A look at Serena Williams' possible path to true Grand Slam

[Djokovic2011]

If by questioning that you are also suggesting they are no threat, well...

Kvitova played very well against Caroline yesterday. She seemed more focused than at any other time/event this year. Not a bad way to go into the last major of the year (while acknowledging her terrible USO history).

Sharapova does not really need to win anything to be prepared for the USO, as I do not see an upset with her during week 1.

Caroline also stepped up her HC game, appearing to recapture her newfound aggression from 2014. She does not wish to leave the sport witohut at least one major, and being a runner-up gave her a taste she cannot forget.

So who do you think is gonna win the tournament TV?

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

So who do you think is gonna win the tournament TV?

Months ago, I said someone new will win. I still lean in that direction, but if Kvitova plays somewhere around 70% of the way she did vs. Caroline (yesterday), she has the chance to erase her bad history at the USO.

Sharapova's 1st RD match might give some indication about her chances / motivation, etc.

 

[TMF]

Kvitova, Wozniacki did not even win 1 HC match this USO series till this week. I guess the same is with Sharapova.

That is 3 of the top 5 ?

Plus Kvitova diagnosed with mono so I don't think she's not going far into the tournament.

 

[Soianka]

Just looking at some old wta matches. Some of them are way worse than I remembered. The Maleeva's were the usual top tenner, Evert clone types for their day. No power, no speed, puff ballers who would usually moon ball their way out of trouble. Nothing to do with racquet tech, tbh, they were just really really bad. I don't think they are even ITF level today. An Alize Lim would have them for breakfuss. 80's were full of these Evert clones who copied the way she played. Except none of them had Evert's accuracy or mentality or her actual qualities. Only Graf and Seles had real power and real weapons. typical of any top 50 player today, who can hit the ball hard and knock an opponent off the court with baseline winners; Graf was fast, in Seles' case two winged ball striking. Young Seles played very different from her post stabbing career when she became big and fat and clumsy, in her best years she was small, skinny, and was therefore very quick and maneuverable around the court to cover the ball even if she didn't have Graf's absolute top 1% speed. Only Venus is as fast as Graf.

Those three Maleeva's combined are a staggering 1-51 !!! against Seles/Graf. The one only loss to either was - the stabbing. That was Maggie Maleeva getting her one win over Seles. ( a thought what would the Maleeva's h2h have looked like against Graf/Seles no stabbing? Another 20 losses to Seles alone?)

Now put those three moonballing dweebs next to the Amazonian types of today, never mind multislam champs Pova/Tova/Renka, or even the bombs of the Pliskova's the Safarova's, the bombers two levels down in the rankings from those will still wipe them out.

If Serena's competition were really weak, why aren't Hingis/Henin/Clijsters who are younger and peers of Serena still at the top today? Why isn't Davenport not still playing? Why isn't Venus no 1? If a new generation were not coming up and constantly displacing old players, Serena's peers of the 2000's would obviously still be at the top. They had the same opportunities as Serena. Health management is part of pro tennis. If you tried too hard like Henin to keep up and wear out your body quickly, that isn't Serena's problem.

brilliant post

 

[mattosgrant]

In 1987-1990 both were in or close to their peaks. Navratilova only started to make a name for herself when she was in her mid 20's. I mean she even played a Wimbledon final at the age of 38. Definitely a late bloomer.

The main difference between the ATP and WTA is that the men's game is way more physical. That's why men tend to have 7-9 prime years while women can go longer. Evert, Navratilova, Graf, Serena, Court - ALL of them were capable of winning majors for a decade and a half.

Martina was at her 82-86 level in 88-90? This is news to me. Yeah Navratilova was a late bloomer but her prime is generally seen as 78-87 and Graf's 88-96. No they were anything but parallel. Being a late bloomer does not compensate a 13 year age gap. You say Federer and Nadal didnt follow parallel lines, I have seen you mention it in many threads (somewhat true) yet Federer and Nadal are only 5 (not 13) years apart, Federer a late bloomer, and Nadal an early one. So if even despite all that they didnt truly peak together or Nadal supposably has an age advantage, etc...then Graf and Navratilova 13 years apart certainly didnt, even with Martina being a late bloomer.

Yeah she made a Wimbledon final at 37 when the womens game was in a pathetic state after Seles was stabbed. She lost to Conchita Martinez, the poorest grass court player to ever win Wimbledon in the Open Era hands down (yes someone like Bartoli is clearly better than Martinez on grass, while Martinez is 10 times better on a surface like clay), who is someone who in her prime she would beat in 40 minutes or less on grass.

 

[mattosgrant]

What happened with Seles ? she won 9 majors right in the midst of Graf's career.

You are right, then got stabbed, and Graf promptly after winning 2 of the last 12 before that won the next 4 in a row, and 10 of the next 13 she played. Amazing isnt it.

ASV robbed Graf of clay titles

She robbed her of exactly 1 to be exact- 89 French Open. Where Graf can take blame for choking badly at the end of the 1st and 3rd sets.

Please throw light on how many majors Sharapova and Azarenka stopped Serena from winning.

So it is Serena's fault she doesnt let players like Sharapova and Azarenka take slams from her (apart from Wimbledon 04) while Graf lets someone like ASV who would be lucky to have 2 slams without the Seles stabbing, and is clearly only a true elite on clay, take slams from her? I mean I dont build up Stosur as this amazing player and the toughest competition ever just since she took 2 slams from Serena (although she is a good example of the amazing depth in the game today given that is the kind of player you often play in 3rd or 4th rounds of slams today, vs Judith Weisner or Amy Frazier back in the Graf days, and I couldnt even begin to name the level of player you would typically play in such rounds back in the Navratilova era).

It is a joke if someone argues that Serena has competition after 2008.

It is a joke to imply womens tennis is ever that deep and competitive. The only time it was is the 99-2007 period which means Serena atleast experienced it awhile, and none of these others ever did. Even today in a weaker time, it still has more depth than it had in the days of the 2 top players playing 80 times since almost everyone else sucked that badly.

 

[NLBwell]

She got a little bit of a break in that the two players capable of actually beating Serena (instead of Serena losing by playing poorly - which happens sometimes to everybody), Azarenka and Kvitova, both ended up in the other half of the draw. Given the ups and downs these players have had, there is a good chance she won't have to play either of them. Other than that, it's up to her not to lose it.
Pretty average draw in terms of difficulty - not easy, but not loaded up against her.
Keys and Ivanovic could be challenges, but they don't play well too much of the time.

 

[tennisaddict]

You are right, then got stabbed, and Graf promptly after winning 2 of the last 12 before that won the next 4 in a row, and 10 of the next 13 she played. Amazing isnt it.
She robbed her of exactly 1 to be exact- 89 French Open. Where Graf can take blame for choking badly at the end of the 1st and 3rd sets.

Graf won 22 majors and reached 9 more finals, in spite of another ATG Seles. ASV took out Graf both 89 and 91 FO, 92 and 94 USO.

So it is Serena's fault she doesnt let players like Sharapova and Azarenka take slams from her (apart from Wimbledon 04) while Graf lets someone like ASV who would be lucky to have 2 slams without the Seles stabbing, and is clearly only a true elite on clay, take slams from her? I mean I dont build up Stosur as this amazing player and the toughest competition ever just since she took 2 slams from Serena (although she is a good example of the amazing depth in the game today given that is the kind of player you often play in 3rd or 4th rounds of slams today, vs Judith Weisner or Amy Frazier back in the Graf days, and I couldnt even begin to name the level of player you would typically play in such rounds back in the Navratilova era).

Whom did we build up ? Seles, ASV ? Stosur same as Seles and ASV ? LOL. It matters diddly squat who the 3R and 4R opponents are in WTA , then and now. What matters are the SF/Finals ?

It is a joke to imply womens tennis is ever that deep and competitive. The only time it was is the 99-2007 period which means Serena atleast experienced it awhile, and none of these others ever did. Even today in a weaker time, it still has more depth than it had in the days of the 2 top players playing 80 times since almost everyone else sucked that badly.

A player ranked 20th displaying a better game now than in the 70's and 80's is immaterial.

 

[heftylefty]

Got to love hypocrisy.

Navratilova: late bloomer, prime after 30.
Serena: Weak Era. No one wins after 30.

 

[torpantennis]

I just so much wish we could see another Williams-Azarenka spectacle in the finals. Before that, nothing would beat clean double bageling of Pova in the semis!

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

Got to love hypocrisy.

Navratilova: late bloomer, prime after 30.
Serena: Weak Era. No one wins after 30.

Of course it's a hypocritical position. He's filled with rage with Serena's majors record already--which leaves Martina, Evert & Federer in the dust. Add the potential to win the Grand Slam, and he's trying to spin, cut and burn history to elevate inferior records. History does not see it that way. But history recognizes not-so-great competition in majors finals. For example, let's take a look at Evert's majors finals opponent list (often used as a "weapon" against Serena):

While some of her worst defenders trumpet her 18 majors and the weight of her competition, if you look at her majors finals opponents, they were not limited to Evonne, Hana and Martina, but included such underwhelming wonders such as Morozova, Turnbull, Ruzici, Jausovec,Sukova & Shriver--some more than one time in finals. Some need to seriously analyze finals opponents for Evert. Of course, they might itch to issue the old line, "you can only play who's on the other side of the net," as a defense, but that excuse is never extended to Serena. Ohhh, no. In order to find yet another doomed way to attack Serena, her competition becomes the subject (whether in finals or in career assessment) of the Grand Slam discussion.

Fine. If we look at the opponents with a career assessment, rather than the player at a specific point/match in time, then for Evert, if one eliminates the obvious Martina, other finals opponents Hana won 4 majors & Evonne won 7. The rest....isthe rest. What does that say about her competition? She met no-major Turnbull & Morozova 2 times each in majors finals--again both winning none of their own. Was it weak competition because no-slam wonders made it finals more than one time, but failed to reach the ultimate level? What about Morozova, Sukova, Shriver, Ruzici and Jausovec?

Does that sound like the battle of a lifetime against the cream of the crop? ...and if they are not, then the same criteria used against Serena must apply to players such as Evert (the evidence in undeniable) or Martina.

 

[tennisaddict]

All those who think there is great competition now - would you bet 3 of the top 5 to make USO QF ?

 

[70後]

I suggest a real weak unhealthy era is when the next tier down is not being pushed upwards by the next tier below and so on all the way down the line. A normal competitive era should be one of lower tiers of new young players constantly coming up, pushing and displacing older and higher tiers of players above, that is, continual state of renewal. Older players will get replaced by newer players, in the natural course of things. To partly quote another poster !Tym, newer players aren't necessarily better, what they are is fresher. I would look at what is happening in the middle of the rankings, not the top, to see if the mid ranked types are being pushed down and/or out as their careers approach that part of career trajectory. If exceptional older players like Serena or Federer are able to stay up there, it says way more about them than the total of the competition actually being "weak" or unhealthy. Serena isn't the same as she was in her physical peak say 2002 but she has optimised her game, is very smart about tactics, and has more than made up for anything she has lost, imo. In Fed's case some things certainly declined some, but then he also reinvented other parts to at least partly make up for the loss elsewhere. Nad hasn't been able to do this and is declining very rapidly. Serena and Fed deserve huge credit, whether you are a fan or not. What is impossible to understand is why some people would actually think they deserve derision for their remarkable efforts.

 

[MichaelNadal]

All those who think there is great competition now - would you bet 3 of the top 5 to make USO QF ?

Well not being able to be sure would entail competition more than solidarity, would it not?

 

[tennisaddict]

Well not being able to be sure would entail competition more than solidarity, would it not?

1 of 5 or 2 of 5 not making it may possibly signify that. But 3 of 5 not making it means it is hollow.

Like I said, Serena's chances skyrocket if there is the usual Sharapova / Wozniacki / Radwanska match ups on the other side.

 

[MichaelNadal]

She looks so fit right now, we might as well hand her the trophy lol.

 

[mattosgrant]

Graf won 22 majors and reached 9 more finals, in spite of another ATG Seles.

If Seles is an ATG then both Venus and Henin are as well. They have won nearly as many slams as Seles, and Henin was the best player 3 years vs only 2 years for Seles, while Seles is Venus's b1tch and has 0 Wimbledons to 5 for Venus at tennis's holy grail event.

More to the point though your comment is silly when Seles was stabbed, cleared from Graf's path for several years, and was never the same upon coming back. Yet you act like this is the Navratilova-Evert equivalent, and in fact pass over the stabbing if it were nothing. Now if you don't want to put any sort of asterisk beside Graf's numbers which are clearly bloated by the Seles stabbing than fine, but don't go talking about Seles as full out competition when she was taken out of the game after only a couple years of her prime.

ASV took out Graf both 89 and 91 FO, 92 and 94 USO.

That is Graf's problem. A player of ASV's level shouldn't be beating Graf so many times in slams and should NEVER beat Graf on a fast court like the U.S Open, let alone twice, the same way a player like Stosur shouldn't have beaten Serena twice in slams. Both are to blame for that. Lets look at some of Sanchez's other head to heads:

Seles: 3-17
Hingis (who has only 1 more slam than ASV which shows how gifted ASV's slam tally is by the timing of the Seles tragedy): 2-18
Navratilova (in her 30s and way past her prime most of these): 3-12

Graf allowed Sanchez to beat her more times at slams than other greats, lesser greats, of her own era did altogether.

She even has losing records vs many of the 1 slam winners of her era like Novotna and Sabatini.

Whom did we build up ? Seles, ASV ? Stosur same as Seles and ASV ? LOL.

I never said that. I said as an example I don't build Stosur up due doing surprisingly well vs Serena, just like you shouldnt try and build up ASV to a better player than she really is due to Graf's having more trouble with such an inferior mostly clay court specialist than she ever should have. Just like I don't build Amanda Coetzer (a much weaker player than Stosur) up since she was a nightmare opponent for Graf who beat her twice in slams, beat her 5 times, and once beat her 6-0, 6-1 in a match, and 6-1, 6-4 in a slam, and was 1 of her only 2 losses in one of her best years ever (95), etc...

It matters diddly squat who the 3R and 4R opponents are in WTA , then and now. What matters are the SF/Finals ?

Nonsense. If there are a lot of dangerous players who can beat anyone in the 3R and 4R, as there are today and there NEVER was in the depth-less eras of Navratilova, Evert, and Graf, it makes a huge difference. It makes it that much harder than 7 matches. Yeah in the days of Graf, Navratilova, and Evert, all that mattered was the SF and F since everyone until then pretty much sucked, you are absolutely right on that. That is how the womens game has changed drastically since then, and why Serena's numbers, especialy her slam wins, are even more impressive.



A player ranked 20th displaying a better game now than in the 70's and 80's is immaterial.[/QUOTE]

 

[tennisaddict]

If Seles is an ATG then both Venus and Henin are as well. They have won nearly as many slams as Seles, and Henin was the best player 3 years vs only 2 years for Seles, while Seles is Venus's b1tch and has 0 Wimbledons to 5 for Venus at tennis's holy grail event.

More to the point though your comment is silly when Seles was stabbed, cleared from Graf's path for several years, and was never the same upon coming back. Yet you act like this is the Navratilova-Evert equivalent, and in fact pass over the stabbing if it were nothing. Now if you don't want to put any sort of asterisk beside Graf's numbers which are clearly bloated by the Seles stabbing than fine, but don't go talking about Seles as full out competition when she was taken out of the game after only a couple years of her prime.



That is Graf's problem. A player of ASV's level shouldn't be beating Graf so many times in slams and should NEVER beat Graf on a fast court like the U.S Open, let alone twice, the same way a player like Stosur shouldn't have beaten Serena twice in slams. Both are to blame for that. Lets look at some of Sanchez's other head to heads:

Seles: 3-17
Hingis (who has only 1 more slam than ASV which shows how gifted ASV's slam tally is by the timing of the Seles tragedy): 2-18
Navratilova (in her 30s and way past her prime most of these): 3-12

Graf allowed Sanchez to beat her more times at slams than other greats, lesser greats, of her own era did altogether.

She even has losing records vs many of the 1 slam winners of her era like Novotna and Sabatini.



I never said that. I said as an example I don't build Stosur up due doing surprisingly well vs Serena, just like you shouldnt try and build up ASV to a better player than she really is due to Graf's having more trouble with such an inferior mostly clay court specialist than she ever should have. Just like I don't build Amanda Coetzer (a much weaker player than Stosur) up since she was a nightmare opponent for Graf who beat her twice in slams, beat her 5 times, and once beat her 6-0, 6-1 in a match, and 6-1, 6-4 in a slam, and was 1 of her only 2 losses in one of her best years ever (95), etc...



Nonsense. If there are a lot of dangerous players who can beat anyone in the 3R and 4R, as there are today and there NEVER was in the depth-less eras of Navratilova, Evert, and Graf, it makes a huge difference. It makes it that much harder than 7 matches. Yeah in the days of Graf, Navratilova, and Evert, all that mattered was the SF and F since everyone until then pretty much sucked, you are absolutely right on that. That is how the womens game has changed drastically since then, and why Serena's numbers, especialy her slam wins, are even more impressive.



A player ranked 20th displaying a better game now than in the 70's and 80's is immaterial.

[/QUOTE]

Why are you talking about Venus and Henin when we are talking about the period after 2008 , when Serena won more majors than she did before ?

Please talk strictly about the period after 2008. There is no asterisk as regards the first 10 majors Serena won.

What difference does the 3R and 4R opponent make ? Nothing. Martina and Graf blasted them in 40 minutes. Serena does the same or alternatively sleep through the first losing losing 4-6, but comes back to take the next two 6-2, 6-1.

There is no point in debating the extent of scar that was left on Seles after the stabbing. It was more mental than physical. Only Seles can tell whether it made an impact or not. But, the point remains there was great opponents all through Graf's career.

Graf reached 31 major finals, 6 more than Serena. She won several more titles and dominated the sport day in and day out. She was a regular on the tour, not unlike Serena who has a measly number of titles compared to Graf.

 

[tennis_pro]

Got to love hypocrisy.

Navratilova: late bloomer, prime after 30.
Serena: Weak Era. No one wins after 30.

Not prime. But she still played fantastic in 1986-1990 and basically continued to play well until retirement.

 

[Dedans Penthouse]

Kvitova diagnosed with mono so I don't think she's not going far into the tournament.

TMF diagnosed with stereo myopia​

 

[tennis_pro]

If Serena's competition were really weak, why aren't Hingis/Henin/Clijsters who are younger and peers of Serena still at the top today? Why isn't Davenport not still playing? Why isn't Venus no 1? If a new generation were not coming up and constantly displacing old players, Serena's peers of the 2000's would obviously still be at the top. They had the same opportunities as Serena. Health management is part of pro tennis. If you tried too hard like Henin to keep up and wear out your body quickly, that isn't Serena's problem.

This is the question of the era. The WTA sucking is one thing but Serena still being able to play so well at 34 is another. The breaks have obviously helped her tremendously and lengthened her career. The fact that she doesn't rely on her movement as much as, say, Henin or Clijsters also helped her big time.

Btw Clijsters, Henin, Davenport are old and fragile now. Believe me, they would all LOVE to be in their primes now, even with Serena around.