4/8 M1000s won by Big 3 this year. A change of guard?

Would a non-Big3 Paris champ be a major sign that a shift is taking place at the top?

  • Yes, Bearerer and NextGen are taking over

    Votes: 7 21.9%

  • No, of course one M1000 - especially Paris - can't be considered as a measure of a big change

    Votes: 10 31.3%

  • Not quite sure... AO will give us all the answers

    Votes: 15 46.9%
  • Total voters
    32
UnderratedSlam

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
Not necessarily.

2019 4/9 or 5/9

2018 5/9

2017 5/9

2016 5/9

2015 7/9

2014 7/9

2013 8/9

2012 8/9

2011 7/9

2010 4/9

2009 6/9

2008 5/9

2007 7/9

2006 6/9 (pre-Djokovic)

2005 8/9 (pre-Djokovic)

2004 3/9 (pre-Djokovic/Nadal)

If Djokovic, Federer or Nadal win Paris in a few weeks then the Big 3 will once again have a 5/9 just as they have 2016-2018. Add to that a complete slam sweep 4/4 and the Big 3 still are firmly in charge. No significant change.

However, Paris is known as the upsets/injuries/skippy event, often won by "outsiders". If Bearerer or someone else wins Paris, then the Big 3 will be at just 4/9, which would be the lowest since 2010.

Would this be a hint that 2020 will give us a first major step in Big 3 being dethroned?
 
UnderratedSlam

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
King No1e said:
Not quite sure. Depends on how they back it up. We've had Sock and Khachanov score one-hit wonders at Paris last 2 years.
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And we've had several 3-in-a-row non-Big3 M1000 streaks since 2017. So this one would be just another.

So it might not mean much.

HOWEVER, if Bearerer wins it...
 
Username_

Username_

Hall of Fame
Djokovic and Nadal see all the youngsters as chumps not worthy of witnessing their true level of tennis and thus tank against them
 
B

buscemi

Hall of Fame
Tough to say. If someone other than the big 3 wins Paris, the only difference between this year and the last 2 years is that Nadal won 1 clay Masters Series title in 2019 vs. 2 in 2017 and 2018. In all 3 years, some combination of the big 3 would have won 3/6 non-clay Masters Series titles.
 
UnderratedSlam

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
buscemi said:
Tough to say. If someone other than the big 3 wins Paris, the only difference between this year and the last 2 years is that Nadal won 1 clay Masters Series title in 2019 vs. 2 in 2017 and 2018. In all 3 years, some combination of the big 3 would have won 3/6 non-clay Masters Series titles.
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Good analysis.

But what if Bearerer wins 3 in a row...?
 
B

buscemi

Hall of Fame
UnderratedSlam said:
Good analysis.

But what if Bearerer wins 3 in a row...?
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That would remind me a bit of Edberg in 1987 when he won Cincinnati, Tokyo, and Stockhom back-to-back-to-back (right after losing in the Canadian Open final to Lendl). Edberg actually made 6/7 finals from Bastad to Stockholm in 1987, losing in the U.S. open SF to Wilander.
 
UnderratedSlam

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
buscemi said:
That would remind me a bit of Edberg in 1987 when he won Cincinnati, Tokyo, and Stockhom back-to-back-to-back (right after losing in the Canadian Open final to Lendl). Edberg actually made 6/7 finals from Bastad to Stockholm in 1987, losing in the U.S. open SF to Wilander.
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Except that Edberg had already won a slam by that point... in 1985. He wasn't a newcomer like Bearerer is a newcomer.

Admittedly, it was a mid-80s AO, which was a bit before AO became an equal slam...

But interesting stats.
 
Lleytonstation

Lleytonstation

Legend
HetTheGreaterer said:
Fed:-
Thiem, Thiem, W/D (Tsitsipas), Rublev, Zverev

Rafa :-
W/D(Federer), Fognini, Tsitsipas

Djok :- Kohlschriber, Bautista Agut, Medvedev, Nadal, Medvedev, Tsitsipas
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.
9/14. So more than half their losses in masters comes from the next gen. 65% seems to be a change in guard. But Med Bear is the only one who has won a master's this year in the next gen unless you want to count Thiem. Then it is two of 8 so far.
 
N

Nadal_King

Rookie
Change is definitely taking place but it's more to do a particular member of new gen stepping up that is medvedev or to some extent thiem but apart from that there isn't much to see also with djokovic decline in best of 3 this year has helped otherwise I really doubt any of the above could stop a great djokovic in a best of 3 but change is permanent will only be accepted if at a grand slam in 2020 a non big 3 member wins which I feel will happen especially with medvedev I think we could see a one of the hardcourt grand slam win.
 
B

BorgTheGOAT

Professional
Still have won 4/4 slams so what exactly has changed? As OP perfectly shows, it was the same in 2017 and 2018 and nothing happened on the slam level where it really counts.
 
Lleytonstation

Lleytonstation

Legend
Third Serve said:
It is really. So is Big Berr (don’t kill me @Lleytonstation).
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How dare you. I am appalled. Big Berr suits him perfectly (as he is not winning anything in the near future with that backhand), and Med Bear is even better as his name literally means bear.

Gummy Berr for Berrettini may be better if he does not improve. But yes, Bearerer is the worst.

Still appalled.
 
Third Serve

Third Serve

Hall of Fame
Lleytonstation said:
How dare you. I am appalled. Big Berr suits him perfectly (as he is not winning anything in the near future with that backhand), and Med Bear is even better as his name literally means bear.

Gummy Berr for Berrettini may be better if he does not improve. But yes, Bearerer is the worst.

Still appalled.
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It doesn’t make any sense, though. What’s the meaning behind “Big Berr”?
 
UnderratedSlam

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
Lleytonstation said:
Yeah... well.
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Ignore them.

One very bored poster moaned on this thread because I call the Russian Bearerer.

(Although I suspect there may be another agenda at hand, maybe just a Fedfan who doesn't always agree with me...)

Imagine a person actually complaining about a nickname...
 
Sudacafan

Sudacafan

G.O.A.T.
UnderratedSlam said:
Not necessarily.

2019 4/9 or 5/9

2018 5/9

2017 5/9

2016 5/9

2015 7/9

2014 7/9

2013 8/9

2012 8/9

2011 7/9

2010 4/9

2009 6/9

2008 5/9

2007 7/9

2006 6/9 (pre-Djokovic)

2005 8/9 (pre-Djokovic)

2004 3/9 (pre-Djokovic/Nadal)

If Djokovic, Federer or Nadal win Paris in a few weeks then the Big 3 will once again have a 5/9 just as they have 2016-2018. Add to that a complete slam sweep 4/4 and the Big 3 still are firmly in charge. No significant change.

However, Paris is known as the upsets/injuries/skippy event, often won by "outsiders". If Bearerer or someone else wins Paris, then the Big 3 will be at just 4/9, which would be the lowest since 2010.

Would this be a hint that 2020 will give us a first major step in Big 3 being dethroned?
Click to expand...
2017, 2018 and 2019 4/4 slams each year.
 
aldeayeah

aldeayeah

Hall of Fame
Wait Bear is supposed to be Medvedev? I thought you mean Berrettini (who has a kinda ursine physique himself)
 
Wurm

Wurm

Rookie
2016 5/9
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Shall we maybe extend this to the big four, since the Masters was the area where that it was a big four was most clearly expressed, in terms of titles won.

Then it goes:

2004 (pre-Rafa, Novak and Murray): 3/9
2005 (pre-Novak and Murray): 8/9
2006 (pre-Novak and Murray): 6/9
2007 (pre-Murray): 7/9
2008: 7/9
2009: 8/9
2010: 6/9
2011: 9/9
2012: 8/9
2013: 9/9
2014: 7/9
2015: 9/9
2016: 8/9
2017: 5/9 (post-Murray)
2018: 5/9 (post-Murray)
2019: 4 or 5/9 (post-Murray)

2010 was a bit of a blip, but Novak didn't win any that year. The tipping point is clearly 2017 - prior to that 2007 was the last year anyone other than the big four (Nalbandian) won multiple Masters in a single season. After Murray won his first only Tsonga managed to win more than 1 prior to 2017.

2020 might finally be the season when this translates into a new slam winner from a generation after Rafa's (Cilic is the baby of that bunch). Here's hoping.
 
jackdaw

jackdaw

Rookie
No,
Nothing will change.
Nadal will win at least 3 slams next year and in 2021.

Medvedev will never win a slam, he is another Dmitrov - a false dawn.


FACTS BABY!
 
ForumMember

ForumMember

Hall of Fame
Wurm said:
Shall we maybe extend this to the big four, since the Masters was the area where that it was a big four was most clearly expressed, in terms of titles won.

Then it goes:

2004 (pre-Rafa, Novak and Murray): 3/9
2005 (pre-Novak and Murray): 8/9
2006 (pre-Novak and Murray): 6/9
2007 (pre-Murray): 7/9
2008: 7/9
2009: 8/9
2010: 6/9
2011: 9/9
2012: 8/9
2013: 9/9
2014: 7/9
2015: 9/9
2016: 8/9
2017: 5/9 (post-Murray)
2018: 5/9 (post-Murray)
2019: 4 or 5/9 (post-Murray)

2010 was a bit of a blip, but Novak didn't win any that year. The tipping point is clearly 2017 - prior to that 2007 was the last year anyone other than the big four (Nalbandian) won multiple Masters in a single season. After Murray won his first only Tsonga managed to win more than 1 prior to 2017.

2020 might finally be the season when this translates into a new slam winner from a generation after Rafa's (Cilic is the baby of that bunch). Here's hoping.
Click to expand...
was going to say that. If talking about masters we have to talk about big 4.. not big 3.
 
BGod

BGod

Legend
The NextGen is struggling with Bo5 format while the veterans see their opportunity at the bigger legacy titles anyway.

So no, the Masters circuit is pretty irrelevant really.

Zverev, Khachanov & Fognini have yet to make a Slam SF. Sock fell off completely, Dimitrov still 0 Finals along with Isner and Medvedev is Medvedev.
 
UnderratedSlam

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
BGod said:
The NextGen is struggling with Bo5 format while the veterans see their opportunity at the bigger legacy titles anyway.

So no, the Masters circuit is pretty irrelevant really.

Zverev, Khachanov & Fognini have yet to make a Slam SF. Sock fell off completely, Dimitrov still 0 Finals along with Isner and Medvedev is Medvedev.
Click to expand...
Zverev and Khazachok will do it, Fognini is a tanker hence why he can't.
 
victorcruz

victorcruz

Professional
Slams slams slams slams is the changing of the guard. We finally had a next gen in a slam final so let's take it from there.
 
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