22-and-unders (outside of Alcaraz) Which players are you highest on?

[Rovesciarete]

How do you explain that in the service rounds Sinner manages to have a better percentage of winning the point in prolonged rallies than Alcaraz, while in the return rounds the outcome of the match is totally reversed in favor of the Spaniard.

Randomness/variance, or do you think there is a precise technical explanation behind this?

What do you mean with return rounds? Total return points won?

Overall I treat the smaller samples really only grosso modo, handle with care. Sinner and Alcaraz are of course special players and have also far more charted matches.

P.S: Really impressive how guys like Rublev tend to dominate long rallies against most of their peers, shows imho the importance of firepower and movement.

 

[Winner Sinner]

What do you mean with return rounds? Total return points won?

Overall I treat the smaller samples really only grosso modo, handle with care. Sinner and Alcaraz are of course special players and have also far more charted matches.

P.S: Really impressive how guys like Rublev tend to dominate long rallies against most of their peers, shows imho the importance of firepower and movement.

From your graphs, the percentage of points won in prolonged rallies on their serve is higher for Sinner than for Alcaraz, while the percentage of points won in prolonged rallies on their return is higher for Alcaraz than for Sinner.

That's why I was asking you and I was wondering what was the reason for such a reversal between the 2 of them in prolonged exchanges on their serve and return.

 

[Rovesciarete]

From your graphs, the percentage of points won in prolonged rallies on their serve is higher for Sinner than for Alcaraz, while the percentage of points won in prolonged rallies on their return is higher for Alcaraz than for Sinner.

That's why I was asking you and I was wondering what was the reason for such a reversal between the 2 of them in prolonged exchanges on their serve and return.

The tables from Tennis Abstract show aggregate win percentages with Alcaraz having, despite popular perception, shorter rally lengths both after serve and return. Overall I would venture that Sinner is playing big balls into 'safer' zones and doesn't pull the trigger as quickly when the ball is still yellow.

For Djokovic the rend of longer return rallies and fewer points in longer rallies is worrying, showing some physical struggles and likely the impact of the knee injury. The stats of Sinner in 7+ rallies are remarkable high considering his illnesses and injuries. 10+ is rare, but it seems likely that the supreme athleticism of Alcaraz tells there.

Player​ Matches​ RallyLen​ RLen-Serve​ RLen-Return​ 1-3 W%​ 4-6 W%​ 7-9 W%​ 10+ W%​ FH/GS​ BH Slice%​ FHP/Match​ BHP/Match​ Jannik Sinner​ 66​ 4.2​ 4.2​ 4.3​ 54.0%​ 56.8%​ 54.3%​ 55.8%​ 51.4%​ 7.1%​ 12.4​ 5.9​ Novak Djokovic​ 48​ 4.5​ 4.2​ 4.7​ 54.4%​ 55.3%​ 53.3%​ 53.2%​ 49.0%​ 15.5%​ 12.4​ 7.1​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 51​ 4.0​ 4.0​ 4.1​ 52.7%​ 55.3%​ 53.8%​ 57.1%​ 53.0%​ 18.4%​ 11.6​ 2.7​

Rk	Player	M​	RPW​	RPW-InP​	vAce%​	vDF%​	v1st%​	v2nd%​	Brk%​	MdOppRk​	MnOppRk​
3	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	67​	41.6%​	41.5%​	5.0%​	3.6%​	34.3%​	54.5%​	30.9%​	28.0​	55.6​
5	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	53​	40.9%​	42.3%​	7.9%​	3.3%​	32.8%​	54.7%​	28.5%​	29.0​	60.7​
1	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	79​	40.2%​	41.8%​	8.0%​	3.0%​	31.3%​	55.1%​	27.2%​	26.0​	40.4​

Rk	Player	M​	M W-L​	M W%​	SPW​	SPW-InP​	Ace%​	DF%​	DF/2s​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	2%-InP​	Hld%​
1	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	79​	72-7​	91.1%​	70.7%​	69.5%​	9.8%​	2.5%​	6.5%​	61.6%​	79.2%​	57.2%​	61.2%​	91.4%​
5	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	53​	42-11​	79.2%​	68.9%​	68.0%​	8.8%​	2.8%​	7.8%​	64.4%​	75.9%​	56.4%​	61.2%​	86.5%​
3	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	67​	54-13​	80.6%​	68.1%​	67.9%​	6.2%​	2.6%​	7.6%​	66.0%​	73.6%​	57.5%​	62.3%​	86.7%​

All three are not the biggest servers, with Alcaraz a small step below but mighty serve plus players. Even a small advantage after the serve gets efficiently converted into points by those three.

P.S: I recently got the feeling that Sinner is doing a bit of Sampras when he is a break up against a weak returner, trying visibly less to win return points once he is behind.

 

[Winner Sinner]

In the meantime, the Italian Cinà also beat Li Tu (178), entering the QF of a challenger for the first time.
He significantly improves his best ranking (596) and risks ending 2024 with an even better ranking position than Sinner had at his current age (end of 2018).
Only Musetti (end of 2019) in the recent past among Italian tennis players seems unattainable for Cinà.

 

[mfoolb]

In the meantime, the Italian Cinà also beat Li Tu (178), entering the QF of a challenger for the first time.
He significantly improves his best ranking (596) and risks ending 2024 with an even better ranking position than Sinner had at his current age (end of 2018).
Only Musetti (end of 2019) in the recent past among Italian tennis players seems unattainable for Cinà.

He will play the highest seed remaining tonight (2:00 CET).. can't watch it.. too late for me.

 

[buscemi]

In the meantime, the Italian Cinà also beat Li Tu (178), entering the QF of a challenger for the first time.
He significantly improves his best ranking (596) and risks ending 2024 with an even better ranking position than Sinner had at his current age (end of 2018).
Only Musetti (end of 2019) in the recent past among Italian tennis players seems unattainable for Cinà.

Wow! By far the biggest win of his young career. Excited to see how her performs in 2025.

 

[mfoolb]

Wow! By far the biggest win of his young career. Excited to see how her performs in 2025.

If anyone want to take a sneek peek on how he played here is the recording of his win: https://www.atptour.com/en/atp-chal...atsuyama-federico-cina-vs-li-tu/2024/8386/all

 

[GRASScaraz]

Justin Engel is the next Zverev

 

[Rovesciarete]

If anyone want to take a sneek peek on how he played here is the recording of his win: https://www.atptour.com/en/atp-chal...atsuyama-federico-cina-vs-li-tu/2024/8386/all

Like his game, but need data. Funny that 'Fede' Cinà sounds in Chinese almost exactly like Sinner, the final r is often silent.

 

[mfoolb]

Like his game, but need data. Funny that 'Fede' Cinà sounds in Chinese almost exactly like Sinner, the final r is often silent.

I couldn't watch his game yet but he lost in the quarter final (third 2007 to reach one this year).

 

[GRASScaraz]

I couldn't watch his game yet but he lost in the quarter final (third 2007 to reach one this year).

He won more return points but went 1/9 on bps

 

[The Guru]

If Fonseca learns how to serve he's gonna be really good

 

[Sudacafan]

I don't use drugs, and if I did, I would not use them to watch tennis professional players under 22 years old.

 

[mfoolb]

Update on Cinà, he won against two top300 to enter the main draw at the Yokohama Challenger.. he will play round of 32 at 04:20 CET.

He is actually ranked 562, Sinner at the same age closed the year ranked 551 ;-)

 

[ey039524]

Looks like we could have 3 Americans in the NextGen finals:
Alex Michelson (20)
Learner Tien (18, who is from the same area and academy as Alex)
Nishesh Basavareddy (19)

 

[mfoolb]

And Cinà won his third match in a row at Yokohama.

On Challenger TV you can watch maybe how he played the two break points on his serve at 4-4 in the third set.. and after that broke the other player to win 6-4.

He will now play round of 16 against Nakamoto, the players know each other very well and they have also played doubles together as juniors.. lately Nakamoto is not developing his tennis as fast as Cinà.

 

[mfoolb]

New tournament, Yokkaichi Challenger, Cinà won the match vs Tung-Lin Wu (ATP 235) 6-4 6-3 now he waits to know who he's going to play in the round of 16.
At the moment he is 515 in the ATP live ranking a win would project him in the top 500.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Mensik won newcomer of the year.

Went back into history and in last 20 years , 5 guys didn't even make top 30. Jacob Mensik has not proven anything yet. Newcomer nothing. .
Now he is in real world and I will wish him well.

 

[Aabye5]

Mensik won newcomer of the year.

Went back into history and in last 20 years , 5 guys didn't even make top 30. Jacob Mensik has not proven anything yet. Newcomer nothing. .
Now he is in real world and I will wish him well.

Mensik is very deserving of the award. Curious to see if he can pick up the trophy at the NextGen Finals.

 

[travlerajm]

Juan Carlos Prado has a high ceiling due to his Fed fh technique.

 

[RSJfan]

Juan Carlos Prado has a high ceiling due to his Fed fh technique.

What about Inigo Montoya. He’s very goal oriented.

 

[AmericanTwist]

mensik would be my pick

 

[travlerajm]

Juan Carlos Prado has a high ceiling due to his Fed fh technique.

Currently 11th highest ranked teenager.

I expect he will leapfrog most of the guys ahead of him within 3 years.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I like to look at the progress curves over rally length. Frankly the sample sizes are mostly too small but still fit very often the perception.

Terrible numbers for Perricard, Shelton, FAA, Darderi and Mensik which are winning below 48% of the 4-6 rallies and below 45% of the 7-9 range. A relative poor 'rally' package (combining skill, fitness and tactics) makes them perform worse and worse as the rallies go on and on. Indicates the classic serve plus forehand player which usually struggles to improve in other key aspects of the game.

Mensik continues to suffer in longer rallies while Fonseca soars. FAA was in the first template, Alcaraz and Sinner in the second.

A look at the backhand data seems to confirm that indication, all have negative potency numbers, maybe apart from Mensik°. This means that opponents have a fairly safe target wing which can force lots of inside-outs and free space.

Fonseca’s backhand looks promising and he can slice well. Reminds me most of Alcaraz in this specific regard, great combo to have.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Mensik continues to suffer in longer rallies while Fonseca soars. FAA was in the first template, Alcaraz and Sinner in the second.




Fonseca’s backhand looks promising and he can slice well. Reminds me most of Alcaraz in this specific regard, great combo to have.

I was also impressed by Fonseca's quality of service, this was already the case when I saw him in action in the Davis Cup qualifying round in Bologna.
His first serve travels constantly above 210 kilometers per hour, with peaks that even reach around 220.
To say Sinner at the same age (2019) absolutely did not have such a powerful and incisive service.
Impressive not only in relation to his age but also to his height, the Brazilian at first glance I don't think reaches 1.85 meters.

 

[Subway Tennis]

Basavareddy is fun to watch. It’s great to see a guy come along who knows exactly how to punish an appalling powerpuff second serve. The guy smacks the felt off the ball but there a tactics behind it, and he is good at sending a message and building pressure against an opponent.

 

[Aabye5]

Mensik is very deserving of the award. Curious to see if he can pick up the trophy at the NextGen Finals.

The answer is flatly 'no'. He's really struggled in Jeddah.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Mensik continues to suffer in longer rallies while Fonseca soars. FAA was in the first template, Alcaraz and Sinner in the second.




Fonseca’s backhand looks promising and he can slice well. Reminds me most of Alcaraz in this specific regard, great combo to have.

A lot of people are saying he reminds them of alcaraz.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I was also impressed by Fonseca's quality of service, this was already the case when I saw him in action in the Davis Cup qualifying round in Bologna.
His first serve travels constantly above 210 kilometers per hour, with peaks that even reach around 220.

Fonseca seems to have had a similar, if not as extreme, growth curve as Alcaraz. Looks pretty bulky and strong, which helps with the serve and body type similar to Federer.

The taller chaps tend to build muscles later, although Tsitispas and maybe Zverev were quite precocious.

 

[Rosstour]

Missing on Dimitrov like 15 years ago really hurt me mentally lol. Then Bouchard, then FAA, then Shapo. yuck

Shapo is 25 and is back in the top 60 after his incredible performances of late. There's still time left. Not a lot, but there's time.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Shapo is 25 and is back in the top 60 after his incredible performances of late. There's still time left. Not a lot, but there's time.

 

[Rosstour]

You've seen turkeys win slams before. Shapo has the game to beat anyone really. Won't be surprised to see him making deep runs in 2025

 

[socallefty]

Fonseca seems to have had a similar, if not as extreme, growth curve as Alcaraz. Looks pretty bulky and strong, which helps with the serve and body type similar to Federer.

The taller chaps tend to build muscles later, although Tsitispas and maybe Zverev were quite precocious.

Teenagers from the US, Spain and Brazil seem to be muscular at a young age and have done well at ATP tournaments as teenagers. I wonder why?

What drugs are used in Tennis: Facts & Figures

www.antidopingdatabase.com

DOPING CASES BY COUNTRY​

USA is the country with the most doping cases in tennis. Spain and Brazil follow closely behind in the statistics, emphasizing the importance of a united global effort to combat doping in tennis.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Teenagers from the US, Spain and Brazil seem to be muscular at a young age and have done well at ATP tournaments as teenagers. I wonder why?

What drugs are used in Tennis: Facts & Figures

www.antidopingdatabase.com

DOPING CASES BY COUNTRY​

USA is the country with the most doping cases in tennis. Spain and Brazil follow closely behind in the statistics, emphasizing the importance of a united global effort to combat doping in tennis

USA and Brazil have very large populations, Spains stands out a bit. Not too convinced about the following argument and the logic that it underscores something:

Cannabis: The Foremost Doping Concern in Tennis​

Within the sport of tennis, Cannabis emerges as the most common banned substance, affecting a staggering 22% of players among more than 100 registered doping sanctions. The statistics, provided in 2020, indicate that players from France constitute the highest number of offenders, followed closely by athletes from the USA and Germany.


While the use of Cannabis in tennis may raise eyebrows, it underscores the need for comprehensive anti-doping education among athletes and stringent testing protocols to maintain the sport's integrity. Tennis authorities must continually work to educate players about the consequences of doping and its impact on their careers and the sport's reputation.#

A business will always try to increase revenue and margins....

 

[Incognito]

Sampras likes players that play like Sampras. He didn't really think much of Rafa.

Pete said Rafa would do well in any era because of his movement. Pete said this during AO 2014 when Rafa was playing Fed.

 

[Lleytonstation]

You've seen turkeys win slams before. Shapo has the game to beat anyone really. Won't be surprised to see him making deep runs in 2025

Yeah, just to spite me. But to be honest... if he does find his game and have a Fritz breakout season...

 

[junior74]

Shelton is impressive now and then, but I fear he is another Shapo.

 

[Golden-24]

There are a lot of interesting talented players under 21 outside of the top-100. Buse, Debru, Blockx, Quinn, Landaluce, Kym and of course Tien. Some of them will break into the top-100 soon enough.

 

[Aabye5]

Pete said Rafa would do well in any era because of his movement. Pete said this during AO 2014 when Rafa was playing Fed.

Yes, Pete changed his tune as Rafa (and Novak) became more successful, but his early comments were pretty dismissive.

 

[Aabye5]

Shelton is impressive now and then, but I fear he is another Shapo.

Why? They seem very different.

Shapo has a higher ceiling, but Shelton is more consistent. Shelton has a very clear gameplan, Shapo has changed with each coach.

 

[junior74]

Why? They seem very different.

Shapo has a higher ceiling, but Shelton is more consistent. Shelton has a very clear gameplan, Shapo has changed with each coach.

I see them as quite similar. Heavy, spinny games. Big hitting - questionable shot selection. I saw Shelton play Sinner in Wimbledon this summer. He impressed me. I have never seen anyone hit that hard on the ball, but he was super inconsistent and Sinner didn't have to do much to beat him in straight sets. I really hope Shelton can improve further and cool off a little on court.

 

[Rosstour]

I see them as quite similar. Heavy, spinny games. Big hitting - questionable shot selection. I saw Shelton play Sinner in Wimbledon this summer. He impressed me. I have never seen anyone hit that hard on the ball, but he was super inconsistent and Sinner didn't have to do much to beat him in straight sets. I really hope Shelton can improve further and cool off a little on court.

That's a broad similarity, and that's where it ends.

Shapo has technically sound and extremely dynamic, even beautiful strokes. His agility and verticality on court is unmatched in history and he hits absolutely huge of both wings and serve. He bounces and flies, Shelton is mostly ground bound.

Shelton plays like Nadal outside of his massive serve, while Shapo is much more like Federer.

 

[junior74]

That's a broad similarity, and that's where it ends.

Shapo has technically sound and extremely dynamic, even beautiful strokes. His agility and verticality on court is unmatched in history and he hits absolutely huge of both wings and serve. He bounces and flies, Shelton is mostly ground bound.

Shelton plays like Nadal outside of his massive serve, while Shapo is much more like Federer.

When I said "another Shapo" I was alluding to the boom breakthrough, big hype and then being a top 20-50 guy with no results. Right now, they are 21 and 56.
We'll see. They both strike me as players who go all in too early in the rally, because they lack consistency and precision needed to construct points. And they become stressful on big points, so they go for too much too soon. I may be wrong.

 

[Paulo Slice]

João Fonseca
Mpetshi Perricard
Ben Shelton
Mensik
Fils

 

[DSH]

Many of you may follow the up-and-comers more than I do, but of course, some of these players have already had some success.
So, looking at the arbitrary cutoff age 22 (today), what are your thoughts about who will have the best careers out of the following?
I just listed the guys in the top 100 for now, plus a couple talented 17-year-olds. Yes, Carlitos is just 21...and Sinner is now 23...but outside of them, who do you predict will be the player(s) with the most career success? (of the list below, I don't really know #s 43 and 50.)


13. Holger Rune (21)
14. Jack Draper (22)
16. Lorenzo Musetti (22)
19. Arthur Fils (20)
20. Ben Shelton (22)
30. Perricard (20)
31. Lehecka (22)
32. Cobolli (22)
43 Darderi (22)
44. Michelsen (20)
48. Mensik (19)
50. Shang (19)
71. Bu (22)
81. Cazaux (22)

Down the list, there are also a couple 17-year-olds who have made a little noise already: Justin Engel (300s) and Joao Fonseca (500s).

Realizing my predictions are spotty at best, I will "nominate" Mensik, Fonseca and Fils to end up with the most success. Why? Intuition?

Fonseca is the chosen one, without a doubt.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Federico Cina claimed his second title on the ITF M15 circuit in Sharm El Sheikh, capping off a perfect week in Egypt. The Italian tennis player demonstrated great mental and technical solidity, overcoming all his opponents in a path that saw him as the protagonist from the first round to the final victory.
This is the second ITF title in his career for the Italian, after the one won in Buzău last September.
Cinà will also be involved next week in the Challenger in Hersonissos, Greece, thanks to a Wild Card and where he will challenge Henry Searle on his debut.

The path to the title
China's journey began on February 26 with a convincing success in the first round against the Bulgarian Stefan Ivanov, eliminated with a clear 6-3, 6-2. A solid performance that showcased the Italian's qualities since his debut in the Egyptian tournament.
In the next round, on February 27, Cina faced Greece's Ioannis Kountourakis in the round of 16. Also in this case, the victory came in two sets with a score of 6-3, 6-4, confirming the excellent form of the Italian tennis player.
The real test of character came in the quarter-finals on February 28, when China had to face the Indian Aleksandre Bakshi. After losing the first set 5-7, the Italian showed great determination by completely turning the match around and prevailing in the following two sets 7-6, 6-3, thus earning access to the semi-final.

The decisive phases of the tournament
In the semi-final, played yesterday, Cina faced the Georgian Saba Purtseladze. With a convincing performance, the Italian reached the final by winning in two sets with a score of 7-6, 6-3, showing great solidity in the crucial moments of the match.
The final this morning pitted China against the American Martin Damm. In a hard-fought match characterized by two tie-breaks, the Italian managed to prevail with a score of 7-6 (3), 7-6 (3), demonstrating great clarity in the decisive moments and thus winning his second title on the ITF M15 circuit.

 

[Rovesciarete]

First the data, then the comment:

7-9 W% Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2025-02-24

Player​ Matches​ RLen-Serve​ RLen-Return​ 1-3 W%​ 4-6 W%​ 7-9 W%​ 10+ W%​ FHP/Match​ BHP/Match​ Learner Tien​ 10​ 5.2​ 4.2​ 45.9%​ 52.6%​ 56.7%​ 54.6%​ 9.5​ 1.7​ Flavio Cobolli​ 14​ 3.7​ 3.4​ 44.9%​ 42.2%​ 56.7%​ 48.6%​ 3.6​ -4.1​ Juncheng Shang​ 8​ 4.8​ 4.4​ 47.5%​ 46.8%​ 55.1%​ 55.1%​ 11.8​ 4.1​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 59​ 3.9​ 4.1​ 52.7%​ 56.0%​ 54.9%​ 57.3%​ 12.0​ 3.0​ Jannik Sinner​ 64​ 4.0​ 4.2​ 54.5%​ 57.6%​ 54.6%​ 58.0%​ 13.3​ 6.8​ Joao Fonseca​ 21​ 3.5​ 3.5​ 50.9%​ 50.7%​ 54.3%​ 55.8%​ 8.0​ 1.6​ Jack Draper​ 14​ 4.0​ 3.9​ 52.9%​ 46.4%​ 52.8%​ 48.1%​ 6.6​ 1.4​ Aleksandar Kovacevic​ 5​ 3.4​ 3.3​ 51.3%​ 43.0%​ 52.7%​ 56.0%​ 5.4​ 0.4​ Bu Yunchaokete​ 8​ 4.6​ 4.1​ 46.8%​ 50.6%​ 52.6%​ 52.4%​ 8.8​ 1.8​ Alex Michelsen​ 16​ 4.0​ 3.7​ 48.8%​ 51.9%​ 52.3%​ 49.5%​ 5.7​ 3.9​ Arthur Fils​ 29​ 3.7​ 3.5​ 49.3%​ 54.2%​ 52.3%​ 51.3%​ 6.1​ -0.1​ Lorenzo Musetti​ 38​ 4.6​ 4.3​ 50.2%​ 51.5%​ 50.0%​ 51.2%​ 9.4​ 2.1​ Nishesh Basavareddy​ 20​ 4.4​ 4.2​ 50.5%​ 55.5%​ 49.4%​ 49.5%​ 8.6​ 6.5​ Holger Rune​ 20​ 4.0​ 3.8​ 44.8%​ 51.4%​ 47.8%​ 44.3%​ 6.9​ -0.5​ Matteo Arnaldi​ 10​ 3.8​ 4.5​ 49.6%​ 49.1%​ 46.9%​ 48.0%​ 3.9​ 0.9​ Ben Shelton​ 18​ 3.3​ 3.7​ 50.4%​ 45.6%​ 44.2%​ 43.6%​ 4.4​ -2.0​ Jesper De Jong​ 9​ 4.4​ 4.4​ 53.5%​ 50.3%​ 43.7%​ 42.5%​ 5.7​ -1.2​ Jiri Lehecka​ 20​ 3.4​ 3.6​ 51.7%​ 47.9%​ 43.2%​ 45.4%​ 3.8​ -0.8​ Jakub Mensik​ 14​ 3.6​ 3.9​ 51.7%​ 45.4%​ 42.5%​ 44.1%​ 1.3​ 0.9​ Luciano Darderi​ 9​ 4.4​ 4.4​ 48.0%​ 47.2%​ 39.9%​ 55.9%​ 6.5​ -1.7​ Brandon Nakashima​ 9​ 4.4​ 4.1​ 52.3%​ 45.3%​ 39.3%​ 49.6%​ 3.3​ 0.8​ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard​ 22​ 2.4​ 3.3​ 52.2%​ 45.1%​ 35.9%​ 50.4%​ -0.5​ -2.0​

 

[Rovesciarete]

Too little data for some, but much meets the eye test:

1) Tien struggles to win the shortest points and needs to finish points with the strong forehand, ditto Shang.*
2) Fonseca and Fils are very aggressive but the former is able to win a lot more long rallies. For me a sign of great quality, plus nice forehand potency. Fils struggles with his relative weak backhand.
3) Draper stands out with his strong serve-return dynamic but suffers in longish rallies and the 4-6% range. If his athleticism improves a lot it will mean trouble for the tour.
4) Lehecka, Mensik and Shelton are very aggressive and try to win quickly and have a terrible record in long rallies. Big boy tennis which will cause much trouble to the better players.
5) Rune especially clowns around with his serve-return approach.
6) Musetti is very regular but not outstanding in anything bar his forehand. Hardcourt drags down his performance on the natural surfaces.
7) Basavareddy has strong stats and his baseline potency really stands out. Needs more games against decent opposition, just like Tien.
8) Cobolli, Darderi and Arnaldi look like decent Italian prospects but not elite. Still some time for the trio.
9) Tall Michelsen struggles to get serve as his height should imply. Good fundamentals for development. A black horse for me for quite some time, way overlooked.

*A weak serve pushes potency numbers to a certain extent, as the player doesn't get cheap served points. He needs to work for them with his forehand. Tien, Shang, Musetti, Basavereddy and even Michelsen seem to fall into that category.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Too little data for some, but much meets the eye test:

1) Tien struggles to win the shortest points and needs to finish points with the strong forehand, ditto Shang.*
2) Fonseca and Fils are very aggressive but the former is able to win a lot more long rallies. For me a sign of great quality, plus nice forehand potency. Fils struggles with his relative weak backhand.
3) Draper stands out with his strong serve-return dynamic but suffers in longish rallies and the 4-6% range.
4) Lehecka, Mensik and Shelton are very aggressive and try to win quickly and have a terrible record in long rallies. Big boy tennis which will cause much trouble to the better players.
5) Rune especially clowns around with his serve-return approach.
6) Musetti is very regular but not outstanding in anything bar his forehand.
7) Basavareddy has strong stats and his baseline potency really stands out. Needs more games against decent opposition, just like Tien.
8) Cobolli, Darderi and Arnaldi look like decent Italian prospects but not elite. Still some time for the trio.
9) Tall Michelsen struggles to get serve as his height should imply. Good fundamentals for development. A black horse for me for quite some time, way overlooked.

*A weak serve pushes potency numbers to a certain extent as the player doesn't get cheap points. He needs to work for them with his forehand. Tien, Shang, Musetti, Basavereddy and even Michelsen seem to fall into that category.

It's always very strange to read that the forehand is Musetti's best shot, but according to the ratings it's exactly like that.
Obviously it's strange because it has an excessively wide opening, and it's also a stylistically ugly shot to look at, unlike his extremely elegant one-handed backhand.

PS
Musetti's return is also one of the most solid on the circuit.

 

[nolefam_2024]

First the data, then the comment:

7-9 W% Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2025-02-24

Player​ Matches​ RLen-Serve​ RLen-Return​ 1-3 W%​ 4-6 W%​ 7-9 W%​ 10+ W%​ FHP/Match​ BHP/Match​ Learner Tien​ 10​ 5.2​ 4.2​ 45.9%​ 52.6%​ 56.7%​ 54.6%​ 9.5​ 1.7​ Flavio Cobolli​ 14​ 3.7​ 3.4​ 44.9%​ 42.2%​ 56.7%​ 48.6%​ 3.6​ -4.1​ Juncheng Shang​ 8​ 4.8​ 4.4​ 47.5%​ 46.8%​ 55.1%​ 55.1%​ 11.8​ 4.1​ Carlos Alcaraz​ 59​ 3.9​ 4.1​ 52.7%​ 56.0%​ 54.9%​ 57.3%​ 12.0​ 3.0​ Jannik Sinner​ 64​ 4.0​ 4.2​ 54.5%​ 57.6%​ 54.6%​ 58.0%​ 13.3​ 6.8​ Joao Fonseca​ 21​ 3.5​ 3.5​ 50.9%​ 50.7%​ 54.3%​ 55.8%​ 8.0​ 1.6​ Jack Draper​ 14​ 4.0​ 3.9​ 52.9%​ 46.4%​ 52.8%​ 48.1%​ 6.6​ 1.4​ Aleksandar Kovacevic​ 5​ 3.4​ 3.3​ 51.3%​ 43.0%​ 52.7%​ 56.0%​ 5.4​ 0.4​ Bu Yunchaokete​ 8​ 4.6​ 4.1​ 46.8%​ 50.6%​ 52.6%​ 52.4%​ 8.8​ 1.8​ Alex Michelsen​ 16​ 4.0​ 3.7​ 48.8%​ 51.9%​ 52.3%​ 49.5%​ 5.7​ 3.9​ Arthur Fils​ 29​ 3.7​ 3.5​ 49.3%​ 54.2%​ 52.3%​ 51.3%​ 6.1​ -0.1​ Lorenzo Musetti​ 38​ 4.6​ 4.3​ 50.2%​ 51.5%​ 50.0%​ 51.2%​ 9.4​ 2.1​ Nishesh Basavareddy​ 20​ 4.4​ 4.2​ 50.5%​ 55.5%​ 49.4%​ 49.5%​ 8.6​ 6.5​ Holger Rune​ 20​ 4.0​ 3.8​ 44.8%​ 51.4%​ 47.8%​ 44.3%​ 6.9​ -0.5​ Matteo Arnaldi​ 10​ 3.8​ 4.5​ 49.6%​ 49.1%​ 46.9%​ 48.0%​ 3.9​ 0.9​ Ben Shelton​ 18​ 3.3​ 3.7​ 50.4%​ 45.6%​ 44.2%​ 43.6%​ 4.4​ -2.0​ Jesper De Jong​ 9​ 4.4​ 4.4​ 53.5%​ 50.3%​ 43.7%​ 42.5%​ 5.7​ -1.2​ Jiri Lehecka​ 20​ 3.4​ 3.6​ 51.7%​ 47.9%​ 43.2%​ 45.4%​ 3.8​ -0.8​ Jakub Mensik​ 14​ 3.6​ 3.9​ 51.7%​ 45.4%​ 42.5%​ 44.1%​ 1.3​ 0.9​ Luciano Darderi​ 9​ 4.4​ 4.4​ 48.0%​ 47.2%​ 39.9%​ 55.9%​ 6.5​ -1.7​ Brandon Nakashima​ 9​ 4.4​ 4.1​ 52.3%​ 45.3%​ 39.3%​ 49.6%​ 3.3​ 0.8​ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard​ 22​ 2.4​ 3.3​ 52.2%​ 45.1%​ 35.9%​ 50.4%​ -0.5​ -2.0​

Fonseca is insane in winning above 50% in any rally length. I am guessing Nadal might have done similar at his age but not sure. Even Fonseca serve is stronger..