A deeper look into the pace of ground strokes of Alcaraz and Sinner and the curious case of Dimitrov outclassing everyone

[ForehandCross]

Note : Speed and RPMs are not everything in tennis. There have been always less successful players who hit with higher speed and rpms than the greatest players of the game. This thread is not about judging superiority or inferiority, its just about seeing if the claims of Sinner and Alcaraz taking the sport to new heights in that domain is true or not.

Its often said that Alcaraz and Sinner has brought the speed of play to another level entirely and its a never seen before level. I was curious so I went down the rabbit hole of finding how they actually compare to previous players. The truth is, as always, not extreme in any shape or form.

Data is scarce and often times conflicting. I am trying to make most of what we have.

Alcaraz and Sinner's Groundstroke speed and RPMs

First before comparisons , lets look at the speed and rpms of Alcaraz and Sinner.
Official ATP website released this article in October 2024, curiously neither Alcaraz nor Sinner figure in top 5 FH speeds by surfaces. All 5 spots belong to players who have been around for a long time, Dimitrov who has been on tour for more than a decade and Rublev who too came to the tour in 2015. And no, this is not sudden new found stroke speeds for either player either.
1. 80 mph = Dimitrov (outdoor hard)
2. 80 mph = Dimitrov (clay)
3. 79 mph = Dimitrov (indoor hard)
4. 79 mph = Fritz (indoor hard)
5. 79 mph = Rublev (indoor hard)


Sinner does figure in the top 5 for BH speeds. Along with Zverev. His speed is indeed impressive. However again it is not like he way way ahead of Zverev outside of clay.
1. 75 mph = Sinner (clay)
2. 73 mph = Sinner (outdoor hard)
3. 73 mph = Sinner (indoor hard)
4. 73 mph = Zverev (clay)
5. 72 mph = Zverev (indoor hard)

Now onto RPMs

Forehand RPMs are dominated by Ruud first, Alcaraz next .

Average Forehand Spin
1. 3291 rpm = Ruud (clay)
2. 3207 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard)
3. 3177 rpm = Alcaraz (outdoor hard)
4. 3141 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard)
5. 3056 rpm = Alcaraz (clay)
6. 3055 rpm = Alcaraz (indoor hard)

However, as we will see later, Alcaraz's FH RPMs are not exactly something that the tour had not seen before.

Interestingly both Sinner and Alcaraz do not even figure in top 5 rpms on BHs
1. 2681 rpm = Dimitrov (clay)
2. 2651 rpm = Ruud (clay)
3. 2606 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard
4. 2580 rpm = Dimitrov (indoor hard)
5. 2576 rpm = Dimitrov (outdoor hard)
6. 2572 rpm = Ruud (indoor hard)
7. 2399 rpm = Dimitrov (grass)

Its Dimitrov dominating the whole thing.


This article does not really give the whole picture for Sinner and Alcaraz stroke speed and RPMs. So we need to mix it with this multiple sources to arrive at our reference values. This article puts Alcaraz FH at 78 MPH and unlike other sources and another article published on the official article on the ATP Site, puts his BH at 73 mph. But lets take the

1. Alcaraz FH - 78 MPH ~3000-3100 RPMs
2. Alcaraz BH - 73 MPH [Doubtful], approx 2000 RPMs as per this paid article
3. Sinner FH - 78 MPH with ~3000 RPMs
4. Sinner BH - 73 MPH with ~2200 RPMs.


Comparisons

First thing first. Dimitrov actually outclasses Sinner and Alcaraz on the whole , he has higher speed on FH, much higher Speed and RPM on the BH. So do guys like Nicholas Jarry. Thiem while a tad bit behind in RPMs(2900-3000 on FH, 2000s on BH) puts both Sinner and Alcaraz to shame with speed

Now lets look at Big 3.

Nadal's FH RPMs have always been noted to be around 3200-3400 RPMS.

One of last injury free years for Nadal was 2021. 2021 Nadal had higher FH and BH RPMs than both 2024 Sinner and Alcaraz. A broken down Nadal of 2023 had 75-76 mph FH. Slower true but not significantly.

Not only that it was not just Nadal, here's an article with screen shots from official ATP stats in Brisbane from 2016 AO season that puts 2016 Federer HC Forehand RPMs(3056) at approximately same of Alcaraz on outdoor HC and his BH RPMs(2565) almost as high as tour highest in 2024. Federer's FH too, has been noted to have speeds around 76-77 MPH on average. Just around 1 Mph Slower than Alcaraz and Sinner. While many sources put Federer FH at 2700-2800 RPMs, that is the result of a singular Analysis that got popularized by NYT's report in 2012 whose number has been quoted for RPM figures for subsequent reports everywhere, the above screen shot is one of the only case of official ATP Stat that I could find.

Djokovic lacks a bit on RPMs(2800 on FH, 1900 on BH) but he is a chameleon. He varies his speed, he changes it as per opponent and goes as high as 81 Mph. Exibhit A , Exhibit B , Exhibit C (Note he went higher than Carlos off of both wings but much lower than his average of 78 MPH on a fast Cincy Court)



Conclusion

Even on tour today and before there have always been guys who hit harder and heavier. For Big 3, the speeds and rpms of both are not exactly out of reach. Its not their stroke play that is something the tour has never seen, its not at all an extreme outlier in all honesty. The Outlier is what their athleticism allows them to do with those strokes in terms of point construction that makes them All time Greats.

And more importantly, RPMs and Stroke speed really doesn't matter much at the highest levels. Medvedev of all people whose RPMs and speed is as low as any on tour, up until the first two sets of 2024 AO final used to beat Sinner comfortably despite Sinner showing similar stroke speed and RPMs as today. Medvedev even handled Alcaraz in USO SF and at Wimbledon.

Djokovic still handles Alcaraz outside grass despite lower RPMs

 

[GuyForget]

Can you delve into the Court Pace Index formula as well, assuming you’re at fait with the coefficient of restitution and friction

 

[mtommer]

I have an even better conclusion. Stop worrying about what people claim. Just enjoy watching tennis.

 

[ForehandCross]

I have an even better conclusion. Stop worrying about what people claim. Just enjoy watching tennis.

Umm I did not do it out of "worry" I did it out of curiosity and since it was a lazy weekend a week ago.

After all this forum is for discussing Tennis correct?

 

[Rovesciarete]

Note : Speed and RPMs are not everything in tennis. There have been always less successful players who hit with higher speed and rpms than the greatest players of the game. This thread is not about judging superiority or inferiority, its just about seeing if the claims of Sinner and Alcaraz taking the sport to new heights in that domain is true or not.

Its often said that Alcaraz and Sinner has brought the speed of play to another level entirely and its a never seen before level. I was curious so I went down the rabbit hole of finding how they actually compare to previous players. The truth is, as always, not extreme in any shape or form.

Data is scarce and often times conflicting. I am trying to make most of what we have.

I enjoyed your post and I have written a bit about this very topic:

1) Sample size and data quality is indeed a problem and the further we go back, the bigger it is.

2) Dimitrov slices far more than most and does so mostly to defend. This eliminates almost all the defensive backhand drives we see from players like Djokovic, Medvedev or Sinner. Classic sample bias. This goes also for players like Musetti and Federer.

3) Deeper positions allow players to play with more spin and speed but gives the opponent still more time. Federer's weight of shot doesn't look outstanding but he was able to deliver it from high up.

4) Shot quality is a black box but fits also the eye test better. It combines a lot of measured variables and Sincaraz+Djokovic dominated it since the introduction.

5) Tennis Abstract has developed baseline potency. It is a very simple calculation and unsurprisingly Sincaraz + Djokovic are also leading there...

 

[Better_Call_Raul]

After all this forum is for discussing Tennis correct?

Sinner vs Djoker Semi-Final:
Heard commentators say that our Djoker's forehand had more mph than the young Sinner's forehand, albeit slightly.
Nevertheless, it is still amazing.
Discuss!

 

[ForehandCross]

I enjoyed your post and I have written a bit about this very topic:

1) Sample size and data quality is indeed a problem and the further we go back, the bigger it is.

2) Dimitrov slices far more than most and does so mostly to defend. This eliminates almost all the defensive backhand drives we see from players like Djokovic, Medvedev or Sinner. Classic sample bias. This goes also for players like Musetti and Federer.

3) Deeper positions allow players to play with more spin and speed but gives the opponent still more time. Federer's weight of shot doesn't look outstanding but he was able to deliver it from high up.

4) Shot quality is a black box but fits also the eye test better. It combines a lot of measured variables and Sincaraz+Djokovic dominated it since the introduction.

5) Tennis Abstract has developed baseline potency. It is a very simple calculation and unsurprisingly Sincaraz + Djokovic are also leading there...

While Dimitrov's topspin BH rpms and speed calculation can definitely be a case of under sampling against the tour which probably slices less than 10% of their BH as slices, its his FH speed averaging at 80-81 mph that caught my eye, his RPMs there isn't shabby too.

As for 4 and 5 absolutely agree. Sinner Alcaraz might end up as top 5 Baseliners of all time when its said and done. All I am saying is their speed and heaviness of the stroke is not the primary deciding factor, its something the tour had seen before, its their athleticism, tennis sense and amazing shot tolerance that drives that. I feel many tennis pundits are getting carried away with talks of them speeding up the game.

Can you delve into the Court Pace Index formula as well, assuming you’re at fait with the coefficient of restitution and friction

I can look into it, but this will be a new area for me all together.

Sinner vs Djoker Semi-Final:
Heard commentators say that our Djoker's forehand had more mph than the young Sinner's forehand, albeit slightly.
Nevertheless, it is still amazing.
Discuss!

Will Carlos win 68 or 69 slams ? Hurr Durr lets discuss.

 

[TennisTurkey]

5) Tennis Abstract has developed baseline potency. It is a very simple calculation and unsurprisingly Sincaraz + Djokovic are also leading there...

I haven't looked at Tennis Abstract's methodology but definitely this. If the stats people are looking at aren't reflecting that Sinneraz are the best then the stats are wrong / incomplete / irrelevant etc. It's obvious watching them that they're the best from the baseline (where most modern tennis is played) and they dominate the big events. If stats don't reflect that domination then it's a problem with the stats.

It's like golf. There used to be a very weak to no correlation between the old school golf stats (like fairway %, GIR % etc) and the best players who won the most money, tournaments and had the highest world rankings.

People used to say stuff like how good someone is can't be explained in stats; no, the stats were rubbish. Mark Broadie invented the strokes gained methodology and hey presto, the person with the best total strokes gained wins the tournament, the guys with the best overall season have the best strokes gained etc. You can also break strokes gained down between individual components like driving, approach play, short game and putting (similar to if you could do that for serving, forehand, backhand etc).

Tennis is simply waiting for its strokes gained eureka moment (maybe TA nailed it, not sure).

 

[ForehandCross]

I haven't looked at Tennis Abstract's methodology but definitely this. If the stats people are looking at aren't reflecting that Sinneraz are the best then the stats are wrong / incomplete / irrelevant etc. It's obvious watching them that they're the best from the baseline (where most modern tennis is played) and they dominate the big events. If stats don't reflect that domination then it's a problem with the stats.

I am not sure where the disconnect in interpreting my OP is happening for you guys.

I am not denying Sinner and Alcaraz are the best baseliners today and probably going to become top 5 ever eventually.

I am just proposing that their stroke speed and rpms are not the outliers that they been claimed to be. It's other factors, including athleticism and shot tolerance that get them above everyone else.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I haven't looked at Tennis Abstract's methodology but definitely this. If the stats people are looking at aren't reflecting that Sinneraz are the best then the stats are wrong / incomplete / irrelevant etc. It's obvious watching them that they're the best from the baseline (where most modern tennis is played) and they dominate the big events. If stats don't reflect that domination then it's a problem with the stats.

It's like golf. There used to be a very weak to no correlation between the old school golf stats (like fairway %, GIR % etc) and the best players who won the most money, tournaments and had the highest world rankings.

Always nice - and helpful - to see input from another field. Tennis Abstract's baseline potency isn't definitive but gives us another angle. I love to start holistically and then to narrow it down. Tennis Abstract's baseline potency isn't definitive, but gives us another helpful angle and is thus useful...

 

[abmk]

I am not sure where the disconnect in interpreting my OP is happening for you guys.

I am not denying Sinner and Alcaraz are the best baseliners today and probably going to become top 5 ever eventually.

I am just proposing that their stroke speed and rpms are not the outliers that they been claimed to be. It's other factors, including athleticism and shot tolerance that get them above everyone else.

good thread, but no at the under-lined part
borg, connors, lendl, agassi, federer, nadal, djokovic.

 

[TennisTurkey]

I am not sure where the disconnect in interpreting my OP is happening for you guys.

I am not denying Sinner and Alcaraz are the best baseliners today and probably going to become top 5 ever eventually.

I am just proposing that their stroke speed and rpms are not the outliers that they been claimed to be. It's other factors, including athleticism and shot tolerance that get them above everyone else.

A huge thing missing from merely looking at stroke speeds and rpms (and assuming they are measured accurately) is court position.

We see Sinner being on attack the majority of the time against basically everyone, so it's not just his movement and shot tolerance. We see him perched on top of the baseline just drilling it, kind of like Agassi.

E.g. an 80 mph forehand with 3000 RPM spin contacted on top of the baseline is a completely different animal to one contacted say 4 feet behind the baseline.

--It robs the opponent of double the distance worth of time (8 feet in this example) i.e. the time it takes to travel the extra distance to the striker plus return.
--It arrives with more spin and speed at the opponent because air resistance has less time to take effect on the ball.
--Simple geometry means that sharper angles can be created the closer to the net you are (think of Agassi on the baseline moving the opponent from side to side).

It takes great coordination and technique to rip it while taking it early, and those guys who are outliers in that skill are extremely successful e.g. Djokovic, Fed, Sinner, Agassi etc.

This is what Shelton said about Sinner after their match at Wimbledon:

“It’s frustrating. There are a lot of things. It’s two very different players (Sinner and Alcara) and challenges. With Sinner, whom I’ve played the most, his ball speed is really high. I’ve never seen anything like it. You don’t see anything like it when you’re going through the draw. When you play him it’s almost like things are in 2x speed. I’m usually pretty good at adjusting to that speed. It’s difficult when a guy is hitting the ball that big that consistently off both wings and serving the way he is,” Shelton said.

 

[TennisTurkey]

A lot shorter way of putting all that:

I would love to see a stat of how long the ball spends on each side of the net.

I bet the ball spends more time on Sinner's opponent's side, Sinner takes it early and whacks it back and sends it to the other side quickly.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

A lot shorter way of putting all that:

I would love to see a stat of how long the ball spends on each side of the net.

I bet the ball spends more time on Sinner's opponent's side, Sinner takes it early and whacks it back and sends it to the other side quickly.

Indeed - would be fun to see this for the likes of Agassi or Fed. The length of time should be as a percentage of time between strikes, too, to control for pace.

 

[ForehandCross]

A huge thing missing from merely looking at stroke speeds and rpms (and assuming they are measured accurately) is court position.

We see Sinner being on attack the majority of the time against basically everyone, so it's not just his movement and shot tolerance. We see him perched on top of the baseline just drilling it, kind of like Agassi.

E.g. an 80 mph forehand with 3000 RPM spin contacted on top of the baseline is a completely different animal to one contacted say 4 feet behind the baseline.

--It robs the opponent of double the distance worth of time (8 feet in this example) i.e. the time it takes to travel the extra distance to the striker plus return.
--It arrives with more spin and speed at the opponent because air resistance has less time to take effect on the ball.
--Simple geometry means that sharper angles can be created the closer to the net you are (think of Agassi on the baseline moving the opponent from side to side).

It takes great coordination and technique to rip it while taking it early, and those guys who are outliers in that skill are extremely successful e.g. Djokovic, Fed, Sinner, Agassi etc.

This is what Shelton said about Sinner after their match at Wimbledon:

“It’s frustrating. There are a lot of things. It’s two very different players (Sinner and Alcara) and challenges. With Sinner, whom I’ve played the most, his ball speed is really high. I’ve never seen anything like it. You don’t see anything like it when you’re going through the draw. When you play him it’s almost like things are in 2x speed. I’m usually pretty good at adjusting to that speed. It’s difficult when a guy is hitting the ball that big that consistently off both wings and serving the way he is,” Shelton said.

I kind of agree with what you are saying in spirit, but again the data to make that assertion does not exist as much as anyone would have wanted to see it broken down by say distance from baseline.

And then again , you even can look at Dimitrov kind of doing the same, he too steps in. Routing back to the point that while it's amazing feature, it's not an entirely new one.

I have not exactly watched a lot of Sinner matches, tennis has been a bit lower on the priority list for some time. From what I have watched I would actually propose a different explanation :

Lesser than having the ability to crank it while toeing the baseline/being inside the baseline, I feel what distinguishes Sinner is his ability to maintain pace even on balls that are supposed to be at least a neutral return, his short take back and slappish FH makes it possible for him to keep the pace up for every stroke. His intent on even the on the run balls is outstanding.

What Shelton and co might be referring to can be the fact that he doesn't exactly give any balls that fall below a certain speed threshold even on shots that are supposed to yield that .

 

[Spin Diesel]

A huge thing missing from merely looking at stroke speeds and rpms (and assuming they are measured accurately) is court position.

We see Sinner being on attack the majority of the time against basically everyone, so it's not just his movement and shot tolerance. We see him perched on top of the baseline just drilling it, kind of like Agassi.

E.g. an 80 mph forehand with 3000 RPM spin contacted on top of the baseline is a completely different animal to one contacted say 4 feet behind the baseline.

--It robs the opponent of double the distance worth of time (8 feet in this example) i.e. the time it takes to travel the extra distance to the striker plus return.
--It arrives with more spin and speed at the opponent because air resistance has less time to take effect on the ball.
--Simple geometry means that sharper angles can be created the closer to the net you are (think of Agassi on the baseline moving the opponent from side to side).

It takes great coordination and technique to rip it while taking it early, and those guys who are outliers in that skill are extremely successful e.g. Djokovic, Fed, Sinner, Agassi etc.

This is what Shelton said about Sinner after their match at Wimbledon:

“It’s frustrating. There are a lot of things. It’s two very different players (Sinner and Alcara) and challenges. With Sinner, whom I’ve played the most, his ball speed is really high. I’ve never seen anything like it. You don’t see anything like it when you’re going through the draw. When you play him it’s almost like things are in 2x speed. I’m usually pretty good at adjusting to that speed. It’s difficult when a guy is hitting the ball that big that consistently off both wings and serving the way he is,” Shelton said.

I was about to write exactly that .. well, a lot less elaborate but still.

And then add to Sinner‘s aggressive court positioning the strategic placement of his shots, depth and width and you can see, why it is overwhelming his opponents more than players who may have higher numbers but missing the rest of these important factors.

 

[ForehandCross]

Okay TTW servers just died for me. After 10 tries or so I got in.

Anyone else having this issue?

 

[mtommer]

Umm I did not do it out of "worry" I did it out of curiosity and since it was a lazy weekend a week ago.

After all this forum is for discussing Tennis correct?

Sure but you're leaving out too much to warrant your conclusion about the game on a grand scale. Avg. mph and rpm is one small statistic and too ambiguous to reach your conclusion. To be fair, those who make the claim about today's game being so much faster etc. are just as lacking. Hence my comment, just watch and appreciate matches for what they are.

 

[Grafil Injection]

I strongly suspect they measure speed as distance travelled in the horizontal direction / time, rather than distance travelled in the angle of launch / time. The radars are probably at the same height around the court, whereas, they would need to be at different heights to calculate angular speed accurately.

Hence, someone who hits a high loopy ball will be measured as hitting slower shots, even if the ball actually leaves the racket faster.

This is probably why, at the time of reaching the finals, Sinner was tied with Anisimova as having the highest average BH speed of 81mph. Sinner hits relatively flat for men; and Anisimova hits even flatter than that, and also relatively flat for women.

This is also why when you look at maximum speed for groundstrokes, the men are higher, often around 110mph, because it is only on those strokes that men typically hit flat. Whereas, Women's average and max speeds are closer together since they hit flatter all the time.

 

[Racquet_smash]

I am extremely surprised when people talk about hitting harder as if it wasn't something we never saw before. Either way even young kids know the better player isn't necessarily the one that hits the harder

 

[Rovesciarete]

I strongly suspect they measure speed as distance travelled in the horizontal direction / time, rather than distance travelled in the angle of launch / time. The radars are probably at the same height around the court, whereas, they would need to be at different heights to calculate angular speed accurately.

Hence, someone who hits a high loopy ball will be measured as hitting slower shots, even if the ball actually leaves the racket faster.

This is probably why, at the time of reaching the finals, Sinner was tied with Anisimova as having the highest average BH speed of 81mph. Sinner hits relatively flat for men; and Anisimova hits even flatter than that, and also relatively flat for women.

This is also why when you look at maximum speed for groundstrokes, the men are higher, often around 110mph, because it is only on those strokes that men typically hit flat. Whereas, Women's average and max speeds are closer together since they hit flatter all the time.

This is a good post, still Sinner's incoming balls have been described to be flat&fast with a fairly high spin. As he takes them also early and hits them deep the algorithm attributed him 2024, pre-Turin, with the highest shot quality:

Now I think it is harder to compute the quality of some of Charlie's crazier shots - among others - so I see such graphs more as good orientation instead of gospel.

 

[ppma]

I am not surprised on these data tbh. Sad that Dimitrov does not capitalize on his shots quality.

 

[jackson vile]

It was very interesting to see how Novak varies his strokes in speed and RPM so much, this would be very difficult to play against as the rhythm is non-existent making predictability low.

This really demonstrates just how sophisticated each one of his strokes really are.

 

[NedStark]

I am not surprised on these data tbh. Sad that Dimitrov does not capitalize on his shots quality.

Yeah, he played too passively. His latest Wimbledon run was the exception, unfortunately injury happened again.

 

[ForehandCross]

Yeah, he played too passively. His latest Wimbledon run was the exception, unfortunately injury happened again.

Dimitrov needs to switch to first strike tennis and use his variety

Don't abandon pushing because that's the core of modern game but find out ways to unsettle his opponents cause no one plays that game anymore.

He himself doesn't play that style perfectly, but given the current era and how most don't know how to counter that style it's something he can try.

 

[NedStark]

Dimitrov needs to switch to first strike tennis and use his variety

Don't abandon pushing because that's the core of modern game but find out ways to unsettle his opponents cause no one plays that game anymore.

He himself doesn't play that style perfectly, but given the current era and how most don't know how to counter that style it's something he can try.

Too late unfortunately. Should have done that years ago.

 

[FiReFTW]

Stats don't matter, its the NEW ERA with Sinner and Alcaraz, new generation and new era and it needs to be hyped up (just like mcenroe and everyone is doing), so stats don't matter at all, Sinner and Alcaraz hit the ball MUCH HARDER than ANYONE EVER before and its SOMETHING NEVER SEEN BEFORE.

HYPE HYPE

 

[Hansen]

so I see such graphs more as good orientation instead of gospel

but if a graph shows that zverev has a better forehand than fritz or rublev, the „objective“ shot quality is worthless.
in one shot quality graph, they also had zverevs forehand way above tsitsipas‘. but give tsitsipas zverevs forehand and he wouldn‘t be a top 50 player, maybe not even top 200 player.

 

[Rovesciarete]

but if a graph shows that zverev has a better forehand than fritz or rublev, the „objective“ shot quality is worthless.
in one shot quality graph, they also had zverevs forehand way above tsitsipas‘. but give tsitsipas zverevs forehand and he wouldn‘t be a top 50 player, maybe not even top 200 player.

This is a good point. Sasha has a good forehand which has often become terrible when he is tight in the biggest matches. Imho he can also be rushed when he tries to be aggressive himself. So to me it seems good-great on average, shocking in key points.

However if you look at his forehand potency/match and fhp/100 it is only average 5.2 and 4.0, Firtz stands at 9.6 and 7.5 according to Tennisabstract. So this is an interesting case of divergence between two data sets. My eye test fits this better.

I agree fully that Stefanos would not be a top50 player with Sasha's forehand.

 

[droliver]

Dunno, when ATP players describe the shock and awe of Sinner’s shot quality off both wings I’d believe them.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Dunno, when ATP players describe the shock and awe of Sinner’s shot quality off both wings I’d believe them.

That would be the professional feel test, which is also very telling.

 

[Hansen]

I agree fully that Stefanos would not be a top50 player with Sasha's forehand.

also sasha has the luxury of being in a good position a lot of the time thanks to his forehand, and he doesn‘t have to take unnecessary risks because his backhand is very solid.
tsitsipas on the other hand, always has to try to get control of the rally if he gets a forehand, because if he plays too patient his backhand gets exposed.
so it is really hard to rate the shot quality of one wing independent of the other.
for me, the eye test is way more relevant than the „shot quality“ chart, which is also only a rating from a rater, with probably less „good eyes“ than a lot of tennis enthusiasts.

 

[ForehandCross]

also sasha has the luxury of being in a good position a lot of the time thanks to his forehand, and he doesn‘t have to take unnecessary risks because his backhand is very solid.
tsitsipas on the other hand, always has to try to get control of the rally if he gets a forehand, because if he plays too patient his backhand gets exposed.
so it is really hard to rate the shot quality of one wing independent of the other.
for me, the eye test is way more relevant than the „shot quality“ chart, which is also only a rating from a rater, with probably less „good eyes“ than a lot of tennis enthusiasts.

Interesting observation.

 

[Rovesciarete]

also sasha has the luxury of being in a good position a lot of the time thanks to his forehand, and he doesn‘t have to take unnecessary risks because his backhand is very solid.
tsitsipas on the other hand, always has to try to get control of the rally if he gets a forehand, because if he plays too patient his backhand gets exposed.

At his peak Stef's inside-out forehand was one of the most dominant shots in the sport on higher-bouncing surfaces. It protected his backhand very well in combination with a better movement by being indeed the aggressor.

so it is really hard to rate the shot quality of one wing independent of the other.
for me, the eye test is way more relevant than the „shot quality“ chart, which is also only a rating from a rater, with probably less „good eyes“ than a lot of tennis enthusiasts.

Most things in tennis are linked. Today I watched Struff on court against local hero Rodionov. The weight of his serve and forehand was something to behold on a hot day 750m above sea level. His flat serve read 224-227 km/h and his kick went up really high. Lots of big serving and forehands when facing breakpoints against Rodi, went big with his second serve too.

However he moved not too well, was late and framed some. So the black box 'shot quality' won't be too high for his forehand even if he crushed some. In short all those data gives us important reference points but it has to combined with the eye test and ideally the feel of the opponent.

 

[Federev]

Note : Speed and RPMs are not everything in tennis. There have been always less successful players who hit with higher speed and rpms than the greatest players of the game. This thread is not about judging superiority or inferiority, its just about seeing if the claims of Sinner and Alcaraz taking the sport to new heights in that domain is true or not.

Its often said that Alcaraz and Sinner has brought the speed of play to another level entirely and its a never seen before level. I was curious so I went down the rabbit hole of finding how they actually compare to previous players. The truth is, as always, not extreme in any shape or form.

Data is scarce and often times conflicting. I am trying to make most of what we have.

Alcaraz and Sinner's Groundstroke speed and RPMs

First before comparisons , lets look at the speed and rpms of Alcaraz and Sinner.
Official ATP website released this article in October 2024, curiously neither Alcaraz nor Sinner figure in top 5 FH speeds by surfaces. All 5 spots belong to players who have been around for a long time, Dimitrov who has been on tour for more than a decade and Rublev who too came to the tour in 2015. And no, this is not sudden new found stroke speeds for either player either.
1. 80 mph = Dimitrov (outdoor hard)
2. 80 mph = Dimitrov (clay)
3. 79 mph = Dimitrov (indoor hard)
4. 79 mph = Fritz (indoor hard)
5. 79 mph = Rublev (indoor hard)


Sinner does figure in the top 5 for BH speeds. Along with Zverev. His speed is indeed impressive. However again it is not like he way way ahead of Zverev outside of clay.
1. 75 mph = Sinner (clay)
2. 73 mph = Sinner (outdoor hard)
3. 73 mph = Sinner (indoor hard)
4. 73 mph = Zverev (clay)
5. 72 mph = Zverev (indoor hard)

Now onto RPMs

Forehand RPMs are dominated by Ruud first, Alcaraz next .

Average Forehand Spin
1. 3291 rpm = Ruud (clay)
2. 3207 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard)
3. 3177 rpm = Alcaraz (outdoor hard)
4. 3141 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard)
5. 3056 rpm = Alcaraz (clay)
6. 3055 rpm = Alcaraz (indoor hard)

However, as we will see later, Alcaraz's FH RPMs are not exactly something that the tour had not seen before.

Interestingly both Sinner and Alcaraz do not even figure in top 5 rpms on BHs
1. 2681 rpm = Dimitrov (clay)
2. 2651 rpm = Ruud (clay)
3. 2606 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard
4. 2580 rpm = Dimitrov (indoor hard)
5. 2576 rpm = Dimitrov (outdoor hard)
6. 2572 rpm = Ruud (indoor hard)
7. 2399 rpm = Dimitrov (grass)

Its Dimitrov dominating the whole thing.


This article does not really give the whole picture for Sinner and Alcaraz stroke speed and RPMs. So we need to mix it with this multiple sources to arrive at our reference values. This article puts Alcaraz FH at 78 MPH and unlike other sources and another article published on the official article on the ATP Site, puts his BH at 73 mph. But lets take the

1. Alcaraz FH - 78 MPH ~3000-3100 RPMs
2. Alcaraz BH - 73 MPH [Doubtful], approx 2000 RPMs as per this paid article
3. Sinner FH - 78 MPH with ~3000 RPMs
4. Sinner BH - 73 MPH with ~2200 RPMs.


Comparisons

First thing first. Dimitrov actually outclasses Sinner and Alcaraz on the whole , he has higher speed on FH, much higher Speed and RPM on the BH. So do guys like Nicholas Jarry. Thiem while a tad bit behind in RPMs(2900-3000 on FH, 2000s on BH) puts both Sinner and Alcaraz to shame with speed

Now lets look at Big 3.

Nadal's FH RPMs have always been noted to be around 3200-3400 RPMS.

One of last injury free years for Nadal was 2021. 2021 Nadal had higher FH and BH RPMs than both 2024 Sinner and Alcaraz. A broken down Nadal of 2023 had 75-76 mph FH. Slower true but not significantly.

Not only that it was not just Nadal, here's an article with screen shots from official ATP stats in Brisbane from 2016 AO season that puts 2016 Federer HC Forehand RPMs(3056) at approximately same of Alcaraz on outdoor HC and his BH RPMs(2565) almost as high as tour highest in 2024. Federer's FH too, has been noted to have speeds around 76-77 MPH on average. Just around 1 Mph Slower than Alcaraz and Sinner. While many sources put Federer FH at 2700-2800 RPMs, that is the result of a singular Analysis that got popularized by NYT's report in 2012 whose number has been quoted for RPM figures for subsequent reports everywhere, the above screen shot is one of the only case of official ATP Stat that I could find.

Djokovic lacks a bit on RPMs(2800 on FH, 1900 on BH) but he is a chameleon. He varies his speed, he changes it as per opponent and goes as high as 81 Mph. Exibhit A , Exhibit B , Exhibit C (Note he went higher than Carlos off of both wings but much lower than his average of 78 MPH on a fast Cincy Court)



Conclusion

Even on tour today and before there have always been guys who hit harder and heavier. For Big 3, the speeds and rpms of both are not exactly out of reach. Its not their stroke play that is something the tour has never seen, its not at all an extreme outlier in all honesty. The Outlier is what their athleticism allows them to do with those strokes in terms of point construction that makes them All time Greats.

And more importantly, RPMs and Stroke speed really doesn't matter much at the highest levels. Medvedev of all people whose RPMs and speed is as low as any on tour, up until the first two sets of 2024 AO final used to beat Sinner comfortably despite Sinner showing similar stroke speed and RPMs as today. Medvedev even handled Alcaraz in USO SF and at Wimbledon.

Djokovic still handles Alcaraz outside grass despite lower RPMs

This is excellent!

Boss post.

Thank you!