40+ 4.0M Nationals Predictions

[schmke]

I just posted my predictions for 40+ 4.0M, see my blog for details, but the interesting detail is that a full 12 teams have a 20% or higher chance of making the semis with a 9-way tie at 2-2 for 4th place a real possibility. Of course, a bunch of teams have a good chance at getting to 3-1 for 4th so one probably will, but wouldn't a big tie at 2-2 be fun?

Oh, the teams likely to advance? Texas, Middle States, Mid-Atlantic, and PNW, but Middle West, New England, Northern, Southern, and NorCal all have a 44% chance or better of advancing.

 

[leech]

I expect a lot of 2-2 matches in this new 4-court format for 40+...wouldn't it be silly if a team that goes undefeated by winning each match 2-2 (finishing 8-8 in courts) can advance to semis over a 3-1 team that has as many as 14 court wins (three 4-0 wins and one 2-2 loss)?

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-fi...

computerratings.blogspot.com

 

[schmke]

I expect a lot of 2-2 matches...wouldn't it be silly if a team that goes undefeated by winning each match 2-2 (finishing 8-8 in courts) can advance to semis over a 3-1 team that has as many as 14 court wins (three 4-0 wins and one 2-2 loss)?

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-fi...

computerratings.blogspot.com

Yep, the "beauty" of a 4 court format. A team with just 3 strong players that can win just 2 courts per match (1S and a doubles court) can win the team match tie-breaker and "win" 2-2 and go 4-0 in round-robin with an 8-8 court record.

You could even have a team go 3-1 with three 2-2 wins and a 4-0 loss and be 6-10 on courts, but advance to the semis if there are just four 3-1 or better teams.

 

[NumbersGuy]

And my money is on Texas, Southern, and Middle West, with Eastern and New England in a virtual dead heat for the fourth position. Let the games begin!

 

[leech]

Whoa, pretty divergent predictions! Must be nice to be Texas... atop both predictions.

 

[schmke]

Early results:

Mid-Atlantic beats Eastern 3-1
Middle States beats NorCal 3-1
Intermountain beats Texas 3-1
Southwest beats Caribbean 4-0
PNW beats SoCal 4-0
New England beats Southern 2-2 on the games lost tie-breaker

 

[schmke]

Day one ends with Intermountain, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, PNW, and New England all 2-0.

Pre-event favorite (in both my and @NumbersGuy predictions) Texas is 0-2 and has an uphill climb.

 

[NumbersGuy]

Yeah they’re not from Houston, NOHO, or Dallas and I guess that does make a difference.

At 0-2 they should be out of it, has a 2-2 team ever made it to Sunday?

 

[schmke]

Yeah they’re not from Houston, NOHO, or Dallas and I guess that does make a difference.

At 0-2 they should be out of it, has a 2-2 team ever made it to Sunday?

They are from Austin, and appear to be a good team, but for what reason I don't know, only one player has played twice, and their top-6 players all only played once on Friday. They seem to be taking the approach to spread playing time around and not ride their best players more, or they don't know who their best players are! Had my simulation (and I imagine your prognosticating) have known they'd take this approach, I would not have forecast them to do as well.

I have 9 players at 3.92 or higher, but they used players at 3.87 or lower 4 times.

 

[NumbersGuy]

Sounds like they were “just happy to be here”. Not uncommon for one’s first Nationals. But, as you say, does not correlate well with success.

 

[schmke]

Sounds like they were “just happy to be here”. Not uncommon for one’s first Nationals. But, as you say, does not correlate well with success.

There is nothing wrong with a "spread it around" approach to Nationals. It just doesn't make handicapping an event very easy.

 

[schmke]

The semi-finalists are:

Southern
Intermountain
Middle States
Middle West

Big surprise was Intermountain, the others were all teams I mentioned and my #2, #5, and #8 most likely to advance. My #3 most likely finished 3-1 in a tie with Middle States and Middle West, losing out on the sets lost tie-breaker. So, three of the top-5 teams were all in my top-5, not too bad.

 

[TennisManiac]

Middle States should win it.

 

[Vox Rationis]

The semi-finalists are:

Southern
Intermountain
Middle States
Middle West

Big surprise was Intermountain, the others were all teams I mentioned and my #2, #5, and #8 most likely to advance. My #3 most likely finished 3-1 in a tie with Middle States and Middle West, losing out on the sets lost tie-breaker. So, three of the top-5 teams were all in my top-5, not too bad.

Intermountain isn’t a surprise if you’re familiar with the captain. He’s another JF from Texas.

 

[ezekiel114]

Middle States should win it.

they are a great team

 

[leech]

Middle States should win it.

Nice prediction...Middle State did win it all, with a sweep over ******* in the finals!

 

[J_R_B]

Middle States won their semi by losing TWO FEWER GAMES is a 2-2 match. Hey USTA, YOU SUCK. BAD. No team should lose a national semifinal because they lost 2 more f-ing games than the other team. This just reinforced that this was the absolute dumbest decision made in a long history of dumb decisions by the USTA. I'm from Middle States and have friends (and enemies, LOL) on that team, so I was pulling for them, but regardless, the fact that it came to that, no matter who ended up the winner, is absolutely disgraceful.

 

[Tiafoe]

Why did USTA do the 4 matches instead of 5? I don't see the rationale behind that decision, and why is it only for certain rating levels?

 

[J_R_B]

Why did USTA do the 4 matches instead of 5? I don't see the rationale behind that decision, and why is it only for certain rating levels?

It's only in 40+, and there is no rationale. It should be obvious to anyone with at least a 3rd grade math competency that using ANY format with an even number of courts is about as stupid as you can possibly be, as if you're actually trying to see how stupid you can be.

 

[schmke]

Middle States won their semi by losing TWO FEWER GAMES is a 2-2 match. Hey USTA, YOU SUCK. BAD. No team should lose a national semifinal because they lost 2 more f-ing games than the other team. This just reinforced that this was the absolute dumbest decision made in a long history of dumb decisions by the USTA. I'm from Middle States and have friends (and enemies, LOL) on that team, so I was pulling for them, but regardless, the fact that it came to that, no matter who ended up the winner, is absolutely disgraceful.

Was secretly hoping they'd be tied on games lost.

 

[J_R_B]

Was secretly hoping they'd be tied on games lost.

The next TB, winner of D1, is actually far fairer than the sets or games lost TBs ahead of it. At least you're designating a single court and saying "this one matters more than the others - make sure you have your best team here", and it doesn't matter if you win it 6-1 6-1 or 6-7 7-6 20-18, if you win the match, you win. Who cares if you lose more sets or more games? I mean, really. Is it really more impressive to smoke the other team as a clear favorite or to battle back from a set down as an underdog to pull out an improbable upset? I'd say the latter is actually more deserving to advance.

Of course, this whole debate can be circumvented HAVING FIVE F-ING COURTS IN A MATCH INSTEAD OF FOUR.

 

[JLyon]

It's only in 40+, and there is no rationale. It should be obvious to anyone with at least a 3rd grade math competency that using ANY format with an even number of courts is about as stupid as you can possibly be, as if you're actually trying to see how stupid you can be.

apparently the survey said 4 courts, who the f**k did they survey, it for sure was not the male captains.

 

[J_R_B]

apparently the survey said 4 courts, who the f**k did they survey, it for sure was not the male captains.

They misinterpreted the survey results, further reinforcing the the notion that they are trying to intentionally be as stupid as possible. Schmke presented previously how the survey results were misinterpreted.