4 players are controlling the top of tennis right now

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Looking at the last 52 weeks, the 4 players at the top have separated themselves from the rest.

Points wise
Djokovic 9855
Alcaraz 9255
Medvedev 8765
Sinner 8070

All are within 1700 pts from each other.

All 4 have made multiple slam semis. All four have made slam finals. Alcaraz and Sinner have won 1 major each but Medvedev has played 2 major finals.

All 4 were at the tail end of atp finals and wimbledon. But last time 2 of them were not in slam semis was RG last year.

All 4 are masters winners.
Djokovic Medvedev and Alcaraz have won 2. Djokovic also won ATP finals.
Sinner won 1.

All 4 have had periods of dominance.
Medvedev dominance started from post AO. He won 21 of the next 22 matches winning titles in Rotterdam, Dubai, Miami and a final at IW.
Alcaraz dominance started from post AO till Wimbledon. He won 47 of the next 51 matches winning titles in Buenos Aires IW Barcelona Madrid Queens Wimbledon with finals in Rio and later on in Cincinnati. Pretty OP tbh.
Djokovic dominance in last 52 weeks started post Rome, he won 34 of the 35 matches between RG and Turin winning titles in RG, Cincinnati, USO, Paris and ATP finals with final at Wimbledon. Its this run which made Alcaraz look mediocre.
Sinner dominance started in late October and till now. He has won 26 of the 28 matches winning titles in Vienna, Beijing, Australian Open with finals at Turin.

Only RG 2023 was when the final was not contested in these 4 players. Djokovic played Alcaraz in semis but Medvedev had become number 2 by winning Rome.

So the top 4 have virtually stopped every single player from reaching the top now.

Notable exceptions
Ruud - made slam final without facing either of these 4
Rublev - won masters without facing either of these 4
Hurkacz - won masters without facing either of these 4

The trend is very easy to notice. The 3 notable exceptions are guys who have gotten some luck of the draws. These 3 players have very low chance vs current top 4.

Notable other exception is Zverev who reached two slam semis. He did so by beating Alcaraz in one of them and without facing either of these 4 in the other semis. He has not played any big tournament final in last 2 years due to injury and choking.

To sum up :

4/4 slams won by these 4
3/4 slam finals between these 4
ATP finals final between these 4 and all semifinalist are these 4
7 out of 9 masters are won by these 4.
These 4 were mostly fit for the entirety of the 52 weeks. Djokovic skipped IW Miami MC and Shanghai, Alcaraz skipped MC, Sinner skipped Madrid and Medvedev skipped Cincinnati.

The top 4 are here to stay and are looking even stronger than ever.

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nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Comparing this to Fedalovicurray between Wimby 2011 to RG 2012
Djokovic was at 12280 pts
Nadal was at 10060 pts
Federer was at 9435 pts
Murray was at 6980 pts

There was huge gap between these 4 but.

All 4 had not made slam finals. All the finals were only between Djokovic and Nadal and once Nadal was injured Andy Murray played in 3/3 slam finals.
9/9 masters were won between these 4. Nadal won all 2, Djokovic won 2, Federer won 3 and Murray won 2.
Atp finals final was not among these 4. Tsonga was there.
All 4 were healthy. Djokovic had some issues post USOpen but played all but 1 masters till Rome.

Only guys who reached semis outside these 4 were Tsonga in Wimbledon and Ferrer in RG. Both beat one of the top 4 in quarters with Tsonga beating Federer and Ferrer beating Murray. Tsonga also had 4 mp vs Djokovic but he screwed it up.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Med hasn't won a slam in some time now but pretty consistent on HC yes
Medvedev is at his peak physique. At age 27. He is less talented by all 3 but Djokovic is slightly worse than his peak and Alcaraz and Sinner are yet to peak. I hope he wins a slam in next 1 year. Any slam would be fine.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Biggest benefactor of Nadal's injury seems to be Andy Murray. He gobbled up a lot of hardware in Nadal's absence.
Starting with first Wimbledon final, Olympic Gold Medal, a US Open title, career high YE number 3 ranking, and finally Wimbledon title.

Nadal had blocked Murray at USOpen in 2011 and it was pretty dominant win. There 2008 match was a win for Murray but Nadal had played a lot of tennis before USOpen. I am not sure if that match is so big a factor.
Then again Nadal had stopped Murray time after time at Wimbledon but in his absence Murray went 19-1 at SW19 in under a year (Nadal was not absent in 2013 Wimby but was out in R1 due to some knee issue).

I would not be surprised if Murray beat Nadal at AO as he had beaten Fed in 2013 and was looking good in that year while Nadal but it would still be a mild upset.

When Nadal came back in 2013, he never faced Murray until RG 2014. Here pretty average Murray showed up but was thrashed 3,2,1 by Nadal. So Murray's first year as slam winner and dominant player started immediately after Nadal got injured. and lasted for a brief year (2012 Wimby to 2013 Wimby) and second peak started after Nadal had declined completely post 2015 Rogers cup. Biggest benefactor of Nadal's injuries is SABM.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Read it already before, not much to add. Wanted to make a similar thread but you did it better. I would just say that Elo-wise we have right now the Sinner-Djokovic tier and slightly below the Alcaraz-Medvedev one.

We now the clear top4, let's see if they stand fast and tall for another year.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
The new Big 4, but for how long?
:cautious:
If the past is of any importance there is no one who can dominate right now like these 4. In 2011 there was tsonga who tried hard to break and right now there is Zverev who is trying the same.
 

nolefam_2024

Talk Tennis Guru
Not anymore. Until MC it was true.
While Djokovic flopped, Meddy made all 3 finals of big tournaments.
Sinner won AO and Miami.
Alcaraz won IW.

But now Tsitsipas has broken the stronghold. Going through Sinner for the win.
 

vokazu

Hall of Fame
Updated ranking points

1CHNovak Djoković36SRB10035+310Lost in Monte Carlo SF
2CHJannik Sinner22ITA8750+40Lost in Monte Carlo SF
31Carlos Alcaraz20ESP8645
41Daniil Medvedev28RUS7085-80Lost in Monte Carlo R16
 

pasta

Semi-Pro
To me it looks like 4 players are at their "peak" and if underachieving this clay/grass/clay season there might be some "tailspinning" ...
Medvedev
Zverev
Tsitsipas
Ruud


I would look at that 25-28yr. bunch of players to make big push ... and hoping to win 2 out of 3

20-24yr. generation is ready to pounce and officially make another "lost" generation of that 25-28yr. group. 2 is realistic, 3 would be backbreaking ...
"Vets" would be happy with anything and they are still capable ... 1 for TV ages and move on at best !
 
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