A dirty Sinner or a Jannik high on clay? How many clay titles will Jannik Sinner win in his career?

[dking68]

Possibly, but I think Alcaraz and Rune have shown more on the surface so far. And obviously Djokovic and Nadal are going to be factors.

I don’t really see this guy having a big career but to each his own. I just think his forehand isn’t good enough to be a serious contender for majors. He’s like the Murray in relation to Alcaraz and Sinner

 

[dking68]

@Kralingen hope he proves me wrong but I’m not getting an ATG vybes from Rune. I see more talent in Sinner, yes even on clay. What I saw in Roland Garros 2022 was shocking and to this very day it’s the best I’ve ever seen Jannik play. Rublev was hopeless

 

[tudwell]

It's hard to put much stock in his 2023 stats. He barely did anything at Barcelona, Rome, or especially Roland Garros. On the other hand, he's a young, improving player so I wouldn't expect his stats to regress back to his career average, either, and we've seen those improved stats pay off indoors, so it's possible the same happens on clay.

But I also think it'll be his weakest surface. He's just not as good a mover as Nadal, Djokovic, or Alcaraz. He's so strong in the fundamentals of the game that I think he can translate his play, Agassi-style, to any surface or condition, but I don't think he'll ever be a dominant clay courter. Just one among the top pack – which is still a great place to be. Plus he doesn't seem interested in playing lots of small clay court tournaments, especially outside the primary European clay swing, so that'll limit how many titles he can rack up.

For perspective, Djokovic is sitting on 19 titles after almost 20 years of playing on the tour. He had Nadal standing in his way for basically that entire time, which Sinner won't, but for Sinner to better Novak's numbers and go 20+ he'd still have to be close to Novak-caliber on the surface, and with his less-than-all-time-great speed and generally higher-risk play style, I don't know if I see that happening.

 

[dking68]

It's hard to put much stock in his 2023 stats. He barely did anything at Barcelona, Rome, or especially Roland Garros. On the other hand, he's a young, improving player so I wouldn't expect his stats to regress back to his career average, either, and we've seen those improved stats pay off indoors, so it's possible the same happens on clay.

But I also think it'll be his weakest surface. He's just not as good a mover as Nadal, Djokovic, or Alcaraz. He's so strong in the fundamentals of the game that I think he can translate his play, Agassi-style, to any surface or condition, but I don't think he'll ever be a dominant clay courter. Just one among the top pack – which is still a great place to be. Plus he doesn't seem interested in playing lots of small clay court tournaments, especially outside the primary European clay swing, so that'll limit how many titles he can rack up.

For perspective, Djokovic is sitting on 19 titles after almost 20 years of playing on the tour. He had Nadal standing in his way for basically that entire time, which Sinner won't, but for Sinner to better Novak's numbers and go 20+ he'd still have to be close to Novak-caliber on the surface, and with his less-than-all-time-great speed and generally higher-risk play style, I don't know if I see that happening.

I went with 13-16. I don’t see him achieving Novak’s results on clay either. But he will win a few Rome titles for sure. But he’s massively underrated on clay. He demolished Alcaraz in that Umag final, 1 and 1 in the second and third

 

[Dwell]

I went with 13-16. I don’t see him achieving Novak’s results on clay either. But he will win a few Rome titles for sure. But he’s massively underrated on clay. He demolished Alcaraz in that Umag final, 1 and 1 in the second and third

How Rune retools his forehand in the next few years will pretty much determine the rest of his career. Boris might go down as the GOAT coach if he pulls this off.

 

[Rovesciarete]

It's hard to put much stock in his 2023 stats. He barely did anything at Barcelona, Rome, or especially Roland Garros. On the other hand, he's a young, improving player so I wouldn't expect his stats to regress back to his career average, either, and we've seen those improved stats pay off indoors, so it's possible the same happens on clay.

Agreed, small sample size against not exactly the cream of the crop. Makes it difficult even if the stats improved across the board.

But I also think it'll be his weakest surface. He's just not as good a mover as Nadal, Djokovic, or Alcaraz. He's so strong in the fundamentals of the game that I think he can translate his play, Agassi-style, to any surface or condition, but I don't think he'll ever be a dominant clay courter. Just one among the top pack – which is still a great place to be. Plus he doesn't seem interested in playing lots of small clay court tournaments, especially outside the primary European clay swing, so that'll limit how many titles he can rack up.

He is a lesser mover on clay than those three but he is also at least 5cm taller which always looks slower. I think he has better clay fundamentals than the great Agassi which says a lot. This surface favours heavy weight of shot and who can deliver more from both wings?

For perspective, Djokovic is sitting on 19 titles after almost 20 years of playing on the tour. He had Nadal standing in his way for basically that entire time, which Sinner won't, but for Sinner to better Novak's numbers and go 20+ he'd still have to be close to Novak-caliber on the surface, and with his less-than-all-time-great speed and generally higher-risk play style, I don't know if I see that happening.

In my humble opinion Rafa was just a mountain for anybody on clay. I mean 62 titles are just so incredible. Alcaraz can play amazingly well so he should make life very difficult for twelve years or more. I have huge respect for Claykovic, which is an all-time great there but I would argue that it was his least natural surface. Stroke-wise Jannik seems more at home there even if his movement is not.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Carlitos drop a little but it is good to see the highlights of Umag again. Janni with so much natural weight of shot, causing big problems to the greatest clay talent of the last fifteen+ years. His serve was clearly less effective just like his movement was a bit clunkier. Still some nice gets, droppers and volleys. The smash is statistically in the Nole department.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Maybe even more instructive are the highlights of the loss against Rune after the rain pause. Jannik dominated the first set with some beautiful striking but could no longer do so once rain and dusk made the slowest conditions even more so.

Rune dropped back more, varied smartly, mixed in a lot of spin with some great returns and won narrowly. Interestingly this loss produced some of the greatest point highlights for Sinner, with some amazing reflexes and net play. There was some lack of adjustment by Jannik despite the rain pause, which causes reflection.

Overall the conditions were basically the extreme opposite of the Turin match which shows that both will do well over their career.

P.S: The backhand was great back then but nowadays Jannik has a bigger hitbox to deal with the incoming low balls. This allows him to deliver down the line and at an angle with more margin.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Just wanted to allow other posters to get their votes in. So far I have seen no reason why he shouldn't win plenty on clay, but we will see.

The olympic games will now a bigger target considering he got now the happy slam.

 

[FeroBango]

All I know is that Sinner is being overlooked as a force on clay. He's too good for his heavy shots to not be a factor moving forward.

 

[ppma]

Since Medvedev won Rome anything can happen. Plus, I think Sinner's ball striking is good for clay, even though he isn't made for the clay kind of game.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Let us look at the clay raw and combined Elo after the Happy Slam. The latter has the greater predictive power so I will sort the top 10 that way:

Rank​	Player​	Age​	Elo​	​	HardRaw​	ClayRaw​	GrassRaw​	​	hElo​	cElo​	gElo​	​	Peak Age​	Peak Elo​
3​	Carlos Alcaraz​	20.6​	2139.0​	​	1976.8​	2039.0​	1909.3​	​	2057.9​	2089.0​	2024.2​	​	20.2​	2239.7​
2​	Novak Djokovic​	36.6​	2216.1​	​	2119.2​	1960.1​	1898.1​	​	2167.6​	2088.1​	2057.1​	​	28.8​	2470.3​
1​	Jannik Sinner​	22.4​	2234.6​	​	2164.3​	1913.5​	1733.0​	​	2199.4​	2074.1​	1983.8​	​	22.4​	2234.6​
10​	Stefanos Tsitsipas​	25.4​	1968.0​	​	1872.0​	2005.1​	1650.8​	​	1920.0​	1986.6​	1809.4​	​	22.8​	2133.4​
4​	Daniil Medvedev​	27.9​	2122.6​	​	2045.7​	1850.0​	1751.2​	​	2084.1​	1986.3​	1936.9​	​	25.9​	2191.9​
5​	Alexander Zverev​	26.7​	2054.8​	​	1939.8​	1917.9​	1619.4​	​	1997.3​	1986.3​	1837.1​	​	24.7​	2161.7​
6​	Andrey Rublev​	26.2​	2048.1​	​	1945.0​	1918.9​	1757.6​	​	1996.5​	1983.5​	1902.9​	​	23.4​	2106.2​
14​	Casper Ruud​	25.0​	1917.2​	​	1769.7​	1940.5​	1412.8​	​	1843.4​	1928.9​	1665.0​	​	23.4​	2064.0​
12​	Holger Rune​	20.7​	1940.3​	​	1804.2​	1897.3​	1631.9​	​	1872.3​	1918.8​	1786.1​	​	20.0​	2070.1​
7​	Grigor Dimitrov​	32.6​	2023.8​	​	1903.5​	1802.7​	1611.6​	​	1963.6​	1913.2​	1817.7​	​	23.2​	2090.6​

Apart from the King of Clay in exile it fairly reflects who has the biggest chances on the dirt. I would rank Sascha and Casper ahead of Daniil. Rune is another tough case, deep lows and high peaks. Carlos, Novak and Jannik are all very close, only fifteen points apart while there is a big gap of almost a hundred* between them and the quartet.

*Means that the leader is twice as likely to win

 

[Rovesciarete]

Rune vs Medvedev was an interesting re-read:

But as we know Rune is often content—especially in big moments—to counterpunch. Again from the Paris Masters piece:

“It was interesting to watch Djokovic face a guy who was willing to blend aggression with a stubborn refusal to miss in big moments. Most players sort of entrench themselves in one style more (Medvedev counterpunches very well, but lacks the slice/drop shots/and aggressive ability to expose a deep position, Kyrgios serves and comes forward well, but lacks the defense to hang on in big points, etc.) and this makes it very hard to beat Djokovic, because his corner defense is so good. You have to be able to push him back, but also threaten the forecourt. Djokovic makes you have to find a lot of real estate (i.e., angles, drop shots) to win points. And that real estate is harder to find when the pressure is on. Trying to hang with him in big points usually just favours him even more.”

Rune has some lovely strokes, I give him that and his long term coach Lars Christensen. Those are excellent foundations to build upon, and he does try out a lot of things. Quite interesting to look back at it when Sinner came out calmly dispatching almost all top5 opposition with a mix of aggression and patience.

Rune sits in contrast to Sinner and Alcaraz, the other two young guns set on taking over from the Big-3, but those two are so clearly offensive and seem entrenched in that style. Their matches are like the Federer/Agassi clip from above: blazing pace from close quarters. I haven’t seen them sample the patient counterpuncher too much (although at times Alcaraz looked patient on the backhand against Medvedev in Indian Wells, you can see that he’s constantly looking for that ball he can crunch). Now does Rune look a little manufactured off the ground compared to those two? I think he does. But the product is simple and I think for that reason alone any obstacles can be navigated.

So Rune has likely more stable strokes while Sinner has thanks to more spin more margins on the trajectory and a steadier head to pull it off. It will be very interesting to see how the clay season will work out.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Clay season is ahead and tennis paradise has the dirtiest hardcourt a Sinner can play on. It increases the importance of the forehand and the value of topspin. However what about the backhand?

Miami

And here the 52 week averages, 03/08/2024.

 

[dking68]

@Rovesciarete clay masters for Sinner?

 

[Rovesciarete]

@Rovesciarete clay masters for Sinner?

Monte Carlo is usually very slow and Sinner will have the least time to acclimatise. However it is should be rather warm with little rain expected for the first week so condition should suit him a bit more. Very likely that he will also be scheduled for evening prime time, so a warm dry day is helpful too. No clay specialists for the first two rounds would be nice, as well as having Alcaraz on the other side of the draw.

Pollen might be the big unknown.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Rome final on comeback is pretty good for sinner results wise.

 

[nolefam_2024]

If sinner fails to reach rg finals this year , he would be 24 before next rg. Federer and Djokovic both didn't reach rg finals until they were 25 in 2006 and 2012 respectively. But both had more clay titles yes.

 

[Rovesciarete]

If sinner fails to reach rg finals this year , he would be 24 before next rg. Federer and Djokovic both didn't reach rg finals until they were 25 in 2006 and 2012 respectively. But both had more clay titles yes.

Not the latest bloomers but they reach peak athleticism considerably later than Nadal. Can't remember who watched this athletic man for the first time at Wimbledon from a distance and was surprised to see a boy's face when coming closer.

 

[Rovesciarete]

So for now he has two, nice work. Interesting to see that Sinner seems to have increased the topspin of his forehand to prepare for clay...

Clay season is ahead and tennis paradise has the dirtiest hardcourt a Sinner can play on. It increases the importance of the forehand and the value of topspin. However what about the backhand


And here the 52 week averages, 03/08/2024.

No surprise that the guy among the elite with the best forehand and backhand of 2025 according to Tennis Insight and Tennisabstract is good on clay...

 

[DSH]

Agreed, small sample size against not exactly the cream of the crop. Makes it difficult even if the stats improved across the board.



He is a lesser mover on clay than those three but he is also at least 5cm taller which always looks slower. I think he has better clay fundamentals than the great Agassi which says a lot. This surface favours heavy weight of shot and who can deliver more from both wings?



In my humble opinion Rafa was just a mountain for anybody on clay. I mean 62 titles are just so incredible. Alcaraz can play amazingly well so he should make life very difficult for twelve years or more. I have huge respect for Claykovic, which is an all-time great there but I would argue that it was his least natural surface. Stroke-wise Jannik seems more at home there even if his movement is not.

63 titles for Nadal on clay, a record in the open era and number 5 on this surface of all time.

 

[tudwell]

Two things I wouldn't have guessed back in 2023 when this thread was made: That Sinner would improve his serve by the margin he has (obviously he's a tall guy, but that alone doesn't guarantee an elite serve) and that this improved serve would translate so well to slow clay conditions. But he's almost as difficult to break on clay as he is on hard or grass, which is just crazy. I said above that I didn't think he'd be a dominant clay courter – well, I still don't expect him to be the top dog for any significant length of time, if only because he has Alcaraz at his back (and whoever shows up in the coming years), but it's also clear there's no one at his level besides Alcaraz at the moment. The two stand tall over everyone else on every surface. Crazy.

Still and all, he has two clay titles and he's already 24 years old. I still think it'll be his least successful surface and Roland Garros his least successful slam, but on the other hand, until he's unable to play anywhere close to his current level, he'll be a top contender at every single big clay tournament he contests. I could see him averaging 1-2 titles for the next few years (losing the balance to Alcaraz but always right there to swoop in the moment Carlos even slightly falters). What that ends up adding up to depends on just how long he can carry his current level and whether anyone else rises to join their duopoly in the near future.

 

[JMR]

Still and all, he has two clay titles and he's already 24 years old. I still think it'll be his least successful surface and Roland Garros his least successful slam, but on the other hand, until he's unable to play anywhere close to his current level, he'll be a top contender at every single big clay tournament he contests. I could see him averaging 1-2 titles for the next few years (losing the balance to Alcaraz but always right there to swoop in the moment Carlos even slightly falters). What that ends up adding up to depends on just how long he can carry his current level and whether anyone else rises to join their duopoly in the near future.

Another factor is that Sinner just won't play much on clay. He will not go out of his way to play in clay court events. He'll never play a tournament between Miami and Monte Carlo, such as the U.S. Clay Court Championships. He'll probably play Barcelona or Munich rarely, if at all. I don't know what his plans are for Madrid this year, but that's a tournament he may skip occasionally, or frequently. And Sinner will never play the weird clay mini-swings that occur after the AO and after Wimbledon. So it'll be just a handful of clay events, 3-4, each year for him.

 

[tudwell]

Another factor is that Sinner just won't play much on clay. He will not go out of his way to play in clay court events. He'll never play a tournament between Miami and Monte Carlo, such as the U.S. Clay Court Championships. He'll probably play Barcelona or Munich rarely, if at all. I don't know what his plans are for Madrid this year, but that's a tournament he may skip occasionally, or frequently. And Sinner will never play the weird clay mini-swings that occur after the AO and after Wimbledon. So it'll be just a handful of clay events, 3-4, each year for him.

For sure. I'm pretty much assuming he'll only play the four big ones - maybe a smaller tourney here and there, depending (like if he has to miss a couple of the Masters due to injury and wants more prep for Roland Garros). That'll definitely limit his opportunities to rack up the titles.

 

[Rovesciarete]

He has the potential to be great on all surfaces. But he is still injury prone with so many tournaments on his schedule, cut the small ones and clay wise focus only on the 4 that matter.

I think he has good chances in all the big 5 ones, maybe Monte Carlo less so as he should do well in the Sunshine Double. Madrid might also turn out well if he keeps improving his serve or at least steadies it. Arguably the biggest question mark is his allergy...

For him the Olympic Games on clay might be the most important followed by RG and Rome. Madrid the least well below Monte Carlo. It is actually not too unlikely that he will win one of them.

He’s very underrated on clay. Remember he demolished Alcaraz in 3 sets in Umag in 2022, 1 and 1 in the second and third sets. Also he was ahead in the first 2 sets when he played Rafa on Chatrier in 2020. I think if he hadn’t had pollen allergies he would’ve been a Rome champion and a Roland Garros finalist already (should’ve made the Roland Garros final in 2022)

Some decent older posts from 2023 in this thread.

In 2024 he was of course robbed of that double break against Tsitsipas in Monte Carlos, before getting injured. He withdrew from Madrid and was forced to skip all apart from RG.

 

[beartorun]

Some decent older posts from 2023 in this thread.

In 2024 he was of course robbed of that double break against Tsitsipas in Monte Carlos, before getting injured. He withdrew from Madrid and was forced to skip all apart from RG.

Watching sinner live everysingle match last year in Rome and on tv this clay season I still don’t understand why he can’t be more dominant in clay than hard court. I would need more time to express the concept but tosummarize clay levels down some sinner strength (serve, early ball and ping pong game, power game etc) but this is true for all competitors. Therefore On clay he would be able to absorb serverbot lucky day (ie: mensik loss) and powerFH lucky day (ie: Spizziri first set, nole in AO). On the other hand clay among other things would endorse his consistency, tennis IQ, return effectiveness and the combo a) deep and lethal BH + b) inside out FH (more time to go around on more extreme cases, see last alcaraz matCh).

 

[Rovesciarete]

Watching sinner live everysingle match last year in Rome and on tv this clay season I still don’t understand why he can’t be more dominant in clay than hard court. I would need more time to express the concept but tosummarize clay levels down some sinner strength (serve, early ball and ping pong game, power game etc) but this is true for all competitors. Therefore On clay he would be able to absorb serverbot lucky day (ie: mensik loss) and powerFH lucky day (ie: Spizziri first set, nole in AO). On the other hand clay among other things would endorse his consistency, tennis IQ, return effectiveness and the combo a) deep and lethal BH + b) inside out FH (more time to go around on more extreme cases, see last alcaraz matCh).

Sinner live is something special, this year I can't go to Rome. Considering his first/second serve dynamic and return stats he looked like a clay specialists four-five years ago. His groundstrokes were already great, easy power all the way, but given his late growth spurt his movement wasn't elite yet. Actually he could slide well, but lacked power and endurance. Of course some discounted him, looking not at the quality and the potential.

I suspect that for many career years his dominance ratio on clay will be at worst not far off hardcourt. From 24 onwards he won around 56.4% of all points on this surface, this year he got 57.3%! For a very small (peak) sample those are indeed Nadalesque numbers. For example the straight-set win against Ofner with 0 breakpoints is below his average!