97 US Open. 3 different women- Spirlea, Novotna, Seles losing in quarters/semis after having match point; was Hingis lucky?

[martinezownsclay]

At the 97 US Open 3 different women who probably would have played Hingis lost after having match point. Seles to Spirlea in the quarters, Novotna to Davenport in the quarters, Spirlea to Venus in the semis. Novotna would have played Hingis in the semis, Spirlea would have played Hingis in the final. Seles still would have had to beat Venus in the semis, but I would back her to beat a then extremely raw Venus whose final appearance was really a fluke at that point, despite her awful career head to head vs Venus.

Was Hingis fortunate any of those 3 did not convert their match points to go on to play her? Or was she pretty much certain to have beaten all 3 of them anyway?

 

[buscemi]

Starting with their March 1997 match at the Lipton, Hingis was 7-1 against Novonta, with the two splitting their matches at Wimbledon (Hingis winning in 1997, Novotna winning in 1998). Hingis would go on to beat Novotna in a three setter at the U.S. Open in 1998.

Seles was 5-0 against Seles heading into the 1997 U.S. Open, including a straight set win in San Diego in the summer of 1997. Of course, Seles would win their next two matches, at the French and in Canada in 1998 before Hingis straight setted her at the U.S. Open. Hingis would beat Seles again at the 2000 U.S. Open before losing to her at the 2002 U.S. Open.

Hingis was 6-0 against Spirlea, never dropping a set.

Overall, not much reason to think Hingis would lose to Novotna or Spirlea. And, given their H2H, she'd be the definite favorite over Seles, although Seles did win their next two matches and did eventually notch a win over her at the U.S. Open. Hingis is the clear favorite, but I'd at least give Seles a shot.

 

[martinezownsclay]

Starting with their March 1997 match at the Lipton, Hingis was 7-1 against Novonta, with the two splitting their matches at Wimbledon (Hingis winning in 1997, Novotna winning in 1998). Hingis would go on to beat Novotna in a three setter at the U.S. Open in 1998.

Seles was 5-0 against Seles heading into the 1997 U.S. Open, including a straight set win in San Diego in the summer of 1997. Of course, Seles would win their next two matches, at the French and in Canada in 1998 before Hingis straight setted her at the U.S. Open. Hingis would beat Seles again at the 2000 U.S. Open before losing to her at the 2002 U.S. Open.

Hingis was 6-0 against Spirlea, never dropping a set.

Overall, not much reason to think Hingis would lose to Novotna or Spirlea. And, given their H2H, she'd be the definite favorite over Seles, although Seles did win their next two matches and did eventually notch a win over her at the U.S. Open. Hingis is the clear favorite, but I'd at least give Seles a shot.

On hard courts Novotna did play Hingis tougher than Seles in 1997, whose only competitive matches vs Hingis were on clay that year, which makes me think she might be the bigger threat of those two. As for 1998, Seles in 1998 was in much better shape than 1997 (mid 98 was the fittest she probably ever was post stabbing, and by contrast 1997 was the fattest I ever saw her, she literally looked like a pregnant woman mid year) and Hingis less confident and weaker than 1997. On the other hand it would be hard mentally for Jana to be able to beat Hingis at the US Open after losing to her at Wimbledon on her beloved grass, even if she was injured in that match. I think after the Lipton match that she nearly (and probably should have but choked at the end) won she would have been fairly confident, but less after the Wimbledon defeat.

As for Spirlea, Hingis never had too much trouble with her, some tough sets but that is it. Then again Spirlea was probably never playing as well as she was at the US Open but she sure fell apart under the pressure in that semi final vs Venus. Even if she had won, it would have been a poor performance on the big stage against a then extremely raw and unpolished, even if super talented, opponent. The final she would have had nothing to lose unlike the semis though where despite that it was her first ever slam semi as well, she would have been the clear favorite against the heavily hyped, but total rookie Venus.

Speaking of Spirlea, I think the Venus defeat broke her mentally. She never even made the quarter finals of a slam ever again. In fact she made only two round of 16s after, and 1998 was her last year as even a top 20 player.

 

[buscemi]

On hard courts Novotna did play Hingis tougher than Seles in 1997, whose only competitive matches vs Hingis were on clay that year, which makes me think she might be the bigger threat of those two. As for 1998, Seles in 1998 was in much better shape than 1997 (mid 98 was the fittest she probably ever was post stabbing, and by contrast 1997 was the fattest I ever saw her, she literally looked like a pregnant woman mid year) and Hingis less confident and weaker than 1997. On the other hand it would be hard mentally for Jana to be able to beat Hingis at the US Open after losing to her at Wimbledon on her beloved grass, even if she was injured in that match. I think after the Lipton match that she nearly (and probably should have but choked at the end) won she would have been fairly confident, but less after the Wimbledon defeat.

As for Spirlea, Hingis never had too much trouble with her, some tough sets but that is it. Then again Spirlea was probably never playing as well as she was at the US Open but she sure fell apart under the pressure in that semi final vs Venus. Even if she had won, it would have been a poor performance on the big stage against a then extremely raw and unpolished, even if super talented, opponent. The final she would have had nothing to lose unlike the semis though where despite that it was her first ever slam semi as well, she would have been the clear favorite against the heavily hyped, but total rookie Venus.

Speaking of Spirlea, I think the Venus defeat broke her mentally. She never even made the quarter finals of a slam ever again. In fact she made only two round of 16s after, and 1998 was her last year as even a top 20 player.

Yeah, Seles wasn't in the best shape in 1997, but she had a pretty good summer hard court season:

-made the San Diego final, losing a decent two setter to Hingis;​

-won Manhattan Beach, beating Davenport in the final;​

-won the Canadian Open w/out dropping a set.​

Overall, she had won 14 straight matches and 17/18 matches (only loss to Hingis in San Diego) before losing to Spirlea. And then, right after the U.S. Open, she won Tokyo. She really should have won the Spirlea match. If she did, I think the match would have looked pretty similar to their San Diego final. But I'd still give Seles some shot.

 

[Musterrific]

Wasn't that the tournament where Spirlea had the saltiest press conference after in which she trashed Venus? Also, I think it was also the same UO where after her victory in the final, Hingis picked up some of Venus' hair beads from the court and said "that's all that's left of her." - LOL! Venus didn't seem to have any friends on the court back then...

 

[martinezownsclay]

Yeah, Seles wasn't in the best shape in 1997, but she had a pretty good summer hard court season:

-made the San Diego final, losing a decent two setter to Hingis;​

-won Manhattan Beach, beating Davenport in the final;​

-won the Canadian Open w/out dropping a set.​

Overall, she had won 14 straight matches and 17/18 matches (only loss to Hingis in San Diego) before losing to Spirlea. And then, right after the U.S. Open, she won Tokyo. She really should have won the Spirlea match. If she did, I think the match would have looked pretty similar to their San Diego final. But I'd still give Seles some shot.

Yes the Spirlea loss was a big setback to Seles's momentum in general. She looked significantly fitter (still not fit) that summer than she had at the French and Wimbledon, even though she played pretty well at the French, her fitness was horrendous at that point, but significantly better that summer. And was having a very good summer. She also lucked into the far weaker half with Hingis, Davenport, Novotna all in the other half, with only Majoli who was nowhere near as much a contender on a fast hard court as all of those in her half. I am sure she fully expected to make the final, especialy after surviving Pierce.

 

[martinezownsclay]

Wasn't that the tournament where Spirlea had the saltiest press conference after in which she trashed Venus? Also, I think it was also the same UO where after her victory in the final, Hingis picked up some of Venus' hair beads from the court and said "that's all that's left of her." - LOL! Venus didn't seem to have any friends on the court back then...

That was actually after their match at the Lipton much earlier that year. And yes the Williams weren't popular when they first joined the tour. Their father and the girls themselves were very brash about how great they were. I am biased as I was always a Williams fan, but I never had a problem with that. Anyone who reaches the top eventually has the attitude they are better than they are, even before they become that good. People who don't have that attitude almost right away, almost never make it, with someone like Davenport being a rare exception, and even she lost many future big matches since she didn't have that internalized mindset from Day 1. And in hindsight I think some of the resentment to them being brash and confident from an early age, when yes they weren't that great yes, was internalized racism, since many white girls or young white players had that mindset, and were never judged the same way for it. Hingis had that mindset in 95 and most of 96 when ranked only in the teens or just outside the top 20 and people everyone, atleast the media, all said it was "cute". Graf in 1984 when she was a nobody said Chris and Martina weren't that good, and she would be beating them in a year, and people laughed at it, and praised her for being such a confident kid. But a young black girl has that brash overconfident attitude, claiming she is already the best or #1 when she isn't, and suddenly it is a big problem when Hingis was talking that same way just 2 years earlier.

I did love the disdain Hingis and Venus had for each other though. I hate the fake lovey lovey of all the rivalries today. They eventually respected each other, but that tension never fully went away and I loved it.