to have a better percentage of winning the point in prolonged rallies than Alcaraz, while in the return rounds the outcome of the match is totally reversed in favor of the Spaniard.

Randomness/variance, or do you think there is a precise technical explanation behind this?
 
Thanks for the data. Michelsen stands out nicely here among the younger set with a 53.9% winning percentage in 4-6 shot rallies, a 54.7% winning percentage in 7-9 shot rallies, and a BHP/match of 4.0 (Fonseca looks good, too, but we have very limited data for him). I continue to think that if Michelsen can beef up his serve and fitness in the offseason, he can be a big threat next season.

Yeah, numbers like that have made me appreciate his game more. His serve must improve a lot if he wants to avoid the Brooksby problem but he tries out a good deal during the matches which indicates willingness to learn. His drop shots might cost him now but show the right spirit and approach.

Alex doesn't get bossed around easily in the rallies although he suffers against elite forehands crosscourt as seen against Sinner.
 
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