A Duet of Fire and Ice: Alcaraz and Sinner

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Jannik had a great run in the last months and is according to Elo the best player on the tour. Carlos won his first title in many months after looking a bit shaky in some matches. However both are winning points at an extraordinary clip and their stats seem only to go up, up and up.

Struggling Carlos is winning 55.8% of total points, holding 89.1% of serve and breaking it 34.5% in 2024 with a dominance ration of 1.45. Jannik is 55.4%, 93.7% and 29.6% respectively against stronger opponents with a DR of 1.39. This is after a great last 52 weeks for both. However this year so far they are matching the stats of the best seasons of the big 3. Of course this should return to the mean but where will that mean be during their prime?

Frankly no active player bar the Novak of the last years comes close and it looks like these two will win the lion share of big titles for years to come...


CARLOS ALCARAZ
TOTALSMatchAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
60-13 (82%)​
5.6%​
66.1%​
72.7%​
56.9%​
86.2%​
67.4%​
30.2%​
41.9%​
54.0%​
1.28​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
13-3 (81%)​
5.1%​
67.5%​
75.4%​
57.9%​
89.1%​
69.7%​
34.5%​
43.8%​
55.8%​
1.45​
2023
65-12 (84%)​
5.4%​
65.7%​
72.2%​
56.3%​
85.4%​
66.8%​
30.9%​
42.0%​
53.9%​
1.26​
2022
57-13 (81%)​
4.6%​
66.0%​
71.9%​
55.5%​
84.7%​
66.3%​
30.6%​
41.4%​
53.3%​
1.23​
2021
48-19 (72%)​
3.9%​
63.5%​
68.6%​
53.8%​
77.5%​
63.2%​
33.2%​
42.0%​
52.4%​
1.14​
2020
39-7 (85%)​
1.4%​
68.7%​
63.4%​
52.6%​
74.3%​
60.0%​
34.0%​
43.9%​
51.9%​
1.10​
2019
18-10 (64%)​
1.6%​
69.5%​
58.7%​
54.5%​
68.4%​
57.5%​
30.1%​
42.0%​
50.0%​
0.99​
2018
2-1 (67%)​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
Career
242-65 (79%)​
4.1%​
65.9%​
69.6%​
55.0%​
81.4%​
64.6%​
31.9%​
42.2%​
53.1%​
1.19​


JANNIK SINNER

TOTALSMatchAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
60-11 (85%)​
8.2%​
60.4%​
76.5%​
56.9%​
89.3%​
68.7%​
28.2%​
40.3%​
54.1%​
1.29​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
17-1 (94%)​
7.7%​
62.1%​
78.3%​
58.4%​
93.7%​
70.8%​
29.6%​
40.6%​
55.4%​
1.39​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
274-108 (72%)​
6.9%​
59.2%​
73.4%​
53.7%​
82.7%​
65.4%​
28.0%​
40.3%​
52.6%​
1.17​
 
Last edited:

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
Making me miss Dueling Dragons fire and ice at Universal ;)

DSCF0007.jpg

universal22.jpg
 

dking68

Legend
Jannik had a great run in the last months and is according to Elo the best player on the tour. Carlos won his first title in many months after looking a bit shaky in some matches. However both are winning points at an extraordinary clip and their stats seem only to go up, up and up.

Struggling Carlos is winning 55.8% of total points, holding 89.1% of serve and breaking it 34.5% in 2024 with a dominance ration of 1.45. Jannik is 55.4%, 93.7% and 29.6% respectively against stronger opponents with a DR of 1.39. This is after a great last 52 weeks for both. However this year so far they are matching the stats of the best seasons of the big 3. Of course this should return to the mean but where will that mean be during their prime?

Frankly no active player bar the Novak of the last years comes close and it looks like these two will win the lion share of big titles for years to come...


CARLOS ALCARAZ
TOTALSMatchAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
60-13 (82%)​
5.6%​
66.1%​
72.7%​
56.9%​
86.2%​
67.4%​
30.2%​
41.9%​
54.0%​
1.28​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
13-3 (81%)​
5.1%​
67.5%​
75.4%​
57.9%​
89.1%​
69.7%​
34.5%​
43.8%​
55.8%​
1.45​
2023
65-12 (84%)​
5.4%​
65.7%​
72.2%​
56.3%​
85.4%​
66.8%​
30.9%​
42.0%​
53.9%​
1.26​
2022
57-13 (81%)​
4.6%​
66.0%​
71.9%​
55.5%​
84.7%​
66.3%​
30.6%​
41.4%​
53.3%​
1.23​
2021
48-19 (72%)​
3.9%​
63.5%​
68.6%​
53.8%​
77.5%​
63.2%​
33.2%​
42.0%​
52.4%​
1.14​
2020
39-7 (85%)​
1.4%​
68.7%​
63.4%​
52.6%​
74.3%​
60.0%​
34.0%​
43.9%​
51.9%​
1.10​
2019
18-10 (64%)​
1.6%​
69.5%​
58.7%​
54.5%​
68.4%​
57.5%​
30.1%​
42.0%​
50.0%​
0.99​
2018
2-1 (67%)​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
Career
242-65 (79%)​
4.1%​
65.9%​
69.6%​
55.0%​
81.4%​
64.6%​
31.9%​
42.2%​
53.1%​
1.19​


JANNIK SINNER

TOTALSMatchAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
60-11 (85%)​
8.2%​
60.4%​
76.5%​
56.9%​
89.3%​
68.7%​
28.2%​
40.3%​
54.1%​
1.29​
hide yearly totalsshow splits
2024
17-1 (94%)​
7.7%​
62.1%​
78.3%​
58.4%​
93.7%​
70.8%​
29.6%​
40.6%​
55.4%​
1.39​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
274-108 (72%)​
6.9%​
59.2%​
73.4%​
53.7%​
82.7%​
65.4%​
28.0%​
40.3%​
52.6%​
1.17​
Alcaraz’s stats are very misleading. He may have been very dominant against Junchen Shang but he was completely overpowered against A. Zverev in the AO QF. I trust Sinners stats more
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Alcaraz’s stats are very misleading. He may have been very dominant against Junchen Shang but he was completely overpowered against A. Zverev in the AO QF. I trust Sinners stats more.

The quality of his opposition has been somewhat lower and his dominance against and injured Shang was absurd but still it is crazy to have such numbers after a start considered to be difficult…

Overall the long term trends will dominate and it is amazing how both guys have been stepping up for years.
 
Last edited:

Tennisfan339

Professional
Who needs the Big Three?
The Sinner/Alcaraz matches are as exciting as any of the Big Three matches.

That's because he majority of the fans of the Big-Three has left. That represents dozens of millions of people. Do you really think the biggest Nadal and Federer fans are still following this sport with the same passion? Most of them aren't even watching anymore. Djokovic fans will follow very soon. People who find Sinner/Alcaraz exciting are either frustrated Nadal/Djokovic/Federer detractors or brand new viewers who weren't old enough to follow the era of the Big-3. I like Sinner/Alcaraz just fine but I would never compare them to the Big-Three, that's insulting to me.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Sinner himself mentions the interesting contrast of fire & ice when talking about their play styles despite similarities off-court. Unsurprisingly he tries to study Charlie and learn from him. Worked well against Medvedev and Djokovic. Funny that he asked in the official ATP videos Medvedev directly about how he is able to return so well from so deep and Alcaraz how he pulls off his drop shots 'so beautifully'.

 

NaDjoFed

Professional
Sinner himself mentions the interesting contrast of fire & ice when talking about their play styles despite similarities off-court. Unsurprisingly he tries to study Charlie and learn from him. Worked well against Medvedev and Djokovic. Funny that he asked in the official ATP videos Medvedev directly about how he is able to return so well from so deep and Alcaraz how he pulls off his drop shots 'so beautifully'.


well, he is a very smart guy, I am not surprised of his massive improvements. The question is, what's the ceiling? If he keeps improving at this pace...
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
well, he is a very smart guy, I am not surprised of his massive improvements. The question is, what's the ceiling? If he keeps improving at this pace...

For me there was a beautiful symmetry on and off in Shanghai today. Sinner overcame the great master on his favourite hardcourt in his fashion while Alcaraz was seated beside Fed and eagerly noting his observations.

Both are so humble and so eager to learn and improve. Carlos look like in awe of Roger and Jannik talked about three legends off court and one on his side.
 

urban

Legend
Both have at least clearly surpassed and left behind the previous generation of Med, Zed, Tistispas, Ruud and others. Both have a game with different tools, play on a high level, are improving and are not afraid of winning. Zed, Med and the Greek always had problems to close out vital matches and finals, often losing after big leads, Nadal and Djoker took advantage of this missed opportunities and came back, when the younger guns got tight. That doesn't happen with Sinner and Alcaraz. They take their openings and close it out, if they get the chances. I look more to the guys now, who are 22-23. The fire and ice duo has to compete now with a emerging crop of fresh faces: I think, of people like Machac (fine forehand witich neutralized ALcaraz' forehand), Fils, Mensik, Draper or Lehecka, who are making progress. Shelton is a very talented, charismatic guy, who needs some more control and consistency. That young French guy with the monster serve could be a factor at Winbledon..
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Looking back at the year it is clear that both guys are still improving, if at different pace. The ace rate and first serve win percentage of Alcaraz is moving up nicely, just like the second serve percentage. Slight decrease of the RPW% but nothing dramatic.

Best DR and TPW% of his career so far. Age-wise clearly ahead of everybody in the last decades apart from Nadal on clay.


CARLOS ALCARAZ

TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Last 52
54-13 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
6.3%​
65.5%​
73.6%​
57.7%​
86.7%​
68.1%​
30.9%​
41.6%​
54.2%​
1.31​
Hard
29-8 (78%)​
8-7 (53%)​
7.5%​
64.5%​
76.6%​
59.4%​
89.0%​
70.5%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
54.4%​
1.38​
Clay
17-4 (81%)​
6-4 (60%)​
3.5%​
68.3%​
69.1%​
55.7%​
83.7%​
64.9%​
36.3%​
44.2%​
54.3%​
1.26​
Grass
8-1 (89%)​
4-2 (67%)​
7.8%​
63.3%​
74.1%​
56.4%​
85.1%​
67.6%​
30.6%​
40.0%​
53.7%​
1.23​
Grand Slams
19-2 (90%)​
9-2 (82%)​
6.2%​
65.5%​
71.9%​
57.2%​
83.2%​
66.8%​
33.3%​
42.5%​
54.2%​
1.28​
vs Top 10
12-5 (71%)​
6-5 (55%)​
4.5%​
65.3%​
71.4%​
54.4%​
83.1%​
65.5%​
24.4%​
38.1%​
51.4%​
1.10​
Best of 3
35-11 (76%)​
9-11 (45%)​
6.3%​
65.5%​
75.0%​
58.1%​
89.3%​
69.2%​
29.0%​
40.9%​
54.2%​
1.33​
Best of 5
19-2 (90%)​
9-2 (82%)​
6.2%​
65.5%​
71.9%​
57.2%​
83.2%​
66.8%​
33.3%​
42.5%​
54.2%​
1.28​
hide yearly totalshide splits
2024
54-13 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
6.3%​
65.5%​
73.6%​
57.7%​
86.7%​
68.1%​
30.9%​
41.6%​
54.2%​
1.31​
2023
65-12 (84%)​
19-9 (68%)​
5.4%​
65.7%​
72.2%​
56.3%​
85.4%​
66.8%​
30.9%​
42.0%​
53.9%​
1.26​
2022
57-13 (81%)​
22-15 (59%)​
4.6%​
66.0%​
71.9%​
55.5%​
84.7%​
66.3%​
30.6%​
41.4%​
53.3%​
1.23​
2021
48-19 (72%)​
14-12 (54%)​
3.9%​
63.5%​
68.6%​
53.8%​
77.5%​
63.2%​
33.2%​
42.0%​
52.4%​
1.14​
2020
39-7 (85%)​
13-2 (87%)​
1.4%​
68.7%​
63.4%​
52.6%​
74.3%​
60.0%​
34.0%​
43.9%​
51.9%​
1.10​
2019
18-10 (64%)​
8-2 (80%)​
1.6%​
69.5%​
58.7%​
54.5%​
68.4%​
57.5%​
30.1%​
42.0%​
50.0%​
0.99​
2018
2-1 (67%)​
2-0 (100%)​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
Career
283-75 (79%)​
96-53 (64%)​
4.5%​
65.8%​
70.1%​
55.5%​
82.1%​
65.1%​
31.5%​
42.0%​
53.2%​
1.20​
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Season with over 55% total point won in the last two decades have been achieved only in (very) strong big 3 seasons, a dominance ration over 1.40 is even rarer. Interestingly Sinner won a higher percentage of points on clay and grass than his great younger rival but only got one 500 title for it, also due to referee in MC.

91.5% hold percentage is dominant and while he breaks often he did less so this year despite a higher return point % won.

JANNIK SINNER

TOTALSMatchTiebreakAce%1stIn1st%2nd%Hld%SPWBrk%RPWTPWDR
Hard
53-3 (95%)​
15-3 (83%)​
10.4%​
60.8%​
79.0%​
58.9%​
92.1%​
71.1%​
29.9%​
41.5%​
55.7%​
1.44​
Clay
11-2 (85%)​
1-1 (50%)​
5.7%​
62.0%​
78.8%​
54.3%​
88.1%​
69.5%​
32.6%​
42.9%​
55.5%​
1.40​
Grass
9-1 (90%)​
9-4 (69%)​
12.1%​
64.5%​
81.4%​
57.1%​
92.7%​
72.8%​
17.4%​
36.3%​
53.5%​
1.33​
Grand Slams
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
vs Top 10
18-5 (78%)​
9-4 (69%)​
9.7%​
60.1%​
77.8%​
57.0%​
88.9%​
69.5%​
22.1%​
38.2%​
53.4%​
1.25​
vs Righties
67-6 (92%)​
21-8 (72%)​
10.0%​
61.3%​
79.4%​
57.5%​
91.5%​
70.9%​
28.2%​
40.7%​
55.1%​
1.40​
vs Lefties
6-0 (100%)​
4-0 (100%)​
8.3%​
65.7%​
78.8%​
62.0%​
90.9%​
73.0%​
29.9%​
42.4%​
56.8%​
1.57​
Best of 3
50-4 (93%)​
15-6 (71%)​
10.5%​
62.3%​
79.9%​
58.8%​
92.7%​
71.9%​
26.7%​
40.0%​
55.2%​
1.42​
Best of 5
23-2 (92%)​
10-2 (83%)​
9.1%​
60.5%​
78.5%​
56.5%​
89.7%​
69.9%​
30.7%​
42.2%​
55.4%​
1.40​
hide yearly totalshide splits
2024
73-6 (92%)​
25-8 (76%)​
9.9%​
61.6%​
79.3%​
57.8%​
91.5%​
71.1%​
28.3%​
40.9%​
55.3%​
1.41​
2023
64-15 (81%)​
18-13 (58%)​
8.2%​
59.8%​
76.0%​
56.1%​
87.3%​
68.0%​
28.6%​
40.6%​
53.9%​
1.27​
2022
47-16 (75%)​
16-7 (70%)​
7.6%​
58.4%​
74.5%​
53.4%​
83.4%​
65.7%​
26.5%​
39.9%​
52.6%​
1.16​
2021
49-22 (69%)​
22-14 (61%)​
5.9%​
59.9%​
71.1%​
54.4%​
81.0%​
64.4%​
27.0%​
39.9%​
52.0%​
1.12​
2020
20-14 (59%)​
7-6 (54%)​
4.4%​
60.7%​
71.5%​
49.5%​
79.1%​
62.8%​
27.8%​
40.6%​
51.7%​
1.09​
2019
61-23 (73%)​
15-12 (56%)​
7.4%​
57.5%​
72.3%​
52.6%​
78.8%​
63.9%​
30.4%​
41.0%​
52.1%​
1.14​
2018
16-17 (48%)​
5-5 (50%)​
5.3%​
55.6%​
66.3%​
44.7%​
63.1%​
56.7%​
22.9%​
36.1%​
46.8%​
0.83​
Career
330-113 (74%)​
108-65 (62%)​
7.5%​
59.6%​
74.4%​
54.3%​
84.0%​
66.3%​
28.0%​
40.4%​
53.0%​
1.20​
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Ranked according to net frequency. Should surprise some to see Shelton, Michelson and Djokovic more often at the net than Alcaraz. Alex looking good there but against weaker opposition with a smaller sample. Carlos combines high frequency with outstanding success, while Sinner is even more efficient but goes there markedly less than other young players.

Novak is most efficient with his SnV and does it at a good clip. Jannik does it rarely and worse with Carlos being in between.

Carlitos is indeed the king of drop shots among the youngsters, doing it five times more than De Minaur but almost with the same success. Interesting to see the Czech guys so low, even Korda following the rend. Jan looking pretty pedestrian there. Growing up on clay seems to help a lot.

YOUTHFUL TACTICS of 2004 (plus a GOAT)

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
Matches​
SnV Freq​
SnV W%​
Net Freq​
Net W%​
Drop Freq​
Drop Wnr%​
16​
14.4%​
72.0%​
15.2%​
62.6%​
1.9%​
22.7%​
13​
2.0%​
76.2%​
14.4%​
70.2%​
1.8%​
25.4%​
41​
5.6%​
79.2%​
14.4%​
70.9%​
2.2%​
29.8%​
17​
5.0%​
61.2%​
13.9%​
65.2%​
2.8%​
27.1%​
49​
6.9%​
72.4%​
13.0%​
72.4%​
2.9%​
39.0%​
17​
6.0%​
64.6%​
11.9%​
65.8%​
1.2%​
26.4%​
27​
0.9%​
70.6%​
11.3%​
71.3%​
0.7%​
40.3%​
17​
4.9%​
74.1%​
11.1%​
68.1%​
0.9%​
20.6%​
13​
5.8%​
77.8%​
11.1%​
70.7%​
2.4%​
28.2%​
11​
2.8%​
78.6%​
10.3%​
68.8%​
1.4%​
20.4%​
33​
2.8%​
74.4%​
10.0%​
68.5%​
2.3%​
36.4%​
65​
2.3%​
74.1%​
9.8%​
74.6%​
1.4%​
31.4%​
 
Last edited:

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Carlos standing out with his aggression and winner percentage from his forehand wing, compounded by the fewer easy points from the serve. Jannik stands out for a being markedly less aggressive but still scoring remarkably high percentages. Nole's and Lolo's backhand winners really stand out, partly because they are less likely to attack inside-out. This goes the other way around too.

There are a tradeoffs between those percentages and strokes. In case of the FH IO and BH Winner % those are easy to understand. The guys called Alex are doing remarkably little damage inside-out. Lefties are rarely going for BH DTL winners for obvious reasons.

STRIKING WINNERS 2024

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
Matches​
FH Wnr%​
FH DTL Wnr%​
FH IO Wnr%​
BH Wnr%​
BH DTL Wnr%​
RallyAgg​
ReturnAgg​
49​
19.3%​
26.1%​
17.5%​
8.1%​
24.2%​
3​
-2​
17​
18.3%​
27.2%​
21.6%​
7.8%​
25.8%​
26​
15​
16​
17.0%​
20.3%​
15.0%​
7.1%​
13.6%​
20​
38​
65​
15.4%​
19.9%​
16.2%​
8.3%​
27.0%​
-34​
-19​
17​
15.2%​
17.5%​
13.8%​
8.3%​
25.6%​
2​
-1​
13​
14.3%​
19.2%​
2.9%​
8.9%​
25.0%​
-15​
-14​
13​
13.3%​
18.3%​
12.5%​
8.1%​
14.9%​
-41​
-21​
41​
13.2%​
15.9%​
13.3%​
9.5%​
23.8%​
-44​
-27​
33​
13.0%​
17.8%​
11.0%​
9.9%​
23.7%​
-62​
-58​
27​
11.8%​
14.1%​
6.6%​
5.5%​
16.6%​
-75​
-67​
11​
11.0%​
15.1%​
20.0%​
7.4%​
22.2%​
-21​
1​
 
Last edited:

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
TACTICS and RALLYS 2024

More to come...

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
SnV Freq​
SnV W%​
Net Freq​
Net W%​
FH Wnr%​
FH DTL Wnr%​
FH IO Wnr%​
BH Wnr%​
BH DTL Wnr%​
Drop Freq​
Drop Wnr%​
RallyAgg​
ReturnAgg​
5.6%​
79.2%​
14.4%​
70.9%​
13.2%​
15.9%​
13.3%​
9.5%​
23.8%​
2.2%​
29.8%​
-44​
-27​
6.9%​
72.4%​
13.0%​
72.4%​
19.3%​
26.1%​
17.5%​
8.1%​
24.2%​
2.9%​
39.0%​
3​
-2​
2.3%​
74.1%​
9.8%​
74.6%​
15.4%​
19.9%​
16.2%​
8.3%​
27.0%​
1.4%​
31.4%​
-34​
-19​


Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
RallyLen​
RLen-Serve​
RLen-Return​
1-3 W%​
4-6 W%​
7-9 W%​
10+ W%​
FH/GS​
BH Slice%​
FHP/Match​
BHP/Match​
4.3​
4.2​
4.4​
54.4%​
57.2%​
54.4%​
56.5%​
51.2%​
7.3%​
12.9​
6.2​
4.6​
4.3​
4.8​
54.4%​
56.0%​
54.0%​
52.7%​
49.4%​
15.3%​
12.6​
7.9​
4.0​
4.0​
4.1​
52.7%​
55.7%​
54.3%​
57.4%​
52.9%​
17.9%​
12.4​
2.6​
 
Last edited:

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
SERVE and RETURN 2024

Alcaraz is really distinct with his return winner % against the first serve, truly going for it and also using the slice far less than Sinner and Djokovic. Influenced by using more often a deeper return position? Outstanding by Carlos in any case and I have to look at surface splits.

Strange to see a possible weakness against the second serve by Alcaraz compared to Sinner. Both sides would be very worthwhile of a deep tactical analysis for top players.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
RiP%​
RiP W%​
RetWnr%​
Wnr FH%​
RDI​
Slice%​
1st: RiP%​
RiP W%​
RetWnr%​
RDI​
Slice%​
2nd: RiP%​
RiP W%​
RetWnr%​
RDI​
Slice%​
71.4%​
53.5%​
4.2%​
53.5%​
2.27​
10.1%​
70.4%​
48.4%​
4.3%​
2.25​
14.6%​
81.2%​
62.0%​
4.5%​
2.31​
2.5%​
71.3%​
52.8%​
3.0%​
55.2%​
2.19​
16.1%​
66.4%​
48.2%​
1.7%​
2.10​
26.0%​
88.1%​
59.4%​
5.7%​
2.28​
4.4%​
72.8%​
52.3%​
3.2%​
60.0%​
2.20​
15.4%​
69.0%​
48.5%​
1.6%​
2.14​
24.0%​
87.5%​
57.8%​
6.3%​
2.28​
2.6%​


Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
Unret%​
<=3 W%​
RiP W%​
SvImpact​
1st: Unret%​
<=3 W%​
RiP W%​
SvImpact​
D Wide%​
A Wide%​
BP Wide%​
2nd: Unret%​
<=3 W%​
RiP W%​
D Wide%​
A Wide%​
BP Wide%​
2ndAgg​
29.4%​
41.3%​
57.4%​
37.0%​
36.3%​
50.9%​
61.2%​
48.3%​
49.5%​
49.1%​
51.5%​
18.8%​
26.6%​
51.6%​
46.4%​
34.3%​
23.6%​
46​
27.0%​
41.1%​
57.0%​
35.5%​
32.3%​
49.3%​
59.3%​
45.2%​
49.4%​
50.1%​
49.1%​
18.2%​
27.5%​
53.1%​
23.4%​
59.7%​
59.4%​
33​
31.5%​
43.6%​
59.2%​
38.3%​
41.5%​
57.1%​
63.9%​
52.7%​
48.1%​
53.6%​
50.8%​
17.2%​
24.4%​
53.7%​
21.4%​
37.1%​
31.4%​
19​
 
Last edited:

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
TACTICS and RALLYS 2024

More to come...

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
SnV Freq​
SnV W%​
Net Freq​
Net W%​
FH Wnr%​
FH DTL Wnr%​
FH IO Wnr%​
BH Wnr%​
BH DTL Wnr%​
Drop Freq​
Drop Wnr%​
RallyAgg​
ReturnAgg​
5.6%​
79.2%​
14.4%​
70.9%​
13.2%​
15.9%​
13.3%​
9.5%​
23.8%​
2.2%​
29.8%​
-44​
-27​
6.9%​
72.4%​
13.0%​
72.4%​
19.3%​
26.1%​
17.5%​
8.1%​
24.2%​
2.9%​
39.0%​
3​
-2​
2.3%​
74.1%​
9.8%​
74.6%​
15.4%​
19.9%​
16.2%​
8.3%​
27.0%​
1.4%​
31.4%​
-34​
-19​


Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-25
Player​
RallyLen​
RLen-Serve​
RLen-Return​
1-3 W%​
4-6 W%​
7-9 W%​
10+ W%​
FH/GS​
BH Slice%​
FHP/Match​
BHP/Match​
4.3​
4.2​
4.4​
54.4%​
57.2%​
54.4%​
56.5%​
51.2%​
7.3%​
12.9​
6.2​
4.6​
4.3​
4.8​
54.4%​
56.0%​
54.0%​
52.7%​
49.4%​
15.3%​
12.6​
7.9​
4.0​
4.0​
4.1​
52.7%​
55.7%​
54.3%​
57.4%​
52.9%​
17.9%​
12.4​
2.6​
Although Djokovic backhand potency is higher than sinner he doesn't like the bh to bh exchange vs Jannik and would do almost anything to avoid it


Next year we would look at how threatening Djokovic's fh dtl be to attack sinner bh. Almost given hope with bh to bh exchange.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Although Djokovic backhand potency is higher than sinner he doesn't like the bh to bh exchange vs Jannik and would do almost anything to avoid it

Next year we would look at how threatening Djokovic's fh dtl be to attack sinner bh. Almost given hope with bh to bh exchange.

Djokovic has more compact strokes but flatter shots which makes it easier to redirect but harder to punch through a defense without risking a lot. He has tried to amp up the weight of shot but it cost him many errors against Sinner in Australia. In Shanghai Novak struck a better balance but could not overcome the much younger man playing a lot of his trademark game.

It can be done, especially on faster surfaces, but it just has become much harder against Jannik.

How do you explain that stark contrast between the return vs first serve stats of Nole/Jan and Charlie?
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Here we have the 3 year performance of the top players, sorted by TPW% against the top 50. We have roughly three tiers. Djokovic was obvioulsy outstanding, with Sinneraz following ahead of the trio Meddy, Zverev, Ruud and Fritz. The rest is basically too close to call. Draper being a bit of a surpise there but also too few matches.

Basic stat tier list:

I
Djokovic
II Sinneraz
III Meddy, Zverev, Ruud and Fritz


Fritz finally making it into a big final was not surprising at all if you look at the stats, was pretty much due. Interesting to see Sinner winning a lot more tiebreaks but Alcaraz still taking considerably more sets. Djokovic playing so many tiebreaks and winning almost 4/5 is crazy.


RkPlayer
M​
DR​
TPW%​
TB W%​
TB/S​
Sets​
S W%​
G W%​
7Novak Djokovic [SRB]
109
1.27​
53.9%​
79.4%​
21.1%​
299​
74.2%​
56.6%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
132
1.21​
53.0%​
61.7%​
17.0%​
353​
68.8%​
55.9%​
3Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]
147
1.20​
52.9%​
56.4%​
19.8%​
393​
71.5%​
56.3%​
5Daniil Medvedev [RUS]
149
1.12​
51.9%​
60.9%​
18.2%​
379​
62.8%​
53.7%​
2Alexander Zverev [GER]
125
1.12​
51.7%​
48.5%​
20.3%​
335​
59.7%​
53.1%​
6Casper Ruud [NOR]
120
1.10​
51.6%​
62.5%​
17.9%​
313​
60.4%​
53.1%​
4Taylor Fritz [USA]
124
1.10​
51.6%​
53.6%​
21.0%​
329​
58.1%​
52.8%​
 
Last edited:

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
The category 'top 10' has a very long tradition in tennis. Only three players clearly outscored the others. Incredible tiebreak numbers again by Novak, beside the raw superiority. Carlos winning a lot more sets than Jannik despite scoring overall lower continues to fascinate. Maybe the physical edge?

RkPlayer
M​
DR​
TPW%​
TBs​
TB W%​
TB/S​
S W%​
G W%​
7Novak Djokovic [SRB]
42
1.16​
52.4%​
34​
73.5%​
29.6%​
67.0%​
53.4%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
54
1.10​
51.5%​
31​
54.8%​
20.0%​
58.7%​
52.8%​
3Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]
48
1.10​
51.3%​
28​
53.6%​
20.6%​
62.5%​
52.6%​
 
Last edited:

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
The category 'top 10' has a very long tradition in tennis. Only three players clearly outscored the others. Incredible tiebreak numbers again by Novak, beside the raw superiority. Carlos winning a lot more sets than Jannik despite scoring overall lower continues to fascinate. Maybe the physical edge?

RkPlayer
M​
DR​
TPW%​
TBs​
TB W%​
TB/S​
S W%​
G W%​
7Novak Djokovic [SRB]
42
1.16​
52.4%​
34​
73.5%​
29.6%​
67.0%​
53.4%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
54
1.10​
51.5%​
31​
54.8%​
20.0%​
58.7%​
52.8%​
3Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]
48
1.10​
51.3%​
28​
53.6%​
20.6%​
62.5%​
52.6%​
This is incredible that Carlos is making somewhat similar numbers to Djokovic 2022-24 from BOTH sides.

From Djokovic side, he is still so dominant from ages 34 to 37, probably unheard of in last 50 years including all things Fed accomplished.

From Carlos side, he is already so dominant from ages 18 to 21, probably unheard of in last 30 years including all things Nadal/Hewitt/Others accomplished.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
This is incredible that Carlos is making somewhat similar numbers to Djokovic 2022-24 from BOTH sides.

From Djokovic side, he is still so dominant from ages 34 to 37, probably unheard of in last 50 years including all things Fed accomplished.

From Carlos side, he is already so dominant from ages 18 to 21, probably unheard of in last 30 years including all things Nadal/Hewitt/Others accomplished.

Indeed. The table changes also a lot when you look at their performance against the top 5. Now Novak and Carlos break away from Jannik, which had clear matchup problems in the first 1-2 years. Surprisingly Carlos won clearly the most games. How do we explain that?

RkPlayer
M​
DR​
TPW%​
TB W%​
TB/S​
Sets​
S W%​
G W%​
7Novak Djokovic [SRB]
22
1.13​
51.9%​
72.7%​
34.9%​
63​
61.9%​
51.6%​
3Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]
27
1.10​
51.5%​
37.5%​
19.8%​
81​
61.7%​
53.8%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
37
1.05​
50.8%​
56.0%​
22.7%​
110​
55.5%​
51.5%​
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Indeed. The table changes also a lot when you look at their performance against the top 5. Now Novak and Carlos break away from Jannik, which had clear matchup problems in the first 1-2 years. Surprisingly Carlos won clearly the most games. How do we explain that?

RkPlayer
M​
DR​
TPW%​
TB W%​
TB/S​
Sets​
S W%​
G W%​
7Novak Djokovic [SRB]
22
1.13​
51.9%​
72.7%​
34.9%​
63​
61.9%​
51.6%​
3Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]
27
1.10​
51.5%​
37.5%​
19.8%​
81​
61.7%​
53.8%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
37
1.05​
50.8%​
56.0%​
22.7%​
110​
55.5%​
51.5%​
I did a thread on this just yesterday, most pts won, most games won and most matches won.

Carlos has most games won because he bulldozes people when he wins. His 2023 clay tour till Wimbledon final was probably among the highest peaks we have seen. Just ruthlessly crushing big names. That 3,3,3 win vs Medvedev on grass is probably highlight of his career.

But Carlos has just 27 matches as compared to Jannik who played 37. He skipped ATP finals in 2022 and AO in 2023 where the games won would have been far worse and played great vs Tsitsipas who was top 5. Not true reflection of his overall dominance but last year he was crazy good post AO. I think 3 matches lost between Bunas Aires or some 250 till Wimbledon win.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
But Carlos has just 27 matches as compared to Jannik who played 37. He skipped ATP finals in 2022 and AO in 2023 where the games won would have been far worse and played great vs Tsitsipas who was top 5. Not true reflection of his overall dominance but last year he was crazy good post AO. I think 3 matches lost between Bunas Aires or some 250 till Wimbledon win.

I tend to agree, Jannik really switched the script from 2022 to 2024 while Carlos could beat anybody almost from the go. Crazy to think back.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
What is the correct measure of a stroke effectiveness.
Forehand/Backhand Potency numbers of Forehand/Backhand potency numbers per 100 shots hit?
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
What is the correct measure of a stroke effectiveness.
Forehand/Backhand Potency numbers of Forehand/Backhand potency numbers per 100 shots hit?

There is no one single correct measure in my opinion. I might write once something deeper about the topic because it can be very nuanced. In short, both are very valuable because:

1) They are simple and logical calculations based on a large set of widely accepted data stretching deeply into the tennis past. A bit hard to get hawk-eye data for Borg.

2) There seems to be some correlation with the sophisticated Tennis Insight algorithm based on said camera data.

3) They often fit our perception of the top players well, passing our eye test.

4) We have more questions to ask.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
(Very) small sample size, but like in early 2024 Sinneraz lead again in TPW and DR. Alex De Minaur did very well against players not called Jannik.

RkPlayer
M​
DR​
Points​
TPW%​
TB/S​
S W%​
G W%​
1Jannik Sinner [ITA]
7
1.59​
1351​
56.8%​
17.4%​
91.3%​
62.6%​
3Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]
5
1.41​
925​
55.8%​
6.3%​
75.0%​
62.8%​
8Alex De Minaur [AUS]
7
1.32​
1140​
54.8%​
10.0%​
80.0%​
60.2%​
2Alexander Zverev [GER]
9
1.36​
1479​
54.7%​
15.4%​
76.9%​
58.4%​
6Novak Djokovic [SRB]
9
1.30​
1510​
54.4%​
16.0%​
76.0%​
59.4%​
9Tommy Paul [USA]
8
1.28​
1623​
54.3%​
22.2%​
66.7%​
61.0%​
24Jiri Lehecka [CZE]
9
1.30​
1241​
54.1%​
14.3%​
76.2%​
58.7%​
4Taylor Fritz [USA]
8
1.27​
1280​
53.5%​
13.6%​
68.2%​
58.0%​
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
@Rovesciarete

How do you explain that the current Sinner in percentage points wins over 10% less return games than the peak Djokovic?

Okay, the gap is so big that it is certainly clear that peak Djokovic was a superior player in return games compared to Sinner.
But a difference of over 10 percentage points seems excessive to me considering that in terms of return quality Sinner is not that far from the best Djokovic.

What is the cause?
 

GRASScaraz

Hall of Fame
@Rovesciarete

How do you explain that the current Sinner in percentage points wins over 10% less return games than the peak Djokovic?

Okay, the gap is so big that it is certainly clear that peak Djokovic was a superior player in return games compared to Sinner.
But a difference of over 10 percentage points seems excessive to me considering that in terms of return quality Sinner is not that far from the best Djokovic.

What is the cause?
Djokovic. Played on slower hard courts and the servers weren't as good
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
@Rovesciarete

How do you explain that the current Sinner in percentage points wins over 10% less return games than the peak Djokovic?

Okay, the gap is so big that it is certainly clear that peak Djokovic was a superior player in return games compared to Sinner.
But a difference of over 10 percentage points seems excessive to me considering that in terms of return quality Sinner is not that far from the best Djokovic.

What is the cause?

Have to check the data. Most people don't know that the serve win percentages have gone quite steadily up in the last two decades and thus the return points won have gone down.

Novak himself has shaped that trend, becoming a fantastic serve plus player.
 
Last edited:

Wooly

Rookie
That's because he majority of the fans of the Big-Three has left. That represents dozens of millions of people. Do you really think the biggest Nadal and Federer fans are still following this sport with the same passion? Most of them aren't even watching anymore. Djokovic fans will follow very soon. People who find Sinner/Alcaraz exciting are either frustrated Nadal/Djokovic/Federer detractors or brand new viewers who weren't old enough to follow the era of the Big-3. I like Sinner/Alcaraz just fine but I would never compare them to the Big-Three, that's insulting to me.

The Problem is that you are not a Tennis Fan, but a Fan of the Big3. I would assume 99% of Federer/Nadal/Djokovic are sad that there Era is gone, but as Tennis fans, they find new Players and follow Tennis as they always did ... the 1% Die Hard moronic "Fans" that also pestet this Forum for so long are not really missed ... especially in this Forum ... so the question is, why are you still here ???
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
@Rovesciarete

How do you explain that the current Sinner in percentage points wins over 10% less return games than the peak Djokovic?

What is the cause?

Novak was superb but nowadays the meta has changed.

Players serve better and go bigger earlier. This helps also against the very best as you roll the dice instead of going down for sure.

Soederling against Nadal was an excellent exception, just as Nalbandian in the altitude…

Lots of players have noticed that strategy trend, from Ruud to Zverev.
 
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